Energy
Oil prices continued their gains despite a weekly survey by theU.S. government showing that the country's crude stocks rose by 5.7 million barrels to 325.6 million barrels for the week ended May
Prices have also been buoyed by ongoing violence in Nigeria, Africa's largest producer, Attacks have cut Nigeria's oil production by about a quarter over the past two years. Angst over oil prices has also been stirred by continuing diplomatic tension over Iran's nuclear ambitions, which Tehran says are peaceful. Iran is OPEC's second-largest producer
Iran's oil minister has predicted the price of oil will rise to $200 a barrel in the near future, the official IRNA news agency reports
Booming demand from developing nations like China and India has raised fears global oil production may be unable to keep up, leading to a potential shortfall of supplies. “If China and India were to increase their consumption per person to current U.S. levels, these two countries alone would require 160 million barrels per day, more than twice the world's supply of oil today
OPEC, the producer of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, said turmoil in equity markets and a weaker dollar have encouraged investors to buy crude oil, driving prices to a record.
`There is clearly no shortage of oil in the market,'Abdalla el-Badri, the secretary general of the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, The turmoil in some global equity markets and the considerable depreciation in the U.S. dollar have encouraged investors to seek better returns in commodities.
OPEC pumped 32.1 million barrels of crude a day in April, according to Bloomberg estimates, and kept its production targets unchanged at its last three meetings on March 5, Feb. 1 and Dec. 5.Its next scheduled policy-setting conference is on Sept. 9.
OPEC said by keeping output steady after the end of the winter season in the northern hemisphere, it allowed crude oil inventories in the U.S. to rise, adding 6 million barrels last week.
At the same time, crude oil movements indicate that some member countries are unable to find buyers for their additional supply, OPEC said.
Natural gas futures remained flat Thursday after U.S.government data showed a build inU.S. gas inventories in line with market forecasts.
Natural gas futures have risen all week, tracking record-breaking increases in crude oil prices amid a lack of significant weather-related news. Crude oil futures were down slightly early Thursday, but still hovering near record highs, with the market taking a breather after four days of big gains.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5171 levels. If market breaches 5171 may see prices to take further upside towards 5216 and 5267 however if it holds back below 5075 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5024and 4979
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 5065 Target 5130 and 5195 Stop loss 5015
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 475.50 levels. If market breaches475.50 may see prices to take further upside towards 479.10 and 483.20however if it holds back below 467.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 463.70 and 460.10
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 467 Target 472and 480 Stop loss at 463
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, May 9, 2008
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook
Oil’s rally to new highs and moderate weakness in the dollar pushed up gold prices yesterday to above $880 levels.
International spot gold traded in the range $863.25 - $885.25 and last quoted at $882.30 ($867.15).
The Euro strengthened against the dollar after the European Central Bank announced the decision to keep its interest rate unchanged in a policy meeting yesterday. The ECB decided against a rate cut giving due consideration to the high inflation, which is currently above the target rate.
Weak retail sales data from the Euro zone released on Wednesday had affected the European currency movement in the previous day. The Eurostat release had shown Euro zone retail sales fell 0.4 percent in March from February, down 1.6 percent year-on-year.
In a slightly positive signal from the Labor sector, the initial jobless claims in US fell by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 3, according to the release by US Labor Department.
The Labor Department had reported on Wednesday that the productivity of the US non-farm business sector rose at a 2.2% annual rate during the first months of the year.
Unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector also underpin the dollar. According to the data released on Monday, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.
But a report from National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales in the US fell 1.0% in March, an indication of continuing weakness in the housing market.
The Fed last week had cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent and signaled that its next move would depend on developments in financial markets and the economy. The Feds signal boosted the optimism of the traders in the currency market. Since mid-September, the US central bank has slashed the fed funds rate target by 3.25 percentage points to shore up an economy.
Oil prices extended the bullish rally and crossed above $124 a barrel yesterday, for the first time ever, on global supply concerns.
But the weekly update from the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies rose 5.7 million barrels to 325.6 million for the week ended May 2.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $124.61 and closed at $124.41 ($123.53).
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $867.00 – $886.80 and closed at $883.80 ($870.80).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 883; bearish below $ 878
MCXARUN
9994500540
Oil’s rally to new highs and moderate weakness in the dollar pushed up gold prices yesterday to above $880 levels.
International spot gold traded in the range $863.25 - $885.25 and last quoted at $882.30 ($867.15).
