Gold Intraday Outlook

U.S. gold futures ended lower after trading in a tight range yesterday as bullion investors looked for a new catalyst from markets outside of the commodities sector to fuel the metal's recent rally amid inflation concerns. But down side was limited due to the dollar weakness. August futures did not fall further as the dollar hit a five-week low against major currencies after strong earnings from JP Morgan tarnished the U.S. currency's safe haven appeal.

But According to the report from U.S. Labour Department, jobless claims were down 47,000 last week to 522,000, the lowest since the first week of 2009. The big drop may have been distorted by unusual activity in the auto industry.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing fell from -2.2 to -7.5 in July, weaker than expected.

On Wednesday, Gold rose to a two-week high above $940 an ounce as the dollar tumbled after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose faster than expected in June.

According to the U.S. Labour Department, consumer prices were up 0.7% in June, but down 1.4% from a year ago.

Weekly Outlook (DG. Aug.)

Expected trading range $903 – $920 .Breaking either side may clear the direction. Supports are $934, $948.Supports are $884 $864.

Last day DGCX Gold Aug Traded in the range $939.70-$932.90 and closed at $ 936.90

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 938 bearish below $932


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Gold Intraday Outlook

U.S. gold futures fell toward $920 an ounce yesterday as tumbling crude oil prices reinforced the view that inflation was nowhere imminent, weighing on bullion's appeal as a store of value.

U.S. crude oil futures ended lower for the fourth day in a row on Monday as economic concerns reflected in dismal jobs data, tepid demand and rising fuel inventories pressured the oil markets. Oil prices fell to a five-week low around $64 a barrel on doubts over a prompt recovery of the global economy, hurting gold's inflation hedge appeal.

India's gold imports in June were likely around 8 to 10 tonnes, down from 24 tonnes the same month a year ago - Bombay Bullion Association.

The Bombay Bullion Association said demand for gold and silver from India, the world's biggest bullion consumer, is likely to be pressured further this year by an increase in import duty in the budget for 2009/10. India's doubling of import duty on gold and silver is likely to encourage recycling of the metals locally in what could continue to keep imports subdued for the rest of this year also affected the bullion movements .

At the same time, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, said holdings stood at 1,120.19 tonnes as of July 6, down 0.36 tonnes or 0.03 percent from the previous business day.

Holdings in the trust, which issues securities backed by physical stocks of gold, have declined in the past few weeks as growing optimism about the global economy sapped investors' appetite for bullion as a safe-haven asset.

Weekly Outlook (DG. Aug.)

Supports are $920, 912 and 900 Resistances are 948, 965 and 986

Last day DGCX Gold Aug Traded in the range $931.40-$920.60 and closed at $ 923.90

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 927 bearish below $920


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target hit

this is our important chart that posted in feb 10th

as per our call
if break and close above 930$ chance upto 955$ and 989$
see market exactly hit our target

click here to see that post

and click the pic to see the large view


need mcx tips to your mobile contact
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DGCX Crude Outlook 10th Feb, 09

U.S. crude oil futures settled lower yesterday as concerns about recession and demand. Weakness in heating oil and gasoline futures also weighed on oil prices.

At the same time OPEC view on production limited the crude price from more falling .According to the report, OPEC is willing to cut oil output further at a March meeting, the group's secretary-general said Monday, adding he would like to see full compliance with existing curbs first. OPEC's president and ministers from Iraq, Venezuela and Iran have also raised the prospect of more cuts.

U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Friday also as oil demand worries mounted after government data showed the economy last month shed the biggest number of jobs in 34 years and Crude oil speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange cut net long positions sharply in the week to Feb. 3, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

42.65 And 39.85 is the trading range, breaking either side may clear the direction. Resistances are $44.70, 47.38. Supports are at $37.10, $34.80.

DWTI (MAR) traded in the range $42.20 - $39.45and closed at $39.56

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (MAR) - Bullish above $39.80 Bearish below $39.30

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DGCX Gold Outlook 10th Feb, 09

Gold futures ended below $900 an ounce yesterday on profit taking from the recent rally, triggered by optimism ahead of economic stimulus plans to be unveiled by the U.S. government.

