nymex crude intraday

DGCX Crude oil : Drops on profit booking
10 June 2008 12:25:43



Oil prices retreated yesterday due to profit booking from the record high levels.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $134.91 ($138.54), after trading in the range $138.25 - $133.00.



The price of benchmark contract of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange had soared over $10 to a new all-time high of $139.12 a barrel on Friday, recording the biggest one-day gain in dollar terms, as geo-political tensions were ignited by Israel’s threats to strike on Iran over its nuclear programme.



Israel's Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz on Friday commented that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites could not be ruled out if Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons.



Another drop in inventories also fuelled the rally. US Crude supplies had dropped by 4.8 million barrels to 306.8 million for the week ended May 30, according to the latest update by US Energy Department, taking the total fall in supplies in three weeks to around 19 million barrels.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.



The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.



Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.



Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.



On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.



DWTI (July) traded in the range $138.50 - $134.00 and closed at $134.75 ($138.70).



Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)


Expected to get supports at $133, $128 and $121.40; resistances are $137.65, $142.40 and $149.70.



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 135.70; bearish below 135.30

MCXARUN
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comex gold outlook

DGCX Gold reverses gains on Dollar recovery, fall in Oil prices
10 June 2008 12:23:28



Gold reversed Friday’s gains and fell below $900, as the dollar recovered against the euro and oil prices retreated from the record high levels.



International spot gold traded in the range $908.70 - $890.40 and last quoted at $891.90 ($901.35).



A rise in pending home sales helped the dollar to bounce back. The National Association of Realtors’ April pending home sales index, which is considered as a leading indicator of existing home sales, rose 6.3% in April.



Dollar had fallen sharply towards the end of last week, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Labor Department reported a more-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in May to 5.5%, against the expected 5.1%. The total number of unemployed persons increased by 861,000 to 8.5 million in May, after seasonal adjustment, as per the government's Household Survey Data. However, the non-farm payrolls fell by 49,000.



Also according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 18,000 to 357,000 in the week ended May 31. The four-week average of initial claims also dropped, falling by 2,750 to 368,500. Continuing claims fell by 16,000 in the week ended May 24, dropping to 3.09 million. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.08 million, up 15,250.



The euro had strengthened after the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted at a possible future interest-rate hike, amid surging inflation pressures in the euro-zone. According to a preliminary estimate by the statistical agency Eurostat, the consumer inflation hit an annualized pace of 3.6% in May, well above the ECB's target of just below 2%.



Eurostat data early last week had shown a slight upward revision of the first-quarter euro-zone gross domestic product, according to which the economy grew by 0.8% against the previous estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth was unrevised at 2.2%.



The ECB on May 5th chose to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 4 %.



The Fed chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech last week had expressed concerns over the in weakness in dollar, and cited it was contributing to an unwelcome rise in US inflation. His comments generated expectations that the Fed might adopt steps to guard against inflation risks.



The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for May rose to 49.6% from 48.6% in April, against the consensus expectation of 48.7%.



According to the data released by Commerce Department, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.



The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.



Profit booking from the record high levels pulled down crude oil prices yesterday. The price of benchmark contract of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange had soared over $10 to a new all-time high of $139.12 a barrel on Friday, recording the biggest one-day gain in dollar terms, as geo-political tensions were ignited by Israel’s threats to strike on Iran over its nuclear programme.



Israel's Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz on Friday had commented that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites could not be ruled out if Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $134.91 ($138.54), after trading in the range $138.25 - $133.00.



US Crude supplies had dropped by 4.8 million barrels to 306.8 million for the week ended May 30, according to the release by US Energy Department on Wednesday, taking the total fall in supplies in three weeks to around 19 million barrels.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output underpin oil prices.



Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $912.00 – $893.70 and closed at $895.50 ($904.60).



Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)



More correction expected below $887. Supports are $881, $875, $864; resistances $900, $908, $917.


DGCX Gold August


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 901.80; bearish below $ 897.00

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD


for the day buy only abv 12550 S/L 12525 and T/p 12600-625/675 towards 12750 OR buy ard 12210-20 S/L 12200 and T/p 12275-315/upto 12375 (any time close above 12630/ 12875/13050/ 13330/13510 bullish while close below 12000/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)

SILVER


for the day buy only abv 24450 S/L 24375 and T/p 24500-600/720-800/close abv 24800 test 25200 atleast OR sell below 23900 S/L 23975 and T/p 23800-700 where good support seen again (any time close below 23100-22875/ 22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24750/ 25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


for the day sell only below 5760 S/L 5785 and T/p 5730/5675-65 where good support seen OR buy only abv 5900 S/L 5875 and T/p 5930/5955-60/close abv 5955 test 6030-50 atleast (now crude need to close above 5960 for bullish rally while close below 5400/ 5210/ 5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


for the day sell only below 336 S/L 337.3 and T/p 334-332/330.5/below down rally OR buy abv 345 & 346.25 S/L 344 and T/p 347.5/350.5/352.5/abv uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 82, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 86.5/91.5 & 94 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)

NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 875-80 UPTO 860 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 915, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 1010 & 1055 UPTREND AGAIN

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 79 - 76 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 81.9, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 89.5 & 100.5 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)


MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Energy
10 June 2008 10:50:38


Major Headlines:


Crude oil fell from a record in New York after Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the surge in prices was ``unjustified.’ The gain in prices is being driven by non-fundamental factors, the state-owned Saudi Press Agency reported after a meeting between Al-Naimi and his Pakistani counterpart yesterday

Retail gas prices rose further above a national average of $4 Monday, as distributors and retailers hiked prices in response to Friday's unprecedented rally in the oil futures market. Oil futures, meanwhile, retreated as investors sold to lock in profits from the run-up, though oil prices may be headed even higher.

Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, said it plans to cut the number of tankers idling in the Persian Gulf and clear a backlog of crude stored on them by the middle of the summer. The nation still has 14 tankers, capable of storing as much as 28 million barrels of oil, near the Kharg Island loading facility, according to AISLive data on Bloomberg

OPEC's total production rose 0.9 percent in May to 32.28 million barrels a day as Saudi Arabia and Iraq boosted supply, according to Bloomberg estimates. The production ceiling for its 12 members with quotas is 29.673 million barrels a day. War-torn Iraq is allowed to produce at will. Speculators and political tensions could push prices to $140 a barrel this month and $150 a barrel before the end of the summer, Shokri Ghanem, Libya's top oil official, said in an interview today from Tripoli.

Saudi Arabia said on Monday it will "soon" call for a meeting between oil producing and consuming nations to discuss what it called the unjustified rise in oil prices. Oil jumped over $10 on Friday, partly on dollar weakness and rising tension between Israel and Iran. the world's fourth-largest exporter, adding that it asked Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi to call the meeting to discuss addressing the rise.


The negative oil-dollar correlation of -0.41 wasn't the only record set last week. Oil rose $10.75, or 8.4 percent, to $138.54 a barrel in New York on June 6, the biggest-ever gain in dollar terms. The gain alone almost equaled the lowest price for a barrel of crude the past decade, set Dec. 10, 1998


MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5913levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 5962 and 6055 If market sustains below 5770 can see a further fall towards 5720 and 5645

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5770 Target 5845 and 5920 Stoploss 5720

MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 547 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 553 and 557 If market sustains below 542 can see a further fall towards 537 and 532

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 534 Target 541 and 548 Stop loss at 529

MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion
10 June 2008 10:43:07


Major Headlines:

Gold and silver declined after crude oil rebound from the record high and stronger than excepted US housing data given some support to dollar, Euro slips against dollar.

Platinum futures fell on speculation that mines in South Africa, the world's biggest producer of the metal, may have enough electricity throughout the winter to provide stable supplies of the metal. Palladium climbed.

Gold rose yesterday in earlier session as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, enhancing the appeal of the precious metal as an investment haven. Silver dropped. Israel may attack Iran if the country doesn't abandon its nuclear-development program, Shaul Mofaz, Israel's transportation minister and a contender for the post of prime minister, told the Yediot Ahronot daily last week. Some investors buy gold during times of political unrest to hedge against turmoil in financial markets

OAO Polyus Gold, Russia's biggest producer of the metal, said full-year profit fell 96 percent after a gain in the prior year from the sale of 20 percent in Gold Fields Ltd., the second-largest African gold producer.Net income dropped to $41.1 million from $1.16 billion, Profit surged more than 10-fold in 2006 after the company gained $980 million from the sale of its Gold Fields stake.

Indian spot gold closed higher on Monday, tracking international bullion markets, but gains were limited due to lack of physical buying in the domestic market. The domestic market is very dull with hardly any demand for the yellow metal, as higher prices have kept buyers off the market; June to July is usually a slack period for the market with no wedding or festival seasons.

Meanwhile India's gold imports slumped over 59 percent year-on-year in May, as high prices dented demand for the yellow metal in the world's largest consuming nation. The country imported around 28 tones to 32 tones of the yellow metal compared with 69 tones a year earlier
Abu Dhabi's gold jewellery sales rose 10 per cent in volume and 20 per cent in value in April compared with the year-ago period, fuelled by demand from foreign residents despite high prices. Sales of gold jewellery in the capital were steady in volume in the first quarter of 2008 compared with the same period a year earlier, but their value rose by 30 per cent on record high prices

U.S.Economy:

The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales were up 6.3% in April, stronger than expected and the highest level since October of 2007.

Lehman Brothers said that they lost an estimated $2.8 billion in the quarter that ended on May 31st, much more than expected. They also said that they are raising $6 billion in an offering of common and preferred stock to help shore up the company.

Currencies update:


The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation said that new housing starts were at an annual rate of 221,300 units in May, up 3.5% on the month and better than expected. For the first five months of 2008, Canada's housing starts are up .7% from a year ago.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that producer prices were up 1.6% in May and up 8.9% from a year ago, much more than expected.

Japan's Cabinet Office said that its new index of leading indicators was up 2.0 to 92.8 in April. The September yen is trading lower


MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:


The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 12547 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12593 and 12629 If market sustains below 12360 can see a further fall towards 12305 and 12239

Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12495 Target 12380 and 12290 Stoploss at 12548



MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 24512 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 25812 and 25093 If market sustains below 23905. Can see a further fall towards 23731 and 23577

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24380 Target 24120 and 23900 stoploss at 2520


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The US dollar made a complete U turn after the Fed chairman once again expressed his concerns of a weaker US dollar causing inflation. US Treasury Secretary Paulson confirmed that the US government is not ruling out any policy tool including intervention. The last time the Federal Reserve intervened in the currency markets was shortly after the launch of the Euro. At that time, the currency fell to a low of 84 cents, triggering panic for the European Central Bank (ECB). In the first ten days of June the Fed and European central banks, the two major central banks shifting their focus to inflation, has resulted in a fight between US dollar bulls and US dollar bears. The Fed has surprised the markets more than the ECB. This has resulted in US dollar short positions getting covered and fresh long positions being created.

Metals will be volatile. Intervention is a strong word used sparingly by central banks. Unlike the ECB and bank of Japan where it has been all words and no action in the past. The Federal Reserve should mean business. Till the Fed meeting on 24-25th June, comments from various central banks will not let traders sleep.

SILVER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1713.0

If silver fails to break $1860 in June then it will fall to $1606 and $1550 in the short term. Comex silver July futures are expiring this month.

MCXARUN
9994500540