The Euro strengthened against the dollar after the European Central Bank announced the decision to keep its interest rate unchanged in a policy meeting yesterday. The ECB decided against a rate cut giving due consideration to the high inflation, which is currently above the target rate.
Weak retail sales data from the Euro zone released on Wednesday had affected the European currency movement in the previous day. The Eurostat release had shown Euro zone retail sales fell 0.4 percent in March from February, down 1.6 percent year-on-year.
In a slightly positive signal from the Labor sector, the initial jobless claims in US fell by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 3, according to the release by US Labor Department.
The Labor Department had reported on Wednesday that the productivity of the US non-farm business sector rose at a 2.2% annual rate during the first months of the year.
Unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector also underpin the dollar. According to the data released on Monday, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.
But a report from National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales in the US fell 1.0% in March, an indication of continuing weakness in the housing market.
The Fed last week had cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent and signaled that its next move would depend on developments in financial markets and the economy. The Feds signal boosted the optimism of the traders in the currency market. Since mid-September, the US central bank has slashed the fed funds rate target by 3.25 percentage points to shore up an economy.
Oil prices extended the bullish rally and crossed above $124 a barrel yesterday, for the first time ever, on global supply concerns.
But the weekly update from the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies rose 5.7 million barrels to 325.6 million for the week ended May 2.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $124.61 and closed at $124.41 ($123.53).
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $867.00 – $886.80 and closed at $883.80 ($870.80).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 883; bearish below $ 878
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
Gold rose for the fourth time in five sessions as surging energy costs boost demand for a hedge against inflation. Silver and platinum advanced for a fifth day
Gold climbed 4 percent this year, reaching an all-time high of $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when crude set a previous high. Still, the metal has trailed advances in oil, which has gained 28 percent this year
Gold rose in yesterday after StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, reported a second consecutive gain in investors' holdings. The trust held 590.57 metric tons of gold as of yesterday, up from 580.45 tons on May 5. Investors last month cut their holdings in the ETF by 9.6 percent. The total now held is equal to about three months of global mine supply.
India spot gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading session supported by domestic retail buying and a weaker rupee, Meanwhile, in London, gold eased in early trade as the greenback extended gains against the euro, reducing the gold's appeal as an alternative investment to the dollar.
However, wholesale demand has vanished with higher prices, The Indian rupee fell to a one-year low of 41.82 as record high oil prices pushed up dollar demand from refiners and weak stock markets doused hopes of foreign inflows,
Harmony Gold Mining Co.,Africa's third-biggest producer of the precious metal, said output may rise by a fifth to about 12.5 metric tons in the current quarter as power approaches normal levels and grades improve
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $533.9 billion, the central bank said, The value of reserves increased by $4.4 billion in the week ended May 2, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves rose $10.7 billion in the previous week.
U.S. Economy:
Same-store sales at Wal-Mart were up 3.2% in April, better than expected. At Costco, same-store sales were up 8% in April, also better than expected.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 18,000 to 365,000, less than expected.
Currencies update:
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said there was no call for a rate hike or a rate cut at Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting, and the decision to leave rates unchanged was unanimous.
We were unanimous in deciding to maintain rates where they are. As always, we have examined everything under all angles but there was absolutely no call for anything but the decision that we have taken," he told a news conference following the council meeting in Athens.
Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% in April, but 25,400 new jobs were added, more than expected.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 11973 levels. If market breaches11973 may see prices to take further upside towards 12076 and12252however if it holds back below 11694 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11518 and 11415
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 11785 Target11890 and 11970 Stoploss at11735
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 23282 levels. If market breaches 23282 may see prices to take further upside towards 23515and 23929 however if it holds back below 22635 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22221 and 21988
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22730 Target 22910 and 23250 Stop loss at 22570
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold rose for the fourth time in five sessions as surging energy costs boost demand for a hedge against inflation. Silver and platinum advanced for a fifth day
Gold climbed 4 percent this year, reaching an all-time high of $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when crude set a previous high. Still, the metal has trailed advances in oil, which has gained 28 percent this year
Gold rose in yesterday after StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, reported a second consecutive gain in investors' holdings. The trust held 590.57 metric tons of gold as of yesterday, up from 580.45 tons on May 5. Investors last month cut their holdings in the ETF by 9.6 percent. The total now held is equal to about three months of global mine supply.
India spot gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading session supported by domestic retail buying and a weaker rupee, Meanwhile, in London, gold eased in early trade as the greenback extended gains against the euro, reducing the gold's appeal as an alternative investment to the dollar.
