GOLD
now as long support 11875-825, expect some upside test 12175-275-400 in coming days.. buy at every deep. for the day buy only abv 12150-165 S/L 12120 and T/p 12210-245-275 upto 12325 OR buy ard 12000-5 S/L 11990 and T/p 12050-100. only close below 11830 down rally again test 11675-700 atleast (any time close above 12375/13100/ 13400 bullish while close below 11830/ 11575-475/11300/10950-900/10500/ 10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
now as long support 22475 & 21975, expect upside test 22550-875/950 upto 23300 in coming days...buy at every deep. book profit on buy abv 22475-525, for the day buy abv 23100 S/L 23010 and T/p 23200-250/300/400 OR buy ard 22600-610 S/L 22575 and T/p 22725/ 22875. only sustain close below 21975 down rally again test 21500 atleast (any time close below 22475/21975/21250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23900/26100/ 27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on sell 4230-35/4130/4030-4000, for the day sell only below 3960-50 S/L 3980 and T/p 3910-3880 atleast OR sell ard 4095-100 S/L 4105 and T/p 4070-55/4035 (now crude need to close above 4160/4335/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/3830/3585/ 3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 323-24, fresh buy abv 327 S/L 325.25 and T/p 328.5-330/ 332.5/335.5/uprally OR sell below 323 S/L 324.5 and T/p 322/319.5/318 upto 314.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/335.5/348/354 while close below 313.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Gold Outlook
Gold prices bounced back yesterday to close higher, as the Dollar weakened sharply. Oil prices rose moderately, also supporting the advance of the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $911.50 - $938.80, and last quoted at $938.30 ($914.70).
According to a US Conference Board release yesterday, US consumer confidence index fell in March to 64.5 from a revised reading of 76.4 in February.
But the report from National Association of Realtors released on Monday had indicated signs of stability in the US housing market in February. According to the report, resale of homes rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. The rise was above expectations, and the first in seven months.
Gold had corrected from record high levels reached earlier last week, along with oil, as the Dollar bounced back moderately from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
Crude oil for May delivery in NYMEX settled at $101.22 ($100.86) a barrel, closing higher for the first time in four days.
The US Energy Department’s weekly oil inventory report is due for release today.
The Commerce Department had reported last week a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce last week.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move had cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $921.00 – $944.00 and closed at $941.90.
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 940; bearish below $ 935
MCXARUN
9994500540
Base metals intraday
§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
Major Economic Data:
§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
LME Inventory update (25 March, 2008)
LONDON METAL EXCHANGE STOCKS
METAL
LAST
NET
PREV
COPPER
120175
-1700
121875
ALUM.
1035350
1475
1033875
ZINC
122600
450
122150
NICKEL
47622
-180
47802
LEAD
46950
225
46725
TIN
9225
-225
9450
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 323.50 Target 328 and 332 Stop loss 318.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94 Target 93 and 90 Stop loss at 95.50
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1165 Target 1195 and 1215 Stop loss at 1151
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 110.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 111.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
Major Economic Data:
§ A widely watched index of U.S. home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, its steepest drop since data for the indicator was first collected in 1987.The decline reported Tuesday in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index means prices have been growing more slowly or dropping for 19 consecutive months. The index tracks the prices of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan areas in the U.S.
§ Consumer confidence sank to a five-year low in March as tight credit markets, rising prices and worsening job prospects made many worry that the economy has fallen into recession. The Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. That was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed.
Major Headline:
§ Copper gained for the second straight day in New York as bank stocks led a rebound in global equities, easing concern that financial-market turmoil would roil metals and other raw materials.
§ Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, said full-year profit fell 13 percent after processing fees dropped. Net income declined to 4.2 billion yuan ($596 million), or 1.4 yuan a share last year, the Guixi, Jiangxi province-based company said in a statement today. The profit compares with the 4.5 billion yuan median estimate of 22 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.
§ Chinese smelters agreed to a 37 percent cut in fees they charged to process metals last year because of competition among themselves and from India. Jiangxi Copper, which needs to buy almost 80 percent of its concentrates, and competitors agreed to a further cut in fees this year.
§ Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest producer of non-ferrous metals, plans to shut one of its three copper smelters for maintenance work that may last 40 days.The 180,000-metric ton smelter may be closed in the last week of April or early May, according to a company executive, who declined to be identified, citing internal policy.
§ Japan's output of copper and copper alloy fabricated products, including sheets and tubes, rose 0.4 percent in February from a year earlier, the first increase in 13 months, according to an industry group.
§ Output rose to 85,050 metric tons from 84,678 tons, the Japan Copper and Brass Association said in a faxed statement today, citing preliminary data.
§ Demand for copper alloy products in car and semiconductor manufacturing was recovering, while demand from air conditioner makers and home builders remained weak, according to the group. The association issued preliminary data for output in February and final figures for output, shipments and inventories in January.
