Crude oil Outlook
30 May 2008 11:21:18
Oil prices finished lower yesterday, despite an unexpected drop in US oil inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $126.57 ($130.82), after trading in the range $133.12 - $126.11.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the GulfCoast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.
Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $133.25 - $126.15 and closed at $126.81.
Weekly Technical Outlook
Expecting some correction if trades below 130.49. Supports are 128.30, 126.00; resistances are 133.22, 134.90. Otherwise likely to touch 137.97 and 140.88.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 128.50; bearish below 128.08
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, May 30, 2008
comex gold outlook
Gold Outlook
30 May 2008 11:15:50
Strength in the dollar and sharp fall in oil prices pulled down gold prices yesterday.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.70 - $873.05 and last quoted at $876.40 ($900.10).
An upward revision to first-quarter growth in the US helped the dollar to advance against the major counterparts. According to the data released by Commerce Department yesterday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also supported the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
But among data from the US Labor market, the initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, according to the Labor Department. However the four-week average of initial claims fell 2,500 to 370,500. Also continuing claims rose by 36,000 in the week ended May 17, reaching 3.10 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.06 million, up 18,000.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
Oil prices finished lower despite an unexpected drop in US oil inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $126.57 ($130.82), after trading in the range $133.12 - $126.11.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $905.30 – $878.00 and closed at $881.70 ($904.00).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 888.50; bearish below $ 884.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 11:15:50
Strength in the dollar and sharp fall in oil prices pulled down gold prices yesterday.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.70 - $873.05 and last quoted at $876.40 ($900.10).
An upward revision to first-quarter growth in the US helped the dollar to advance against the major counterparts. According to the data released by Commerce Department yesterday, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.
Better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders also supported the greenback. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
But among data from the US Labor market, the initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose modestly 4,000 to 372,000 in the week ended May 24, according to the Labor Department. However the four-week average of initial claims fell 2,500 to 370,500. Also continuing claims rose by 36,000 in the week ended May 17, reaching 3.10 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.06 million, up 18,000.
The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
Oil prices finished lower despite an unexpected drop in US oil inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $126.57 ($130.82), after trading in the range $133.12 - $126.11.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed an 8.8 million barrel drop in the nation’s crude supplies to 311.6 million, in the week ended May 23.
But according to the EIA, the drop in crude inventories was due to temporary delays in unloading oil tankers along the Gulf Coast, and not the result of increased demand.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $905.30 – $878.00 and closed at $881.70 ($904.00).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 888.50; bearish below $ 884.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
30 May 2008 11:01:52
Energy May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Crude oil fell more than $6 a barrel after the Energy Department said the biggest drop in U.S. oil inventories in more than three years was caused by ``temporary delays'' in unloading oil tankers on the Gulf Coast, Supplies declined 8.88 million barrels to 311.6 million last week, the biggest drop since Sept. 17, 2004, when Hurricane Ivan forced the closing of U.S. oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude prices have doubled over the past year due to long-term concerns that rising demand from the developing world could outstrip production increases, leading to a tighter market for oil, Worries about falling gasoline demand in the U.S. and a strengthening U.S. dollar also helped push down prices.
News of Supply disruptions in Nigeria, one of Africa's largest producers and a major U.S. supplier, has helped push oil prices higher over the past year. That contended Wednesday with the growing belief that U.S. demand for gasoline is falling as the average retail pump prices approaches $4 a gallon ($1.05 per liter). That belief was supported by two new surveys showing Americans consuming less gasoline
Nigeria's crude oil revenue fell 16 percent last year from the level in 2006 as sabotage by militants in the Niger Delta region hurt production, and the production in the west African country has fallen 20 percent since early 2006 when the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, began sabotaging the oil industry in an effort to gain political power and oil wealth for the impoverished area.
Natural gas futures fell after a U.S.government report showed inventories last week increased and The five-year average inventory increase for the week is 92 billion cubic feet,
Gas flow on the Independence Trail pipeline operated by Enterprise Products Partners LP in the Gulf of Mexico, shut April 9, may not resume service until June, a month later than planned, the company said May 14. At full production, the link accounts for 2 percent of U.S. gas supplies and 10 percent of Gulf deliveries,
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5480 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 499 Target 494 and 490 Stop loss at 503.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 11:01:52
Energy May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Crude oil fell more than $6 a barrel after the Energy Department said the biggest drop in U.S. oil inventories in more than three years was caused by ``temporary delays'' in unloading oil tankers on the Gulf Coast, Supplies declined 8.88 million barrels to 311.6 million last week, the biggest drop since Sept. 17, 2004, when Hurricane Ivan forced the closing of U.S. oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude prices have doubled over the past year due to long-term concerns that rising demand from the developing world could outstrip production increases, leading to a tighter market for oil, Worries about falling gasoline demand in the U.S. and a strengthening U.S. dollar also helped push down prices.
News of Supply disruptions in Nigeria, one of Africa's largest producers and a major U.S. supplier, has helped push oil prices higher over the past year. That contended Wednesday with the growing belief that U.S. demand for gasoline is falling as the average retail pump prices approaches $4 a gallon ($1.05 per liter). That belief was supported by two new surveys showing Americans consuming less gasoline
Nigeria's crude oil revenue fell 16 percent last year from the level in 2006 as sabotage by militants in the Niger Delta region hurt production, and the production in the west African country has fallen 20 percent since early 2006 when the militant group Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, began sabotaging the oil industry in an effort to gain political power and oil wealth for the impoverished area.
Natural gas futures fell after a U.S.government report showed inventories last week increased and The five-year average inventory increase for the week is 92 billion cubic feet,
Gas flow on the Independence Trail pipeline operated by Enterprise Products Partners LP in the Gulf of Mexico, shut April 9, may not resume service until June, a month later than planned, the company said May 14. At full production, the link accounts for 2 percent of U.S. gas supplies and 10 percent of Gulf deliveries,
MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 5285 if market breaches below 5285 may see prices to take further correction towards 5171 and 4969 However if it holds back above 5601 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 5803 and 5917
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5480 Target 5410 and 5340 Stoploss 5530
MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 509.00 levels. If market breaches 509.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.00 and 532.00 However if it holds back below 486.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 478.00 and 463.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 499 Target 494 and 490 Stop loss at 503.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Basemetals
30 May 2008 10:36:07
Base Metals May 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from a recession.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2.
Germany's Federal Employment Office said that the unemployment rate improved from 8.0% to 7.8% in May, the lowest in over 15 years.
Copper
Copper fell the most in four weeks as the dollar rallied, eroding the appeal of commodities as alternative investment.
The U.S. currency rose to the highest level in more than a week against the euro. Treasuries fell on speculation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise borrowing costs this year. Before today, copper rose 22 percent this year as the dollar fell 6.7 percent against the euro. Some investors buy copper to preserve value when the U.S. currency declines.
Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 600 metric tons, or 0.5 percent from yesterday, to 126,400 tons, the highest since March 13. Inventories have risen 14 percent this month.
BHP Billiton Ltd. may produce less copper in Chile because of power shortages, El Mercurio said, citing Diego Hernandez, president of base metals.
Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, said its output of the metal fell 5.6 percent in April from a year earlier. Production fell to 435,132 metric tons from 460,819 tons in April 2007, the state-run national statistics institute said today in a report distributed in Santiago.
The following table lists China's production of concentrates for copper, lead and zinc in April and for the first four months of this year.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 330.5 If market breaches below 330.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 325.8 and 317.5 However if it holds back above 343.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 351.9 and 356.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 327 SL 341.20
Nickel
London Metal Exchange nickel fell through a key support level to near a two-year low Thursday as base metals came under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices, a dollar rebound and limited trade interest at lower levels.
LME nickel fell to $22,300 a metric ton, down 24% this month, and at levels not seen since July 2006.
Nickel has fallen amid continued concern about lacklustre Chinese stainless demand, as well as large stockpiles of nickel concentrate in China.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was 18 MT to 48522 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 945 If market breaches below 945 may see prices to take further correction towards 934 and 915 However if it holds back above 975 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 994 and 1005
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 960 Target 945 and 930 SL 972
Zinc
Zinc slumped by the exchange-imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai on speculation demand may be slowing as global inventories climbed to a 20-month high.
Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 5.8 percent to 143,500 metric tons yesterday, the highest since September 2006. This is also the biggest gain since Jan. 7. Zinc inventories in Shanghai stood at 69,130 tons last week, 72 percent above a year ago.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 83.0 If market breaches below 83.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 80.9 and 76.8 However if it holds back above 89.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.4 and 95.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 86 Target 84 and 82 SL 87.20
Lead
LME 3-month lead unlikely to suffer more heavy selling short-term, although technical still look bad, MCX Lead June traded towards the low of 83 a kg.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1550 MT to 65125 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.5 If market breaches below 81.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 79.8 and 76.9 However if it holds back above 86.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 88.9 and 90.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 84 Target 81 and 79 SL 85.50
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium dropped below 122 following other metals at LME
Indian aluminium maker National Aluminium Company Co. Ltd. (532234.BY) Tuesday said net profit for the fiscal fourth quarter fell 30.6% on year. Net profit for the January-March period dropped to 4.09 billion rupees ($101.83 million) from INR5.90 billion.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 4875 MT to 1077175 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 119.5 If market breaches below 119.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 117.0 and 112.5 However if it holds back above 126.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 131.0 and 133.5
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Sell at 123 Target 121 and 119 SL 124.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 10:36:07
Base Metals May 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from a recession.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2.
Germany's Federal Employment Office said that the unemployment rate improved from 8.0% to 7.8% in May, the lowest in over 15 years.
Copper
Copper fell the most in four weeks as the dollar rallied, eroding the appeal of commodities as alternative investment.
The U.S. currency rose to the highest level in more than a week against the euro. Treasuries fell on speculation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise borrowing costs this year. Before today, copper rose 22 percent this year as the dollar fell 6.7 percent against the euro. Some investors buy copper to preserve value when the U.S. currency declines.
Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 600 metric tons, or 0.5 percent from yesterday, to 126,400 tons, the highest since March 13. Inventories have risen 14 percent this month.
BHP Billiton Ltd. may produce less copper in Chile because of power shortages, El Mercurio said, citing Diego Hernandez, president of base metals.
Chile, the world's biggest copper producer, said its output of the metal fell 5.6 percent in April from a year earlier. Production fell to 435,132 metric tons from 460,819 tons in April 2007, the state-run national statistics institute said today in a report distributed in Santiago.
The following table lists China's production of concentrates for copper, lead and zinc in April and for the first four months of this year.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 330.5 If market breaches below 330.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 325.8 and 317.5 However if it holds back above 343.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 351.9 and 356.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 338 Target 332 and 327 SL 341.20
Nickel
London Metal Exchange nickel fell through a key support level to near a two-year low Thursday as base metals came under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices, a dollar rebound and limited trade interest at lower levels.
LME nickel fell to $22,300 a metric ton, down 24% this month, and at levels not seen since July 2006.
Nickel has fallen amid continued concern about lacklustre Chinese stainless demand, as well as large stockpiles of nickel concentrate in China.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was 18 MT to 48522 MT
MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 945 If market breaches below 945 may see prices to take further correction towards 934 and 915 However if it holds back above 975 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 994 and 1005
Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 960 Target 945 and 930 SL 972
Zinc
Zinc slumped by the exchange-imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai on speculation demand may be slowing as global inventories climbed to a 20-month high.
Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose 5.8 percent to 143,500 metric tons yesterday, the highest since September 2006. This is also the biggest gain since Jan. 7. Zinc inventories in Shanghai stood at 69,130 tons last week, 72 percent above a year ago.
MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 83.0 If market breaches below 83.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 80.9 and 76.8 However if it holds back above 89.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.4 and 95.5
Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 86 Target 84 and 82 SL 87.20
Lead
LME 3-month lead unlikely to suffer more heavy selling short-term, although technical still look bad, MCX Lead June traded towards the low of 83 a kg.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1550 MT to 65125 MT
MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 81.5 If market breaches below 81.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 79.8 and 76.9 However if it holds back above 86.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 88.9 and 90.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 84 Target 81 and 79 SL 85.50
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium dropped below 122 following other metals at LME
Indian aluminium maker National Aluminium Company Co. Ltd. (532234.BY) Tuesday said net profit for the fiscal fourth quarter fell 30.6% on year. Net profit for the January-March period dropped to 4.09 billion rupees ($101.83 million) from INR5.90 billion.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 4875 MT to 1077175 MT
MCX Aluminium June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 119.5 If market breaches below 119.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 117.0 and 112.5 However if it holds back above 126.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 131.0 and 133.5
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium June: Sell at 123 Target 121 and 119 SL 124.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
30 May 2008 10:37:48
Bullion May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold tumbled the most in a month as the dollar rallied, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.
The dollar climbed as much as 0.6 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies on speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin to raise U.S. borrowing costs this year to curb inflation. Crude oil erased an earlier decline after U.S. fuel inventories dropped
European central bankers have expressed ``personal opinions'' to renew an agreement to limit annual gold sales, they agreed to limit their gold sales to 500 metric tons a year through September 2009. The banks probably won't announce their plans until early next year,
Seven interest-rate cuts since September helped send the dollar to an all-time low against the euro and gold to a record, The federal funds rate is at 2 percent, down from 5.25 percent when the Fed began cutting rates in September to blunt the effects of a housing slump and a credit crisis that threatened to push the economy into a recession.
Mining companies may reduce their forward sales by a total of about 10 million ounces this year, GFMS said. They cut a record 14.3 million ounces last year; Gold averaged $923.82 an ounce in the first quarter, compared with $789.31 in the fourth quarter. Miners can agree to sell future production at current prices to protect against losses caused by sudden declines, a strategy known as hedging
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, raised to a record $548.1 billion last week, the central bank said, the value of reserves increased by $7.3 billion in the week ended May 23, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves gained $4 billion in the previous week.
ETF Securities Ltd. said its assets in precious metals reached $2 billion after one year, mostly in gold and platinum, The ETFS Physical Gold exchange-traded fund holds 1.1 million ounces worth more than $1 billion, while ETFS Physical Platinum has 360,000 ounces worth more than $776 million, ETFS Physical Silver has 9.6 million ounces worth about $175 million and ETFS Physical Palladium attracted 199,000 ounces of investor demand worth more than $90 million. The funds started trading on April 23 last year
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from recession. The June U.S. T-bonds are steady to lower.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected. The March eurodollars are lower
Currencies update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11941 If market breaches below 11941 may see prices to take further correction towards 11782 and 11531 However if it holds back above 12351 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12602 and 12761
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12145 Target 12020 and 19890 Stoploss at 12195
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22549 If market breaches below 22549 may see prices to take further correction towards 22007 and 21065 However if it holds back above 24033 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24975 and 25517
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23240 Target 22950 and 22780 stoploss at 23415
MCXARUN
9994500540
30 May 2008 10:37:48
Bullion May 30 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold tumbled the most in a month as the dollar rallied, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.
The dollar climbed as much as 0.6 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies on speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin to raise U.S. borrowing costs this year to curb inflation. Crude oil erased an earlier decline after U.S. fuel inventories dropped
European central bankers have expressed ``personal opinions'' to renew an agreement to limit annual gold sales, they agreed to limit their gold sales to 500 metric tons a year through September 2009. The banks probably won't announce their plans until early next year,
Seven interest-rate cuts since September helped send the dollar to an all-time low against the euro and gold to a record, The federal funds rate is at 2 percent, down from 5.25 percent when the Fed began cutting rates in September to blunt the effects of a housing slump and a credit crisis that threatened to push the economy into a recession.
Mining companies may reduce their forward sales by a total of about 10 million ounces this year, GFMS said. They cut a record 14.3 million ounces last year; Gold averaged $923.82 an ounce in the first quarter, compared with $789.31 in the fourth quarter. Miners can agree to sell future production at current prices to protect against losses caused by sudden declines, a strategy known as hedging
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, raised to a record $548.1 billion last week, the central bank said, the value of reserves increased by $7.3 billion in the week ended May 23, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves gained $4 billion in the previous week.
ETF Securities Ltd. said its assets in precious metals reached $2 billion after one year, mostly in gold and platinum, The ETFS Physical Gold exchange-traded fund holds 1.1 million ounces worth more than $1 billion, while ETFS Physical Platinum has 360,000 ounces worth more than $776 million, ETFS Physical Silver has 9.6 million ounces worth about $175 million and ETFS Physical Palladium attracted 199,000 ounces of investor demand worth more than $90 million. The funds started trading on April 23 last year
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that real GDP was up .9% in the first quarter and up 2.5% from a year ago, as expected. Nominal GDP was up 4.8% from a year ago, a far cry from recession. The June U.S. T-bonds are steady to lower.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 4,000 last week to 372,000, roughly as expected. The March eurodollars are lower
Currencies update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .4% in March to 184.2. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11941 If market breaches below 11941 may see prices to take further correction towards 11782 and 11531 However if it holds back above 12351 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12602 and 12761
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12145 Target 12020 and 19890 Stoploss at 12195
MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22549 If market breaches below 22549 may see prices to take further correction towards 22007 and 21065 However if it holds back above 24033 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24975 and 25517
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23240 Target 22950 and 22780 stoploss at 23415
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The crude oil awakening begins as US and UK regulators have started investigating into the rise of crude oil prices. US regulators revealed a wide-ranging investigation into crude oil trading practices amid increasing congressional concern over the role of speculators in record energy prices. Citing unprecedented market conditions, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it was breaking with its customary secrecy to disclose that since December 2007 it had been investigating “the purchase, transportation, storage, and trading of crude oil and related derivative contracts”. The statement came as the agency tightened its oversight of oil and energy derivatives markets by agreeing to share more information on traders’ positions in key energy contracts with the UK’s Financial Services Authority.
Politicians are bowing to public pressure as truckers in the UK and fishermen in France have started raising their voice in a big way. These politicians act only when they feel that their power is nearing an end. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s public rating is at an all time low. The same is with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Crude oil prices along with higher food prices are pinching voters across the globe. Between now and the end of 2009, there are more than fifteen countries moving into general elections. In almost all the countries the chances of the ruling coming into power are very thin unless energy and food prices fall and stabilise. The long term rise in food and energy prices is here to stay, but that does not mean prices rise nearly fifty percent in less than six months.
There could be further profit taking in crude oil prices as traders book profit ahead of the weekend. $120.40 and $124.80 are the key intra day support. This has been the best month for the US dollar in 2008. Unless the US economy stumbles, one should expect further gains for the US dollar in June. Base metals and precious metals can gain today on short covering before the weekend.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Copper needs to close over $356 today else it will fall to $347 (200 day MA) and $336.10. Resistance at $372 and $378.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
As long as $119.80 holds till next week, downside will be limited.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Politicians are bowing to public pressure as truckers in the UK and fishermen in France have started raising their voice in a big way. These politicians act only when they feel that their power is nearing an end. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s public rating is at an all time low. The same is with Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president. Crude oil prices along with higher food prices are pinching voters across the globe. Between now and the end of 2009, there are more than fifteen countries moving into general elections. In almost all the countries the chances of the ruling coming into power are very thin unless energy and food prices fall and stabilise. The long term rise in food and energy prices is here to stay, but that does not mean prices rise nearly fifty percent in less than six months.
There could be further profit taking in crude oil prices as traders book profit ahead of the weekend. $120.40 and $124.80 are the key intra day support. This has been the best month for the US dollar in 2008. Unless the US economy stumbles, one should expect further gains for the US dollar in June. Base metals and precious metals can gain today on short covering before the weekend.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Copper needs to close over $356 today else it will fall to $347 (200 day MA) and $336.10. Resistance at $372 and $378.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
As long as $119.80 holds till next week, downside will be limited.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, May 29, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
book profit on sell below 12650/12500, for the day buy ard 12280-290 S/L 12275 and T/p 12350-60/12400 OR sell ard 12610-20 S/L 12625 and T/p 12560-500 upto 12460, anytime close below 12260 test 12075-100 in coming days (any time close above 13000-100/13425 bullish while close below 12260/11725/ 11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 24200, for the day buy ard 23930-40 S/L 23900 and T/p 24050 upto 24175 OR sell ard 24575-80 S/L 24600 and T/p 24475-360 upto 24300 (any time close below 23675-300/22750-300/21575-500/ 20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
EIA Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. as long resistance of 5730-50, down trend continue. for the day buy ard 5480-85 S/L 5475 and T/p 5530-60 OR sell ard 5715-25 S/L 5730 and T/p 5675-5630, now anytime close below 5375 test 5275 atleast/towards 5150 in coming days (now crude need to close above 5730/5825 for bullish rally while close below 5375/5310/ 5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 347-345, for the day buy only abv 352.5 S/L 351 and T/p 354/356.5/358/361-361.5/close abv test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 345 S/L 346 and T/p 343-42.5/340.5/338.5/336 where good support seen again, fall below 336 & 330 down rally sharp(upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
mcxarun
9994500540
book profit on sell below 12650/12500, for the day buy ard 12280-290 S/L 12275 and T/p 12350-60/12400 OR sell ard 12610-20 S/L 12625 and T/p 12560-500 upto 12460, anytime close below 12260 test 12075-100 in coming days (any time close above 13000-100/13425 bullish while close below 12260/11725/ 11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 24200, for the day buy ard 23930-40 S/L 23900 and T/p 24050 upto 24175 OR sell ard 24575-80 S/L 24600 and T/p 24475-360 upto 24300 (any time close below 23675-300/22750-300/21575-500/ 20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
EIA Crude oil inventory schedule to release today. as long resistance of 5730-50, down trend continue. for the day buy ard 5480-85 S/L 5475 and T/p 5530-60 OR sell ard 5715-25 S/L 5730 and T/p 5675-5630, now anytime close below 5375 test 5275 atleast/towards 5150 in coming days (now crude need to close above 5730/5825 for bullish rally while close below 5375/5310/ 5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 347-345, for the day buy only abv 352.5 S/L 351 and T/p 354/356.5/358/361-361.5/close abv test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 345 S/L 346 and T/p 343-42.5/340.5/338.5/336 where good support seen again, fall below 336 & 330 down rally sharp(upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
mcxarun
9994500540
comex crude oil intraday
Crude oil Outlook
29 May 2008 11:04:53
Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels yesterday, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.
Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $126.02 - $131.57 and closed at $130.99.