However, wholesale demand has vanished with higher prices, The Indian rupee fell to a one-year low of 41.82 as record high oil prices pushed up dollar demand from refiners and weak stock markets doused hopes of foreign inflows,
Harmony Gold Mining Co.,Africa's third-biggest producer of the precious metal, said output may rise by a fifth to about 12.5 metric tons in the current quarter as power approaches normal levels and grades improve
Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves, the world's third largest, rose to a record $533.9 billion, the central bank said, The value of reserves increased by $4.4 billion in the week ended May 2, Moscow-based Bank Rossii, the central bank, The reserves rose $10.7 billion in the previous week.
U.S. Economy:
Same-store sales at Wal-Mart were up 3.2% in April, better than expected. At Costco, same-store sales were up 8% in April, also better than expected.
The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 18,000 to 365,000, less than expected.
Currencies update:
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said there was no call for a rate hike or a rate cut at Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting, and the decision to leave rates unchanged was unanimous.
We were unanimous in deciding to maintain rates where they are. As always, we have examined everything under all angles but there was absolutely no call for anything but the decision that we have taken," he told a news conference following the council meeting in Athens.
Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% in April, but 25,400 new jobs were added, more than expected.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 11973 levels. If market breaches11973 may see prices to take further upside towards 12076 and12252however if it holds back below 11694 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11518 and 11415
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 11785 Target11890 and 11970 Stoploss at11735
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 23282 levels. If market breaches 23282 may see prices to take further upside towards 23515and 23929 however if it holds back below 22635 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22221 and 21988
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22730 Target 22910 and 23250 Stop loss at 22570
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
A mine worker strike at the Isidora gold mine, run by a subsidiary of U.S. miner Hecla Mining Co, is supporting gold prices apart from unstoppable crude oil prices. The stoppage follows a renewed wave of nationalizations this year affecting the cement and steel sectors, and comes just days after other companies said Venezuela denied exploration permits to two gold miners operating in the same region. The mine worker strike has supported copper and other metals in the past and will support gold at lower prices.
The US dollar has gained against the sterling while it has fallen against the yen and euro. Over the next few weeks every commodity and currency will move on its own. There may not be the kind of direct linkage that we have seen in the past. Movement will be a combination of momentum and technical play. Euro/usd will be volatile as it gets caught between slowing growth in the eurozone and stable interest rates. Growth differentials between the US and the eurozone over the next few months will be the key for the euro against the major currencies. If growth differentials tilt in favor of the US, then gains in euro/usd will be a selling opportunity and vice – versa.
When I chat/speak to my friends and relatives in the US, I get a very bleak picture of the US economy. The headline employment numbers seem to be fudged. There is a more of a dark side to the US economy which I do not know sitting in India. The prime reason is higher prices of food and essentials. Higher prices of essentials have eaten away the rise in salaries for the average worker in the US. Global leaders would like to see a stronger US dollar and bullish equity markets to prevent a collapse of the global financial system. All these measures are bullish for gold in the long term. In the short term there will be wild swings. If the gold investor does not increase his risk appetite then he better invest in treasuries.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $378.
Copper needs to close over $379 today to be in the bullish zone else a fall to $369 and $354 next week. Resistance at $397.10 and $406.40.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The US dollar has gained against the sterling while it has fallen against the yen and euro. Over the next few weeks every commodity and currency will move on its own. There may not be the kind of direct linkage that we have seen in the past. Movement will be a combination of momentum and technical play. Euro/usd will be volatile as it gets caught between slowing growth in the eurozone and stable interest rates. Growth differentials between the US and the eurozone over the next few months will be the key for the euro against the major currencies. If growth differentials tilt in favor of the US, then gains in euro/usd will be a selling opportunity and vice – versa.
When I chat/speak to my friends and relatives in the US, I get a very bleak picture of the US economy. The headline employment numbers seem to be fudged. There is a more of a dark side to the US economy which I do not know sitting in India. The prime reason is higher prices of food and essentials. Higher prices of essentials have eaten away the rise in salaries for the average worker in the US. Global leaders would like to see a stronger US dollar and bullish equity markets to prevent a collapse of the global financial system. All these measures are bullish for gold in the long term. In the short term there will be wild swings. If the gold investor does not increase his risk appetite then he better invest in treasuries.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $378.
Copper needs to close over $379 today to be in the bullish zone else a fall to $369 and $354 next week. Resistance at $397.10 and $406.40.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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