Traders were awaiting an announcement on Washington's massive stimulus plan. The Senate was due to vote on the package later Monday to clear the way for its passage on Tuesday.

But at the same time the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust said its bullion holdings held unchanged at a record 867.19 tonnes as of Feb. 6.

U.S. gold futures fell on Friday also as weaker than expected U.S. jobs data boosts expectations Washington will act quickly to implement its fiscal stimulus policy, with rising stock markets suggesting some investment is being diverted back into shares.
According to the report from U.S Labour Department, jobless claims were up 35,000 last week to 626,000, more than expected and the most in 26 years. And also U.S. Labour Department said that productivity was up an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter, more than expected. Unit labour costs were up an annual rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter, less than expected.
International spot gold traded in the range $ 911.70- $ 879.80a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $894.50

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

$933 is the major resistances .If sustain above that level, expect more uptrend. Resistances are $954, $968, $988. Supports are at $909, $899, $881 and $862.

Last day DGCX Gold APR. Traded in the range $909.70-$892.90and closed at $ 895.40

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (APR) - Bullish above $ 898bearish below $ 893

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DGCX Gold Outlook 5th Feb, 09

U.S. gold futures settled up 1 percent yesterday, rebounding from the previous session's decline on worries over massive liquidity injections by central banks and the expectation of more uptrend in precious metals in light of major brokerage upgraded its price forecast.

Gold prices rose yesterday despite strong dollar as Passage of President Barack Obama's $825 billion proposed economic stimulus package would likely be inflationary.

According to the report from UBS, Gold investment demand will double in 2009 compared to 2007, and gold prices will average $1,000 an ounce in 2009.

The U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.054 trillion in December, down 1.4% from November's pace. For all of 2008, construction spending totaled $1.079 trillion, down 5.1% from a year ago.

International spot gold traded in the range $ 908.70- $ 894.50a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $905.40

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

$933 is the major resistances .If sustain above that level, expect more uptrend. Resistances are $954, $968, $988. Supports are at $909, $899, $881 and $862.

Last day DGCX Gold APR. Traded in the range $910.30-$896.60and closed at $ 905.40

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (APR) - Bullish above $ 899bearish below $ 894



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DGCX Crude Outlook 5th Feb, 09

U.S. crude oil futures closed lower yesterday as the inventory data and economic concerns.

The U.S. Department of Energy said that crude oil stocks were up 7.2 million barrels to 346.1 million barrels and 700,000 barrels were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Supplies of gasoline were up 300,000 barrels while heating oil supplies were up 1.4 million barrels.

The DOE also said that refinery use increased from 82.5% to 83.5% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was down 0.5% from a year ago while distillate demand was down 3.7% from a year ago.

On weekly basis ,U.S. crude futures ended weak last week , as gloomy economic data kept concerns about demand in focus even as the possibility of a refinery worker strike in the United States . Large inventory data from US also added pressure in to the crude oil prices.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

48.40 And 44.30 is the trading range, breaking either side may clear the direction. Resistances are $50.50, 52.40, and 54.30. Supports are at $41.60, $39.30, $ 37.00

DWTI (MAR) traded in the range $41.40 - $39.95and closed at $40.32

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (MAR) - Bullish above $40.60bearish below $40.00

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Global Recap – 3rd Feb, 09

Gold's turned below $900 as underlying fundamentals are weak according to the world's largest gold producer, along with Russia the states reporting rising production while jewellery demand is soft. China's production hit a record 282 tonnes in 2008, the China Gold Association said, up 4.3% from 2007. High prices are scaring off jewellery buyers, who account for almost 70% of global demand for gold. The volume of gold jewellery sales in Abu Dhabi fell 70% in January due to rising prices.

OPEC will discuss a further supply cut of about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) when it meets in March if oil prices remain low, an OPEC source told Reuters. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on March 15 in Vienna. Despite OPEC agreeing since September to reduce supply by a total of 4.2 million bpd, oil prices remain around $41 a barrel, a level that officials from the group say is too low. Pending sales of existing U.S. homes rebounded as buyers waded back into the market to take advantage of lower prices and mortgage interest rates.

