MUMBAI, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Following is a snapshot of
analysts' expectations from the federal budget compiled from
brokerage reports.
Indian Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram will present
the budget for 2008/09 on Feb 29.
AUTOMOBILES
------------
- Uniform excise duty rates of 16 percent for all cars, large
and small.
- Reduction in excise duty on two wheelers to 12 or 8 percent
from 16 percent.
- Reduction in the excise duty on buses to 16 percent from 24
percent.
BANKING
---------
- Raising FII/FDI limit in state-run banks to 49 percent from
20 percent.
- Relaxation in the lock-in period to three years from five
years for bank deposits to qualify for tax benefits.
- Interest earned on long-term lending to infrastructure
industries to be exempted from income tax.
CAPITAL GOODS
-------------
- Reduction in excise duty on air conditioners meeting energy
efficiency guidelines to 8 percent from 16 percent.
- Reduction in excise duty on power equipment to 8 percent
from 16 percent.
- Rationalisation of tax structures with respect to dividend
paid by subsidiaries and special purpose vehicles.
CEMENT
-------
- Abolish the 5 percent import duty on coal and pet coke.
- Value Added Tax on cement and clinker be reduced and
brought in line with similar construction materials, like steel,
to 4 percent from 12.5 percent.
CONSUMER GOODS
--------------
- Excise exemption on biscuits similar to other food mixes
granted exemption in the last budget.
- Reduction in excise duty on processed foods to 8 percent
from 16 percent.
FERTILISER
----------
- Removal or reduction of customs duties on inputs like
liquefied natural gas.
- Reduction in customs duty on sulphuric acid to 5 percent
from 7.5 percent.
- General sales tax exemption for basic raw materials like
natural gas, naphtha, etc.
- Reduction in excise duty on pesticides to 8 percent from 16
percent.
HEALTHCARE
----------
- Infrastructure status for hospitals with certain
eligibility norms.
- Relaxation of income tax for mergers and acquisitions with
conditions.
HOTELS
-------
- Raising depreciation on hotel buildings to 20 percent from
10 percent.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
----------------------
- Extension of Software Technology Park scheme, which is set
to end by 2008/09.
- Reduction in excise duty on personal computers to 8 percent
from 12 percent.
- Abolish excise duty of 8 percent on packaged software sold
over the counter.
LOGISTICS
----------
- Infrastructure status for warehousing and shipping
industry.
MEDIA
-----
- Abolish custom duty on digital exhibition equipment.
- Abolish 16 percent excice duty on set-top boxes.
METALS
-------
- Reduce excise duty on long steel products to 8 percent from
16 percent.
- Abolish 5 percent customs duty on import of scrap.
- Increase in export tax to 2,500 rupees per tonne from 1,500
rupees on key raw materials for steel.
OIL & GAS
----------
- Cut in excise duty on petrol and diesel.
- Removal of service tax on exploration activities.
PHARMACEUTICALS
---------------
- Reduction in maximum retail price-based excise duty to 8 or
12 percent from 16 percent.
- Excise duty exemption for all the 354 drugs specified in
the national list of essential medicines.
- Research & development tax exemption given to generic
pharmaceutical companies to be extended to the hived off, pure
play R&D companies.
- Life saving drugs to be exempted from customs duty of 5-10
percent.
POWER
------
- Extension of tax holidays for ultra-mega power projects
till 2017.
- Easing external commercial borrowing norms to enable
mobilisation of funds from abroad.
- Income tax exemptions for power infrastrcture bonds.
- Cut in excise duty on power equipment and other inputs to 8
percent from 16 percent.
RETAIL
--------
- Industry status to retail.
REAL ESTATE
------------
- Lowering the foreign direct investment threshold below
50,000 square-feet.
- Uniformity in stamp duty across states.
- Clarity on norms governing real estate investment trusts
with adequate tax benefits similar to mutual funds.
SUGAR
------
- Lowering of excise duty on ethanol to give a boost to the
mandatory blending with petrol.
- Uniform and lower sales tax among states.
- Excise duty structure on molasses of 750 rupees per tonne
to be replaced with an ad-valorem duty structure.
TEXTILES
---------
- Reduction of excise duty on man-made yarn to 4 percent from
8 percent.
- To allow contract labour.
- Reduction in license fees to a uniform 6 percent of
adjusted gross revenue.
- Removal of customs duty for telecoms equipment from the
current rates of 4-37 percent.
