LONG VIEW

GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11725-800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 11650(FEB)

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SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 22000 UPTO 22500 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 21600, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 19850-700 DOWN TREND AGAIN(MAR)

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for safe trade follow this

GOLD

For the day buy only abv 11550 S/L 11530 and T/p 11585-600/11670 upto 11775 in days to come OR sell below 11400-380 S/L 11420 and T/p 11340-300/250/175-50 upto 11000 days to come (any time close above 11600/ 11875 bullish while close below 11300/ 10950-900/10500/10050/9850/9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

book profit on sell recm ard 21390-400, for the day buy only abv 21400 & 450 S/L 21330 and T/p 21550-625/abv 21650 test 21800 OR sell below 21150 S/L 21225 and T/p 21075-25/20950 upto 20800 (any time close below 19725/ 19375/19000/18625/18250/18100/ 17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 21650/22000/23150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day sell below 3420 S/L 3440 and T/p 3400-3385 upto 3310 in days to come OR buy only abv 3500-3510 S/L 3485 and T/p 3540-45/3570/3610/3640/ uprally (now crude need to close above 3570/3640/ 3700/3840/3910-35 for bullish while close below 3380/3290-60 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 289 & 290 S/L 288 and T/p 292-93/bullish rally test 298 -300 atleast OR sell only below 283 S/L 284.3 and T/p 282.5-281/280-278/ bearish rally test 272-73 atleast (upside strong rally only on close above 290-93/ 299/314/ 321.5/327/331.5/348 while close below 278/270/265/250/235 bearish for medium term)

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bullion chart

this is MCX Gold day chart
click the chart to enlarge



this is MCX Silver day chart
click the chart to enlarge



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U.S. Energy Futures

Crude Oil:

Front month crude oil is higher in ACCESS trade this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market and the overall strength of the trend is strong, as indicated by the ADX. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, even though prices are trading below the moving average, the moving average slope is up from the previous session. Should prices continue lower the moving average will eventually follow and then the down trend will be more clearly established. However, this strength in the moving average will need to be watched. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a weak bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is rising, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is down. As the ADX is rising this indicates that the current trend is strong and should remain intact. Look for the current trend to continue.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 42.05). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 42.05 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be decreasing, as evidenced by a smaller distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

100.09 - Highest High in last 50-Days
95.07 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
92.99 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
92.71 - Highest High in last 10-Days
92.25 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
92.07 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
90.29 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
90.01 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
89.05 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
88.83 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
88.75 - High
88.72 - Last Price
87.40 - Low
87.01 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
86.75 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
85.42 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
80.04 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average

Natural Gas:

Natural Gas contracts are higher this morning extending the prior sessions gains. Trend indicators are indicating a bullish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result.

TREND INDICATORS:

Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices cross above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.

ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.

MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the difference between the MACD and the MACD signal line may indicate a short term rally over the next few days.

RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 54.57). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 54.57 the market is somewhat overbought. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of weakness from this indicator before getting too bearish here.

VOLATILITY INDICATORS:

Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating overbought prices.

RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:

8.480 - Highest High in last 50-Days
8.368 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
8.179 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
8.130 - Highest High in last 10-Days
8.020 - High
7.998 - Last Price
7.970 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
7.944 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
7.936 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
7.926 - Low
7.800 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
7.620 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
7.611 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
7.580 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
7.480 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
7.187 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
6.914 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days

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Base metals

Major Headline:

· Copper rose in MCX / LME, reversing an earlier drop, on signs that stockpiles of the metal may decline further, limiting supply. Zinc and lead also rose.

· MCX Copper rose almost by 3% on BHP billiton acquisition new and stock news from lme. MCX Copper traded at 288.50 per kg to register days high.

· MCX Zinc followed the red metal and traded as high as Rs. 95.40 pr kg, similarly Lead Feb touched high of Rs. 111.15 per kg.

