safe trade calls

GOLD

we book profit on sell below 12250, for the day sell below 12190 & 12150 S/L 12220 and T/p 12075-50/towards 11975 OR buy abv 12375 S/L 12350 and T/p 12400-430/upto 12500 (any time close above 12630/12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/ 11375/11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

we book profit on sell below 23475, for the day sell below 23300-23275 S/L 23380 and T/p 23125/23000/22875/ down rally OR buy only abv 23725 S/L 23660 and T/p 23800/900-950/towards 24150 (any time close below 23275/ 23000-22875/22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24925/25500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR GIVEN SUPPORT LEVEL OF 5635. we book profit on sell below 5800, for the day sell below 5665 S/L 5685 and T/p 5630-40/close below 5630 test 5500 atleast/towards 5450 in coming days OR sell ard 5850-55 S/L 5860 and T/p 5815-5785, only sustain abv 5890/5950 & 6000 bullish rally again (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/ 5215/5100/4415/3890 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

we book profit on sell below 356-355.5, for the day sell only below 352.5-352 S/L 353.5 and T/p 349.5/346.5/upto 344 OR buy abv 360.5-361.5 S/L 359 and T/p 363/365/368-70/towards 375 (upside strong rally only on close above 364.5 while close below 342-339/330-326.5/ 310 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

CRUDE OIL NYMEX
LIKELY TO TEST $ 127.5 - 28 TOWARDS $ 123.5 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 131.3, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 138.75 & $ 140.5 TEST 144-45 ATLEAST TOWARDS $ 148 IN COMING DAYS


LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 71 - 70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 75.4, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 89.5 & 100.5 UPTREND AGAIN(JUNE)


ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 78 -75 UPTO 72 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 79.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 86.5/91.5 & 94 UPTREND AGAIN


MCXARUN
9994500540

lead intraday

Lead registered weekly low
26 June 2008 10:03:09

MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00

Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.

MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90


MCXARUN
9994500540

lead intraday

Lead registered weekly low
26 June 2008 10:03:09

MCX Lead dropped to a low of 77.85 and closed at 76.30 with net loss of 2.03% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 78.00

Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1925 MT to 98675 MT.

MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 75.7 levels. If broken can see further fall to 75.1 and 74.0, If market holds above 76.9 further rally can be seen towards 77.5 and 78.6

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 77 Target 75.3 and 74 SL 77.90


MCXARUN
9994500540

zinc intraday

Zinc drops following other metals
26 June 2008 10:02:05



MCX Zinc dropped to a low of 79.65 and closed at 79.85 with net loss of 1.19% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 81.20

Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by 375 MT to 149650 MT.

MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 79.3 levels. If broken can see further fall to 78.7 and 77.7 , If market holds above 80.2 further rally can be seen towards 80.8 and 81.8


Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 80.20-80.50 Target 79 and 78.4 SL 81.30


MCXARUN
999450050

nickel intraday

Nickel remains weak
26 June 2008 10:01:05

MCX Nickel dropped to a rose to high of 935 trading in tight range for the day, low registered near 924 and closed at 932 with net gain of Rs. 7.5 per Kg.

Nickel inventories at LME, decreased by 78 MT to 46218 MT.

MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 926 levels. If broken can see further fall to 919 and 915 , If market holds above 930 further rally can be seen towards 937 and 941


Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 935-940 Target 920 and 915 SL 947.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Copper futures finished slightly softer
26 June 2008 10:00:24

Copper futures finished slightly softer Wednesday largely in reaction to weakness in other commodities and perhaps due to a small technical pullback.

The most-active September copper contract fell 1.35 cents to settle at $3.7730 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Around the time the copper pit closed, August crude oil was down $4.08 to $132.92 a barrel. After starting the day softer, the dollar index was up 0.54 point to 73.295. August gold was down $10.30 to $881.30 an ounce.

Other metals and commodities have come off, the silver and gold are both down, and the energy complex is down as well. Copper is just pulling back in sympathy with that.