§ National Aluminium Co., India's biggest alumina maker, said it plans to shut one of its three production lines for maintenance work that may last a month.The shutdown will reduce the monthly output by one- third, said. National Aluminium produces 1.58 million metric tons of the aluminum-making material annually.
§ Zinc gained the most in a month as some investors deemed recent decline as overdone amid signs of steady demand in China, the world's largest producer and consumer of the metal. Copper, nickel and aluminum also increased.
§ China last month remained a net importer of zinc, according to customs figures yesterday, purchasing 18,050 tons of the metal used to galvanize steel. Stockpiles in Shanghai warehouses fell for the first time in six weeks, according to a report Friday. Cash zinc in Changjiang, Shanghai's biggest spot market, rose as much as 3.7 percent today, following an 8.7 percent loss last week. The London Metal Exchange, closed since March 21 for the Easter holidays, re-opened today. LME zinc fell 13 percentlast week.
LME Inventory update (25 March, 2008)
LONDON METAL EXCHANGE STOCKS
METAL
LAST
NET
PREV
COPPER
120175
-1700
121875
ALUM.
1035350
1475
1033875
ZINC
122600
450
122150
NICKEL
47622
-180
47802
LEAD
46950
225
46725
TIN
9225
-225
9450
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 323.50 Target 328 and 332 Stop loss 318.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Zinc March: Sell at 94 Target 93 and 90 Stop loss at 95.50
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1165 Target 1195 and 1215 Stop loss at 1151
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 110.50 Target 100.30 and 99.10 Stop loss 111.70
MCXARUN
9994500540
Energy intraday
§ Oil prices recovered Tuesday as rising gasoline prices and a weaker U.S. dollar brought investors back to the market. Oil futures stumbled Tuesday, falling below $100 a barrel after disappointing reports on home prices and consumer confidence raised new worries about the economy.
§ Gas and diesel prices, meanwhile, retreated further from recent their record levels.
§ Consumer confidence fell much more than expected this month, according to the Conference Board. The decline increased the oil market's concerns that hesitant consumers would further weaken the economy and depress demand for fuel.
§ Meanwhile, home prices as measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index fell by 11.4 percent in January.
§ Many analysts believe the dollar's recent depreciation was the primary reason oil surged to a record near $112 a barrel last week, since oil and other commodities are seen as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar.
§ The recent decline in oil prices has been far from decisive, and there are signs that some investors are willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Some investors have sold contracts on concerns that a slowing U.S. economy would dampen crude oil demand. Last week, oil prices dipped in part on worry that Bear Stearns' near-collapse was a sign of significant economic problems.
§ Some analysts believe oil's recent declines are temporary -- a correction in a bull market -- and that prices will forge higher again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, as is widely expected. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar.
§ Heating oil futures were higher as demand was almost 10 percent above average levels for this time of the year, as U.S. weather forecasts were expecting lower temperatures than normal this week, said a report from JBC Energy in Vienna, Austria. At the same time, the "U.S. gasoline contract was reportedly supported by a number of problems with gasoline making units at the country's refineries," JBC Energy said.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 3980 Target 4065 and 4100 Stop loss 3965
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 378 Target 389 and 396 Stop loss 372
MCXARUN
9994500540
§ Gas and diesel prices, meanwhile, retreated further from recent their record levels.
§ Consumer confidence fell much more than expected this month, according to the Conference Board. The decline increased the oil market's concerns that hesitant consumers would further weaken the economy and depress demand for fuel.
§ Meanwhile, home prices as measured by the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index fell by 11.4 percent in January.
§ Many analysts believe the dollar's recent depreciation was the primary reason oil surged to a record near $112 a barrel last week, since oil and other commodities are seen as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar.
§ The recent decline in oil prices has been far from decisive, and there are signs that some investors are willing to look beyond the dollar for future price direction. Some investors have sold contracts on concerns that a slowing U.S. economy would dampen crude oil demand. Last week, oil prices dipped in part on worry that Bear Stearns' near-collapse was a sign of significant economic problems.
§ Some analysts believe oil's recent declines are temporary -- a correction in a bull market -- and that prices will forge higher again when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, as is widely expected. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar.
§ Heating oil futures were higher as demand was almost 10 percent above average levels for this time of the year, as U.S. weather forecasts were expecting lower temperatures than normal this week, said a report from JBC Energy in Vienna, Austria. At the same time, the "U.S. gasoline contract was reportedly supported by a number of problems with gasoline making units at the country's refineries," JBC Energy said.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 3980 Target 4065 and 4100 Stop loss 3965
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 378 Target 389 and 396 Stop loss 372
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
§ Gold rose inNew York as the dollar resumed a decline against the euro. Silver also gained. The euro climbed as much as 1.1 percent against the dollar after dropping 1.6 percent last week, snapping five consecutive gains. Gold reached a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17 as the euro traded at an all-time high $1.5903.
