Major US Data:
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace. May lumber is steady.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
LME Inventory update (18 March, 2008)
alum 5000
coppe -925
nicke 420
lead 75
zinc -625
Major Headline:
· Copper output in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, rose 22 percent in December, the
Bank of Zambia said, without giving a reason for the increase.
· Output totaled 49,257 metric tons in the month, compared with 40,076 tons a year earlier, the Lusaka-based central bank said in a report today. Exports climbed to 49,745 tons, from 42,428 tons previously, it said.
· Cobalt production rose to 396 tons in December, from 234 tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 356 tons, from 274 tons, it said.
· BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said ``excessive and continuous'' rain in
South Africa is causing blockages to coal supply from its mines.
· BHP is ``seeking to minimize the impact'' on power utility Eskom Holdings Ltd. and export customers, spokeswoman Bronwyn Wilkinson said in an e-mailed statement today.
· Nickel rebounded from the biggest drop in more than three years in London on speculation demand
will expand as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to bolster the U.S. economy. Tin rose to a record and copper also gained.
· Economic growth in emerging markets including China has underpinned demand for commodities, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Daniel Hynes said. The Fed will probably cut its benchmark rate
by at least 1 percentage point today to boost confidence in financial markets and revive the world's biggest economy, interest-rate futures show.
· Eskom Holdings Ltd., South Africa's state-owned electricity utility, said power cuts across the
country increased to as much as 3,000 megawatts as it struggles to get wet coal into its plants.
· U.S. copper futures traded tentatively higher early Tuesday, with stabilizing equity markets providing some relief to investors still trying to regain their confidence following Monday's sharp sell-off.
MCX Copper April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Copper April: Sell at 336 Target 328 and 324 Stop loss 338.50
MCX Zinc March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Zinc March: Sell at 103 Target 98.60 and 96 Stop loss at 104.20
MCX Nickel March (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Nickel March: Sell at 1245 Target 1220 and 1205 Stop loss at 1267
MCX Lead Feb (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:MCX Lead March: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 114 Stop loss 120.20
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Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Comex gold tecnical
Gold prices retreated on profit booking yesterday, as the Dollar rebounded from record-low levels versus the Euro after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25 percent.
The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
International spot gold traded in the range $1012.30 - $977.80 and last quoted at $981.50 ($1002.30).
Flurry of gloomy economic data from the US continued, as the Commerce Department on Tuesday reported a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce on Monday.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move on Sunday night cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Labor Department said on Friday the consumer price index was flat in February against the expectations of a 0.2 % increase.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
The Federal Reserve had announced new steps to boost liquidity in the banking system.
The Fed said it would increase the size of its emergency auctions by $40 billion, which means providing $100 billion to primary dealers in US Treasury debt. It also would start a series of term repurchase transactions with the primary dealers that trade securities directly with the Fed, expected to be worth a total of $100 billion.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $1012.30 – $997.80 and closed at $988.10 ($1006.70).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 996; bearish below $ 991
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The latest rate cut has been the sixth since last September, and has made the reduction in the federal funds rate to 300 basis points, to the lowest point since late 2004. But many market participants and analysts had anticipated an even more severe cut by the Fed, a full 100 basis points, amid serious concerns regarding a recession in US economy.
International spot gold traded in the range $1012.30 - $977.80 and last quoted at $981.50 ($1002.30).
Flurry of gloomy economic data from the US continued, as the Commerce Department on Tuesday reported a drop in US housing starts in February by 0.6 percent to a 1.065 million unit annual rate, down from 1.071 million units in January.
The economic worries and a nose-diving dollar had propelled spot gold to record an all-time high of $1030.80 a Troy ounce on Monday.
In the meantime US Labor Department’s Producer Price Index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, rose 0.3 percent in February following a 1.0 increase in January.
The Federal Reserve in a an unexpected move on Sunday night cut its discount rate for direct loans to banks by 0.25 percent point to 3.25 percent, and launched a new discount window facility for primary dealers, in desperate moves to stabilize financial markets.
The emergency moves by Fed boosted speculations regarding the possibilities for more casualties in the widening US financial crisis.
Adding to the pressure on the greenback, data from the US showed total industrial output fell 0.5 percent in February, much steeper than the expected rate of 0.1 percent.
Another release showed US homebuilders' confidence held steady in March. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index for March remained unchanged at 20.
The University of Michigan/Reuters index tracking consumer sentiment had dipped to 70.5 in March from 70.8 in February.
The US Labor Department said on Friday the consumer price index was flat in February against the expectations of a 0.2 % increase.
