GOLD
book profit on sell below 11775-750/ 11700/11525, for the day sell only below 11550-525 S/L 11570 and T/p 11500-450/11400-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 22400 S/L 22470 and T/p 22300-250/150/22075/down rally OR sell ard 22975-23000 S/L 23025 and T/p 22875-800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22080/21600-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23600/24500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4790 S/L 4775 and T/p 4820-30/4850 OR sell only below 4690 S/L 4710 and T/p 4655-65/ 35 upto 4600, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4790 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 349 S/L 347.75 and T/p 350.5-351/353.5/353.5/355/ close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 338.5-339 S/L 338 and T/p 340.5-342/ 344 (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/ 327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
long view safe trade
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 877.5-873 TEST 865-50 UPTO 840 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 16 / $ 15.70 UPTO $ 15.40 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 16.30 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 108.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPRALLY TEST 126-128 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 877.5-873 TEST 865-50 UPTO 840 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 16 / $ 15.70 UPTO $ 15.40 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 16.30 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 108.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPRALLY TEST 126-128 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook
29 April 2008 10:22:52
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, as rise in oil price to new record high near $120 levels stirred up inflation concerns. Easing of the dollar against the euro also supported the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $885.75 - $895.50 and last quoted at $892.50 ($885.15)
Dollar traded range-bound, with markets awaiting the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The greenback had recovered moderately from the record low levels against the Euro earlier this week, but remained vulnerable due to persisting worries about the US economy.
The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
But according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply by 33,000 to 342,000 for the week ended April 19, against the expectations for a modest rise. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 7,250 to stand at 369,500.
Also, continuing claims fell 65,000 to 2.93 million for the week ended April 12. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million to the highest level since May 2004.
However, weakness in the housing market continued, as sales of new homes fell 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 in March as per the report by US Commerce Department.
The National Association of Realtors had reported a 2 % drop in sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in March, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million.
Also, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 2.4 % for the 12 months ending in February.
Earlier, the unexpectedly weak result from the Bank of America had dampened the investors in the banking sector and also added to concerns about the US economy. Bank of America, the second largest bank in US reported a fall in first-quarter profit due to write-downs and rising credit losses.
US consumer confidence had sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank had left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in their respective latest meetings.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March had given a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Oil prices soared to a new high near $120 a barrel on reported supply disruptions due to strike in a UK refinery, unrest in Nigeria and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $119.93 and settled at $118.83 ($118.52).
The US Energy Department had reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels in the week ending April 18.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $889.40 – $898.00 and closed at $894.10 ($888.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 890
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 April 2008 10:22:52
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, as rise in oil price to new record high near $120 levels stirred up inflation concerns. Easing of the dollar against the euro also supported the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $885.75 - $895.50 and last quoted at $892.50 ($885.15)
Dollar traded range-bound, with markets awaiting the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The greenback had recovered moderately from the record low levels against the Euro earlier this week, but remained vulnerable due to persisting worries about the US economy.
The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
But according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply by 33,000 to 342,000 for the week ended April 19, against the expectations for a modest rise. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 7,250 to stand at 369,500.
Also, continuing claims fell 65,000 to 2.93 million for the week ended April 12. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million to the highest level since May 2004.
However, weakness in the housing market continued, as sales of new homes fell 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 in March as per the report by US Commerce Department.
The National Association of Realtors had reported a 2 % drop in sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in March, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million.
Also, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 2.4 % for the 12 months ending in February.
Earlier, the unexpectedly weak result from the Bank of America had dampened the investors in the banking sector and also added to concerns about the US economy. Bank of America, the second largest bank in US reported a fall in first-quarter profit due to write-downs and rising credit losses.
US consumer confidence had sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank had left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in their respective latest meetings.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March had given a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Oil prices soared to a new high near $120 a barrel on reported supply disruptions due to strike in a UK refinery, unrest in Nigeria and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $119.93 and settled at $118.83 ($118.52).