- Exemption of service tax on broadband services for the next
five years.
Collated from the reports of following brokerages: Batlivala &
Karani Securities, Edelweiss Securities, Kotak Securities,
Religare Securities and Sharekhan.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, February 22, 2008
Energy intraday
· Crude oil rose inNew York on speculation global demand will continue to grow after prices reached a record.
· Global oil demand will rise 1.7 million barrels a day to 87.6 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Feb. 13. The U.S. Energy Department and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also expect daily consumption to rise by more than 1 million barrels this year.
· The IEA, the adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, predicted Nov. 7 that Chinese and Indian oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply crunch as soon as 2015.
· Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Feb. 15.
· Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 39,922 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 12,474 contracts, or 45 percent, from a week earlier.
· Reports of explosion at Alon USA Energy Inc.'s Big Spring refinery in Texas on Monday sent crude futures higher. As per Dow Jones newswires report, a person familiar with the plant said Tuesday that full restart of the 70000 bpd refinery could take over six months.
· Despite calls to raise output, some Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output at its March 5 meet taking into consideration weakening economy and demand prospects and rising inventories. Iran this week said that a cut in output cannot be ruled out.
· After U.S. President and International Energy Agency, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday reiterated calls for Opec to increase crude production to boost the world's small capacity cushion, as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
· Concerns about supply from Nigeria rose after Nigeria's Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, promised renewed attacks on oil facilities if the country's government did not explain whether Henry Okah, the group's supposed leader, had been killed in a military hospital as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
Weekly Inventory Update:
· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks rose by 4.2 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.6 mln barrel rise.
· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell 4.5 mln barrels against expectations for a fall of 950,000 barrels. Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period.
· Gasoline stocks rose above analysts' expectations, rising by 1.1 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 450,000 barrels.
· Refineries meanwhile operated at 83.5 pct of their capacity, the EIA said lower than 85.1 pct in the previous week. Analysts had expected a drop of 0.2 percentage points.
MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3900 for the target of 3980 and 4020 with stop loss at 3876
MCX Natural gas March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Buy at 354 for the target of 365 and 372 with stop loss at 351
MCXARUN
9994500540
· Global oil demand will rise 1.7 million barrels a day to 87.6 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Feb. 13. The U.S. Energy Department and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also expect daily consumption to rise by more than 1 million barrels this year.
· The IEA, the adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, predicted Nov. 7 that Chinese and Indian oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply crunch as soon as 2015.
· Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Feb. 15.
· Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 39,922 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 12,474 contracts, or 45 percent, from a week earlier.
· Reports of explosion at Alon USA Energy Inc.'s Big Spring refinery in Texas on Monday sent crude futures higher. As per Dow Jones newswires report, a person familiar with the plant said Tuesday that full restart of the 70000 bpd refinery could take over six months.
· Despite calls to raise output, some Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output at its March 5 meet taking into consideration weakening economy and demand prospects and rising inventories. Iran this week said that a cut in output cannot be ruled out.
· After U.S. President and International Energy Agency, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday reiterated calls for Opec to increase crude production to boost the world's small capacity cushion, as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
· Concerns about supply from Nigeria rose after Nigeria's Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, promised renewed attacks on oil facilities if the country's government did not explain whether Henry Okah, the group's supposed leader, had been killed in a military hospital as reported by Dow Jones newswires.
Weekly Inventory Update:
· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks rose by 4.2 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.6 mln barrel rise.
· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell 4.5 mln barrels against expectations for a fall of 950,000 barrels. Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period.
· Gasoline stocks rose above analysts' expectations, rising by 1.1 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 450,000 barrels.
· Refineries meanwhile operated at 83.5 pct of their capacity, the EIA said lower than 85.1 pct in the previous week. Analysts had expected a drop of 0.2 percentage points.
MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3900 for the target of 3980 and 4020 with stop loss at 3876
MCX Natural gas March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
Natural gas March: Buy at 354 for the target of 365 and 372 with stop loss at 351
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals intraday
· Basemetals moved up on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on fund buying and gaining strength from robust gold and oil. MCX Copper most active February is currently trading at Rs 334.40/kg, up by Rs 8.40/kg. It tossed in the range Rs 327.30-336/kg. Nickel february contract traded at Rs 1149/kg, rising by Rs 32/kg. Zinc most active February contract is currently trading at Rs 100.10/kg, up by Rs 4.10/kg.