The US Commerce department reported a worse-than-expected 0.6 percent fall in the Retail Sales in February.
Another release by the US Labor Department showed the initial claims for state unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 353,000 in the week ended March 8. The four-week average of initial claims fell slightly in the latest week, down by 1,250 to 358,500.
The Federal Reserve had announced new steps to boost liquidity in the banking system.
The Fed said it would increase the size of its emergency auctions by $40 billion, which means providing $100 billion to primary dealers in US Treasury debt. It also would start a series of term repurchase transactions with the primary dealers that trade securities directly with the Fed, expected to be worth a total of $100 billion.
Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the US trade deficit widened slightly in January, up 0.6% to $58.2 billion.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $1012.30 – $997.80 and closed at $988.10 ($1006.70).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (April) - Bullish above $ 996; bearish below $ 991
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Energy intraday
Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Expectations:
· U.S. crude-oil inventories in the week ended March 14 probably rose 2.3 million barrels, according to the median of eight responses in a Bloomberg News survey. It would be the ninth increase in 10 weeks.
· Gasoline inventories probably fell 400,000 barrels from 236 million barrels the week before, according to the median of responses.
Major Headline:
· Crude oil rose in New York on speculation a likely U.S. interest rate cut today will drive the dollar down further, prompting investors to buy commodities.
· Oil retraced some of yesterday's 4.1 percent drop as the dollar fell for the fifth day against the euro. Traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by as much as 1 percentage point today.
· The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries shouldn't intervene to dampen prices,Qatar's Oil Minister said.
· Exxon Mobil Corp.'s freeze on $12 billion of assets belonging toVenezuela's state oil company was overturned by aU.K. court in a setback for theU.S. energy company in its dispute with President Hugo Chavez.
· Natural gas advanced, led by forecasts for colder weather in much of theU.S. for the next two weeks, and a rebound in crude oil.
· Below-normal temperatures will sweep into theMidwest and Northeast, the regions of highest gas consumption, by March 20 and intensify in the following week, MDA Federal Inc.'s EarthSat Energy Weather said. Oil gained, lifting gas, on speculation an interest rate cut expected today will weaken the dollar, encouraging investors to buy commodities.
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4235 Target 4290 and 4315 Stop loss 4185
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas April:
come through SMS
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
Major Headline:
· Gold and silver gave up the gains that it had made up over the past couple of days following the fed interest rate decision.
· Fed funds futures was slashed only by .75BP instead of the 1% that was widely expected.
· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust surged 1.6 percent yesterday to a record 663.8 metric tons.
· Holdings in StreetTracks, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, now ranks eighth compared to central banks.
· TheU.S. holds the most gold, with 8,133.5 metric tons in its reserves, according to data from the producer-funded World Gold Council.
· World gold-mine production declined 1.4 percent last year to 2,444 metric tons, an 11-year low, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd.
US Economy:
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 1.065 million units in February, down .6% from January's pace and down 28.4% from a year ago. Building permits in February were down 7.8% from January's pace.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that producer prices were up .3% in February and up 6.4% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy costs, prices were up .5% in February and up 2.4% from a year ago.
· Both Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers showed earnings in the first quarter of 2008 down from a year ago, but better than expected - fairly impressive in light of yesterday's meltdown of Bear Stearns.
Currency Update:
· Statistics Canada said that consumer prices were up 1.8% in February from a year ago, down from a 2.2% gain in January. The core measure of inflation was up 1.5% from a year ago. The June Canadian dollar is trading higher.
· The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices were up 2.5% in February from a year ago, up from a 2.2% gain in January. February's increase was said to be due to a new way of calculating the index. There was no actual increase in prices. The June British pound is trading higher.
· China raised the reserve requirement for its banks from 15.0% to 15.5% as part of an ongoing effort to slow inflation.