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in December, surged 6.3% to 87.7, rising for the first time since August. Compared with the same period a year-ago, pending homes sale were up 2.1% in December. Last week, the NAR reported an unexpected rise in existing home sales in December, driven mainly by distressed sales, with prices falling from a year earlier by the biggest margin in over 40 years. Stability in the housing market is critical to the U.S. economy's recovery. The economy slipped into recession in December 2007. Falling house prices, coupled with the stock market collapse and tight access to credit, have hit consumer spending, which accounts for about two thirds of U.S. economic activity.

Copper rose on optimism over U.S. home-sales data, but rising inventories capped greater gains. Pending sales of existing U.S. homes rebounded in December, data showed as buyers waded back into the market to take advantage of lower prices and mortgage interest rates. The Institute for Supply Management's index of U.S. factory activity rose to 35.6 in January from a near three-decade low of 32.9 in December, above expectations, but still showing the sector shrinking. Weak demand prospects were reflected in the rise in inventories. Copper inventories on the LME rose 4,100 tonnes to 495,300 tonnes, the highest since late 2003, while aluminum stocks grew 28,300 tonnes to a record of around 2.84 million tonnes.


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important charts

click the pics to large viwe







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DGCX Crude Outlook 28th Jan, 09

U.S. crude futures settled 9 percent lower yesterday, declining on reports of plunging U.S. consumer confidence and home prices that kept concerns about slumping oil demand in focus. Expectation of build up in weekly inventory also influenced the oil prices

According to the data, The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities was down 18.2% in November from a year ago, roughly as expected.

The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence fell from 38.6 to 37.7 in January, weaker than expected. Richmond Federal Reserve's regional index of manufacturing improved from -55 to -49 in January, still a sign of contraction.

Weak movements in natural gas futures also adversely affected the crude oil movements.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

Expecting bullish movements above $44.25; Resistances are $47, $50 and $55. Supports are at $41.70, $39.30, $ 35.50

DWTI (JAN) traded in the range $47.08 - $41.75and closed at $41.58

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (January) - Bullish above $41.73bearish below $41.20


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DGCX Gold Outlook 28th Jan, 09

U.S. gold futures ended lower yesterday after a three-session winning streak, as investors locked in profits after the price of bullion recently rallied based on safe-haven buying amid economic worries and strong investment demand. Weak oil prices also adversely affected the precious metals movements. Oil price dropped more than $4 to below $42 per barrel, triggered profit taking in gold futures.

At the same time dollar fell against the euro yesterdays after data showed prices of U.S. single-family homes dropped by a record 18.2 percent in November from a year earlier.

According to the data, The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 cities was down 18.2% in November from a year ago, roughly as expected.

But on Monday gold rose above $900 an ounce to the highest level in more than three months as interest in bullion as a haven from risk and a weaker dollar against the euro supported buying. Fresh investment demand in light of weak world economy also supported the precious metals movements.

International spot gold traded in the range $ 906.90- $ 891.50 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $897.30

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

Gold prices if sustain above 905 is bullish. Resistances are $918, $833, $952 and 988. Supports are at $892, $875, $861.

Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $909.30-$894.80and closed at $ 899.80

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 903 bearish below $ 897

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Global Recap -21st Jan, 09

Crude oil revolved around $40 a barrel as further evidence emerged of a deepening global slowdown that is crushing demand for fuel. The global oil demand is expected to contract more sharply in 2009 than previously expected, as the deepening economic crisis spreads to the developing world. World oil demand is predicted to fall by 430,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to 85.43 million bpd, with demand growth in emerging economies falling by more than half compared to 2008. Moreover China in its six-year commodity price rally started in 2002, was expected to release fourth-quarter GDP data this week that economists say will show 7.0% growth, the slowest pace of expansion in nearly a decade for the world's third-biggest economy. Crude oil stocks in the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer, rose by 1.4 million barrels last week, with distillate stocks seen down 1.4 million barrels due to cold winter weather. Gasoline stocks are expected to be up 2.1 million barrels, up 5.1 million barrels from a year ago.