Weekly Technical Outlook
Expecting some correction if trades below 130.49. Supports are 128.30, 126.00; resistances are 133.22, 134.90. Otherwise likely to touch 137.97 and 140.88.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 130.10; bearish below 129.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 11:04:53
Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels yesterday, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production.
Expected strong energy demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
DWTI (July) traded in the range $126.02 - $131.57 and closed at $130.99.
Weekly Technical Outlook
Expecting some correction if trades below 130.49. Supports are 128.30, 126.00; resistances are 133.22, 134.90. Otherwise likely to touch 137.97 and 140.88.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 130.10; bearish below 129.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook
29 May 2008 10:52:19
Gold drifted lower yesterday, as the dollar held on to its previous day gains.
International spot gold traded in the range $909.40 - $888.90 and last quoted at $900.10 ($904.80).
The dollar found support in better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
The recent data from the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
But data from the job market was slightly encouraging. According to the latest release by US Labor Department, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 17th. However, the four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000, reaching 372,250.
The number of continuing jobless claims was unchanged for the week ended May 10, at 3.07 million. The four-week average of those claims rose by 31,750, to 3.05 million.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
The real GDP growth is revised to grow at 0.3% to 1.2% this year, down from the previous forecast of a 1.3% to 2.0% rate.
Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $914.10 – $893.80 and closed at $904.00 ($910.20).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 906.00; bearish below $ 901.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:52:19
Gold drifted lower yesterday, as the dollar held on to its previous day gains.
International spot gold traded in the range $909.40 - $888.90 and last quoted at $900.10 ($904.80).
The dollar found support in better-than-expected survey on US durable goods orders. Data from the Commerce Department showed new orders for US-made durable goods dropped less than expected 0.5 % in April, against the expectation for a 2.8% drop.
The recent data from the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.
According to the release by US Conference Board on Tuesday, the consumer confidence index fell to 57.2 in May from a revised reading of 62.8 in April.
However the sales of new homes recovered during April for the first time in six months, rising 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, the Commerce Department reported.
Even so, the housing market worries remained. Standard & Poor's reported that the decline in home prices for 20 US metropolitan areas accelerated in March, dropping 14.4% from the past year.
Earlier, the National Association of Realtors had reported a 1 % drop in the resale of houses and condos to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.89 million in April, from 4.94 million in March.
On last week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported that US home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in the first three months of 2008, which happens to be the largest quarterly price decline on record.
But data from the job market was slightly encouraging. According to the latest release by US Labor Department, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 17th. However, the four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000, reaching 372,250.
The number of continuing jobless claims was unchanged for the week ended May 10, at 3.07 million. The four-week average of those claims rose by 31,750, to 3.05 million.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting had invigorated worries about the economy. The minutes released last week revealed that the Fed sharply increased its inflation outlook for the current year and downwardly revised the forecast for economic growth for 2008.
According to the latest forecast, headline inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure price index would rise to a range of 3.1% to 3.4% this year, significantly higher from its previous forecast of 2.1% to 2.4% in January.
The real GDP growth is revised to grow at 0.3% to 1.2% this year, down from the previous forecast of a 1.3% to 2.0% rate.
Oil prices bounced back to $131 levels, after falling below $126 due to profit booking by the traders from the recent rally. The market is awaiting the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report, which will be released later today, for the latest updates on crude inventories.
Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $130.82 ($128.25), after trading in the range $131.58 - $125.96.
Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices underpin oil prices.
Another attack on Nigerian oil facilities refocused concerns on immediate supplies. Production was partially disturbed after militants attacked a major oil pipeline owned by Royal Dutch Shell in the Niger Delta on Monday.
Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $914.10 – $893.80 and closed at $904.00 ($910.20).
Weekly Technical Outlook (Spot Gold)
Above $930 likely to touch $936.50, $945, $955; Supports are $921, $914 and $903. Expecting some correction below $914.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 906.00; bearish below $ 901.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
29 May 2008 10:38:09
Energy May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region's biggest economy to boost imports.
Oil fell below $128 a barrel after the average U.S. gasoline pump prices rose to a record $3.937 a gallon, limiting demand at the start of the summer driving season. The dollar also gained against the euro for a second day, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Crude oil fell to a one-week low on signs that record U.S. gasoline prices will cut fuel consumption during the summer driving season. Gasoline pump prices reached an all-time high Monday, curbing demand at the start of the summer, when the country's fuel use typically peaks. Higher prices and a housing slump helped push U.S. consumer confidence to the lowest level since October 1992, a report showed Monday.
Oil markets are ``stressed'' by a lack of supply that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the International Energy Agency' said,
Crude prices drew some support from news of a weekend rebel attack on a Nigerian oil facility that cut about 130,000 barrels of the nation's oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note. News of disruptions in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push oil prices higher over the past year
According to EIA world oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008. U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008.
Natural gas in New York declined, following oil lower, amid speculation record prices will slash fuel demand. Norway, the second-largest seller of natural gas to Europe, will seek to increase annual exports by about 50 percent to compensate for declining oil output, the country's deputy oil minister said
MCX Crude Oil June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5640 levels. If market breaches 5640 may see prices to take further upside towards 5720 and 5855 However if it holds back below 5425 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5290 and 5210
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5660 Target 5580 and 5520 Stoploss 5710
MCX Natural gas June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 517.30 levels. If market breaches 517.30 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.60 and 533.33 However if it holds back below 501.30may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.60and 485.30
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 516 Target 512 and 507 Stop loss at 519.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:38:09
Energy May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Indonesia, the only OPEC member in Southeast Asia, will pull out of the group as aging fields and declining production force the region's biggest economy to boost imports.
Oil fell below $128 a barrel after the average U.S. gasoline pump prices rose to a record $3.937 a gallon, limiting demand at the start of the summer driving season. The dollar also gained against the euro for a second day, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Crude oil fell to a one-week low on signs that record U.S. gasoline prices will cut fuel consumption during the summer driving season. Gasoline pump prices reached an all-time high Monday, curbing demand at the start of the summer, when the country's fuel use typically peaks. Higher prices and a housing slump helped push U.S. consumer confidence to the lowest level since October 1992, a report showed Monday.
Oil markets are ``stressed'' by a lack of supply that's expected to continue for the foreseeable future, the International Energy Agency' said,
Crude prices drew some support from news of a weekend rebel attack on a Nigerian oil facility that cut about 130,000 barrels of the nation's oil production, said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a research note. News of disruptions in Nigeria, a major U.S. supplier, have helped push oil prices higher over the past year
According to EIA world oil consumption is projected to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2008. U.S. consumption of liquid fuels and other petroleum is expected to decline in 2008 by about 190,000 bbl/d as a result of the economic slowdown and high petroleum prices. After accounting for increased ethanol use, U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to fall by 330,000 bbl/d in 2008.
Natural gas in New York declined, following oil lower, amid speculation record prices will slash fuel demand. Norway, the second-largest seller of natural gas to Europe, will seek to increase annual exports by about 50 percent to compensate for declining oil output, the country's deputy oil minister said
MCX Crude Oil June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5640 levels. If market breaches 5640 may see prices to take further upside towards 5720 and 5855 However if it holds back below 5425 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5290 and 5210
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5660 Target 5580 and 5520 Stoploss 5710
MCX Natural gas June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the resistance is seen at 517.30 levels. If market breaches 517.30 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.60 and 533.33 However if it holds back below 501.30may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.60and 485.30
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Sell at 516 Target 512 and 507 Stop loss at 519.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
29 May 2008 10:25:46
Bullion May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell in New York for a second straight day as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment and Silver gained, before this week, gold had gained 40 percent in the past year as oil doubled, touching an all-time high of $135.09 a barrel last week
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday after a report showed new orders for US durable goods fell by less than expected in April, supporting the view the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold or even raise them by the end of the year
China, which may overtake South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, has discovered five major bullion deposits, the China Gold Association said. China's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.
Bullion soared to a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, as a falling U.S. dollar and declining equities led investors to buy alternative assets. China’s total gold resource is between 15,000 and 20,000 tons, the association said today. Production of the bullion in the first two months of the year was 38.2 tons, the association also said, without giving a comparison from a year earlier
There is some long liquidation in gold. "Certainly a part of it is fund activity and speculators." Gold futures dipped below $900, as psychologically important. The next key area is the $880s, and more specifically $886 for the June contract
The short-term sentiment was weak because of the softer euro and prices could come under selling pressure as trading in Europe gets underway. The metal could Retrace down toward support at $880/oz and the the weakness will likely prove temporary, and gold's longer-term outlook is still positive, given concerns about inflationary pressures and still-shaky outlook for the dollar,
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading lower.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Currencies update:
In Germany, annual inflation in three states topped 3% in May, highlighting upside risks to the reading for the euro zone’s biggest economy, due later on Wednesday. The data supported expectations for the European Central Bank to retain its hawkish, inflation-fighting stance despite signs of an economic slowdown seen in recent sentiment surveys from euro zone member states.
The dollar rose for a third day against a weighted basket of six currencies, including the euro and the yen. Record energy costs have fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to control inflation.
The Australian dollar's rally against the U.S. currency stalled after a slump in the price of gold, the country's third-most valuable export. The New Zealand dollar snapped an eight-day gain.
MCX Gold June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12262 If market breaches below 12262 may see prices to take further correction towards 12110 and 11959 However if it holds back above 12565 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12716 and 12868
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12485 Target 12350 and 12230 Stoploss at 12540
MCX Silver July Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23792 If market breaches below 23792 may see prices to take further correction towards 23333 and 22992 However if it holds back above 24592 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24933 and 25392
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24410 Target 24250 and 23970 stoploss at 24595
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:25:46
Bullion May 29 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell in New York for a second straight day as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment and Silver gained, before this week, gold had gained 40 percent in the past year as oil doubled, touching an all-time high of $135.09 a barrel last week
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday after a report showed new orders for US durable goods fell by less than expected in April, supporting the view the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold or even raise them by the end of the year
China, which may overtake South Africa as the world's largest gold producer, has discovered five major bullion deposits, the China Gold Association said. China's demand for gold jumped 23 percent in 2007, making it the world's second-largest consumer, as a booming economy spurs jewelry purchases.
Bullion soared to a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 17, as a falling U.S. dollar and declining equities led investors to buy alternative assets. China’s total gold resource is between 15,000 and 20,000 tons, the association said today. Production of the bullion in the first two months of the year was 38.2 tons, the association also said, without giving a comparison from a year earlier
There is some long liquidation in gold. "Certainly a part of it is fund activity and speculators." Gold futures dipped below $900, as psychologically important. The next key area is the $880s, and more specifically $886 for the June contract
The short-term sentiment was weak because of the softer euro and prices could come under selling pressure as trading in Europe gets underway. The metal could Retrace down toward support at $880/oz and the the weakness will likely prove temporary, and gold's longer-term outlook is still positive, given concerns about inflationary pressures and still-shaky outlook for the dollar,
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected. The June U.S. T-bonds are trading lower.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Currencies update:
In Germany, annual inflation in three states topped 3% in May, highlighting upside risks to the reading for the euro zone’s biggest economy, due later on Wednesday. The data supported expectations for the European Central Bank to retain its hawkish, inflation-fighting stance despite signs of an economic slowdown seen in recent sentiment surveys from euro zone member states.
The dollar rose for a third day against a weighted basket of six currencies, including the euro and the yen. Record energy costs have fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to control inflation.
