safetrade calls

GOLD

book profit on buy abv 12425/12475, for the day buy only abv 12660 S/L 12638 and T/p 12690-700/12740 upto 12800 OR buy ard 12450-455 S/L 12440 and T/p 12490 upto 12550, as long support 12300 & 12350 uptrend likely to continue (any time close above 12650/ 13100/13425 bullish while close below 12300/11725/11460/11150/11000-10925 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

book profit on buy abv 23725/850, for the day buy abv 24450 & more abv 24500 S/L 24360 and T/p 24600-675/ 24750/close above 24500 test 25000-50 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 23840-50 S/L 23800 and T/p 24000/ 24100 (any time close below 23300/ 22750-300/21575-500/20400/19250/ 18775 bearish rally while close above 24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

EIA Crude oil inventory data schedule to release today. book profit on buy abv 5400, for the day buy only abv 5500 S/L 5475 and T/p 5530-50 OR sell below 5375-5350 S/L 5395 and T/p 5310-5290/ sustain below down rally, anytime close below 5120 bearish test 4930-50 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 5500 for bullish rally while close below 5310/5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

book profit on buy abv 346.5-347/351, for the day buy only abv 355.5 S/L 354 and T/p 356.5/358/361-361.5/close above test 372-375 atleast in coming days OR sell below 347 S/L 348 and T/p 345.5-343.5 where good support seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340.5/336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold intraday

Gold Outlook
21 May 2008 11:09:11



Gold prices continued to escalate, and traded above $920 yesterday, supported by weakness in the dollar and oil’s extended rally to new highs.



International spot gold traded in the range $902.40 - $923.40 and last quoted at $918.35 ($903.95).



Traders were cautious ahead of the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's April 29-30 meeting, which is scheduled for release today.



The dollar had edged higher on Monday after the index of leading economic indicators in US showed a rise for the second straight month in April. The index rose 0.1% in April, identical to the gain in March after falling for the five prior months.



But on Friday, a more-than-expected fall in US consumer sentiments had renewed concerns about the economy. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index in May fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April against the expectation for 61.0.



According to the data released by US Labor Department on Thursday, the number of people filing for the first time for unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 371,000 in the week ended May 10. But the four-week average of initial claims fell 1,000 to 365,750.



The continuing claims also recorded an increase, by 28,000 to 3.06 million in the week ended May 3; while the four-week average of continuing claims increased by 15,250 to 3.02 million.



The data from US Labor Department released on Wednesday showed that inflation had moderated in April, with the Consumer Price Index recording a rise of 0.2%.



Mean while, stronger-than-expected GDP data from the euro-zone provided support for the Euro. The European Union's statistical agency Eurostat reported that gross domestic product across the 15-nation euro-zone expanded at a 0.7% quarterly pace in the first three months of the year, gaining 2.2% year-on-year.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a speech last week had said that the US central bank's efforts to provide liquidity to financial markets in an effort to alleviate the credit crunch had helped but that markets remain stressed.



As per data released last week, US retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in April, following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. But it was slightly stronger compared to the expectation for a 0.3% drop.





Crude oil July in NYMEX traded as high as $129.60 a barrel and settled at $128.98 ($127.05).



Oil prices thrived on potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions, expected demand from China and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high oil prices.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $904.00 – $923.40 and closed at $919.70 ($906.50).



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 919.00; bearish below $ 914.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Energy
21 May 2008 10:40:20

Major Headlines:

Oil surged to a fresh all-time high at $129.29 a barrel in New York as fresh supply concerns combined with Opec's reluctance to increase output to push prices upwards.



A 24-hour strike at the French port of Fos-Lavera near Marseille, Europe's second biggest oil hub, is also contributing to fears of market tightness, with reports of five oil tankers unable to enter the harbor



Credit Suisse Tuesday raised its average oil price forecast for 2008 to $120 a barrel from $91 a barrel. The investment bank also upped its average price forecast for 2009 to $110 a barrel, with prices expected to remain above $100 a barrel in the long-term due to the rising cost of production and limited supply growth

Surging diesel demand in China has heightened supply fears, as the world's second largest energy consumer moves to ensure adequate supplies for earthquake relief efforts in Sichuan province and this summer's Olympic games.