Gold eased but held above $850 an ounce as interest in the metal as a haven from risk supported prices. A combination of underperformance in other assets, fears over economic growth and the falling interest rate environment are all boosting the appeal of gold. On the currency markets, the euro firmed a touch against the dollar amid a spate of bad news from the euro zone economies. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet played down the threat of deflation as he hinted at further interest rate cuts and dismissed speculation about a euro zone break-up. Trichet said that while the central bank was wary of cutting interest rates too low, policymakers had not said the current 2% setting was the lowest level. Financial turmoil and downgrades to Greece and Spain's credit ratings. The economy is expected to contract by 1.6% this year, twice the 0.8% fall seen in last month's poll, but slightly better than the 1.9% contraction forecast by the European Commission.

Copper dwindled and aluminum slumped to a 5-1/2 year low as news that world's biggest miner BHP Billiton was cutting jobs due to the global recession hit market sentiment. BHP, which until now had set itself apart from other miners by maintaining output, writing off $1.6 billion, as it battles a collapse in commodity prices. Further rise in copper and aluminum stocks also weighed on prices. Aluminum producers have moved towards cutting output but there is so many surpluses metal around in the world that making its way into the warehouses. But the supply cutbacks have so far failed to support metal prices as the market focused on demand, which analysts said had dried up in the last couple of months. Falling base metal prices due to a slump in demand have forced miners to scale-back production and downsize. Consumption in China temporarily cools with most firms having finished their purchases ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.


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Global Recap – 20th Jan, 09

Crude oil rallied in volatile trading as the NYMEX February crude contract approached expiration. Crude oil had slumped amid concerns over slumping demand in a weak economy and Russia's resumption of natural gas flows to Europe via Ukraine. A stronger dollar and weaker equities had also weighed on the oil complex. Russian natural gas reached Europe via Ukraine for the first time in two weeks. The dollar climbed broadly, boosted by sterling's tumble to a 7-1/2 year low, while the view that the euro zone will suffer a deep recession pushed the euro to a six-week low. Elsewhere OPEC is fully enforcing its recent supply cuts, which should be enough to boost prices that have slumped below $40 a barrel, OPEC's president told. Kuwait has informed all customers of cuts in oil supply in line with OPEC's December curbs, state oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corp said.

Gold surged amid market talk of a large order, with firm investment demand for gold as a haven from risk fuelling buying of the precious metal. Gold shrugged off early weakness linked to a strengthening U.S. dollar and weaker oil prices. The dollar rose to a six-week high against the euro as traders worried about the outlook for the euro zone economy, after the European Commission issued a grim forecast for 2009 an Standard and Poor's cut Spain's debt ratings. The other main external driver of gold, crude oil, steadied after tumbling almost 10% in earlier trade, after Russia and Ukraine agreed on a gas deal that will help secure supplies to Europe and traders worried over the outlook for demand. Overall, fears over the outlook for the global economy and the financial system are boosting interest in products like exchange-traded funds which issue securities backed by actual stocks of gold.

Copper tumbled on a stronger dollar and as a jump in inventories added to concerns about demand. However supplies are still growing as evidenced by the inventory accumulation so there is more pain to come. Copper dragged all the industrial metals lower, with aluminum falling to its lowest price since July 2003 and nickel down around 4%. Stocks of copper and aluminum, the two biggest contracts on the LME, have been growing as prices for the two metals have slumped about 60% since last July's record highs. Furthermore copper inventories in LME warehouses jumped 15,425 tonnes the biggest one-day jump since Sept. 4 to 409,100 tonnes, the highest price since January 2004 when prices were around $2,375. China's economy in the fourth quarter probably grew 7.0% from a year earlier.