The Australian dollar's rally against the U.S. currency stalled after a slump in the price of gold, the country's third-most valuable export. The New Zealand dollar snapped an eight-day gain.
MCX Gold June Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 12262 If market breaches below 12262 may see prices to take further correction towards 12110 and 11959 However if it holds back above 12565 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12716 and 12868
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12485 Target 12350 and 12230 Stoploss at 12540
MCX Silver July Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 23792 If market breaches below 23792 may see prices to take further correction towards 23333 and 22992 However if it holds back above 24592 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24933 and 25392
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24410 Target 24250 and 23970 stoploss at 24595
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Basemetals
29 May 2008 10:11:40
Base Metals May 29, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Real GDP in Malaysia was up 7.1% in the first quarter from a year ago, stronger than expected. Malaysia is the third largest economy in Southeast Asia.
Copper
Copper dropped to a two-month low in London as rising inventories signalled slower demand. MCX Copper June dropped towards the low of 342.40 and bounced back to 347.80
Metals bearish movement was supported by weakness oil and bullion prices as Crude oil fell in New York as prices around $130 a barrel may lead consumers in the U.S. and Asia to limit fuel purchases. Gold fell in New York, heading for the biggest two-day drop in three weeks, as crude oil extended its losses for a second straight day, reducing demand for the precious metal an inflation hedge. Silver also dropped.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 1,400 metric tons to 125,800 tons, the highest since March 13, according to the exchange's daily warehouse report.
Metal orders may drop ahead of the northern hemisphere summer when manufacturing slows, said Alex Heath, head of base-metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 351.4 levels. If market breaches 351.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 354.9 and 359.4 however if it holds back below 343.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.8 and 335.3
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346 Target 349 and 352 SL 344.10
Nickel
Nickel fell for a second day in Asia on a weaker outlook for demand from the stainless steel industry, which accounts for two-thirds of total nickel use. Copper fell.
Stainless steel output has been picking up more slowly than anticipated, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Nickel inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses stood at 48,558 metric tons yesterday, nearly 7 times the level a year ago.
The price of nickel, which has halved in the past year, may rebound as China shuts furnaces producing the substitute nickel pig iron, a Chinese smelter said.
China last August issued orders restricting investment in nickel pig iron furnaces and demanded the closure of furnaces with a capacity of less than 300 cubic meters to curb energy consumption. Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel.
Nickel pig iron, processed from low-grade nickel ore, contains 4 to 10 percent nickel. The price of nickel has plunged because of the use of substitute and as stainless steel producers ran down inventories rather than buy new stocks.
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered prices on May 22 after mills reduced usage. The raw material has been in a surplus for 13 months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
China's nickel demand, including refined metal and nickel-ore content, may jump 20 percent this year on increased stainless-steel production, an analyst at Xinhua News Agency's specialist metals publication said.
Nickel consumption may rise from 335,000 metric tons last year, Chong Dahai of the fortnightly China Metals report said in an interview at a conference in Shanghai. Imports of the refined metal may outpace ore because of falling prices on the London Metal Exchange, the stronger yuan and the government's crackdown on small furnaces making nickel pig iron, he said.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –54 MT to 48504 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 948 If market breaches below 948 may see prices to take further correction towards 928 and 906 However if it holds back above 989 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1011 and 1031
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 970-975 Target 955 and 940 SL 986
Zinc
MCX Zinc May dropped towards the low of 88.35 following heave inventory data at LME and move was supported by weakness in copper and bullion-energy prices.
Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose the most since Jan. 7. Inventories climbed 7,000 metric tons, or 5.4 percent, to 135,650 tons, the highest since October 2006, according to exchange figures.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.8 and 85.3 However if it holds back above 91.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 94.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91 Target 88 and 86 SL 92.30
Lead
Lead fell to a one-year low on the London Metal Exchange. The metal for delivery in three months fell to $1,980 a metric ton, the lowest since May 17, 2007, and was at $2,000 a ton as of 1:21 p.m. local time. Prices have dropped 22 percent this year.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 63575 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 85.9 If market breaches below 85.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.3 and 83.1 However if it holds back above 88.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 89.8 and 91.4
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 88 Target 86 and 84 SL at 89.20
Aluminium
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1225 MT to 1072300 MT
Saudi Arabian Mining Co., the state- owned metals and minerals producer known as Ma'aden, said its aluminum project with Rio Tinto Group will be delayed to 2012 due to the lack of power supply.
Workers at CVG Industria Venezolana de Aluminio CA, Venezuela's biggest state-owned aluminium smelter, went on strike after bonuses were withheld, Correo del Caroni said. The strike began at 9:30 a.m. local time yesterday after the company sent a letter saying it wouldn't make payments, the Venezuelan newspaper said.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.8 levels. If market breaches 126.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 129.0 and 131.0 However if it holds back below 122.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.6 and 118.4
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 124 Target 126 and 128 SL 122.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 May 2008 10:11:40
Base Metals May 29, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .5% in April, better than expected. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.5%, also better than expected.
The Mortgage Bankers' Association said that its index of mortgage applications was down 4.6% last week.
Real GDP in Malaysia was up 7.1% in the first quarter from a year ago, stronger than expected. Malaysia is the third largest economy in Southeast Asia.
Copper
Copper dropped to a two-month low in London as rising inventories signalled slower demand. MCX Copper June dropped towards the low of 342.40 and bounced back to 347.80
Metals bearish movement was supported by weakness oil and bullion prices as Crude oil fell in New York as prices around $130 a barrel may lead consumers in the U.S. and Asia to limit fuel purchases. Gold fell in New York, heading for the biggest two-day drop in three weeks, as crude oil extended its losses for a second straight day, reducing demand for the precious metal an inflation hedge. Silver also dropped.
Copper stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange climbed 1,400 metric tons to 125,800 tons, the highest since March 13, according to the exchange's daily warehouse report.
Metal orders may drop ahead of the northern hemisphere summer when manufacturing slows, said Alex Heath, head of base-metals trading at RBC Capital Markets in London.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 351.4 levels. If market breaches 351.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 354.9 and 359.4 however if it holds back below 343.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.8 and 335.3
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346 Target 349 and 352 SL 344.10
Nickel
Nickel fell for a second day in Asia on a weaker outlook for demand from the stainless steel industry, which accounts for two-thirds of total nickel use. Copper fell.
Stainless steel output has been picking up more slowly than anticipated, according to Michael Widmer, director of metals research at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Nickel inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses stood at 48,558 metric tons yesterday, nearly 7 times the level a year ago.
The price of nickel, which has halved in the past year, may rebound as China shuts furnaces producing the substitute nickel pig iron, a Chinese smelter said.
China last August issued orders restricting investment in nickel pig iron furnaces and demanded the closure of furnaces with a capacity of less than 300 cubic meters to curb energy consumption. Nickel is used in the making of stainless steel.
Nickel pig iron, processed from low-grade nickel ore, contains 4 to 10 percent nickel. The price of nickel has plunged because of the use of substitute and as stainless steel producers ran down inventories rather than buy new stocks.
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered prices on May 22 after mills reduced usage. The raw material has been in a surplus for 13 months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
China's nickel demand, including refined metal and nickel-ore content, may jump 20 percent this year on increased stainless-steel production, an analyst at Xinhua News Agency's specialist metals publication said.
Nickel consumption may rise from 335,000 metric tons last year, Chong Dahai of the fortnightly China Metals report said in an interview at a conference in Shanghai. Imports of the refined metal may outpace ore because of falling prices on the London Metal Exchange, the stronger yuan and the government's crackdown on small furnaces making nickel pig iron, he said.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –54 MT to 48504 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 948 If market breaches below 948 may see prices to take further correction towards 928 and 906 However if it holds back above 989 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1011 and 1031
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 970-975 Target 955 and 940 SL 986
Zinc
MCX Zinc May dropped towards the low of 88.35 following heave inventory data at LME and move was supported by weakness in copper and bullion-energy prices.
Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose the most since Jan. 7. Inventories climbed 7,000 metric tons, or 5.4 percent, to 135,650 tons, the highest since October 2006, according to exchange figures.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.8 and 85.3 However if it holds back above 91.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 94.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91 Target 88 and 86 SL 92.30
Lead
Lead fell to a one-year low on the London Metal Exchange. The metal for delivery in three months fell to $1,980 a metric ton, the lowest since May 17, 2007, and was at $2,000 a ton as of 1:21 p.m. local time. Prices have dropped 22 percent this year.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -25 MT to 63575 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 85.9 If market breaches below 85.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.3 and 83.1 However if it holds back above 88.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 89.8 and 91.4
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 88 Target 86 and 84 SL at 89.20
Aluminium
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1225 MT to 1072300 MT
Saudi Arabian Mining Co., the state- owned metals and minerals producer known as Ma'aden, said its aluminum project with Rio Tinto Group will be delayed to 2012 due to the lack of power supply.
Workers at CVG Industria Venezolana de Aluminio CA, Venezuela's biggest state-owned aluminium smelter, went on strike after bonuses were withheld, Correo del Caroni said. The strike began at 9:30 a.m. local time yesterday after the company sent a letter saying it wouldn't make payments, the Venezuelan newspaper said.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.8 levels. If market breaches 126.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 129.0 and 131.0 However if it holds back below 122.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 120.6 and 118.4
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 124 Target 126 and 128 SL 122.90
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US dollar has gained against the euro and yen as markets fully factor a hundred percent chance of no rate cut in the end of June meeting. In June Eurozone and Asian growth will be the key for the US dollar as US growth is already discounted. If they falter and inflation zooms in these regions, the US dollar could pare some of its 2008 losses. Overall June will be a volatile month for the currency markets. Crude oil traders will be preparing for the upcoming US hurricane season. For the base metals Chinese demand will be the key. Zinc and Nickel can fall further in June if demand does not rise as much. For copper it’s better to remain on the sidelines.
If crude oil falls, gold and silver fall more. Whereas when crude oil rises, gold and silver do not rise as much. This is not a short term positive sign. Crude oil prices will be the key for gold and silver in the short term. If crude oil remains firm, gold will continue to find buyers on sharp dips. Gold June futures are expiring tomorrow. Traders and investors have started investing for June. In June spot gold will trade in a wider $850-$950 range. A break from the $850-$950 zone will be there if the US dollar and energy prices change track.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver has to close over $1754 tomorrow else it will fall back to the $1696, $1606 zone.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
As long as crude oil holds $124.80 downside will be limited and it will target $135 once again.
MCXARUN
9994500540
If crude oil falls, gold and silver fall more. Whereas when crude oil rises, gold and silver do not rise as much. This is not a short term positive sign. Crude oil prices will be the key for gold and silver in the short term. If crude oil remains firm, gold will continue to find buyers on sharp dips. Gold June futures are expiring tomorrow. Traders and investors have started investing for June. In June spot gold will trade in a wider $850-$950 range. A break from the $850-$950 zone will be there if the US dollar and energy prices change track.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE
Silver has to close over $1754 tomorrow else it will fall back to the $1696, $1606 zone.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
As long as crude oil holds $124.80 downside will be limited and it will target $135 once again.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, May 23, 2008
energy intraday
Energy
23 May 2008 10:35:10
Energy
Major Headlines:
Oil soared on Thursday, hitting new record highs above $135 per barrel on both sides of the Atlantic before turning lower on a combination of profit-taking and a bounce in the dollar
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production rates.