Despite record prices, the OPEC has maintained that markets remain well supplied, with the cartel's President Chakib Khelil yesterday indicating the group was unlikely to increase output at it's next meeting in September.

While Saudi Arabia -- the cartel's dominant member -- has boosted oil output by 300,000 barrels per day to meet demand and compensate for other producers’ lower output, and the market appeared to be overlooking this for now as the supply picture remains unclear. Militant action in Opec member Nigeria



Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil rose to a record and the dollar fell against the euro, Returns from investing in commodities, especially energy, have surged this year as investors sought alternatives to stocks. Natural gas has gained 49 percent and oil is 34 percent higher



Egypt plans to raise natural-gas export prices in line with the increase in global energy prices, the nation's oil minister said. Egypt, Africa's second-biggest gas producer behind Algeria, sells the fuel in Spain, France, Italy and the U.K


MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)


Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5513 levels. If market reaches 5513may see prices to take further upside towards 5562 and 5643 however if it holds back below 5383 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5302and5253

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5410 Target 5480 and 5540 Stop loss 5375





MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 495.60 levels. If market breaches 495.60may see prices to take further upside towards 503.80and 515.60 however if it holds back below 475.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 463.80 and 455.60

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 484 Target 487 and 495 Stop loss at 480

MCXARUN
9994500540

basemetals intraday

Base Metals
21 May 2008 10:22:59



Major Economic Data:

The U.S. Labor Department said that the producer price index was up .2% in April and up 6.5% from a year ago, less than expected and down from a 6.9% annual gain in March. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .4% in April and up 3.0% from a year ago.

TheChicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity slipped from -.98 to -1.17 in April. Only 21 of the 85 indicators used registered positive growth.

InCanada, wholesale sales totaled C$42.7 billion in March, up .6% on the month and stronger than expected.

Producer prices inGermany were up 1.1% in April, the biggest monthly jump in over two years. The June euro is trading higher.

Copper


Copper fell for a second day on concern that rising inventories are signaling weakening demand fromChina, the world's biggest metals buyer.

Inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have gained 11 percent this month, raising concern usage has slowed.

Chinese copper imports last month dropped 19 percent from a year earlier, the nation's customs office said last week. Before today, copper had jumped 24 percent in 2008 partly boosted by concerns that supplies may fall short of consumption.

Judy Zhu, commodity analyst at Standard Chartered Plc inShanghai, said copper and aluminium prices will decline this year as tightening credit policy inChina slows demand growth.

China, the world's largest consumer of all industrialmetals, raised deposit reserve requirements for banks to the highest ever, to cool down inflation and economic growth.

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., the nation's largest copper producer, said it will shut its smelter in southernIndia for maintenance work that may last 22 days. The 400,000-ton plant at Tuticorin will close starting May 22.

Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, won't face more protests by contractors' employees over bonus payments, since the workers are getting paid,according to a union spokesman. Workers don't plan any more protests, Claudio Valenzuela, a Santiago-based spokesman for the Confederation of Copper Workers, which organized an earlier strike, said today in a telephone interview.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 347.9 If market breaches below 347.9 may see prices to take further correction towards 344.7 and 341.8 However if it holds back above 353.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 356.8 and 360.0

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 351.50-352.50 Target 346 and 342 SL 354.20

Nickel

MCX Nickel May traded weak following other metals at LME, Nickel registered days low near 1095.5 while slightly covered at closing.

Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -216 MT to 49278 MT

MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1095.0 If market breaches below 1095.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1085.0 and 1074.5; However if it holds back above 1115.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1126.0 and 1136.0

Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1108-1110 Target 1095 and 1080 SL 1122



Zinc

Zinc fell for a second consecutive day in London as analysts forecast production losses from China's earthquake will have a limited effect on this year's output.