· On Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper most active May contract settled at CNY67,110/tonne, up CNY440/tonne, registering gains for the fourth straight day in a row.
· Zinc prices surged in Asia on speculation supply may lag behind demand after China's worst snowstorms in decades reduced output in the world's largest producer of the metal.
· Output cuts at smelters, including the country's largest producer Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., have driven zinc prices up 11 percent in the past month. Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co. cut output since Jan. 29 because of power shortages, the Yunnan province-based company said today. Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. said yesterday it has reduced output since Feb. 11.
· Western Mining Co., which mines zinc, lead and copper inChina, plans to buy 93 million yuan worth of zinc and indium ingots from a smelter inChina'sQinghai province to meet deliveries. The company will buy 3,800 tons of zinc and 5,618 kilograms of indium ingots from Qinghai Summit Zinc Co., the China Securities Journal reported Feb. 18.
· LME-monitored inventories fell 2,250 tons to 135,375 tons, the lowest since Oct. 10. They have declined 31 percent this year. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they were at 179,244 tons, a level last seen October 2006. They averaged 3.5 days of global consumption, compared with last year's 4.9 days average
· Copper was in deficit by 161,000 tons in 2007, a swing from a surplus of 278,000 tons, according to data released yesterday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Demand in China, the world's largest user, increased to 4.861 million tons, 35 percent more than a year ago, the Ware, England-based group said.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 328 for the target of 336 and 339 with stop loss at 325.50
MCX Zinc Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb:
MCX Nickel Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Feb: Buy at 1125-30 for the target of 1165 and 1175 with stop loss at 1113
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Feb: Buy at 130 for the target of 135 and 139 with stop loss at 127.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
· On Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper most active May contract settled at CNY67,110/tonne, up CNY440/tonne, registering gains for the fourth straight day in a row.
· Zinc prices surged in Asia on speculation supply may lag behind demand after China's worst snowstorms in decades reduced output in the world's largest producer of the metal.
· Output cuts at smelters, including the country's largest producer Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., have driven zinc prices up 11 percent in the past month. Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co. cut output since Jan. 29 because of power shortages, the Yunnan province-based company said today. Yunnan Chihong Zinc and Germanium Co. said yesterday it has reduced output since Feb. 11.
· Western Mining Co., which mines zinc, lead and copper inChina, plans to buy 93 million yuan worth of zinc and indium ingots from a smelter inChina'sQinghai province to meet deliveries. The company will buy 3,800 tons of zinc and 5,618 kilograms of indium ingots from Qinghai Summit Zinc Co., the China Securities Journal reported Feb. 18.
· LME-monitored inventories fell 2,250 tons to 135,375 tons, the lowest since Oct. 10. They have declined 31 percent this year. Including those tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, they were at 179,244 tons, a level last seen October 2006. They averaged 3.5 days of global consumption, compared with last year's 4.9 days average
· Copper was in deficit by 161,000 tons in 2007, a swing from a surplus of 278,000 tons, according to data released yesterday by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Demand in China, the world's largest user, increased to 4.861 million tons, 35 percent more than a year ago, the Ware, England-based group said.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 328 for the target of 336 and 339 with stop loss at 325.50
MCX Zinc Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Feb:
MCX Nickel Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Feb: Buy at 1125-30 for the target of 1165 and 1175 with stop loss at 1113
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Feb: Buy at 130 for the target of 135 and 139 with stop loss at 127.05
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
· Gold futures rose to a record $958.40 an ounce as a slumping dollar and soaring commodity costs boosted the appeal of the precious metal as an inflation hedge. Silver rose to the highest since 1980. April gold is trading at new contract highs, encouraged that today's poor economic news will help the Fed keep interest rates low. May copper is also trading at new contract highs.
· MCX Gold April rose to a high near Rs. 12171 per 10 gram and MCX Silver March touched the high near Rs. 23020 following international clues.
· International spot gold touched high near $ 954 and Silver registered days high near $18.06 following fund buy and weak dollar movement, rising crude oil prices also supported the movement.
· Gold has more than tripled in price during a seven-year rally. The metal surged 31 percent in 2007 as the Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest-rate cuts aimed at bolstering the economy, while inflation rose at the fastest pace since 1990. Fed policy makers intend to keep rates low ``for a time,'' minutes from their meetings showed yesterday.