The price surge over the last two sessions followed a surprise drop in U.S. fuel stocks inventories in the weekly report from the Department of Energy, sparking further supply fears. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 5.4 million barrels, confounding market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, down by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a small weekly decline ahead of the driving season
Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
The news was particularly market-sensitive, coming days ahead of the U.S.Summer-holiday driving season that kicks off this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Americans have begun buying less gasoline as prices at the pump hit new highs. The change in driving habits is raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending, the main engine of the world's biggest economy.
The rapid surge in oil prices came as the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its 2008 growth forecast for the U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer. The Fed on Wednesday slashed its forecasts to a range of 0.3 to 1.2 percent, from its prior forecast of 1.3 to 2.0 percent in January. The central bank cited higher oil prices as a key factor weighing on momentum.
Natural gas in storage in the U.S. rose last week but is 0.2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 85 billion cubic feet to more than 1.61 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 16.
MCX Crude Oil June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5789 levels. If market breaches 5789 may see prices to take further upside towards 5907 and 5993 however if it holds back below 5585 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5499 and 5381
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5750 Target 5680 and 5610 Stop loss 5790
MCX Natural Gas May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 518.67 levels. If market breaches 518.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.33 and 534.67 however if it holds back below 502.67 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.33 and 486.67
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 507 Target 511 and 515 Stop loss at 503
23 May 2008 10:35:10
Energy
Major Headlines:
Oil soared on Thursday, hitting new record highs above $135 per barrel on both sides of the Atlantic before turning lower on a combination of profit-taking and a bounce in the dollar
Oil prices have soared by over 30 percent since the beginning of the year, extending a long-term rally that has seen prices more than double since the beginning of 2007, as market players weigh rising demand against concerns over production rates.
The price surge over the last two sessions followed a surprise drop in U.S. fuel stocks inventories in the weekly report from the Department of Energy, sparking further supply fears. U.S. crude oil inventories plunged by 5.4 million barrels, confounding market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, down by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a small weekly decline ahead of the driving season
Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the United States ahead of the summer driving season have also boosted crude. On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.
The news was particularly market-sensitive, coming days ahead of the U.S.Summer-holiday driving season that kicks off this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Americans have begun buying less gasoline as prices at the pump hit new highs. The change in driving habits is raising concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending, the main engine of the world's biggest economy.
The rapid surge in oil prices came as the U.S. Federal Reserve slashed its 2008 growth forecast for the U.S. economy, the world's biggest oil consumer. The Fed on Wednesday slashed its forecasts to a range of 0.3 to 1.2 percent, from its prior forecast of 1.3 to 2.0 percent in January. The central bank cited higher oil prices as a key factor weighing on momentum.
Natural gas in storage in the U.S. rose last week but is 0.2 percent below the five-year average for this time of year, The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural-gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 85 billion cubic feet to more than 1.61 trillion cubic feet for the week ending May 16.
MCX Crude Oil June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5789 levels. If market breaches 5789 may see prices to take further upside towards 5907 and 5993 however if it holds back below 5585 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5499 and 5381
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Sell at 5750 Target 5680 and 5610 Stop loss 5790
MCX Natural Gas May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 518.67 levels. If market breaches 518.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 524.33 and 534.67 however if it holds back below 502.67 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 492.33 and 486.67
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 507 Target 511 and 515 Stop loss at 503
bullion intraday
Bullions
23 May 2008 10:27:56
Bullion
Major Headlines:
Gold fell from a one-month high as the dollar rebounded against the euro and crude oil dropped from a record, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also declined.
The dollar snapped a two-day slide, rising from the lowest in a month against the euro. Before today, gold had gained 11 percent this year as the euro climbed 8.3 percent against the dollar.
Rocketing oil prices, which Thursday struck a record $135.09, stoked inflation fears to which the precious metal is often bought as a hedge and stemmed gold's losses. Meanwhile, some say there is a strong chance the dollar could fall again, which would likely boost gold.
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs by the end of the year to fight inflation. Traders see a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise its target interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent in September, up from 21 percent yesterday, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $540.8 billion last week, the central bank said. The value of reserves increased by $4 billion in the week ended May 16, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, The reserves gained $2.9 billion in the previous week.
Gold sales in the United Arab Emirates rose 15 percent in the first quarter, Asharq al-Awsat reported, citing the World Gold Council. Sales in the first quarter reached 3.1 billion dirhams ($844 million) from 2.7 billion dirhams in the year-earlier period, the Saudi-owned newspaper said, citing the council.
Gold has trekked higher for five straight sessions -- gaining 7 percent in the past week -- as crude's seemingly relentless drive higher adds to growing inflation fears and boots demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Precious metals are traditionally viewed as hedges against inflation because they're known for holding their value.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 365,000, less than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.
Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12923 levels. If market breaches 12923 may see prices to take further upside towards 13105 and 13212 however if it holds back below 12634 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12527 and 12345
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12820 Target 12745 and 12610 Stoploss at 12865
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25315 levels. If market breaches 25315 may see prices to take further upside towards 25709 and 26034 however if it holds back below 24596 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24271 and 23877
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 25110 Target 24820 and 23650 Stop loss at 25250
MCXARUN
9994500540
23 May 2008 10:27:56
Bullion
Major Headlines:
Gold fell from a one-month high as the dollar rebounded against the euro and crude oil dropped from a record, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also declined.
The dollar snapped a two-day slide, rising from the lowest in a month against the euro. Before today, gold had gained 11 percent this year as the euro climbed 8.3 percent against the dollar.
Rocketing oil prices, which Thursday struck a record $135.09, stoked inflation fears to which the precious metal is often bought as a hedge and stemmed gold's losses. Meanwhile, some say there is a strong chance the dollar could fall again, which would likely boost gold.
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs by the end of the year to fight inflation. Traders see a 30 percent chance the Fed will raise its target interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent in September, up from 21 percent yesterday, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $540.8 billion last week, the central bank said. The value of reserves increased by $4 billion in the week ended May 16, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, The reserves gained $2.9 billion in the previous week.
Gold sales in the United Arab Emirates rose 15 percent in the first quarter, Asharq al-Awsat reported, citing the World Gold Council. Sales in the first quarter reached 3.1 billion dirhams ($844 million) from 2.7 billion dirhams in the year-earlier period, the Saudi-owned newspaper said, citing the council.
Gold has trekked higher for five straight sessions -- gaining 7 percent in the past week -- as crude's seemingly relentless drive higher adds to growing inflation fears and boots demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Precious metals are traditionally viewed as hedges against inflation because they're known for holding their value.
U.S.Economy:
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 9,000 last week to 365,000, less than expected.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.
Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12923 levels. If market breaches 12923 may see prices to take further upside towards 13105 and 13212 however if it holds back below 12634 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12527 and 12345
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 12820 Target 12745 and 12610 Stoploss at 12865
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25315 levels. If market breaches 25315 may see prices to take further upside towards 25709 and 26034 however if it holds back below 24596 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24271 and 23877
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 25110 Target 24820 and 23650 Stop loss at 25250
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Base Metals
23 May 2008 10:21:47
Base Metals )
Major Economic Data
First-time claims for state unemployment dropped by 9,000 to 365,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending May 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims were the lowest since the week ended April 5. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000 to 372,250. In the first quarter U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% -- the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Prices fell 3.1% in the past year. In the prior quarter, prices declined 1.4%. For March, prices fell 0.4%.
Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.
Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.
Copper
MCX Copper June traded lower following movement at LME. US Home price index and a sharp correction in bullion and energy prices supported the move. Copper dripped almost by 4%.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 250 MT to 125200 MT
Chinese imports of refined copper in April rose 1.2 percent to 127,977 tons from March, the Beijing-based customs office said. That has helped drive copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange down 37 percent this year, while prices have gained 24 percent.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 342.2 If market breaches below 342.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 337.4 and 329.8 However if it holds back above 354.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 362.2 and 367.0
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 348.50-349 target 345 and 341 SL 351.60
Nickel
Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years in London as a surplus over the past year discouraged buying.
Nickel has been in a surplus for 13 consecutive months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest producer of the metal used in stainless steel, lowered prices today for a second time this week after steel mills reduced usage.Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years on the London Metal Exchange.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -258 MT to 48870 MT
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered the price of the refined metal by 4.6 percent today. That's the second price cut within a week.The price was cut by 10,000 yuan to 208,000 yuan ($29,949) a metric ton, according to a statement on the Web site of the Gansu, western China-based company. The last reduction was on May 15.
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 984.0 If market breaches below 984.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 953.0 and 904.0 However if it holds back above 1064.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1113.0 and 1144.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1020 Target 987 and 965 SL 1032
Zinc
MCX Zinc fell by more then 3.5% following other metals at LME while sharp correction in bullion and energy also supported the move.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was 375 MT to 128525 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.7 If market breaches below 87.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.8 and 80.9 However if it holds back above 94.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.4 and 101.3
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30-91.50 Target 89.60 and 88 SL 92.65
Lead
Lead fell to the lowest in one year on the London Metal Exchange.
Hindustan Zinc Lowers Lead Prices by 2%, Keeps Zinc Unchanged
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 50 MT to 63900 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 84.2 If market breaches below 84.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 81.6 and 77.0 However if it holds back above 91.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 96.1 and 98.7
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 87.65 Target 86.60 and 85 SL 89
Aluminium
Aluminium gained for a third consecutive day, shrugging off a 4.5 percent stockpile jump to a four-year high. Options for the contract to expire next month show investors are betting that prices will stay above $3,000 a ton.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was 9975 MT to 1075600 MT
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 125.3 If market breaches below 125.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 123.7 and 121.2 However if it holds back above 129.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 132.0 and 133.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 128 Target 126 and 124.5 SL 129.15
MCXARUN
9994500540
23 May 2008 10:21:47
Base Metals )
Major Economic Data
First-time claims for state unemployment dropped by 9,000 to 365,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending May 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims were the lowest since the week ended April 5. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000 to 372,250. In the first quarter U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% -- the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Prices fell 3.1% in the past year. In the prior quarter, prices declined 1.4%. For March, prices fell 0.4%.
Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.
Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.
Copper
MCX Copper June traded lower following movement at LME. US Home price index and a sharp correction in bullion and energy prices supported the move. Copper dripped almost by 4%.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 250 MT to 125200 MT
Chinese imports of refined copper in April rose 1.2 percent to 127,977 tons from March, the Beijing-based customs office said. That has helped drive copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange down 37 percent this year, while prices have gained 24 percent.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 342.2 If market breaches below 342.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 337.4 and 329.8 However if it holds back above 354.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 362.2 and 367.0
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 348.50-349 target 345 and 341 SL 351.60
Nickel
Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years in London as a surplus over the past year discouraged buying.
Nickel has been in a surplus for 13 consecutive months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest producer of the metal used in stainless steel, lowered prices today for a second time this week after steel mills reduced usage.Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years on the London Metal Exchange.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -258 MT to 48870 MT
Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered the price of the refined metal by 4.6 percent today. That's the second price cut within a week.The price was cut by 10,000 yuan to 208,000 yuan ($29,949) a metric ton, according to a statement on the Web site of the Gansu, western China-based company. The last reduction was on May 15.
