long view trading calls

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 175 ATLEAST / TOWARDS 165 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 178, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 199 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(NOV)


CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO $ 52 / 50 TOWARDS $ 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 54, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 65.50 & $ 72 CONFIRMS THIS DOWN TREND COMPLETED TEMPORARILY


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 48 UPTO 45 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 56 & 52.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 64 MAKE SOME UPTREND AGAIN (NOV)


NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 295-285 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 308, WHILE ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 365 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN (DEC)


MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "buy only abv 11925 S/L 11890 and T/p 11980-12000/towards 12100" ACHIEVED WITHIN 1-HOURS. Now, as long Resistance of 12150 & 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11850 S/L 11885 and T/p 11810-800/11720-730/sustain below towards 11630 OR sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070 (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/ 13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "as Long Resist 16575 & 16825 down trend continue" AND SEE PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL FROM HIGH=16826. Continue to view as long Resist of 16830 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 16200 S/L 16280 and T/p 16100-16000/ close below 16000 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16660-670 S/L 16700 and T/p 16575-500 (any time close below 16000-15975 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/ 20550/21400/22150/25250/26350/ 27475/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


Continue to view, as long Resistance 2970 & 3040, down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 2750 & more below 2730 S/L 2765 and T/p 2700-2680 OR sell ard 2860-65 S/L 2870 and T/p 2840-2815 (now crude need to close above 2970/3040/3200/ 3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2735 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

Continue to view, as long Resistance of 187/191 & 199, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50, for the day sell only below 178 S/L 180 and T/p 176-75/sustain close below 178 towards 165-170 in coming days OR sell ard 186.3-186.6 S/L 187 and T/p 184-84 (upside strong rally only on close above 199/215/234.5/248/270/ 305/316/327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 178 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

market outlook

Recession now a reality in major economies from Japan to Germany, policymakers is starting to fret about the chance of a phenomenon many see as even more deadly: deflation. Deflation is probably the worst case for the financial sector because it is very difficult to overcome. The prospect of constantly falling prices is particularly unwelcome at present given the blow it deals to efforts by banks, firms and households to cut debt and help weather the economic storm now following the financial market crisis. Central banks, faced with a sudden collapse in growth as well as inflation, have already slashed interest rates and are expected to keep doing so,although economists warn they may run out of rope before prices hit rock-bottom.

Gold rose above $760, as a weaker dollar and a bullish industry report showing strong demand triggered a technical chart breakout. Prices were supported by a lower dollar against the Euro following a government report showing record drop in U.S. consumer prices in October. World Gold Council report confirmed strong demand for physical gold bullion, triggering a technical breakout. Global demand for gold jumped 18 percent year-overyear to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, reversing a weaker trend earlier this year, because of strong buying by investors and a lower gold price.

Copper tumbled more than 2 percent before steadying at slightly lower levels as a weaker dollar helped offset lingering concerns about demand and a slowing global growth outlook. Dim demand prospects and fears the world is in for an extended recession have contributed to the downtrend in the base metals. U.S. consumer prices plummeted and construction starts fell to record lows, reflective of the weakened state of metal demand. Further fears of demand deterioration from the U.S. automotive industry as the economic crisis threatens the survival of Detroit's Big Three General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC. Global copper market in a small surplus of 26,800 tonnes in January to September period - the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported.

Crude oil fell below $54 to its lowest since January 2007 after an unexpectedly large build in U.S. crude inventories underlined falling demand. Crude oil inventories rose 1.6 million barrels, weekly U.S. government data showed, twice analysts' expectations. With no end in sight for the global economic turmoil, traders continue to focus on the lack of demand heading into 2009. Inventories of distillates fell 1.5 million barrels last week, against analysts' expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise. The distillates number is the fly in the ointment keeping prices from falling too much on an unexpected build in crude. Oil market was also closely watching any moves from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at their meeting next week. OPEC is very concerned about the worsening world economic slowdown, the group's president Chakib Khelil said.'


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s the US dollar story for gold and silver and nothing else. Euro/Usd rose to 1.2813 while comex gold December rose to $764.80 and thereafter the euro fell and gold, silver and crude oil also fell. Still gold and silver have performed exceedingly well. Gold, silver and other commodities have been falling only after (A) US dollar gains or (B) Stock markets fall. When conditions A &B occur simultaneously then they fall else they are volatile. This will continue today also.

Minutes of Fed meeting

Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed. ``Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings,'' the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released. In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery. Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of ``price stability.''

Our View: Interest rate cuts by the Fed will reach a bottom in December 2008 or January 2008. Thereafter it remains to be seen what other hard measures Federal reserves takes to spruce the US economy. In the short term the US dollar may gain as other regions across the globe cut interest rates and interest rate differentials narrow. Once the interest rates cuts are over by most of the countries the US dollar will weaken at a modest pace. This may happen for the remaining part of 2008 but will surely happen after the first quarter of 2009.

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER

Copper needs to hold $157 to prevent another round of selling to $149 and $135. On the higher side $172 is the resistance. Overall downward pressure is there on copper.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)

Crude oil needs to hold $49.80 to prevent a fall to $46.00. On the higher side $53.80 and $56.20 are the resistances.


MCXARUN
9994500540