· The federal-funds rate is at 3 percent, down from 5.25 percent in mid-September. Gold has gained 31 percent since Sept. 18, when the central bank started cutting borrowing costs. Interest-rate futures show a 92 percent chance the Fed will lower the benchmark rate to 2.5 percent by March 18, compared with a 70 percent chance a week ago.
· Last year, consumer prices rose 4.1 percent, the most since 1990. A dollar index, a measure against a weighted basket of the yen, euro and pound and three other major currencies, fell to 74.484 on Nov. 23, the lowest since the currency index started trading in 1973.
· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has risen 0.5 percent to 631 metric tons this year. It reached a record 653 metric tons on Jan. 14.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals rose in spot markets as sentiments turned bullish following the gains in crude oil.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 195 to finish at Rs 12,200 per 10 gm and gold (.999) by Rs 155 at Rs 12,255/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 200 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,555/kg, up by Rs 420. Arrivals in silver were at 350 kilos.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) edged higher by Rs 170 to end at Rs 12,180/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 175 to end at Rs 12,235/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,750/kg, up by Rs 1,600.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) elevated by Rs 170 to close at Rs 12,150/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 180 to close at Rs 12,220/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,300/kg, up by Rs 460.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Sell at 12140-060 for the target of 12100 and 12000 with stop loss at 12184
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22950 for the target of 22850 and 227500 with stop loss at 23190
MCXARUN
9994500540
· MCX Gold April rose to a high near Rs. 12171 per 10 gram and MCX Silver March touched the high near Rs. 23020 following international clues.
· International spot gold touched high near $ 954 and Silver registered days high near $18.06 following fund buy and weak dollar movement, rising crude oil prices also supported the movement.
· Gold has more than tripled in price during a seven-year rally. The metal surged 31 percent in 2007 as the Federal Reserve initiated a series of interest-rate cuts aimed at bolstering the economy, while inflation rose at the fastest pace since 1990. Fed policy makers intend to keep rates low ``for a time,'' minutes from their meetings showed yesterday.
· The federal-funds rate is at 3 percent, down from 5.25 percent in mid-September. Gold has gained 31 percent since Sept. 18, when the central bank started cutting borrowing costs. Interest-rate futures show a 92 percent chance the Fed will lower the benchmark rate to 2.5 percent by March 18, compared with a 70 percent chance a week ago.
· Last year, consumer prices rose 4.1 percent, the most since 1990. A dollar index, a measure against a weighted basket of the yen, euro and pound and three other major currencies, fell to 74.484 on Nov. 23, the lowest since the currency index started trading in 1973.
· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has risen 0.5 percent to 631 metric tons this year. It reached a record 653 metric tons on Jan. 14.
Indian Bullion Spot Market
Precious metals rose in spot markets as sentiments turned bullish following the gains in crude oil.
· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 195 to finish at Rs 12,200 per 10 gm and gold (.999) by Rs 155 at Rs 12,255/10gm respectively. Arrivals in gold were at 200 kilos. Silver (.999) closed at Rs 22,555/kg, up by Rs 420. Arrivals in silver were at 350 kilos.
· Ahmedabad gold (995) edged higher by Rs 170 to end at Rs 12,180/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 175 to end at Rs 12,235/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 23,750/kg, up by Rs 1,600.
· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) elevated by Rs 170 to close at Rs 12,150/10gm and gold(.999) by Rs 180 to close at Rs 12,220/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) ends at Rs 22,300/kg, up by Rs 460.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Sell at 12140-060 for the target of 12100 and 12000 with stop loss at 12184
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 22950 for the target of 22850 and 227500 with stop loss at 23190
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3897 BEARISH BELOW 3880
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12106 BEARISH BELOW 12055
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22890 BEARISH BELOW 22790
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 333.10 BEARISH BELOW 332
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 132.50 BEARISH BELOW 132.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1143 BEARISH BELOW 1136
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.90 BEARISH BELOW 98.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12106 BEARISH BELOW 12055
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22890 BEARISH BELOW 22790
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 333.10 BEARISH BELOW 332
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 132.50 BEARISH BELOW 132.00
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1143 BEARISH BELOW 1136
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 98.90 BEARISH BELOW 98.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
For safe trade
GOLD
OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12175 S/L 12150 and T/p 12225-250 upto 12300 OR buy ard 11900-910 S/L 11890 and T/p 11950-970/12025 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725, for the day buy only abv 23025 S/L 22940 and T/p 23125-200 upto 23300 OR buy ard 22525-40 S/L 22500 and T/p 22625-750/22850 (any time close below 21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/18625/ 18250/18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 23025-23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L hit, for the day buy ard 3845-48 S/L 3840 and T/p 3895-3910/3935 OR sell ard 3922-26 S/L 3930 and T/p 3900-3880, now only sustain abv 3960 & 3990 uprally again to test 4050 atleast upto 4100 in days to come (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day sell ard 336.8-337.25 S/L 337.5 and T/p 334.5-332 OR buy ard 327.8-328 S/L 327 and T/p 330-332 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 315.5/302.5/286.5/278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
OUR WORDS.. sustain abv 11685 test 11760-75 atleast AND abv 11875 12000 atleast AND abv 12000 12140-150 atleast ALL ACHIEVED book profit on buy abv 11600/11875/12000, for the day buy only abv 12175 S/L 12150 and T/p 12225-250 upto 12300 OR buy ard 11900-910 S/L 11890 and T/p 11950-970/12025 (any time close above 12175 bullish while close below 11575-475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
OUR WORDS abv 22450 test 22700-750 atleast AND abv 22725 test 23000 also ACHIEVED, book profit on buy abv 22725, for the day buy only abv 23025 S/L 22940 and T/p 23125-200 upto 23300 OR buy ard 22525-40 S/L 22500 and T/p 22625-750/22850 (any time close below 21940/21700-475/20950/ 20300/19725/19375/ 19000/18625/ 18250/18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 23025-23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
our S/L hit, for the day buy ard 3845-48 S/L 3840 and T/p 3895-3910/3935 OR sell ard 3922-26 S/L 3930 and T/p 3900-3880, now only sustain abv 3960 & 3990 uprally again to test 4050 atleast upto 4100 in days to come (now crude need to close above 3985 for bullish rally while close below 3840/3790/3635-3590/3475/3395/3350/3090/2810 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
OUR WORDS sustain abv 293 test 298-300 atleast AND sustain abv 312.5 test 316-317 atleast.. ACHIEVED we book profit on buy abv 310.5/316/ 326/328/332, for the day sell ard 336.8-337.25 S/L 337.5 and T/p 334.5-332 OR buy ard 327.8-328 S/L 327 and T/p 330-332 (upside strong rally only on close above 337.5/348 while close below 315.5/302.5/286.5/278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
mcx charts
MCX gold day chart
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MCX silver day chart
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MCXARUN
9994500540
click the chart to enlarge
MCX silver day chart
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MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy Futures
Crude Oil:
Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.67 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.86 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.86 - Highest High in last 10-Days
100.28 - High
100.13 - Last Price
100.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
99.84 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
99.66 - Low
96.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
95.00 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.92 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.94 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
91.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
88.82 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.24 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.06 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
81.60 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.77). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.77 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
9.110 - Highest High in last 50-Days
9.110 - Highest High in last 10-Days
9.067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.975 - High
8.958 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.933 - Last Price
8.909 - Low
8.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.607 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.188 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.971 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.879 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.879 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.683 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.483 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.228 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.67). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.67 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
100.86 - Highest High in last 50-Days
100.86 - Highest High in last 10-Days
100.28 - High
100.13 - Last Price
100.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
99.84 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
99.66 - Low
96.32 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
95.00 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
92.92 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
91.94 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
91.41 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
88.82 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
86.24 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
85.06 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
81.60 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Natural Gas:
Natural Gas contracts are weaker this morning extending the prior sessions weaker close. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also bullish. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days and should be watched.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term decline over the next few days.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 68.77). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 68.77 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is overbought and appears to be weakening. Look for a potential top in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
9.110 - Highest High in last 50-Days
9.110 - Highest High in last 10-Days
9.067 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.975 - High
8.958 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
8.933 - Last Price
8.909 - Low
8.671 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.607 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
8.188 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.971 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.879 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.879 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.683 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.483 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.228 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper Futures
Copper:
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 71.51). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 71.51 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.7882 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.7535 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.7535 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.7535 - High
3.7525 - Last Price
3.7282 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.7175 - Low