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 984.0 If market breaches below 984.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 953.0 and 904.0 However if it holds back above 1064.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1113.0 and 1144.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1020 Target 987 and 965 SL 1032
Zinc
MCX Zinc fell by more then 3.5% following other metals at LME while sharp correction in bullion and energy also supported the move.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was 375 MT to 128525 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.7 If market breaches below 87.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.8 and 80.9 However if it holds back above 94.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.4 and 101.3
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30-91.50 Target 89.60 and 88 SL 92.65
Lead
Lead fell to the lowest in one year on the London Metal Exchange.
Hindustan Zinc Lowers Lead Prices by 2%, Keeps Zinc Unchanged
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 50 MT to 63900 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 84.2 If market breaches below 84.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 81.6 and 77.0 However if it holds back above 91.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 96.1 and 98.7
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 87.65 Target 86.60 and 85 SL 89
Aluminium
Aluminium gained for a third consecutive day, shrugging off a 4.5 percent stockpile jump to a four-year high. Options for the contract to expire next month show investors are betting that prices will stay above $3,000 a ton.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was 9975 MT to 1075600 MT
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 125.3 If market breaches below 125.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 123.7 and 121.2 However if it holds back above 129.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 132.0 and 133.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 128 Target 126 and 124.5 SL 129.15
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Global trading volumes will fall as the day progresses due to US and UK holidays on Monday. Retail investors and traders will be going on their extended weekend. But the markets will not sleep. Early May, UK markets were closed and the US markets was open, when comex copper July futures rose to $428.70 from $384 in a few minutes only to crash thereafter. Do not expect markets to sleep on Monday. There could be brief phases of high volatility. Once again the US dollar and crude oil prices will drive most of the commodities.
Base metals got the thrashing on expectations that higher crude oil prices will result in a further slowdown in global growth. The second round effects due to higher crude oil prices is yet come. If over the next few months global growth (including China) does not slowdown as much then base metals will rise. Technically lead, zinc and nickel are in the oversold zone and a technical correction can come up anytime.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
100 day MA at $365.20 is the key support. A consolidated fall below $365.20 will result in $348.20.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals got the thrashing on expectations that higher crude oil prices will result in a further slowdown in global growth. The second round effects due to higher crude oil prices is yet come. If over the next few months global growth (including China) does not slowdown as much then base metals will rise. Technically lead, zinc and nickel are in the oversold zone and a technical correction can come up anytime.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
100 day MA at $365.20 is the key support. A consolidated fall below $365.20 will result in $348.20.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, May 22, 2008
safe trade calls
GOLD
OUR HEAD LINE "CLOSE ABV 12475 TEST 12600-700-800" ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 12425/12475/12660, for the day buy abv 12850 S/L 12830 and T/p 12900-925/13000 OR buy ard 12610-15 S/L 12600 and T/p 12660-690 upto 12750 (any time close above 12850/13100/13425 bullish while close below 12300/11725/11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS "close above 24500 test 25000-50 atleast in coming days" ACHIEVED. book profit on buy abv 23725/850/24450-500, for the day buy abv 25000 S/L 24910 and T/p 25100-200 upto 25400 OR buy ard 24675-80 S/L 24650 and T/p 24750-850 (any time close below 23300/ 22750-300/21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25000/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 5400/5500, for the day buy only abv 5675 S/L 5645 and T/p 5710-40 upto 5780 OR sell below 5590 S/L 5615 and T/p 5550-55/20/ 5475/down rally (now crude need to close above 5675 for bullish rally while close below 5460/5310/5120/5050/4740/ 4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 346.5-347/351, for the day buy only abv 354.5 & 355.5 S/L 353.25 and T/p 356.5/358/361-361.5/close above test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 347 S/L 348.6 and T/p 345.5-343.5/341 where good support seen again, fall below 338-336/330 down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
OUR HEAD LINE "CLOSE ABV 12475 TEST 12600-700-800" ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 12425/12475/12660, for the day buy abv 12850 S/L 12830 and T/p 12900-925/13000 OR buy ard 12610-15 S/L 12600 and T/p 12660-690 upto 12750 (any time close above 12850/13100/13425 bullish while close below 12300/11725/11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS "close above 24500 test 25000-50 atleast in coming days" ACHIEVED. book profit on buy abv 23725/850/24450-500, for the day buy abv 25000 S/L 24910 and T/p 25100-200 upto 25400 OR buy ard 24675-80 S/L 24650 and T/p 24750-850 (any time close below 23300/ 22750-300/21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 25000/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 5400/5500, for the day buy only abv 5675 S/L 5645 and T/p 5710-40 upto 5780 OR sell below 5590 S/L 5615 and T/p 5550-55/20/ 5475/down rally (now crude need to close above 5675 for bullish rally while close below 5460/5310/5120/5050/4740/ 4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 346.5-347/351, for the day buy only abv 354.5 & 355.5 S/L 353.25 and T/p 356.5/358/361-361.5/close above test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 347 S/L 348.6 and T/p 345.5-343.5/341 where good support seen again, fall below 338-336/330 down rally sharp (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
22 May 2008 10:33:35
Major Headlines:
Oil hit a record above $132 as U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell ahead of the peak demand-driving season, which officially kicks off next week. In a weekly report issued by the Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks plunged 5.4 million barrels last week against market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a 200,000-barrel decline, ahead of the driving season.
The U.S. consumes roughly 20.5 mln barrels per day, this means that if recent price increases are sustained, the cost of energy to U.S. consumers will increase by about $300 billion over the next twelve months.
Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, ahead of the driving season also lifted crude's value.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, Opec ministers have said again that an output Increase is unlikely; that the cartel is not responsible for higher prices and that it will not meet before September
OPEC's secretary-general said that the world oil market is well supplied, even as the price for a barrel of oil soared above $131 for the first time. OPEC chief Abdullah Salem el-Badri met Tuesday in Caracas with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Venezuela's state-run news agency quotes El-Badri as saying "there's no scarcity of oil in the market" because international oil supplies are very high
The euro surged on Wednesday to its highest in nearly a month against the dollar after a key German survey of confidence showed a surprise improvement. Such dollar weakness is also boosting crude oil
Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil surged to a record and Stockpiles of natural gas rose 86 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 16, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The average change for the same week of the year over the past five is an increase of 91 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data
MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5735 levels. If market breaches 5735 may see prices to take further upside towards 5811 and 5946 however if it holds back below 5524 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5389 and 5313
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5610 Target 5680 and 5760 Stop loss 5475
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 510.60 levels. If market breaches 510.60 may see prices to take further upside towards 516.30 and 526.60 however if it holds back below 494.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 484.30 and 478.60
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 501 Target 504 and 510 Stop loss at 497
MCXARUN
9994500540
22 May 2008 10:33:35
Major Headlines:
Oil hit a record above $132 as U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell ahead of the peak demand-driving season, which officially kicks off next week. In a weekly report issued by the Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks plunged 5.4 million barrels last week against market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a 200,000-barrel decline, ahead of the driving season.
The U.S. consumes roughly 20.5 mln barrels per day, this means that if recent price increases are sustained, the cost of energy to U.S. consumers will increase by about $300 billion over the next twelve months.
Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, ahead of the driving season also lifted crude's value.
Meanwhile, on the supply side, Opec ministers have said again that an output Increase is unlikely; that the cartel is not responsible for higher prices and that it will not meet before September
OPEC's secretary-general said that the world oil market is well supplied, even as the price for a barrel of oil soared above $131 for the first time. OPEC chief Abdullah Salem el-Badri met Tuesday in Caracas with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Venezuela's state-run news agency quotes El-Badri as saying "there's no scarcity of oil in the market" because international oil supplies are very high
The euro surged on Wednesday to its highest in nearly a month against the dollar after a key German survey of confidence showed a surprise improvement. Such dollar weakness is also boosting crude oil
Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil surged to a record and Stockpiles of natural gas rose 86 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 16, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The average change for the same week of the year over the past five is an increase of 91 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data
MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5735 levels. If market breaches 5735 may see prices to take further upside towards 5811 and 5946 however if it holds back below 5524 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5389 and 5313
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5610 Target 5680 and 5760 Stop loss 5475
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 510.60 levels. If market breaches 510.60 may see prices to take further upside towards 516.30 and 526.60 however if it holds back below 494.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 484.30 and 478.60
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 501 Target 504 and 510 Stop loss at 497
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intrday
Base Metals
22 May 2008 10:21:03
Copper Copper fell for the second time in three days as rising inventories of the metal signal slowing demand in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest users.
Inventories monitored by London Metal Exchange have jumped 13 percent this month and today reached the highest level since March 17. China reported this month that its copper imports dropped 19 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.
The price has dropped 12 percent since reaching a record May 5.The dollar fell as much as 0.5 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies. The gauge has dropped 5.6 percent this year before today, helping to spur a jump in copper prices as traders sought a store of value.
WBMS Report:
The world copper market was in a surplus of less than 4,000 metric tons during the first quarter of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday. This compares with a deficit of 89,700 tons for the same period of 2007. Copper mine production for the first three months of the year was 3.66 million tons, 4% lower than in January to March 2007. Refined production rose 2.1% to 4.50 million tons.
ICSG Report
The global copper market was in a 60,000 metric ton deficit in February this year, leaving the market in a 60,000-ton deficit for the first two months of 2008, the International Copper Study Group said in a release late Wednesday.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 348.2 If market breaches below 348.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 346.1 and 344.1 However if it holds back above 352.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 354.3 and 356.4
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 351 Target 348, 346 and 344 SL 353.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel May traded very weak following LME movement while LME Inventory data and WBMS report were positive for the market.
WBMS Report: Nickel deficit in Q1 was 9,300 tons, WBMS says
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -150 MT to 49128 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1062.0 if market breaches below 1062.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1044.0 and 1018.0; however if it holds back above 1106.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1132.0 and 1150.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1085 Target 1060 and 1040 SL 1096
Zinc
Zinc declined on the London Metal Exchange on expectations that output cuts in China after last week's earthquake would have little effect on global supply. MCX Zinc May traded bearish following other metals; market was down by almost 3%.
Production may drop by 60,000 metric tons, or 1.5 percent of this year's estimated output, because of smelter damage, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said yesterday. The May 12 quake in Sichuan, China's strongest in 58 years halted some metals production in the region.
Chinese zinc miners in Sichuan province have halted ore production on government orders after the quake, according to researcher CBI China Co. Lead miners in the region are almost certain to have halted too, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu together produce around 20 percent of the nation's zinc and lead concentrate, 20 percent of the nation's refined zinc yet very little of the lead metal.
WBMS Report: lead deficit 31,000 tons; zinc surplus 84.500 tons, WBMS says
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -75 MT to 128150 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 93.0 If market breaches below 93.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 91.7 and 89.9 However if it holds back above 96.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 97.9 and 99.2
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 94 Target 92 and 91 SL 95.20
Lead
MCX Lead May dropped by 2% following other metals at LME, market traded near days low of 90.55, while WBMS report was bullish for prices.
WBMS Report: LEAD DEFICIT 31,000 TONS, ZINC SURPLUS 84.500 TONS, WBMS SAYS
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -600 MT to 63850 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.3 If market breaches below 90.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.3 and 88.1 However if it holds back above 92.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.8 and 94.8
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 92.40 Target 90.50 and 89 SL 93.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May traded strong following bullishness at LME despite the fact other metals traded very weak.
