GOLD
now as long support 10900-825/10765-700 most likely to test 11200. for the day buy only abv 11025 S/L 11000 and T/p 11050-60/11100 OR buy ard 10835-40 S/L 10825 and T/p 10890-900/10950 (any time close above 11025 bullish while close below 10560/ 10320/10175/10080-25/9950/9750/ 9420/9025 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
now as long support 19950/19700 & 19600 uprally continue. for the day buy only abv 20150 S/L 20060 and T/p 19225-300 upto 19400 days to come (any time close below 19375/19000/ 18625/18250/18100/17750/17050/ 16450 bearish rally while close above 20150/20425/21325/23150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
as long support 3870/3835 & 3770 uprally continue. for the day buy only abv 3940 3915 and T/p 3975-4000 OR buy ard 3830-35 S/L 3820 and T/p 3865-80/3900 (now crude need to close above 3935 for bullish while close below 3725/ 3640/3515/3400/3290-60 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 279.5 & more abv 281 S/L 278 and T/p 284-85/288 upto 290 OR buy ard 272.8-273.2 S/L 272 and T/p 275.5-278 (upside strong rally only on close above 281/293/299/314/ 321.5/327/331.5/348 while close below 265/250/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, January 4, 2008
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 880-900 UPTO 925 WITH ANY CLOSE ABOVE $860 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $829
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11100-200/11300 UPTO 11500 MAX UPTO 11700 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 10775 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW 10575(FEB)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 4000-4040/4100 MAX UPTO 4200 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 3935 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW 3810(JAN)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 103-104 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 100.5(JAN)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1150-75 UPTO 1205 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 1110(JAN)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 880-900 UPTO 925 WITH ANY CLOSE ABOVE $860 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW $829
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11100-200/11300 UPTO 11500 MAX UPTO 11700 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 10775 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW 10575(FEB)
CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 4000-4040/4100 MAX UPTO 4200 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 3935 AND UNLESS CLOSE BELOW 3810(JAN)
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 103-104 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 100.5(JAN)
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1150-75 UPTO 1205 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 1110(JAN)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals
Copper gained for a second consecutive day in MCX, trailing a rally in gold and oil, on speculation that accelerating inflation will keep the metal price above historical averages. Lead Zinc and nickel also rose.
The bullion climbed to a record and oil traded within 2 cents of a record, triggering concern about inflation. Higher energy prices buoy production costs of industrial metals including copper and aluminium.
Prices of metals will be supported by growth in emerging economies like China, the world's largest user of all metals.
The Commerce Department reported new factory orders rose 1.5 pct in November, which is the largest monthly increase since July. Factory orders excluding transportation equipment were up 1.4 pct, the largest gain since September and also above expectations for the month.
Manufacturing activity across the US contracted in December after 10 straight months of expansion, according to a key survey out yesterday. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of US manufacturing activity fell to 47.7 in December, down from the 50.8 reading in November. A reading below 50 signals contraction, while any reading above 50 signals expansion.
The new orders component of the index fell into contraction territory, dropping to 45.7 from 52.6 in November. The production component of the index followed a similar path, falling to 47.3 from 51.9.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 274-75 for the target of 279 and 282 with stop loss at 270.50
MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Jan: Buy at 99.50-100 for the target of 103.20 and 105 with stop loss at 97.60
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Jan: Buy at 1125-20 for the target of 1170 and 1190 with stop loss at 1105
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 105-104.80 for the target of 106.80 and 108.50 with stop loss at 102.80
The bullion climbed to a record and oil traded within 2 cents of a record, triggering concern about inflation. Higher energy prices buoy production costs of industrial metals including copper and aluminium.
Prices of metals will be supported by growth in emerging economies like China, the world's largest user of all metals.
The Commerce Department reported new factory orders rose 1.5 pct in November, which is the largest monthly increase since July. Factory orders excluding transportation equipment were up 1.4 pct, the largest gain since September and also above expectations for the month.
Manufacturing activity across the US contracted in December after 10 straight months of expansion, according to a key survey out yesterday. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of US manufacturing activity fell to 47.7 in December, down from the 50.8 reading in November. A reading below 50 signals contraction, while any reading above 50 signals expansion.
The new orders component of the index fell into contraction territory, dropping to 45.7 from 52.6 in November. The production component of the index followed a similar path, falling to 47.3 from 51.9.
MCX Copper Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 274-75 for the target of 279 and 282 with stop loss at 270.50
MCX Zinc Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Jan: Buy at 99.50-100 for the target of 103.20 and 105 with stop loss at 97.60
MCX Nickel Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Jan: Buy at 1125-20 for the target of 1170 and 1190 with stop loss at 1105
MCX Lead Dec (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Jan: Buy at 105-104.80 for the target of 106.80 and 108.50 with stop loss at 102.80
Energy
Crude oil traded near the record of $100 a barrel in NYMEX and Rs. 3931 in MCX on concern that violence in Nigeria may disrupt supply as global demand for commodities climbs.
Nigerian militants killed 12 people in the oil city of Port Harcourt on Jan. 1. Violence has curbed daily output in Africa's biggest oil producer by almost a quarter.
Gold surged to a record yesterday as the dollar's slump against major currencies enhanced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.
Rising energy prices were cited as a contributing factor in disappointing sales for the just-ended holiday season, along with the continuing slump in housing and an overall uneasiness about the economy. But economists say that generally, the jump in oil is less devastating than previous spikes because incomes have risen faster than energy costs.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were down 4.0 million barrels last week to 289.6 million barrels. 900,000 barrels of crude oil were also added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Supplies of gasoline were up 1.9 million barrels while heating oil supplies were down 1.4 million barrels.