3.6016 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.5838 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3663 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3648 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2912 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2760 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.2402 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2283 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0417 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper trade on ACCESS is showing higher prices in recent activity reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 71.51). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 71.51 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
3.7882 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
3.7535 - Highest High in last 50-Days
3.7535 - Highest High in last 10-Days
3.7535 - High
3.7525 - Last Price
3.7282 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
3.7175 - Low
3.6016 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
3.5838 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3663 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
3.3648 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2912 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2760 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
3.2402 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
3.2283 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
3.0417 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
2.8530 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Precious Metals Futures
COMEX Gold:
Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Bearish momentum has also been confirmed by the MACD, which has issued a bearish signal. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 65.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 65.56 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
949.20 - Highest High in last 50-Days
949.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
948.50 - High
944.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
943.80 - Last Price
941.00 - Low
937.13 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
931.41 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
920.86 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
911.31 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
905.80 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
899.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
892.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
878.16 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
832.85 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
756.16 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
17.945 - High
17.945 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.945 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.870 - Last Price
17.868 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
17.785 - Low
17.713 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
17.437 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
17.347 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.804 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.577 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
16.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.146 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.956 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.127 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.028 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold trading is higher in ACCESS trade this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Bearish momentum has also been confirmed by the MACD, which has issued a bearish signal. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: MACD has issued a bullish signal, as the signal line has crossed above the True MACD. With the current long term trend, based on a 50 day simple moving average, to the upside, this suggests that prices will continue to rise for a time. Furthermore, the market just put in a 50-Day new high. Look for the upward trend to continue.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 65.56). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 65.56 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
949.20 - Highest High in last 50-Days
949.20 - Highest High in last 10-Days
948.50 - High
944.22 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
943.80 - Last Price
941.00 - Low
937.13 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
931.41 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
920.86 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
911.31 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
905.80 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
899.50 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
892.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
878.16 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
832.85 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
789.60 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
756.16 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
COMEX Silver:
Silver futures are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. As the ADX is rising it indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bullish territory. Also, the market just made a 50-Day new high here, indicating further strength. Look for more new highs.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 69.40). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 69.40 the market is somewhat overbought, but given the 50-Day new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices. Despite this overbought condition the market may become more overbought before turning lower. Also, given that we posted a 50-Day new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is higher. As a result, the market will look for additional weakening in prices before turning bearish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
17.945 - High
17.945 - Highest High in last 50-Days
17.945 - Highest High in last 10-Days
17.870 - Last Price
17.868 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
17.785 - Low
17.713 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
17.437 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
17.347 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
16.804 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
16.577 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
16.500 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
16.146 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
15.956 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
15.127 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
14.028 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
13.740 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
A great performance by all metals this week on the back of a lack of major market moving news. No News is Good News for the markets. I am concerned over the pace of the rise of the metals especially of the base metals. The rise has been too swift. When we write that LME copper will to rise to $9000 and more in the next two to three months, it does not mean that LME copper rises $100-$150 every day. Why is it happening? Earlier manufacturers were maintaining reduced their inventory levels on expectations on a further fall in prices. Now as copper prices zoom, manufactures have increased their copper inventory and have also started hedging in the future markets as copper price rise has caught them off guard. Copper demand in the futures market as well as the physical market rises. The same is with all the base metals.
Gold has risen $50 in one week. At this pace gold should rise to $1200 by March. Scary investors are investing in gold as they expect Fed to cut interest rates every meeting to nearly zero. I have mentioned in the past also that interest rate cuts are no solution to excesses done by the Fed and other central banks. Even one bit of positive economic numbers next week from the US can reverse gold and equity gains. Gold rises at $50 a week and the subsequent high volatility will harm the jewelers as they sit idle.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$942.0
$956.30 priced target achieved. Gold has to break $959-$965 zone for $978 and $989. Key support at $938, $931.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $102.0
Failure of crude oil to break $102 by next week will result in a fall to $93.20 and $89.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold has risen $50 in one week. At this pace gold should rise to $1200 by March. Scary investors are investing in gold as they expect Fed to cut interest rates every meeting to nearly zero. I have mentioned in the past also that interest rate cuts are no solution to excesses done by the Fed and other central banks. Even one bit of positive economic numbers next week from the US can reverse gold and equity gains. Gold rises at $50 a week and the subsequent high volatility will harm the jewelers as they sit idle.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$942.0
$956.30 priced target achieved. Gold has to break $959-$965 zone for $978 and $989. Key support at $938, $931.60
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $102.0
Failure of crude oil to break $102 by next week will result in a fall to $93.20 and $89.60
MCXARUN
9994500540
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