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gold outlook 08.01.09

Trend
(08.01.09)
Gold:
830.90-849.20;
Resist:
861.70;
Suport:
818.40;
Silver:
10.78-11.20;
Resist;
11.48:
Support:
10.50;


this is today trend, we expect the range is 830$ to 850$,
already we said gold close below 840$ is weak, but gold still trading above 840$,
that means still market is range bound,
last day also all of our safe trade calls target hit.

from 11AM this blog will close,
itz only for our paid customers
call me 9994500540
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Crude Outlook 6th Jan,

U.S. crude oil futures settled at the highest level in a month yesterday as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Oil rose 5 percent as Israel deepened its thrust into Gaza on the 10th day of violence. OPEC's Jan. 1 cut also helped to lift oil prices.

Russia's dispute with Ukraine over natural gas prices increased the worry about the price and supply of the gas and influenced the oil.

Fog-related shipping delays on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a U.S. Department of Energy announcement about buying crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum reserve also helped oil prices.

On weekly basis U.S. crude oil futures recovered after a two week of falling and settled up at $46.34 per bl as Short-covering prompted by a failed cease-fire effort in the Middle East, growing tension between Russia and Ukraine over energy. Fog-related shipping delays on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a U.S. Department of Energy announcement about buying crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum reserve also helped oil prices.

Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $49.28- $45.56, and settled at $46.34a barrel yesterday.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

Expecting uptrend above $42.80.Resistances are $46.60 $49.80, and $55.00, Supports seen at $39.00, $36.80 and $35.30.


DWTI (JAN) traded in the range $49 - $45.65 and closed at $48.81

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (January) - Bullish above $49bearish below $48.40


MCXARUN
9994500540

Global Recap – 5th Jan, 09

Crude oil prices fluctuated around $47 a barrel as Israel's deepening incursion into Gaza and the Russian gas dispute heightened geopolitical supply fears. However, prices swung in and out of positive territory as a rally in the U.S. dollar encouraged profit-taking by investors, with oil prices up by more than 30% since the end of December. Oil prices have risen sharply from around $35 a barrel since Israel launched its Gaza offensive on Dec. 27, heightening fears for crude supplies from the Middle East. An Iranian military commander called for Islamic producers to cut supplies to Israel's supporters in Europe and the United States. OPEC's most influential member Saudi Arabia and neighbours Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are regional allies of the United States. However Gaza violence does not directly threaten any oil production, but there was underlying concern it could affect other countries in the Middle East, with little sign of the violence abating.

Gold dropped below $845 an ounce on the back of a dollar rally and signs of slowing physical demand. Gold weighed down heavily by a sharply higher dollar based on expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks and news of a planned U.S. stimulus package. Reports of tumbling physical gold imports by top consumer India confirmed concerns of slowing bullion demand in emerging economies. Meanwhile gold imports by India plunged by 81% in December and down 47% in 2008, as high prices and a slowing economy dented demand.

Copper edged higher recouping earlier losses and extending a New Year's rally that saw prices climb nearly 11% in two days. Copper up in modest short-covering rebound after prices fail to break down below $1.40. Copper's morning gains buck stronger tone in the dollar, which hit a three-week high against the Euro amid expectations of interest rates cuts by major central banks and news of a planned U.S. stimulus package. Copper supported by economic data showing a less than expected decline in U.S. construction spending. China will allow tax-free imports of copper, nickel and cobalt concentrate from Feb. 1, as long as the finished products are re-exported, according to a statement on the Ministry of Commerce's website (www.mofcom.gov.cn).

U.S. construction spending tumbled by 0.6% for the month of November, according to the Commerce Department report, showing that building at the end of 2008 was stronger than Wall Street had expected. However analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated the drop to be a much steeper 1.3%. October's change was also revised to down 0.4% from the originally reported drop of 1.2%. Moreover public spending, on the other hand, increased 1.4%.


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9994500540

energy outlook

MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS

NYMEX January Crude Oil futures ended the week 25.02% lower than the previous week.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls plunged by 533,000 in November, the worst job loss in 34 years and much bigger than the projected loss of 350,000.

The Labor Department also reported that the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in November, the highest jobless rate since October 1993.