The DOE also said that refinery use picked up from 88.1% to 89.4% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .1% from a year ago while distillate demand was up 5.7% from a year ago.
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be released on Friday for natural gas due to the holiday schedule.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3900 for target of 3960 and 3990 with stop loss below 3855
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 305-307 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 297
Nigerian militants killed 12 people in the oil city of Port Harcourt on Jan. 1. Violence has curbed daily output in Africa's biggest oil producer by almost a quarter.
Gold surged to a record yesterday as the dollar's slump against major currencies enhanced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.
Rising energy prices were cited as a contributing factor in disappointing sales for the just-ended holiday season, along with the continuing slump in housing and an overall uneasiness about the economy. But economists say that generally, the jump in oil is less devastating than previous spikes because incomes have risen faster than energy costs.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were down 4.0 million barrels last week to 289.6 million barrels. 900,000 barrels of crude oil were also added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Supplies of gasoline were up 1.9 million barrels while heating oil supplies were down 1.4 million barrels.
The DOE also said that refinery use picked up from 88.1% to 89.4% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .1% from a year ago while distillate demand was up 5.7% from a year ago.
The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory report will be released on Friday for natural gas due to the holiday schedule.
MCX Crude Oil Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil Jan: Buy at 3900 for target of 3960 and 3990 with stop loss below 3855
MCX Natural gas Jan (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas Jan: Buy at 305-307 for the target of 315 and 325 with stop loss at 297
bullion
Spot Gold prices rallied Thursday to settle above $860 an ounce after a weak U.S. dollar coupled with a record-setting push crude oil to $100 oil spurred demand for the precious metal. Other commodities also climbed, further boosted by an influx of money into the market at the start of the New Year.
Gold for February delivery on MCX raised Rs, 11003 per 10G and Silver March touched the high level of Rs.20144 per kg New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices hit a trading high of $871.20, surpassing gold's recent high of $850, but still falling short of the all-time high of $875 an ounce set in 1980.
The surge in oil prices helped boost the price of gold as investors shifted resources to the precious metal, often seen as a safe haven against inflation and political uncertainty.
The U.S. currency fell against the euro Wednesday after a key measure of the U.S. economy's manufacturing strength showed the sector contracted last month after 10 straight months of growth.
The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, said its manufacturing index registered 47.7 last month, down nearly 3 percentage points from 50.8 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth; below that indicates contraction. The euro rose to $1.4728 against the dollar in late New York trading. Coupled with a weak dollar, new-year index buying further boosted oil and agricultural futures.
The Commerce Department reported new factory orders rose 1.5 pct in November, which is the largest monthly increase since July. Factory orders excluding transportation equipment were up 1.4 pct, the largest gain since September and also above expectations for the month.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10950-70 for the target of 1160 and 11140 with stop loss at 10915
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 20000-20010 for the target of 20250 and 20400 with stop loss at 19860
Gold for February delivery on MCX raised Rs, 11003 per 10G and Silver March touched the high level of Rs.20144 per kg New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices hit a trading high of $871.20, surpassing gold's recent high of $850, but still falling short of the all-time high of $875 an ounce set in 1980.
The surge in oil prices helped boost the price of gold as investors shifted resources to the precious metal, often seen as a safe haven against inflation and political uncertainty.
The U.S. currency fell against the euro Wednesday after a key measure of the U.S. economy's manufacturing strength showed the sector contracted last month after 10 straight months of growth.
The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, said its manufacturing index registered 47.7 last month, down nearly 3 percentage points from 50.8 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth; below that indicates contraction. The euro rose to $1.4728 against the dollar in late New York trading. Coupled with a weak dollar, new-year index buying further boosted oil and agricultural futures.
The Commerce Department reported new factory orders rose 1.5 pct in November, which is the largest monthly increase since July. Factory orders excluding transportation equipment were up 1.4 pct, the largest gain since September and also above expectations for the month.
MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Buy at 10950-70 for the target of 1160 and 11140 with stop loss at 10915
MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Buy at 20000-20010 for the target of 20250 and 20400 with stop loss at 19860
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The first week of 2008 could be the best week for gold this year. More and more investors will be investing in gold on dips after this week. The trend of investing away from US denominated assets will continue in 2008. Gold will be delinked from the US dollar and will be a separate asset class in 2008. So far gold has risen more due to US dollar depreciation. Once gold resurrects itself as its own asset class, it can easily gain another fifty percent in the next two years. Demand from India and China will not fall even if prices rise. Indians have it in their genes to stash gold. Now the west seems to be aping the Indians. More gains in store for gold. But one should be ready for a period of high volatility with successive lower base getting higher.
Today's December payroll numbers will set the trend for the US dollar in January. Gold can be volatile as result of the same. Silver is in a bullish zone and a new multi year high should be created.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $322.0
Copper needs to break $321 for $337 and $350. On the lower side a consolidated fall below $312 will result in $303.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $102.0
Crude oil targets $109.10 and $114.70 on a break of $102. On the lower side as long as $97.60 holds downside will be limited.
Today's December payroll numbers will set the trend for the US dollar in January. Gold can be volatile as result of the same. Silver is in a bullish zone and a new multi year high should be created.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $322.0
Copper needs to break $321 for $337 and $350. On the lower side a consolidated fall below $312 will result in $303.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $102.0
Crude oil targets $109.10 and $114.70 on a break of $102. On the lower side as long as $97.60 holds downside will be limited.
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