· MCx Nickel remain bearish and was trading with loss at Rs. 1053 per kg

· Copper also rises as BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining company, raises the stake to acquire Australian Mining Company Rio Tinto

· Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second-largest producer of the metal, said output at its smelter dropped as much as 70 percent of normal production after weather hampered power supplies since Feb. 2. The company produced 554,000 tons last year, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

* Previously copper declined as global stock markets witnessed losses Tuesday, crude oil prices declined and the US dollar firmed against the euro. The prices were also hit by weaker than expected release of U.S. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Index.
* Moreover poor weather conditions along with weeklong Lunar New Year holidays beginning Wednesday in China are keeping off China’s demand. Thus Copper market may once again look at US economic factors, raising chances of slight ease in red metals prices in the near term.


MCX Copper Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Copper Feb: Buy at 285 for the target of 291.30 and 295 with stop loss at 282.50

MCX Zinc Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Zinc Feb: Buy at 94.40 for the target of 95.80 and 96.40 with stop loss at 93.75

MCX Nickel Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Nickel Feb: Sell at 1070-65 for the target of 1040 and 1020 with stop loss at 1095

MCX Lead Feb

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

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Bullion

Major Headline:

· Gold rose in London/Comex/MCX on speculation investors will add to holdings of the metal to take advantage of a 5 percent drop from a record last week. Platinum climbed to an all-time high.

· MCX Gold April traded above Rs. 11540 per 10 gram with net gain of almost 1.20% similarly MCx Silver March rose to a high above 21395 with almost 1% gain.

· International Spot gold traded above $ 908 and Silver traded above $16.64

· Assets in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest fund backed by gold, have held at 631 metric tons this month even as prices peaked at a record $936.92 an ounce on Feb. 1. Gold today snapped its biggest four-day decline in two months.

· The Federal Reserve has reduced its benchmark interest rate twice this year even after U.S. inflation last year rose the most in 17 years. Prices paid by consumers have been rising faster than the 3 percent deposit rates in the U.S., giving savers a negative real rate of return. Costs are also rising from the U.K. to Italy, Singapore and China.

· Some Asian buyers took advantage of gold's lower prices; boosting prices back to around USD892/oz. However, reluctance to maintain long positions over the long Lunar New Year holiday weekend capped buying interest, traders said.

· The market remains heavily long, leaving prices vulnerable to a retreat in the short-term, they said, while overall sentiment remains bullish.

· Very weak US non-manufacturing data following close on last week's poor payrolls numbers may indicate that the US is already in a recession, which will pressure stock markets lower and drag gold with it, said Westpac Bank Chief Currency Strategist Robert Rennie.



Indian Bullion Spot Market

Spot precious metals finished with mild gains tracing the trends in international markets. In international markets gold eyed the USD 900 level on bargain hunting. Gold was buoyed by concerns of yet another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve amidst background of a dampening US economy.

· In Mumbai markets, gold (995) jumped up by Rs 65 to finish at Rs 11,470/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 70 to finish at Rs 11,525/10g. Arrivals in gold were at 100 kilos and traded volumes at 100 kilos. Silver (.999) was down by Rs 10 to close at Rs.21,005/kg.

· Chennai gold (995) decreased by Rs 50 to finish at Rs 11,550/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 150 to close at Rs 11,600/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) declined by Rs 100 to close at Rs 20,500/kg.

· Jaipur gold standard closed steady at Rs.11,600/10gm whereas Silver (.999) rose by Rs 600 at Rs 21,000/kg.

· Ahmedabad gold (995) and gold (.999) rose by Rs 80 to close at Rs 11,480/10gm and Rs 11,530/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) was down by Rs 100 to close at Rs 21,000/kg.

· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) rose by Rs 15 to close at Rs.11,540/10gm and gold (.999) by Rs 25 to Rs 11,600/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) ends Rs.20,600/kg, down by Rs 50.


Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are not looking at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 11460-70 fro the target of 11590 and 11660 with stop loss at 11415



MCX Silver Mar

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are not looking at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Buy at 21280-300 for the target of 21550 and 21750 with stop loss at 21120

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3465 BEARISH BELOW 3451

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11517 BEARISH BELOW 11479

SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 21369 BEARISH BELOW 21285

COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 289.6 BEARISH BELOW 288.8

LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 111.5 BEARISH BELOW 111.1

NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1073 BEARISH BELOW 1068

ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 95.60 BEARISH BELOW 95.20

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energy

Major Headline:

· World oil prices were lower in Asia Wednesday after fresh economic data in the US and Europe stoked concerns about falling demand.

· Prices have eased to around the $86.77 level at NYMEX, with rising stockpiles in America and fears of a global slowdown denting investor sentiment.

· MCX Crude Oil Feb registered a fall almost by 2% following international trend was trading below Rs 3440 per barrel.

· MCX Natural Gas Feb traded against the move and was up by almost 1 % , Market traded near 318.30 level with profit.

· The fall came after a widely watched survey showed the services sector of the US economy contracted for the first time in nearly five years in January.

· The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing activity indicates that recession is at hand in the world's biggest economy.



Weekly Inventory Data:

· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 1, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

· Crude stocks rose by 7.0 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.07 mln barrel rise.

· At 300 mln barrels, US crude oil inventories are in the middle of the average range for this time of year, the EIA said.

· Gasoline stock builds outstripped analysts' expectations, rising by 3.6 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 1.7 mln barrels.

· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, also rose, gaining 100,000 barrels against expectations for a fall of 1.9 mln barrels.

· Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period. Refineries meanwhile operated at 84.3 pct of their capacity, the EIA said, down 0.7 percentage points from 85 pct in the previous week.

· A nine-week fall in crude stocks over December and early January was a key factor in pushing crude stocks to an all-time high of 100.09 usd in the New Year.

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3460-75 for the target of 3410 and 3380 with stop loss at 3495

MCX Natural gas Feb






Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

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outlook

April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 906.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 25%
retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 873.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 916.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at
912.00 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 888.40 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 873.90.

March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.401 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.500 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 17.345 then month resistance crossing at 17.500. First support is today's low crossing at 16.230
then the 25% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 15.895.

March copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.35. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 337.85 is the next upside target. If March renews
Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 311.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at
337.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 337.85. First support is today's low crossing at 317.10. Second support
is last Monday's low crossing at 311.65.

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's breakout below the 10-day moving average crossing at
90.10. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at
85.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 92.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 90.66. First support is today's low crossing at 86.66. Second support is January's low crossing at 85.42.

March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above last week's high crossing at 8.123 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March extends the decline off
January's high, January's low crossing at 7.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.080
then last week's high crossing at 8.123. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.580. Second support is January's low
crossing at 7.534.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates even before the next meeting in March along with short covering and subsequent position rebuilding resulted in gold and silver rising sharply. Power outages in South African gold mines are also supporting gold from falling. Base metals are finding buyers at lower levels on expectations that demand will start to rise once Chinese factories swing into full production after the New Year Celebrations are over. Copper and Lead will be more volatile, zinc at lower levels risk to return ratio is in favor of the buyer while Nickel should break out from the current range trade.

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage today while the European Central bank may change to a softer tone on interest rates. Gold and silver will be volatile and were unnerved by gains in the US dollar and declines in crude oil. Technically they are neutral to bullish. Friday’s close will set the tone for the rest of the month for gold and silver. A lower close on Friday will

suggest more losses next week.

SILVER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1676.0

Silver will consolidate in a wider $1630-$1680 range. A consolidated break of $1680 will result in $1696 and $1712.

COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $339.0

Back to square one for copper. If copper holds $316 this week then it should break $339 by next week.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $85.20

Crude oil has to hold $85 or break $90 for direction.

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