The US Energy Department had reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels in the week ending April 18.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $889.40 – $898.00 and closed at $894.10 ($888.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 890
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4722BEARISH BELOW 4700
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11627 BEARISH BELOW 11588
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22488 BEARISH BELOW 22400
COPPER (JUNE) BULLISH ABOVE 346.40BEARISH BELOW 345.20
LEAD (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 111.50 BEARISH BELOW 110.80
NICKEL (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 1182 BEARISH BELOW 1175
ZINC (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11627 BEARISH BELOW 11588
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22488 BEARISH BELOW 22400
COPPER (JUNE) BULLISH ABOVE 346.40BEARISH BELOW 345.20
LEAD (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 111.50 BEARISH BELOW 110.80
NICKEL (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 1182 BEARISH BELOW 1175
ZINC (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
ENERGY INTRADAY
Energy Apr 29, 2008
Major Headlines:
* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.
* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.
* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.
* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro
* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs
* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week
* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across
Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.
* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.
* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.
* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro
* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs
* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week
* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across
Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442
MCXARUN
9994500540
BASEMETALS INTRADAY
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 347.9 levels. If market breaches 347.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.3 and 351.6, however if it holds back below 344.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 341.9 and 340.5
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344.50-344 Target 349 and 354 Stop loss at 341.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel remains mixed, as initially market shown some gains but settled near previous closing, movement was silent as no much movement is seen at LME.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –168 MT to 51774 MT
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, OAO Metalloinvest, and Russian Technologies Corp. have agreed in principle to bid for Udokan, Russia's largest untapped copper field, Kommersant reported.
The group wants to develop the deposit on equal terms, the Moscow-based newspaper reported, citing a letter to President Vladimir Putin from Sergei Chemezov, chief executive officer of state-owned Russian Technologies.
The Philippines shipped 72 percent less nickel ore to China in March than a year earlier as prices of refined nickel dropped, reducing the appeal of the cheaper alternative raw material for making stainless steel.
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1185.7 levels. If market breaches 1185.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 1192.8 and 1198.7, however if it holds back below 1172.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1166.8 and 1159.7
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1174-1172 Target 1185 and 1196 Stop loss at 1167
Zinc
MCX Zinc May traded mixed in tight range of 91.80–93.35 although market remain slightly negative at LME.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –225 MT to 128550 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 93.2 levels. If market breaches 93.2 may see prices to take further upside towards 94.1 and 94.8, however if it holds back below 91.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 91.0 and 90.1
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Buy at 92 Target 93 and 94 Stop loss at 91.00
Lead
MCX Lead traded slightly up following major changes at LME.
Lme lead inventory rises 1.8% to highest since October 2006; Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1000 MT to 55850 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 112.2 levels. If market breaches 110.1 may see prices to take further upside towards 113.0 and 114.0, however if it holds back below 110.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 109.3 and 108.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Buy at 110.80-110.60 Target 112.20 and 113.60 Stop loss at 110.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May treaded mixed and in tight range of 119 – 120, following movement at LME.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –950 MT to 1042825 MT
Japan's aluminium product shipments dropped 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the seventh straight month of decline, the Japan Aluminium Association said.
Shipments fell to 193,573 metric tons, led by a decrease in demand from builders and beverage can makers, the association said in a statement today.
World aluminium inventory expanded to 2.85 million metric tons in March from the preceding month, according to the International Aluminium Institute.
Stockpiles of the metal, including unprocessed scrap and mill products, totalled 2.83 million tons in February, the London-based IAI said on its Web site today. The IAI is funded by aluminium producers and represents 70 percent of global output.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 119.9 levels. If market breaches 119.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 120.4 and 120.9, however if it holds back below 118.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 118.4 and 117.9
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 119 Target 120 and 121 Stoploss 118.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 347.9 levels. If market breaches 347.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.3 and 351.6, however if it holds back below 344.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 341.9 and 340.5
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344.50-344 Target 349 and 354 Stop loss at 341.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel remains mixed, as initially market shown some gains but settled near previous closing, movement was silent as no much movement is seen at LME.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –168 MT to 51774 MT
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, OAO Metalloinvest, and Russian Technologies Corp. have agreed in principle to bid for Udokan, Russia's largest untapped copper field, Kommersant reported.
The group wants to develop the deposit on equal terms, the Moscow-based newspaper reported, citing a letter to President Vladimir Putin from Sergei Chemezov, chief executive officer of state-owned Russian Technologies.
