safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR VIEW YESTERDAY "sell ard 12160-170 S/L 12180 and T/p 12125/12070" ACHIEVED AS TURN FROM DAYS HIGH=12165. Continue to view, as long Resistance of 12225 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell below 12050 S/L 12090 and T/p 12010-11975/11850/11775/ below down rally sharp OR buy only abv 12230 S/L 12200 and T/p 12270-300/ 12375 where strong Resistance seen again (any time close above 12225-12375/12850/13600/14325 bullish while close below 11450/11290-250 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Continue to view as long Resist of 16450/16830 down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 16200, for the day sell only below 15850 S/L 15930 and T/p 15775-700/close below 15775 test 15400 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 16320-330 S/L 16350 and T/p 16225-150 (any time close below 15775 bearish rally while close above 16850/17750/19000/20550/ 21400/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

Continue to view, as long Resistance 2775, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 2750-2730, for the day sell only below 2590 S/L 2610 and T/p 2570-2550 OR sell ard 1704-8 S/L 2715 and T/p 2675-70 (now crude need to close above 2775/2970/3040/ 3200/3525/3790/4170/4380/4980 for bullish rally while close below 2590 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


Continue to view, as long Resistance of 180, down trend likely to continue. book profit on sell below 182.50/178, for the day sell only below 173.5 S/L 175 and T/p 171-170/towards 165 in coming days OR sell ard 179.8-180.2 S/L 180.5 and T/p 178-5/177.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 190/199/215/234.5/ 248/270/305/316/327/339/351.25/ 360.5/387/398 while close below 173.5 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

gold outlook

Gold held steady for US and Japanese investors early Thursday, and leapt for everyone else, as a fresh spike in the currency value of Dollars and Yen – both used to fund leveraged speculation during 2001-2007 – matched new losses in world equity markets.

"Global assets keep deflating, inflation is falling faster than expected," writes Walter de Wet, head of commodity research at Standard Bank in Johannesburg in his Gold Market note today.

"We've become convinced that we'll see a series of aggressive interest rate cuts, especially in the Eurozone and UK...Standard Bank maintains that the bias for the Dollar is towards strengthening in the next three months, and erratically so."

After the S&P on Wall Street closed Wednesday at a new five-year low, Tokyo's Nikkei ended today nearly 7% lower – more than 1,400 points down for Nov. so far – as the Japanese Yen gained 5% against the Euro in violent trade.

Here in London, the FTSE100 tumbled through the 4,000 mark – a 41-month low first hit in mid-Oct. – while the Pound lost almost three US cents from Wednesday's brief high.

For French, German and Italian investors wanting to Buy Gold today, the price moved up to a 3-week high of €597.

The Gold Price in Sterling jumped back above £500 an ounce.

"Gold [was] one of the few assets remaining that could be sold at a reasonable price to meet margin calls on other, worse-performing assets," explained the World Gold Council (WGC) in its latest quarterly report Wednesday, pointing to the apparent failure of Gold's Safe Haven Role during Sept. and Oct.

The WGC reports a record 121% jump in physical gold investment worldwide during the third-quarter of this year.

Global gold-market supplies, in contrast, fell by 9.7% year-on-year, led by a sharp drop in central bank gold sales.

"The rate of physical Gold Buying has been impressive, and supply remains constrained," agrees the latest Fortis Metals Monthly from Virtual Metals, the London-based consultancy.

On the supply side, "dehedging [by Gold Mining firms] continues to fade and central bank sales are very weak," it says.

"Perhaps when institutional investors, such as hedge funds, have stopped liquidating their holdings, the price will gain. But it needs to do so soon to be convincing."

In the broader raw materials market, meantime, forced sales to cover losses elsewhere have squashed commodity-fund investments by one half, Virtual Metals goes on, since peaking above $200 billion in June.

Today crude oil fell towards $53 per barrel, base metals sold off hard, and "safe haven" government bonds rose yet again, pushing the yield offered by 10-year US Treasury debt down to 3.27%.