MCX Zinc May traded towards the low of 94.45 following other metals while market gave a small recovery while closing.

Production may drop by 60,000 metric tons or 1.5 percent of this year's estimated output because of smelter damage, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said today. China, the world's largest producer of the metal, will produce 4.06 million tons in 2008, according to Antaike.

Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –350 MT to 128225 MT

MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 94.1 If market breaches below 94.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 92.8 and 91.1; However if it holds back above 97.2 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.9 and 100.2

Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 96.20 Target 94.5 and 93 SL 97.40



Lead

Lead fell to the lowest in almost one year on the London Metal Exchange.

The contract for delivery in three months fell as much as $81, or 3.6 percent, to $2,150 a metric ton, the lowest intraday price since May 25, 2007. It traded at $2,155 a ton as of 10:11 a.m. local time.

Lead fell to the lowest in almost a year in London as a 42 percent increase in stockpiles in 2008 suggests supply will move into surplus this quarter, from a deficit previously.

Lead inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange have swollen to 64,450 metric tons, the highest since Sept. 25, 2006. The market is moving into a surplus of 40,000 tons this quarter, from a shortfall in the first three months, according to Gayle Berry, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.

Lead, mainly used in car batteries, has lost 16 percent this year, the most among all LME-traded metals. Declining prices will dent sales at producers including Stockholm-based Boliden AB, whose shares have tumbled 8.3 percent this year.

Purchases in China, the largest user, have slowed this year as buyers wait for the government to release rules in June on use of electric bicycles, Berry said. Such batteries account for about 20 percent of the nation's lead usage, Berry said.



MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:



The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.2 If market breaches below 90.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 88.2 and 85.1; However if it holds back above 95.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.4 and 100.4

Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 93.50 Target 91 and 88.5 SL 94.10



Aluminium

MCX Aluminium May traded weak following Lead and Zinc buy market-bounced towards high before closing. Aluminium registered days low near 124.35 while days high near 127.00, Hevay inventory data at LME also supported down prices of the metal.

LME-monitored aluminum stockpiles expanded 22,175 tons, or 2.1 percent, to 1.06 million tons, the LME said today in a daily report. That is the highest since May 28, 2004. All increase took place in Mobile, Alabama. The U.S. is the world's second-largest aluminum producer after China.

Average daily aluminum production rose to 107,100 metric tons last month, the highest since November, as Chinese output rebounded, according to data from the International Aluminium Institute.

China, the world's biggest smelter of the metal, produced 1.1 million tons, a second straight monthly increase, the London-based group backed by metals producers said today on its Web site. Chinese production dropped in January and February after the country suffered the worst snowstorms in decades.

World output totaled 3.213 million tons last month, after 3.218 million tons in March and 3.092 million tons a year ago. African output dropped to 135,000 tons last month, down 5.6 percent from March, and a 7.5 percent decline from a year ago. South Africa, the continent's biggest metal producer, has had a power shortage this year that reduced output at all smelters.

MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 126.9 levels. If market breaches 126.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 128.3 and 129.5; however if it holds back below 124.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 123.0 and 121.6

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 126.30 Target 125 and 123 SL 127.40

MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion
21 May 2008 10:46:22



Major Headlines:

Gold rose in New York for the fourth straight session as a weaker dollar and higher energy costs boosted the precious metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

The dollar fell after the International Monetary Fund said the U.S. housing slump still poses ``serious risks'' to financial markets and Gold Gained, extending this month's rally, on speculation declines in the dollar and rising commodity prices will spur inflation, reviving demand for the metal as a hedge. Platinum, palladium and silver also gained



According to a report issued by the World Gold Council, preliminary data showed that during the recent Akshaya Thritiya -- a Hindu festival considered an auspicious time to buy gold -- has generated lower sales than in 2007 because of high prices. Gold sales during the May 7-8 Akshaya Trithiya festival were lower by 11 percent at 48.99 tones, as against 55 tones a year earlier.