The Philippines shipped 72 percent less nickel ore to China in March than a year earlier as prices of refined nickel dropped, reducing the appeal of the cheaper alternative raw material for making stainless steel.
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1185.7 levels. If market breaches 1185.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 1192.8 and 1198.7, however if it holds back below 1172.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1166.8 and 1159.7
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1174-1172 Target 1185 and 1196 Stop loss at 1167
Zinc
MCX Zinc May traded mixed in tight range of 91.80–93.35 although market remain slightly negative at LME.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –225 MT to 128550 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 93.2 levels. If market breaches 93.2 may see prices to take further upside towards 94.1 and 94.8, however if it holds back below 91.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 91.0 and 90.1
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Buy at 92 Target 93 and 94 Stop loss at 91.00
Lead
MCX Lead traded slightly up following major changes at LME.
Lme lead inventory rises 1.8% to highest since October 2006; Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1000 MT to 55850 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 112.2 levels. If market breaches 110.1 may see prices to take further upside towards 113.0 and 114.0, however if it holds back below 110.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 109.3 and 108.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Buy at 110.80-110.60 Target 112.20 and 113.60 Stop loss at 110.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May treaded mixed and in tight range of 119 – 120, following movement at LME.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –950 MT to 1042825 MT
Japan's aluminium product shipments dropped 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the seventh straight month of decline, the Japan Aluminium Association said.
Shipments fell to 193,573 metric tons, led by a decrease in demand from builders and beverage can makers, the association said in a statement today.
World aluminium inventory expanded to 2.85 million metric tons in March from the preceding month, according to the International Aluminium Institute.
Stockpiles of the metal, including unprocessed scrap and mill products, totalled 2.83 million tons in February, the London-based IAI said on its Web site today. The IAI is funded by aluminium producers and represents 70 percent of global output.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 119.9 levels. If market breaches 119.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 120.4 and 120.9, however if it holds back below 118.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 118.4 and 117.9
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 119 Target 120 and 121 Stoploss 118.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion Apr 29, 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Fed will slow the pace of U.S. interest-rate cuts, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. Gold's next move depends on this week's Federal Reserve meeting today and tomorrow, if they signal any pause in the U.S.interest rate cutting cycle that would put pressure on commodities as the dollar might strengthen
Gold climbed the most in eight days in London as crude oil rose to a record, boosting demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation n
The Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet on April 29-30 to discuss the economy and interest rates. Gold has gained 7.3 percent so far this year as central bankers have cut the overnight lending rate between banks by 2 percentage points to 2.25 percent.
India spot gold edged higher at close Monday on overseas leads amid moderate demand witnessed in the domestic market, trade participants said. In London, gold edged up on heightened inflation fears created by surging oil prices, but gains were capped by a recovery in the U.S. dollar, as investors await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting
Gold advanced in New York as oil rose to a record, strengthening the appeal of the precious metal as hedge against inflation
Still, gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of U.S.interest-rate cuts, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative to the dollar
Investment in the Street racks Gold Trust dropped to 591.19 metric tons on April 24, marking the first time the fund has fallen below 600 tons since November. The trust reached a record 663.8 tons on March 17
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and may reduce the federal funds rate once again.
Non-farm payrolls, due from the Labor Department on May 2,fell by 78,000 in April and the jobless rate rose to 5.2 percent this month, according to separate Bloomberg surveys.
Currency Update:
The yen fell against the euro, Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone as rising commodity prices spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
Bank of America recommended investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days. The second-largest U.S. bank has pushed back its forecast for the timing of an ECB interest-rate cut from September to October. The ECB's benchmark rate is 4 percent
The euro was supported after an industry report showed German consumer confidence unexpectedly increased to a seven-month high for May as rising incomes encouraged spending. ECB policy makers also suggested interest rates need to stay high to fight inflation.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11561 If market breaches below 11561 may see prices to take further correction towards 11506 and 11462 However if it holds back above 11660 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11704 and 11759
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11680 Target11610 and 11560 Stoploss at11730
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22249 If market breaches below 22249 may see prices to take further correction towards 22033 and 21846 However if it holds back above 22652 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22839 and 23055
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22690 Target 22350 and 22150 Stop loss at 22860
MCXARUN
999450540
Major Headlines:
Gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Fed will slow the pace of U.S. interest-rate cuts, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. Gold's next move depends on this week's Federal Reserve meeting today and tomorrow, if they signal any pause in the U.S.interest rate cutting cycle that would put pressure on commodities as the dollar might strengthen
Gold climbed the most in eight days in London as crude oil rose to a record, boosting demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation n
The Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet on April 29-30 to discuss the economy and interest rates. Gold has gained 7.3 percent so far this year as central bankers have cut the overnight lending rate between banks by 2 percentage points to 2.25 percent.