MARKET RECAP

Crude Oil futures ended down for the sixth straight session on Friday, marking lowest settlement price in 4 years, after a US government report showed that US employers cut jobs in November at the fastest pace since 1974. NYMEX January Crude Oil futures were down by 6.54% to close at $40.81 a barrel, the lowest closing level since 13th December 2004.

Oil prices were trading on negative note in the last week, as bleak economic data from US and Europe indicated that recession in these countries could deepen further and affect energy demand negatively. Relatively firm dollar against major currencies also weighed on oil prices.

New York Mercantile Exchange Natural Gas futures traded lower on Friday, as fall in oil prices pulled gas prices lower. January Natural Gas futures were down by 4.67% to close at $5.767.

OUTLOOK

After oil prices have fallen by more than 70%, OPEC president has said in his interview that cartel will need to cut production significantly to support prices during its meet on 17th December. Oil prices are likely to rise in the near term after witnessing sharp fall on account of technical buying, but underlying fundamentals are still bearish. Crude Oil prices have fallen sharply amidst growing concern over global recession and falling oil demand. Energy Markets are increasingly concerned, that the worldwide economic decline is too pronounced to be fixed any time soon and a worldwide recession will curtail energy demand. In the current environment of a firm dollar and deteriorating economic outlook, the short-term price risk remains skewed to the downside.

NYMEX Crude Oil prices are trading at multi year low levels. The overall trend still continues to remain down as prices are still closing below its short-term 9-Day Moving Average. We can witness some consolidation in crude prices with crucial resistance seen at $44.10/$46.20 level & support at $41.50/$39.90 levels.

Natural Gas prices are expected to trade on negative note, as weak oil prices and sluggish demand during winter season is weighing on prices. MCX Dec contract has support at 266.50 levels & resistance at 285.60 levels.


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9994500540

base metals outlook

MARKET RECAP

Base metals struggled around their fresh multi-year lows on Friday as the complex remained gripped by depressed sentiment and fears of a deep global recession. A host of negative data from the US also added pressure on base metal prices. Base metals saw new lows on Friday as concerns over economic growth coupled with technical selling hit prices the hardest. Even LME inventory data was bearish for all metals except Nickel.

Copper prices declined below their strong support of $3,100 and touched a low of $2,990 on Friday. Continuous rise in LME inventories coupled with weak economic data pulled the red metal sharply lower. However, copper managed to close above $3,060 on Friday. Aluminum prices fell under $1,500 as prices felt the pressure of declining crude oil prices and weak economic situation. Overall the complex declined sharply on Friday as the release of US economic data raised concerns of the global recession that we are currently facing.

On the macroeconomic front, the US Labour Department announced that non-farm payrolls for the month of November stood at 533,000, its weakest performance in 34 years. This shows that the recession affected the jobs market to such a large extent. Another negative data was the release of US consumer credit that declined by $3.5bn or 1.6% at an annual rate.

OUTLOOK

The overall financial market scenario is weak and this has hurt trading sentiments across the globe. Hence, the trend in base metals remains down. Base metals may have witnessed few short-covering rallies in the past month but metals could not sustain at those levels as profit-booking emerged. Since markets are in a bearish phase technical selling cannot be ruled out. Along with that, a major rise in inventories has also put pressure on prices.

Copper prices dipped below their marginal cost of production of $3,100 and this indicates that markets are concerned over demand of the metal in times of a global recession. Aluminum price continue to face the threat of a fall in crude oil prices. Overall situation of rising inventories is also acting as a bearish factor. We expect base metals to remain volatile throughout this week.

On the macroeconomic front, weak economic performance across the globe is affecting trading sentiments. Financial markets are feeling the pain of the long and deep economic recession which is expected to continue through the next year.

Copper

Copper prices have been trading range bound for past few trading sessions with immediate support seen at Rs.163.10 levels for MCX Feb contract. Further below, support is seen at 159.40 levels.

Whereas resistance is seen at Rs.171.10 levels & further upwards at Rs. 176.80.

Zinc

Immediate support is seen at Rs.53.70 levels for MCX December contract whereas crucial support is seen at Rs.52.20 levels.

Short-term resistance is seen at Rs.56.50 whereas major resistance is seen at Rs 58.65.