MCX Gold Apr (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy above 13065 Target 13230 and 13260 Stop loss at 13015
MCX Silver May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy above 26000 Target 26550 and 26850 Stop loss 25915
MCXARUN
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Statement: 233443 - hichoice
t: 233443 Name: hichoice Currency: USD 2008 March 19, 06:48
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2109507 2008.03.04 10:08 balance Deposit 10 000.00
2147243 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 simay8 20.400 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 365.002147245 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 gold 987.00 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -380.00
2147246 2008.03.13 10:08 sell 1.00 ngapr8 10.050 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
2166804 2008.03.18 12:34 buy 0.00 ngapr8 9.230 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172029 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 simay8 19.927 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172030 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172031 2008.03.19 06:47 sell 1.00 gold 990.25 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -55.00
2172032 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 6 030.00
Closed P/L: 6 030.00
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 6 030.00 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 16 030.00 Equity: 16 030.00 Free Margin: 16 030.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
2109507 2008.03.04 10:08 balance Deposit 10 000.00
2147243 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 simay8 20.400 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 365.002147245 2008.03.13 10:07 sell 1.00 gold 987.00 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -380.00
2147246 2008.03.13 10:08 sell 1.00 ngapr8 10.050 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 100.00
2166804 2008.03.18 12:34 buy 0.00 ngapr8 9.230 0.000 0.000 2008.03.18 12:34 9.230 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172029 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 simay8 19.927 0.000 0.000 2008.03.19 06:47 19.927 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172030 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2172031 2008.03.19 06:47 sell 1.00 gold 990.25 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 -55.00
2172032 2008.03.19 06:47 buy 0.00 gold 990.80 0.00 0.00 2008.03.19 06:47 990.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 6 030.00
Closed P/L: 6 030.00
Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 10 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 6 030.00 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 16 030.00 Equity: 16 030.00 Free Margin: 16 030.00
MCXARUN
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OUTLOOK
April gold closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally and is trading below psychological resistance
crossing at 1000.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends
this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 972.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1033.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 986.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
972.00.
May silver closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.128 hinting that a double top with the
March 6th high might have been posted with Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 22.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Monday's high crossing at 21.440 then monthly resistance crossing at 22.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.800
then the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514.
May copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but remains
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.61. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.60. Second resistance is last Friday's high
crossing at 390.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 365.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at
358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.40 as it consolidated some of
Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. However, stochastics and
the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 103.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this
winter's rally, upside targets will be hard to project although, this winter's trading range projects a possible rally to the 113.20
area. First resistance is today's high crossing at 107.19. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 110.35. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.87.
April Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at
8.662 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.785. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9.064. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.662.
MCXARUN
9994500540
crossing at 1000.00. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If April extends
this winter's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average
crossing at 972.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1033.90.
First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 986.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
972.00.
May silver closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.128 hinting that a double top with the
March 6th high might have been posted with Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or
is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 22.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is
Monday's high crossing at 21.440 then monthly resistance crossing at 22.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.800
then the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.514.
May copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but remains
below the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.61. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If
May extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 358.50 is the next
downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 382.60. Second resistance is last Friday's high
crossing at 390.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 365.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at
358.50.
May crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 106.40 as it consolidated some of
Monday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. However, stochastics and
the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the
20-day moving average crossing at 103.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this
winter's rally, upside targets will be hard to project although, this winter's trading range projects a possible rally to the 113.20
area. First resistance is today's high crossing at 107.19. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 110.35. First support is
the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 98.87.
April Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline but
remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening
on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish following Monday's sharp decline signaling that sideways to lower
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at
8.662 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.496 then the 10-day moving
average crossing at 9.785. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9.064. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this
year's rally crossing at 8.662.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold, silver and copper fell after the Fed cut interest rates by 0.75% as the US dollar gained. In March, the US dollar has fallen too swiftly which contributed to gold and silver’s rise, so the fall was imminent. Gold had further gotten a boost from safe haven demand in the wake of negative sentiment for global stock markets. The Fed funds rate is at 2.25% and the Fed may cut interest rates by another 0.50% by next month end or even before then if the US economy deteriorates by then. After April, the Fed may not cut interest rates for the rest of the year, while other central banks may cut interest rates which will give the US dollar added advantage. Currency traders should buy some far dated US dollar call options on any weakness while precious metal traders should buy some near dated put options as a hedge against any price fall. Crude oil, I am not a bull and expect it to top out soon.
Trading volumes will fall from today as Easter starts. However it’s still not a time to sleep for the day traders or jobbers. Bid – Ask Spreads in MCX as well as Comex are on the higher side which is giving nightmares to the jobbers as his stop losses get triggered very quickly. As long as volatility remains high, bid-ask spreads as bound to remain high.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold can near $930 in the short term and yet maintain the bullish trend. Short Term resistance between $1020 and $1032.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Trading volumes will fall from today as Easter starts. However it’s still not a time to sleep for the day traders or jobbers. Bid – Ask Spreads in MCX as well as Comex are on the higher side which is giving nightmares to the jobbers as his stop losses get triggered very quickly. As long as volatility remains high, bid-ask spreads as bound to remain high.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE
Gold can near $930 in the short term and yet maintain the bullish trend. Short Term resistance between $1020 and $1032.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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