energy intraday

Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel
26 June 2008 10:05:33

Oil futures sank more than $5 a barrel Wednesday after a government agency reported an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and flagging petroleum demand.

U.S. gasoline purchases fell a ninth straight week as record prices crimped demand, a MasterCard Inc. report showed yesterday. Fuel consumption averaged 20.4 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended June 13, down 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said last week. Commerce Department report showed that U.S. orders for durable goods remained unchanged in May as company’s trimmed investment plans, signaling the economy may keep slowing.

Worries over oil supply stability reemerged Wednesday after Saudi Arabia foiled a large-scale attack on oil fields in Yanbu on the Red Sea and in the Eastern Province involving militant groups in Iraq. Saudi security forces have so far detained 701 suspects, news services reported.

The United Arab Emirates would only increase oil production as part of a decision agreed by all of OPEC, Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said on Wednesday, dashing faint hopes it might follow recent Saudi boosts, The UAE is a member of OPEC, so any production decision should be made in an OPEC meeting," he told reporters on the sidelines of an oil and gas conference in the South Korean capital. OPEC is next scheduled to meet on Sept. 9.

Royal Dutch Shell resumed production at its 200,000 barrel per day oil facility in Nigeria after being attacked by militants last week.

Oil prices will fall to $70 a barrel by 2015 and then rise to $113 a barrel by 2030 as new production begins in countries such as Azerbaijan, Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan, the U.S. Energy Department said, Prices have risen 98 percent in the past year, reaching a record $139.89 on June 16, partly on concern that world oil production will fail to keep pace with surging demand in countries such as China and India.

Forecasts of moderate temperatures in the U.S. Northeast and Midwest were also sending natural gas prices lower driven downward by profit-taking and revised weather forecasts that didn't portend significant cooling demand in the major gas-consuming regions over the next two weeks.

The National Weather Service was forecasting below-normal temperatures for much of the Northeast and Great Lakes region from June 29 to July 7. Still, the milder weather is unlikely to make a significant dent in the year-over-year storage deficit


MCX Crude Oil July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 5610 level. if broken can see further fall to 5540 and 5385 If market holds above 5765 further rally can be seen towards 5825 and 5900


Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil July: Sell at 5755 Target 5640 and 5590 Stoploss 5805


MCX Natural gas July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 543 if broken can see further fall to 535 and 526 If market holds above 552 further rally can be seen towards 560 and 569

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas July: Sell at 557 Target 552 and 545 Stop loss at 561


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