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gold outlook

MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS

Gold assets held in exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to 1.708 million ounces, from 1.615 million on Dec. 2, the Jersey, Channel Islands-based company said yesterday.

The US Federal Reserve meets on Dec. 16 to decide on further rate cut the world’s largest economy in recession.

MARKET RECAP

Last week, Spot gold fell sharply losing almost $63 over the week as selling pressure was witnessed at higher levels. The dollar continued to strengthen during the week whereas crude prices continued to make multi-year lows, both leading to a sell-off in bullion prices. Also, with the global equities markets still suffering from bearish sentiments and negative news, sell-off across various asset classes can still be seen across the world. Last week, the Bank of England (BOE) dropped its key lending rate by a full percentage point to 2%, the lowest level for the benchmark since 1939. The European Central Bank (ECB) also slashed its key lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 2.5%. The cut is the largest in the ECB's 10-year history.

In currency market, the Euro trading sideways for the week with short-term support level of 1.2540 whereas resistance is seen at 1.2870. The overall trend still remains sideways-down unless we see a close above 1.2842 and consistent trading above the same. The low of 1.2328 made on 28th October shall continue to act as a very strong support.

OUTLOOK

The overall trend remains down for Gold as the $ is still going strong. Also, inflationary pressures have eased considerably with the sharp fall in crude prices. While the dollar has been the beneficiary of bigger-than-expected rate cuts in Europe, last week’s U.S. jobs data (Nonfarm Payrolls) could pressurize the dollar with the focus now shifting back toward the U.S. economic numbers. Also, a 50 basis point rate cut by the US Fed is currently being expected by market participants in the next week.

Deflation continues to be the key macro development to watch, as gold’s attraction has been waning. The movement in gold prices is presently being driven primarily by the Dollar direction. The Dollar Index has resistance at 87.40 & support at 85.60 for the day. Currency & crude shall continue to play an important role in impacting bullion prices in coming days.

On intraday basis, Spot Gold prices have immediate support at $772/$782 whereas resistance is seen at $760/$752. Spot Silver prices shall find support at $9.58/$9.30 whereas resistance is seen at $9.80/$10.00.

MCX Feb Gold has support at 12100/11950 whereas resistance is seen at 12260/12390 levels whereas MCX March Silver shall find support at 16550/16270 whereas resistance is seen at 16820/16980 levels.


MCXARUN
9994500540

nymex crude outlook

U.S. crude futures fell below $51 yesterday and settled lower as demand worries after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank more severely during the third quarter than initially estimated.

According to the U.S. Commerce Department, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of -.5% in the third quarter, down from the previous estimate of -.3%, as expected.

But on Monday crude oil closed in the green in line with the stock rally .Stocks rallied after the announcement of U.S governments rescue package for Citigroup .U.S. government agreed to inject $20 billion of new capital to rescue troubled Citigroup yesterday. Investors remain cautious due to concerns about a global recession; they welcomed the U.S. government's $300 billion-plus lifeline to prevent the collapse of the world's largest banking group

According to the International Energy Agency, the Oil prices will remain under downward pressure in 2009 as the weak global economy hits demand. And also a report says that the oil companies are booking tankers to store millions of barrels of crude oil at sea, waiting for demand and prices to rise.

All the oil traders are keeping their eyes to the OPEC meeting that will be held on Nov. 29 in Egypt and again on Dec. 17 in Algeria.

According to a monthly report from the American Petroleum Institutions the oil demand had dropped 5% from January through October -- marking their largest decline since the early 1980s,
As crude-oil prices has drooped more than 63% from their record high as the credit crunch deepened. Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.
Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $54.66-$50.52, and settled at $50.65 a barrel yesterday.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI dec.)

Weak movements expected below $48.20, otherwise expecting some recovery .Resistances are $51 $54.30, $58.80, Supports seen at $44.80, $40.20, and$ 35.

DWTI (DEC) traded in the range $53.85 - $50.60 and closed at $50.77

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
DGCX Crude (DEC) - Bullish above $51.20 bearish below $50.40


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