§ The market was reminded of the economy's ongoing problems when the Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. The reading – a five-year low -- was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
§ Tight credit markets, rising prices and declining employment have consumers worrying aboaut a recession, and the stock market in turn worrying that consumers will cut back their spending and further weaken the economy.
§ Platinum futures in Tokyo gained for a third time in four trading days as the yen halted its gain and on signs demand for the metal will surpass supply as output at mines in South Africa, the world's biggest producer, may decline.
§ Platinum output is expected to lag behind demand this year, while palladium production will probably outpace it, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. The shortfall in platinum production is expected to widen to 400,000 ounces this year, from 265,000 ounces last year, according to a report last month by Standard Bank Group Ltd.
US Economy:
§ The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices showed a decline of 11.4% in January, the biggest monthly drop since the index began in 1987.
§ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped from 76.4 to 64.5 in March, much weaker than expected.
Currency Update:
§ StatisticsCanada reported that retail sales increased 1.5% in January to C$35.8 billion, led by automotive sales. It was the biggest monthly increase in eight months. The June Canadian dollar is steady.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12020-30 Target 12110 and 12160 Stop loss 11989
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22550 Target 22850 and 23100 stop loss 22280
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§ The market was reminded of the economy's ongoing problems when the Conference Board, a business-backed research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 64.5 in March from a revised 76.4 in February. The reading – a five-year low -- was far below the 73.0 expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson/IFR.
§ Tight credit markets, rising prices and declining employment have consumers worrying aboaut a recession, and the stock market in turn worrying that consumers will cut back their spending and further weaken the economy.
§ Platinum futures in Tokyo gained for a third time in four trading days as the yen halted its gain and on signs demand for the metal will surpass supply as output at mines in South Africa, the world's biggest producer, may decline.
§ Platinum output is expected to lag behind demand this year, while palladium production will probably outpace it, according to Johnson Matthey Plc. The shortfall in platinum production is expected to widen to 400,000 ounces this year, from 265,000 ounces last year, according to a report last month by Standard Bank Group Ltd.
US Economy:
§ The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices showed a decline of 11.4% in January, the biggest monthly drop since the index began in 1987.
§ The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped from 76.4 to 64.5 in March, much weaker than expected.
Currency Update:
§ StatisticsCanada reported that retail sales increased 1.5% in January to C$35.8 billion, led by automotive sales. It was the biggest monthly increase in eight months. The June Canadian dollar is steady.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Gold April: Buy at 12020-30 Target 12110 and 12160 Stop loss 11989
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations -MCX Silver May: Buy at 22550 Target 22850 and 23100 stop loss 22280
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outlook
June gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week's high. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level
crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 974.30 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 972.30. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 974.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38%
retracement level crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.512 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.900 then the 25% retracement level
crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term
low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.73 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 372.19. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 379.73. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing
at 99.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the reaction low
crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing 105.32 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.86. Second resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 105.32. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 98.65. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.629 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If April renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.592 then the 10-day moving average crossing at
9.629. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 8.732.
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the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level
crossing at 897.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 974.30 would confirm that
a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 972.30. Second resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 974.30. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 909.00. Second support is the 38%
retracement level crossing at 897.80.
May silver closed higher on Tuesday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close
sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the 50% retracement level
crossing at 16.585 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.512 are needed to
confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 17.900 then the 25% retracement level
crossing at 19.015. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 16.725 then the 50% retracement level crossing at 16.585.
May copper closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a
steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term
low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.73 are needed to confirm that a low has
been posted. If May renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 344.85 is
the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 372.19. Second resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 379.73. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 346.10. Second support is the 50%
retracement level crossing at 358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 25% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing
at 99.77. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's decline, the reaction low
crossing at 98.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing 105.32 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.86. Second resistance is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 105.32. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 98.65. Second support is the reaction
low crossing at 98.33.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the
stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low
might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.629 would confirm that a short-term low has been
posted. If April renews last week's decline, the 50% retracement level of December-March rally crossing at 8.732 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.592 then the 10-day moving average crossing at
9.629. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 8.750. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally
crossing at 8.732.
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4023BEARISH BELOW 4003
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12107BEARISH BELOW 12067
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22953 BEARISH BELOW 22860
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 324.40 BEARISH BELOW 323.30
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 111.10 BEARISH BELOW 110.50
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1177 BEARISH BELOW 1170
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 93.80 BEARISH BELOW 93.30
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12107BEARISH BELOW 12067
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22953 BEARISH BELOW 22860
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 324.40 BEARISH BELOW 323.30
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 111.10 BEARISH BELOW 110.50
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1177 BEARISH BELOW 1170
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 93.80 BEARISH BELOW 93.30
MCXARUN
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