Yesterday's US consumer-price data put the headline inflation rate at 3.7% year-on-year. Stripping out "volatile" food & energy prices, core CPI – the Federal Reserve's preferred measure – stood 2.2% higher from 12 months earlier, and precisely in line with core US inflation's average growth over the last 10 years.

Even so, "The largest headline CPI decline in the US in years implies to me that [while] gold is a hedge against inflation, it doesn't look like there is any inflation in the short term to hedge," reckons Bart Melek, commodity strategist at BMO Capital Markets, speaking to Canada's National Post.

Put another way, "There's absolutely no need to Buy Gold as a hedge against inflation," claimed Peter Fertig at Dresdner Kleinwort in Hainburg, Germany to Bloomberg News earlier this week.

Physical gold investors disagree, however, while central banks the world over continue to battle the risk of deflation with record-low interest rates and strong money-supply growth.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) today slashed its lending rate by an unprecedented 1.0% to just 1.0% in an unscheduled move.

"More aggressive easing...should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome," agreed the US Federal Reserve at its most recent policy meeting, minutes released on Wednesday show.

The US monetary base (meaning currency in circulation and bank deposits held at the Federal Reserve) has expanded by more than 70% in the last two months, creating more cash inside nine weeks than existed in total seven years ago.

Growth in the Bank of England's broad "M4" measure of the UK money supply meantime swelled by 15.1% in October – an 18-year record – figures showed this morning.

New private-sector borrowing rose faster still, up by 16.1% year-on-year thanks to a record monthly expansion of £52.8 billion ($79.2bn), even as the supply of credit to households and business dried up.

The vast bulk of new credit creation, according to Bank of England data, is going instead to non-bank financial corporations – in particular brokers, exchanges and clearing houses needing large cash positions to use as a "fire break" in case of a major counter-party default.

All told, these "other financial corporations" accounted for more than 96% of new UK borrowing in Sept.

MCXARUN
9994500540

outlook

Crude oil dived under $50 a barrel to hit the lowest level since May 2005, deepening losses as financial markets reflected ever lower confidence in the world economy and evidence mounted of falling fuel demand. As economic slowdown has destroyed fuel demand, oil companies plan to store millions of barrels of oil in the hope economics will improve. Oil differs from other commodity markets in that producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries can intervene to curb supplies, in theory providing support for prices. Since early September, OPEC has said it will remove around 2 million barrels per day from international markets, but market has taken the view that falling demand is a bigger factor than tightening supply.

Gold alleviated more than 2% as physical gold bullion buying offset a broad-based commodity decline, a strong dollar and further losses in equity markets. Gold came off its initial high as U.S. stocks slid as much as 3% early, prompting liquidation across all asset classes. Strong physical buying of gold such as coins and bars boosted prices, and demand increased with price dips. Global demand for gold jumped 18% year-over-year to 1,133.4 tonnes in the third quarter, as strong buying by investors at a lower gold price reversed a weaker trend earlier this year according to the World Gold Council. Gold however consolidating and trading at $720-$752 technical levels. Gold held up well despite a 5% tumble of crude oil, trading just above $50 per barrel.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits surged by a larger than expected 27,000 for the week to their highest level in 16 years, according to the Labor Department, as a harsh economic environment forces employers to cut back on hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits were a seasonally adjusted 542,000 for the week from a revised 515,000 the previous week. A Labor Department official said there were no special factors influencing the report. However analysts polled by Reuters had forecast 505,000 new claims versus a previously reported count of 516,000 the week before. Moreover New York-based Conference Board states in its monthly forecast of economic activity declined 0.8% in October, worse than the 0.6% decrease expected by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Over the last seven months, the index declined at a 4.7% annual rate, faster than any decline since 2001. Most of the decline was due to the plunge in stock prices, the drop in building permits and the decline in consumer expectations.

The price of copper tumbled as rising stockpiles and recession fears underscored the red metal's weaker demand outlook. Record lows in U.S. housing starts, surging inventory levels in London warehouse stocks, declining global equity markets, strength in the dollar, and uncertainty whether U.S. automakers will win emergency government loans contributing to copper's bearish tone. Fears of a deep global recession heightened after U.S. jobless claims jump to their highest level in 16 years.


MCXARUN
9994500540