The copper market was modestly higher early in the day, with some traders citing tightness as indicated by spreads between cash and three-month prices on the London Metal Exchange. But overall, activity was described as muted ahead of the outcome of a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Around mid-morning, however, crude oil turned south after the first weekly build was reported in U.S. inventories since early May. Inventories rose by 800,000 barrels when the consensus forecast had been for a 900,000 decline. As oil prices fell, copper and other metals followed.

Gross commented that the U.S. economic data wasn't particularly helpful for copper even though it was slightly above forecasts. May durable-goods orders were unchanged when the consensus forecast had been for a 0.5% decline, and they were 0.9% lower when excluding transportation orders. Also, May new-home sales fell 2.5% to an annual rate of 512,000, when a 3% loss was forecast.

Copper does have some supportive features, including the recent technical posture plus historically low inventories in both Comex and LME warehouses. And the dollar - while it rebounded from its lows Wednesday - overall remains soft.

Inventories of copper stored in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell 525 metric tons Wednesday, leaving them at 122,625. The most recent Comex inventory data, released late Tuesday afternoon, were steady at 11,040 short tons.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 352.32 levels. If broken can see further fall to 348.83 and 345.17, If market holds above 355.98 further rally can be seen towards 359.47 and 363.13

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 357.50-358 Target 354 and 352 SL 359.70

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel
26 June 2008 10:05:33

Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel Wednesday after a government agency reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and flagging petroleum demand.

U.S. gasoline purchases fell a ninth straight week as record prices crimped demand, a MasterCard Inc. report showed yesterday. Fuel consumption averaged 20.4 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended June 13, down 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said last week. Commerce Department report showed that U.S. orders for durable goods remained unchanged in May as company’s trimmed investment plans, signaling the economy may keep slowing.

Worries over oil supply stability reemerged Wednesday after Saudi Arabia foiled a large-scale attack on oil fields in Yanbu on the Red Sea and in the Eastern Province involving militant groups in Iraq. Saudi security forces have so far detained 701 suspects, news services reported.

The United Arab Emirates would only increase oil production as part of a decision agreed by all of OPEC, Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said on Wednesday, dashing faint hopes it might follow recent Saudi boosts, The UAE is a member of OPEC, so any production decision should be made in an OPEC meeting," he told reporters on the sidelines of an oil and gas conference in the South Korean capital. OPEC is next scheduled to meet on Sept. 9.

Royal Dutch Shell resumed production at its 200,000 barrel per day oil facility in Nigeria after being attacked by militants last week.

Oil prices will fall to $70 a barrel by 2015 and then rise to $113 a barrel by 2030 as new production begins in countries such as Azerbaijan, Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan, the U.S. Energy Department said, Prices have risen 98 percent in the past year, reaching a record $139.89 on June 16, partly on concern that world oil production will fail to keep pace with surging demand in countries such as China and India.

Forecasts of moderate temperatures in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest were also sending natural gas prices lower driven downward by profit-taking and revised weather forecasts that didn't portend significant cooling demand in the major gas-consuming regions over the next two weeks.

The National Weather Service was forecasting below-normal temperatures for much of the Northeast and Great Lakes region from June 29 to July 7. Still, the milder weather is unlikely to make a significant dent in the year-over-year storage deficit


MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5610 level. if broken can see further fall to 5540 and 5385 If market holds above 5765 further rally can be seen towards 5825 and 5900


Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Sell at 5755 Target 5640 and 5590 Stoploss 5805


MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 543 if broken can see further fall to 535 and 526 If market holds above 552 further rally can be seen towards 560 and 569

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Sell at 557 Target 552 and 545 Stop loss at 561


MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Gold Decline on U.S. Inflation outlook
26 June 2008 10:04:30

Gold Decline on U.S. Inflation outlook and as a decline in energy costs reduced demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Crude-oil futures declined for the first time in four sessions after jumping to a record last week and doubling in the past year.

India spot gold closed marginally lower on Wednesday on weak global cues, a stronger rupee and lack of buying support.

Gold, which is often used as a hedge against inflation, may be pressured if the market boosts expectations that the Fed intends to contain inflation by lifting interest rates later this year, which would boost the dollar.

A firmer U.S. currency pressures the price of dollar-denominated assets, such as crude oil and gold, as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar remained steady against major counterparts Wednesday, after a report showed orders for durable goods were unchanged in May, beating expectations for another decline.

