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Oil slides as Opec calls emergency meeting

By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London

Published: October 9 2008 17:23 | Last updated: October 9 2008 21:53

Oil prices plunged below $85 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level in a year, as Opec, the oil exporting countries’ cartel, called an emergency meeting to discuss reducing its crude production to halt the collapse in prices.

The announcement came as crude oil futures in New York fell almost $5 to an intraday low of $84.19 a barrel, the lowest level since October 2007.

In late afternoon trading in New York, oil was down $4.14 to $84.81 a barrel.

The drop suggested that the market was firmly focused on the impact of the financial crisis on global economic growth and energy demand next year, rather than in the cartel’s action.

The cartel, which controls 40 per cent of the world’s oil output, said in an unusually frank statement that it was concerned about the “deteriorating economic conditions with contagion risks” and will meet in four weeks to tackle the problem.

Gold, seen as a safe haven in turbulent times, recovered earlier losses to trade at $913 an ounce, up $8 on the day.

Harry Tchilinguirian, an oil analyst at BNP Paribas in London, said the correction in oil prices had come to closely track movements in equity indices and, until such time that credit conditions normalise and confidence returns, “this is likely to continue”.

He cut his price forecast for the first quarter to $81.30 a barrel, adding that prices would average in 2009 about $95 a barrel, well below the $115 a barrel he predicted just a month ago. Oil prices have fallen almost 43 per cent from July’s all-time high of $147.27 a barrel.

The US Department of Energy reported this week that the country’s oil demand averaged 18.66m barrels a day last week, down 8.6 per cent against the same period a year ago as the economic downturn takes its toll on oil consumption. High prices during the summer have forced US motorists to cut their mileage.

Olivier Jakob, of Switzerland-based consultancy Petromatrix, said: “Be it in November or in December, be it formally or informally, Opec will need to reduce production not because the price is currently too low but because there is not enough demand.”

Opec said it would meet on November 18 in Vienna, a month before it was originally due to have its next gathering.

The fall in oil prices was not mirrored in other commodity markets. Agricultural commodities and base metals rose.


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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The investor is no idiot. Even if central banks hide or manipulate all the statistical information he will not get swayed or carried away by the same. This is the message given by the investors to the central banks after the fall in global stock markets despite coordinated interest rate cuts by all the central banks.

The Dow Jones closed below 9000 on signs that carmakers will be the next victims of the credit crisis. Coordinated interest-rate reductions by major central banks on October 8 failed to revive lending among banks. The 3 month London interbank offered rate (Libor), rose to 4.75% yesterday, the highest level since December 28. It's an absolute panic in stocks. Bad assets need to be taken off balance sheets, new capital needs to be added and then we might, maybe, get a respite.

Yamato Life Insurance Co., a Japanese insurer, filed for court protection from creditors in the nation's first bankruptcy in the industry in seven years, with debt exceeding assets by 11.5 billion yen ($116 million). US credit woes now are spreading to Japan. I hope the spread will be limited to developed nations. If US credit woes spread across emerging markets then there will be a total break down in the global financial system.

If interest rates and other measures taken by various central banks fail then currency devaluation could be the next step. Currency devaluation will happen if and only if the measures fail. This is just one of the measures which I am not ignoring and will not happen in 2009. If central bank measures fail by 2009 then there is a realistic chance of currency devaluation in 2010.

Markets will be looking forward to the G7 meeting over the weekend for comments and further actions.

COMEX COPPER DECEMBER

$200 should provide some support. Highly oversold conditions exist. A close below $244 today and next Friday will result in $170 and $140. Resistance starts at $244 and $280.


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