WBMS Report
The global Aluminium market was in a 381,000 metric ton surplus in the first quarter of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.
This compares with a 116,000 ton surplus in the same period last year. Demand for primary Aluminium was 9.31 million tons, 379,000 tons more than the equivalent total for January to March 2007. Production rose 643,000 tons to 9.69 million tons during the same period, the WBMS said.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 3900 MT to 1065625 MT
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 129.1 levels. If market breaches 129.1 may see prices to take further upside towards 130.6 and 132.6 however if it holds back below 125.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 123.6 and 122.1
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 127.40 Target 128.60 and 130 SL 126.4
MCXARUN
9994500540
22 May 2008 10:21:03
Copper Copper fell for the second time in three days as rising inventories of the metal signal slowing demand in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest users.
Inventories monitored by London Metal Exchange have jumped 13 percent this month and today reached the highest level since March 17. China reported this month that its copper imports dropped 19 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier.
The price has dropped 12 percent since reaching a record May 5.The dollar fell as much as 0.5 percent against a weighted basket of the euro, yen and four other major currencies. The gauge has dropped 5.6 percent this year before today, helping to spur a jump in copper prices as traders sought a store of value.
WBMS Report:
The world copper market was in a surplus of less than 4,000 metric tons during the first quarter of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday. This compares with a deficit of 89,700 tons for the same period of 2007. Copper mine production for the first three months of the year was 3.66 million tons, 4% lower than in January to March 2007. Refined production rose 2.1% to 4.50 million tons.
ICSG Report
The global copper market was in a 60,000 metric ton deficit in February this year, leaving the market in a 60,000-ton deficit for the first two months of 2008, the International Copper Study Group said in a release late Wednesday.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 348.2 If market breaches below 348.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 346.1 and 344.1 However if it holds back above 352.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 354.3 and 356.4
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 351 Target 348, 346 and 344 SL 353.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel May traded very weak following LME movement while LME Inventory data and WBMS report were positive for the market.
WBMS Report: Nickel deficit in Q1 was 9,300 tons, WBMS says
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -150 MT to 49128 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1062.0 if market breaches below 1062.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1044.0 and 1018.0; however if it holds back above 1106.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1132.0 and 1150.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1085 Target 1060 and 1040 SL 1096
Zinc
Zinc declined on the London Metal Exchange on expectations that output cuts in China after last week's earthquake would have little effect on global supply. MCX Zinc May traded bearish following other metals; market was down by almost 3%.
Production may drop by 60,000 metric tons, or 1.5 percent of this year's estimated output, because of smelter damage, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said yesterday. The May 12 quake in Sichuan, China's strongest in 58 years halted some metals production in the region.
Chinese zinc miners in Sichuan province have halted ore production on government orders after the quake, according to researcher CBI China Co. Lead miners in the region are almost certain to have halted too, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu together produce around 20 percent of the nation's zinc and lead concentrate, 20 percent of the nation's refined zinc yet very little of the lead metal.
WBMS Report: lead deficit 31,000 tons; zinc surplus 84.500 tons, WBMS says
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was -75 MT to 128150 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 93.0 If market breaches below 93.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 91.7 and 89.9 However if it holds back above 96.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 97.9 and 99.2
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 94 Target 92 and 91 SL 95.20
Lead
MCX Lead May dropped by 2% following other metals at LME, market traded near days low of 90.55, while WBMS report was bullish for prices.
WBMS Report: LEAD DEFICIT 31,000 TONS, ZINC SURPLUS 84.500 TONS, WBMS SAYS
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was -600 MT to 63850 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.3 If market breaches below 90.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.3 and 88.1 However if it holds back above 92.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.8 and 94.8
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 92.40 Target 90.50 and 89 SL 93.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May traded strong following bullishness at LME despite the fact other metals traded very weak.
WBMS Report
The global Aluminium market was in a 381,000 metric ton surplus in the first quarter of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.
This compares with a 116,000 ton surplus in the same period last year. Demand for primary Aluminium was 9.31 million tons, 379,000 tons more than the equivalent total for January to March 2007. Production rose 643,000 tons to 9.69 million tons during the same period, the WBMS said.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 3900 MT to 1065625 MT
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 129.1 levels. If market breaches 129.1 may see prices to take further upside towards 130.6 and 132.6 however if it holds back below 125.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 123.6 and 122.1
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 127.40 Target 128.60 and 130 SL 126.4
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullions
22 May 2008 10:33:21
Bullion
Major Headlines:
Gold traded above $930 per ounce, following its near $12 rally the previous day, with mounting concerns over rising inflation keeping the precious metal well supported. Oil prices jumped to a fresh record high above $132 a barrel this morning, its encouraged investors to buy into bullion as a means of hedging against the effects of rising fuel costs.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar is also providing support to gold, as the precious metal serves as an alternative to the most dominant form of foreign currency reserves, and the interest rate differential between Europe and the US keeps the dollar under pressure and the correlation between oil and euro-dollar has steadily increased over recent years with the cheerleaders of the ECB's inflation dogmatic approach providing the intellectual reasoning for this correlation
Precious metals rallied after a report showed U.S. stockpiles of crude oil unexpectedly dropped, sending the price to more than $132 in New York for this first time. Crude has risen 99 percent in the past year. Heating oil also reached a record yesterday
Gold demand dropped to a five-year low in the first quarter as record prices and a slowing U.S. economy reduced purchases in every application for the metal except investment funds, the producer-funded World Gold Council said,
However, rising inflation fears in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to draw a halt to its interest rate cutting cycle, which may boost the dollar, and weigh on gold. Gains in gold are also being capped by a steep drop in demand from physical investors in the metal, with gold prices increasing by more than $200 per ounce over the last year
Gold demand dropped to a five-year low in the first quarter as record prices and a slowing U.S. economy reduced purchases in every application for the metal except investment funds, the producer-funded World Gold Council said,
Global use of 701.3 metric tons in the first quarter, down 16 percent from a year earlier, was the lowest since the start of 2003, the London-based council said in a report. The only growth was in China, Russia, Vietnam and Egypt. In India, the biggest user, consumption fell 50 percent.
U.S.Economy:
US BUDGET: The House is set to consider a Democratic-drafted fiscal year 2009 budget resolution that purports to bring the federal budget into balance and generate small surpluses in 2012 and 2013
Currencies update:
The ECB has kept its rate at a six-year high of 4 percent since last June and is widely anticipated to maintain its rate until the end of the year as inflation concerns remain to the fore. The single currency has been underpinned of late by hawkish comments from the ECB, which continues to sound worried about inflation.
Last week, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank must be extraordinarily attentive" to inflation and that it "is paying particularly close attention to wage negotiations in the euro area".
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12913 levels. If market breaches12913 may see prices to take further upside towards 12995 and 13146 however if it holds back below 12680 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12529 and 12447
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12770 Target 12855 and 12910 Stoploss at 12725
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25053 levels. If market breaches 25053 may see prices to take further upside towards 25267 and 25643 however if it holds back below 24463 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24087 and 23873
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24740 Target 24920 and 25140 Stop loss at 24590
MCXARUN
9994500540
22 May 2008 10:33:21
Bullion
Major Headlines:
Gold traded above $930 per ounce, following its near $12 rally the previous day, with mounting concerns over rising inflation keeping the precious metal well supported. Oil prices jumped to a fresh record high above $132 a barrel this morning, its encouraged investors to buy into bullion as a means of hedging against the effects of rising fuel costs.
Weakness in the U.S. dollar is also providing support to gold, as the precious metal serves as an alternative to the most dominant form of foreign currency reserves, and the interest rate differential between Europe and the US keeps the dollar under pressure and the correlation between oil and euro-dollar has steadily increased over recent years with the cheerleaders of the ECB's inflation dogmatic approach providing the intellectual reasoning for this correlation
Precious metals rallied after a report showed U.S. stockpiles of crude oil unexpectedly dropped, sending the price to more than $132 in New York for this first time. Crude has risen 99 percent in the past year. Heating oil also reached a record yesterday
Gold demand dropped to a five-year low in the first quarter as record prices and a slowing U.S. economy reduced purchases in every application for the metal except investment funds, the producer-funded World Gold Council said,
However, rising inflation fears in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to draw a halt to its interest rate cutting cycle, which may boost the dollar, and weigh on gold. Gains in gold are also being capped by a steep drop in demand from physical investors in the metal, with gold prices increasing by more than $200 per ounce over the last year
Gold demand dropped to a five-year low in the first quarter as record prices and a slowing U.S. economy reduced purchases in every application for the metal except investment funds, the producer-funded World Gold Council said,
Global use of 701.3 metric tons in the first quarter, down 16 percent from a year earlier, was the lowest since the start of 2003, the London-based council said in a report. The only growth was in China, Russia, Vietnam and Egypt. In India, the biggest user, consumption fell 50 percent.
U.S.Economy:
US BUDGET: The House is set to consider a Democratic-drafted fiscal year 2009 budget resolution that purports to bring the federal budget into balance and generate small surpluses in 2012 and 2013
Currencies update:
The ECB has kept its rate at a six-year high of 4 percent since last June and is widely anticipated to maintain its rate until the end of the year as inflation concerns remain to the fore. The single currency has been underpinned of late by hawkish comments from the ECB, which continues to sound worried about inflation.
Last week, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank must be extraordinarily attentive" to inflation and that it "is paying particularly close attention to wage negotiations in the euro area".
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12913 levels. If market breaches12913 may see prices to take further upside towards 12995 and 13146 however if it holds back below 12680 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12529 and 12447
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12770 Target 12855 and 12910 Stoploss at 12725
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 25053 levels. If market breaches 25053 may see prices to take further upside towards 25267 and 25643 however if it holds back below 24463 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 24087 and 23873
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24740 Target 24920 and 25140 Stop loss at 24590
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s just a crude oil story for precious metals. Nickel got the bashing among the base metals on lack of buyers and lower stop losses getting triggered. Zinc and lead are also trading with a softer bias on expectation that the Chinese earthquake will not prevent a decrease in global surplus. Copper traders are remaining on the sidelines. If and when there is a sustained Chinese demand, copper will zoom quickly and near $9000 (LME). Until Chinese demand does not come up, copper will trade with find sellers on rise. In the short term LME copper has to fall below $7950 for a bear zone.
The US dollar weakened against almost all the major currencies as stronger economic data from around the world highlighted the underperformance of the US economy. Australian, German, Canadian and New Zealand economic data all surprised to the upside. Federal Reserve officials slashed their forecasts for growth this year and raised projections for inflation as minutes revealed growing tension between the two objectives. Most policymakers viewed the decision to cut interest rates last month as a “close call”, the minutes said. Lagging effects of higher crude oil prices could further slowdown the US economy which can result in Fed cut interest rates once again. In the short term the Fed may wait and watch till September before making the next move, i.e., a hike or a cut. Till then the interest rate pause will continue.