Gold traded above $920 an ounce and as the crude oil's holding above $128 a barrel boosted energy costs and appeal of bullion as hedge against inflation. Crude oil futures in New York rallied to a record $129.29 a barrel yesterday while gold reached $924.40 an ounce, the highest since April 23. The surge in oil spurred a 3.4 percent gain in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities this month.



Gold demand in the first quarter was 701.3 metric tons, the lowest in 5 years and down 16 percent from a year earlier, the World Gold Council said today. In India, the biggest user, consumption fell 50 percent and the world mine production totaled 593 tons, up slightly from a year ago

April month Gold holdings fell at Swiss National Bank in Zurich by 401.4 ounce from 35,790 ounce (March 2008)



U.S.Economy:

The U.S. Labor Department said that the producer price index was up .2% in April and up 6.5% from a year ago, less than expected and down from a 6.9% annual gain in March. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .4% in April and up 3.0% from a year ago. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.

The Chicago Federal Reserve's index of national activity slipped from -.98 to -1.17 in April. Only 21 of the 85 indicators used registered positive growth

Currencies update:

An index of service in Japan, the tertiary index, was up .3% in March, less than expected. Also, the Bank of Japan met and kept the interest rate unchanged at .50% with concerns about a slowing economy. The June yen is steady to higher.

The June Australian dollar is steady to higher after minutes from the latest meeting at the Reserve Bank of Australia showed consideration of another increase in the interest rate.

Producer prices in Germany were up 1.1% in April, the biggest monthly jump in over two years. The euro was well bid above $1.56 after an early blip, buoyed by comments from the head of a leading research institute in Germany suggested that the European Central Bank will be forced to hike borrowing costs if inflation remains high.

MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12736 levels. If market breaches 12736 may see prices to take further upside towards 12841 and 13033 however if it holds back below 12439 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 12247 and 12142


Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 12550 Target 12635 and 12710 Stoploss at 12505


MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 24546 levels. If market breaches 24546 may see prices to take further upside towards 24832 and 25364 however if it holds back below 23728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 23196 and 22910



Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 24120 Target 24320 and 24650 Stop loss at 23950

MCXARUN
9994500540

mcx bullion charts

click the pics ti view large






MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The long term trend in crude oil is very bullish. I am scared by the pace of the rise of crude oil. Short positions have been converted into long positions in crude. One billionaire fund manager says that crude oil will cross $140 and investors try to take crude oil near it in nearly a day. Tomorrow a fund manager says that crude oil prices will rise to $200 say in June then investors will try to take crude oil to $200 a barrel. The situation in crude oil is similar to gold prices. Momentum is bullish technically but a correction can happen anytime. When will that correction happen? Anywhere between the next one month to six months. It is very difficult to predict a top in momentum markets.

Long term investors should wait for a correction in crude oil prices as the risk to return ratio is not that great.

The European central bank (ECB) may not cut interest rates in 2008 and there is a slight possibility that it may raise interest rates towards the close. Expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in December has been fully factored in by the markets. Even if the Fed raises interest rates in December and the ECB also raises interest rates in the same time then interest rate differentials will remain the same. So the euro will continue to remain firm against the US dollar, but the pace of gains will be very slow. The US dollar has weakened against all the currencies as higher crude oil prices will delay the US economic recovery. In the short term the US dollar will gain against the major currencies if and only if either growth differentials narrow or interest rate differentials narrow. Till then the greenback will trade with a softer bias in the medium term.

Lehman brothers has said that it will cut 1300 jobs globally. Once again firing news has started to come up from the financial services sector including one from Morgan Stanley in the past fortnight. Whether these jobs shift to Indian knowledge processing (KPO’s) firms remains to be seen? If more firing continues by the financial services industry, one should expect US May payrolls to remain in the negative zone and renewed selling pressure on the US dollar.

SILVER -- JULY FUTURE

Silver can target $2125 in the short term as long as $1580 holds and momentum supports it.

MCXARUN
9994500540