Strong demand for platinum and palladium in the auto industry likely will help shrink supply surpluses for the metals this year, sending prices even higher, Platinum prices climbed to an all-time high of more than $2,300 in March, and palladium prices climbed to a multi-year high of $600 during the first quarter of this year, according to CPM Group's 2008 Platinum Group Metals Yearbook.

Gold held in London-listed exchange-traded funds managed by ETF Securities Ltd. rose to a record. Gold held by the Jersey, Channel Islands-based Company advanced 1 percent to 1.263 million ounces.

Turkey gold imports normalized in May, as the gold price receded, the lira recovered and demand - both domestic and export – picked up, according to the World Gold Council Wednesday. Gold imports skyrocketed almost 20-fold to 19.4 metric tons in May, from 1.03 tons in April and 675 kilograms in March, Istanbul Gold Exchange said this week.

U.S.Economy:

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting this afternoon and is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. Traders will be watching the comments for signs of future bias in monetary policy.

The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 512,000 units in May, down 2.5% from April's pace and as expected. So far in 2008, new home sales are down 37% from a year ago. September lumber is steady.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were unchanged in May, as expected. Excluding transportation, orders were down .9%, also as expected.

Currencies update:

Eurostat said yesterday that industrial new orders in the Euro area 15 were up 2.5% in April and up 11.8% from a year ago. Based on comments to the European Union, analysts are saying that it is almost certain that European Central Bank President Trichet will increase the interest rate on July 3rd when it next meets.

The Reserve Bank of India increased its interest rate from 8.00% to 8.50% in an effort to restrain inflation. Consumer prices were up 11% from a year ago in the latest report, the biggest annual gain in 13 years.


MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:


The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 12132 levels. if broken can see further fall to 12034 and 11918 If market holds above 12278 further rally can be seen towards 12346 and 12462


Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12340 Target 12240 and 12130 Stoploss at 12380

MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 23271 levels. if broken can see further fall to 23131 and 22913 If market holds above 23499 further rally can be seen towards 23629 and 23847

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: sell at 23620 Target 23470 and 23230 stoploss at 23755


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Interest rate differentials will result in a weaker US dollar in the short term after the Fed meeting yesterday. “Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. The Fed has adopted the middle of the road approach. If the US economy falters before the August meeting, then the Fed may not interest rates. On the other hand if the US economy shows strength before the next Fed meeting, they could start to speak on aggressive interest rate hikes. The European central bank chief said that “Upside risks to price stability over the medium term have intensified further over the past few months, in a context of very vigorous money and credit growth”. The ECB will raise rates in July and will focus on inflation in the third quarter. This should give the euro an edge against the US dollar in the third quarter. But whether the euro will edge past 1.60 against the US dollar, I have my doubts.

The fed meeting is over and traders and investors will start preparing for the third quarter and US Independence Day on 4th July. Base metals traders will be preparing for the expected increase in Chinese demand before the Olympics. Aluminium has scope for more gains. It will be volatile over the coming weeks. Fundamentals in Aluminium point to a sustained rise in prices in the medium term to long term. Nickel, for the traders, it is a case of once bitten twice shy as it fails to rise. The best way to trade in the third quarter is to ignore the news and trade in the technicals.

If the US dollar falls then all metals and energies will gain. Technically gold and silver are in a short term neutral zone and a medium term bullish zone. Gold is bullish over $859 and $844 in the medium term. Silver is bullish over $1600 in the medium term. If gold and silver fall/close below these levels then there will be a technical break down which can result in a 5% to 10% slide. This is the technical picture. Till the 4th July gold and silver will be torn between short term and medium term technicals. Trading strategy is to remain on the sidelines and buy on sharp dips but keep on booking partial profits.

PLATINUM OCTOBER -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $2055.0

A mild slowdown in demand has resulted in buyers shying away. This can result in a fall to $2032 & $2004.

MCX CARBON CREDIT --NOVEMBER (price in Indian Rupees)

Failure of MCX Carbon credit to break 1444 will result in a fall to 1390 and 1360 in the short term

MCXARUN
9994500540