Another job firing news, this time from American airlines. American said that it would eliminate flights, cut thousands of jobs and charge most passengers $15 to check a single piece of luggage, as surging oil prices exacerbated the crisis in the US airline industry. The number of employees is yet to be announced. If the new job cuts/firing in the US economy continues, we may see another round of US dollar bashing with the possibility of Euro/Usd trying to break 1.60. For the US dollar to gain, the crude oil price needs to halt its gains and consolidate for a fortnight.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $382.8
Intra day as long as copper holds $369 downside will be limited and copper will target $383 and $397.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The US dollar weakened against almost all the major currencies as stronger economic data from around the world highlighted the underperformance of the US economy. Australian, German, Canadian and New Zealand economic data all surprised to the upside. Federal Reserve officials slashed their forecasts for growth this year and raised projections for inflation as minutes revealed growing tension between the two objectives. Most policymakers viewed the decision to cut interest rates last month as a “close call”, the minutes said. Lagging effects of higher crude oil prices could further slowdown the US economy which can result in Fed cut interest rates once again. In the short term the Fed may wait and watch till September before making the next move, i.e., a hike or a cut. Till then the interest rate pause will continue.
Another job firing news, this time from American airlines. American said that it would eliminate flights, cut thousands of jobs and charge most passengers $15 to check a single piece of luggage, as surging oil prices exacerbated the crisis in the US airline industry. The number of employees is yet to be announced. If the new job cuts/firing in the US economy continues, we may see another round of US dollar bashing with the possibility of Euro/Usd trying to break 1.60. For the US dollar to gain, the crude oil price needs to halt its gains and consolidate for a fortnight.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $382.8
Intra day as long as copper holds $369 downside will be limited and copper will target $383 and $397.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
safetrade calls
GOLD
book profit on buy abv 12425/12475, for the day buy only abv 12660 S/L 12638 and T/p 12690-700/12740 upto 12800 OR buy ard 12450-455 S/L 12440 and T/p 12490 upto 12550, as long support 12300 & 12350 uptrend likely to continue (any time close above 12650/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 12300/11725/11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 23725/850, for the day buy abv 24450 & more abv 24500 S/L 24360 and T/p 24600-675/ 24750/close above 24500 test 25000-50 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 23840-50 S/L 23800 and T/p 24000/ 24100 (any time close below 23300/ 22750-300/21575-500/20400/19250/ 18775 bearish rally while close above 24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
EIA Crude oil inventory data schedule to release today. book profit on buy abv 5400, for the day buy only abv 5500 S/L 5475 and T/p 5530-50 OR sell below 5375-5350 S/L 5395 and T/p 5310-5290/ sustain below down rally, anytime close below 5120 bearish test 4930-50 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5500 for bullish rally while close below 5310/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 346.5-347/351, for the day buy only abv 355.5 S/L 354 and T/p 356.5/358/361-361.5/close above test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 347 S/L 348 and T/p 345.5-343.5 where good support seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on buy abv 12425/12475, for the day buy only abv 12660 S/L 12638 and T/p 12690-700/12740 upto 12800 OR buy ard 12450-455 S/L 12440 and T/p 12490 upto 12550, as long support 12300 & 12350 uptrend likely to continue (any time close above 12650/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 12300/11725/11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 23725/850, for the day buy abv 24450 & more abv 24500 S/L 24360 and T/p 24600-675/ 24750/close above 24500 test 25000-50 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 23840-50 S/L 23800 and T/p 24000/ 24100 (any time close below 23300/ 22750-300/21575-500/20400/19250/ 18775 bearish rally while close above 24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
EIA Crude oil inventory data schedule to release today. book profit on buy abv 5400, for the day buy only abv 5500 S/L 5475 and T/p 5530-50 OR sell below 5375-5350 S/L 5395 and T/p 5310-5290/ sustain below down rally, anytime close below 5120 bearish test 4930-50 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5500 for bullish rally while close below 5310/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 346.5-347/351, for the day buy only abv 355.5 S/L 354 and T/p 356.5/358/361-361.5/close above test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 347 S/L 348 and T/p 345.5-343.5 where good support seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook
21 May 2008 11:09:11
Gold prices continued to escalate, and traded above $920 yesterday, supported by weakness in the dollar and oil’s extended rally to new highs.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.40 - $923.40 and last quoted at $918.35 ($903.95).
Traders were cautious ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting, which is scheduled for release today.
The dollar had edged higher on Monday after the index of leading economic indicators in US showed a rise for the second straight month in April. The index rose 0.1% in April, identical to the gain in March after falling for the five prior months.
But on Friday, a more-than-expected fall in US consumer sentiments had renewed concerns about the economy. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index in May fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April against the expectation for 61.0.
According to the data released by US Labor Department on Thursday, the number of people filing for the first time for unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000 in the week ended May 10. But the four-week average of initial claims fell 1,000 to 365,750.
The continuing claims also recorded an increase, by 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3; while the four-week average of continuing claims increased by 15,250 to 3.02 million.
The data from US Labor Department released on Wednesday showed that inflation had moderated in April, with the Consumer Price Index recording a rise of 0.2%.
Mean while, stronger-than-expected GDP data from the euro-zone provided support for the Euro. The European Union's statistical agency Eurostat reported that gross domestic product across the 15-nation euro-zone expanded at a 0.7% quarterly pace in the first three months of the year, gaining 2.2% year-on-year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech last week had said that the US central bank's efforts to provide liquidity to financial markets in an effort to alleviate the credit crunch had helped but that markets remain stressed.
As per data released last week, US retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in April, following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. But it was slightly stronger compared to the expectation for a 0.3% drop.
Crude oil July in NYMEX traded as high as $129.60 a barrel and settled at $128.98 ($127.05).
Oil prices thrived on potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high oil prices.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $904.00 – $923.40 and closed at $919.70 ($906.50).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 919.00; bearish below $ 914.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
21 May 2008 11:09:11
Gold prices continued to escalate, and traded above $920 yesterday, supported by weakness in the dollar and oil’s extended rally to new highs.
International spot gold traded in the range $902.40 - $923.40 and last quoted at $918.35 ($903.95).
Traders were cautious ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting, which is scheduled for release today.
The dollar had edged higher on Monday after the index of leading economic indicators in US showed a rise for the second straight month in April. The index rose 0.1% in April, identical to the gain in March after falling for the five prior months.
But on Friday, a more-than-expected fall in US consumer sentiments had renewed concerns about the economy. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index in May fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April against the expectation for 61.0.
According to the data released by US Labor Department on Thursday, the number of people filing for the first time for unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000 in the week ended May 10. But the four-week average of initial claims fell 1,000 to 365,750.
The continuing claims also recorded an increase, by 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3; while the four-week average of continuing claims increased by 15,250 to 3.02 million.
The data from US Labor Department released on Wednesday showed that inflation had moderated in April, with the Consumer Price Index recording a rise of 0.2%.
Mean while, stronger-than-expected GDP data from the euro-zone provided support for the Euro. The European Union's statistical agency Eurostat reported that gross domestic product across the 15-nation euro-zone expanded at a 0.7% quarterly pace in the first three months of the year, gaining 2.2% year-on-year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech last week had said that the US central bank's efforts to provide liquidity to financial markets in an effort to alleviate the credit crunch had helped but that markets remain stressed.
As per data released last week, US retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in April, following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. But it was slightly stronger compared to the expectation for a 0.3% drop.
Crude oil July in NYMEX traded as high as $129.60 a barrel and settled at $128.98 ($127.05).
Oil prices thrived on potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high oil prices.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $904.00 – $923.40 and closed at $919.70 ($906.50).
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 919.00; bearish below $ 914.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
21 May 2008 10:40:20
Major Headlines:
Oil surged to a fresh all-time high at $129.29 a barrel in New York as fresh supply concerns combined with Opec's reluctance to increase output to push prices upwards.
A 24-hour strike at the French port of Fos-Lavera near Marseille, Europe's second biggest oil hub, is also contributing to fears of market tightness, with reports of five oil tankers unable to enter the harbor
Credit Suisse Tuesday raised its average oil price forecast for 2008 to $120 a barrel from $91 a barrel. The investment bank also upped its average price forecast for 2009 to $110 a barrel, with prices expected to remain above $100 a barrel in the long-term due to the rising cost of production and limited supply growth
Surging diesel demand in China has heightened supply fears, as the world's second largest energy consumer moves to ensure adequate supplies for earthquake relief efforts in Sichuan province and this summer's Olympic games.
Despite record prices, the OPEC has maintained that markets remain well supplied, with the cartel's President Chakib Khelil yesterday indicating the group was unlikely to increase output at it's next meeting in September.
While Saudi Arabia -- the cartel's dominant member -- has boosted oil output by 300,000 barrels per day to meet demand and compensate for other producers’ lower output, and the market appeared to be overlooking this for now as the supply picture remains unclear. Militant action in Opec member Nigeria
Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar fell against the euro, Returns from investing in commodities, especially energy, have surged this year as investors sought alternatives to stocks. Natural gas has gained 49 percent and oil is 34 percent higher
Egypt plans to raise natural-gas export prices in line with the increase in global energy prices, the nation's oil minister said. Egypt, Africa's second-biggest gas producer behind Algeria, sells the fuel in Spain, France, Italy and the U.K
MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5513 levels. If market reaches 5513may see prices to take further upside towards 5562 and 5643 however if it holds back below 5383 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5302and5253
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5410 Target 5480 and 5540 Stop loss 5375
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 495.60 levels. If market breaches 495.60may see prices to take further upside towards 503.80and 515.60 however if it holds back below 475.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 463.80 and 455.60
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 484 Target 487 and 495 Stop loss at 480
MCXARUN
9994500540
21 May 2008 10:40:20
Major Headlines:
Oil surged to a fresh all-time high at $129.29 a barrel in New York as fresh supply concerns combined with Opec's reluctance to increase output to push prices upwards.
A 24-hour strike at the French port of Fos-Lavera near Marseille, Europe's second biggest oil hub, is also contributing to fears of market tightness, with reports of five oil tankers unable to enter the harbor
Credit Suisse Tuesday raised its average oil price forecast for 2008 to $120 a barrel from $91 a barrel. The investment bank also upped its average price forecast for 2009 to $110 a barrel, with prices expected to remain above $100 a barrel in the long-term due to the rising cost of production and limited supply growth
Surging diesel demand in China has heightened supply fears, as the world's second largest energy consumer moves to ensure adequate supplies for earthquake relief efforts in Sichuan province and this summer's Olympic games.
Despite record prices, the OPEC has maintained that markets remain well supplied, with the cartel's President Chakib Khelil yesterday indicating the group was unlikely to increase output at it's next meeting in September.
While Saudi Arabia -- the cartel's dominant member -- has boosted oil output by 300,000 barrels per day to meet demand and compensate for other producers’ lower output, and the market appeared to be overlooking this for now as the supply picture remains unclear. Militant action in Opec member Nigeria
Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar fell against the euro, Returns from investing in commodities, especially energy, have surged this year as investors sought alternatives to stocks. Natural gas has gained 49 percent and oil is 34 percent higher
Egypt plans to raise natural-gas export prices in line with the increase in global energy prices, the nation's oil minister said. Egypt, Africa's second-biggest gas producer behind Algeria, sells the fuel in Spain, France, Italy and the U.K
MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5513 levels. If market reaches 5513may see prices to take further upside towards 5562 and 5643 however if it holds back below 5383 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5302and5253
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5410 Target 5480 and 5540 Stop loss 5375
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 495.60 levels. If market breaches 495.60may see prices to take further upside towards 503.80and 515.60 however if it holds back below 475.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 463.80 and 455.60
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 484 Target 487 and 495 Stop loss at 480
MCXARUN
9994500540
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