India spot gold edged higher at close Monday on overseas leads amid moderate demand witnessed in the domestic market, trade participants said. In London, gold edged up on heightened inflation fears created by surging oil prices, but gains were capped by a recovery in the U.S. dollar, as investors await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting
Gold advanced in New York as oil rose to a record, strengthening the appeal of the precious metal as hedge against inflation
Still, gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of U.S.interest-rate cuts, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative to the dollar
Investment in the Street racks Gold Trust dropped to 591.19 metric tons on April 24, marking the first time the fund has fallen below 600 tons since November. The trust reached a record 663.8 tons on March 17
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and may reduce the federal funds rate once again.
Non-farm payrolls, due from the Labor Department on May 2,fell by 78,000 in April and the jobless rate rose to 5.2 percent this month, according to separate Bloomberg surveys.
Currency Update:
The yen fell against the euro, Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone as rising commodity prices spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
Bank of America recommended investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days. The second-largest U.S. bank has pushed back its forecast for the timing of an ECB interest-rate cut from September to October. The ECB's benchmark rate is 4 percent
The euro was supported after an industry report showed German consumer confidence unexpectedly increased to a seven-month high for May as rising incomes encouraged spending. ECB policy makers also suggested interest rates need to stay high to fight inflation.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11561 If market breaches below 11561 may see prices to take further correction towards 11506 and 11462 However if it holds back above 11660 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11704 and 11759
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11680 Target11610 and 11560 Stoploss at11730
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22249 If market breaches below 22249 may see prices to take further correction towards 22033 and 21846 However if it holds back above 22652 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22839 and 23055
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22690 Target 22350 and 22150 Stop loss at 22860
MCXARUN
999450540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is in the “final stages” of launching the kingdom’s first sovereign wealth fund (SWF). The SWF would be set up with initial capital of SR20bn ($5.3bn). The amount of investment by Gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries will only rise and is an indirect way of moving away from the US dollar based investments. How much of the money in SWFs will move into gold remains to be seen. GCC counties official foreign exchange reserves will continue to swell as long term bullishness for crude oil prices is on the rise. The size of the GCC SWF will only rise over the coming years and will help to sustain the long term US dollar weakness story.
There is speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates this time and then shift the focus to inflation from growth. The net addition to US non farm payrolls is still negative and may remain in the negative territory for some time. The Fed may pause in June and then cut interest rates from September. Technically the US dollar has formed a short term bottom against the major currencies and should rise. The Fed meeting will be the key, till then day traders and jobbers will prefer to sit on the fence.
It will be a volatile day for gold, silver and copper. If they fail to rise then there will be sellers and key medium term technical support may be broken. On the other hand if they hold the last week low, then they may have bottomed out for the rest of the week.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Failure of gold to break and close over $931 on Friday will result in fall to $871 and $848.60 in May.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
Failure of crude oil to break $121.60 this week will result in a fall to $116.20 and $113.80 this week.
MCXARUN
9994500540
There is speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates this time and then shift the focus to inflation from growth. The net addition to US non farm payrolls is still negative and may remain in the negative territory for some time. The Fed may pause in June and then cut interest rates from September. Technically the US dollar has formed a short term bottom against the major currencies and should rise. The Fed meeting will be the key, till then day traders and jobbers will prefer to sit on the fence.
It will be a volatile day for gold, silver and copper. If they fail to rise then there will be sellers and key medium term technical support may be broken. On the other hand if they hold the last week low, then they may have bottomed out for the rest of the week.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Failure of gold to break and close over $931 on Friday will result in fall to $871 and $848.60 in May.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
Failure of crude oil to break $121.60 this week will result in a fall to $116.20 and $113.80 this week.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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