GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The volatility in commodities markets is very high. This is driving some of the day traders away from the market. I have found that some of the traders who used to trade in 1kg of gold in MCX have shifted to 100 grams of gold in MCX due to volatility. Intra day markets move in a certain trend, if one trades against the trend, the stop loss is bound to be hit. Many a times first the stop loss is hit and then the target comes. This is happening on intra day trades. The best way to beat this is (A) Determine the trend (B) Wait for the prices to near the expected buying or selling level (C) Use higher stop losses. When the average intra day volatility in MCX is over Rs.200 it is no use putting a stop loss of Rs.40 on a trade. (D) Do not wait for the target, exit even when prices near the same.

The Federal Reserve ramped up its liquidity support operations again in an effort to reduce money market strains and pre-empt the possibility of funding crises at the year-end or at other stress points. The Fed said it would offer three-month cash loans to banks and create a new options auction facility. It also said it would give investment banks and other primary dealers extended access to emergency cash and loans of Treasury securities until January 30. The options facility is similar to the strategy used by the Fed in 1999 to deal with the risk of a millennium Y2K liquidity crisis. The Fed will auction $50bn of options giving dealers the right but not the obligation to swap illiquid securities for Treasuries over periods of likely funding stress, such as the year-end. In my view the Fed thinks that printing more US dollars can solve the US pain of lower economic growth. This is very positive for gold and other safe havens in the long term. Only investors need to withstand short term volatility.

COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $354.0

Copper needs to fall below $349 for another round of selling to $332. Resistance is at $368 and $378.

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "close below 12575 test 12375 atleast/towards 12250 in coming days" ACHIEVED AS DAYS LOW=12284 book profit on sell below 12670-60/12585, for the day buy ard 12332-36 S/L 12325 and T/p 12390/ 12435 OR sell ard 12700-710 S/L 12715 and T/p 12660-12620 (any time close above 13465/13775 bullish while close below 12525/12150/11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON REPORT Dt.23-7-08 "close below 24725 test 24300 & 23700 in coming days" ACHIEVED EXACT AS YESTERDAY LOW=23670. for the day buy ard 24120-130 S/L 24100 and T/p 24220-300/24375 OR buy only abv 24750-775 S/L 24675 and T/p 24900/25000/sustain close abv 24775 test 25200 in coming days (any time close below 23670/ 23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 24775/26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day buy only abv 5400 S/L 5375 and T/p 5435-40/towards 5510-40 in coming days OR buy ard 5180-82 S/L 5170 and T/p 5210-40/towards 5300, Now as long support of 5200 & 5100, more bounce back expected (now crude need to close above 5380/5680/6040/ 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5100-5060 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

book profit on buy abv 342, for the day buy abv 344 S/L 342.5 and T/p 346/349-50 OR buy ard 336.4-336.8 S/L 336 and T/p 339-342 (upside strong rally only on close above 351/360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 331.5-330.5/326/311 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540