GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

A mine worker strike at the Isidora gold mine, run by a subsidiary of U.S. miner Hecla Mining Co, is supporting gold prices apart from unstoppable crude oil prices. The stoppage follows a renewed wave of nationalizations this year affecting the cement and steel sectors, and comes just days after other companies said Venezuela denied exploration permits to two gold miners operating in the same region. The mine worker strike has supported copper and other metals in the past and will support gold at lower prices.

The US dollar has gained against the sterling while it has fallen against the yen and euro. Over the next few weeks every commodity and currency will move on its own. There may not be the kind of direct linkage that we have seen in the past. Movement will be a combination of momentum and technical play. Euro/usd will be volatile as it gets caught between slowing growth in the eurozone and stable interest rates. Growth differentials between the US and the eurozone over the next few months will be the key for the euro against the major currencies. If growth differentials tilt in favor of the US, then gains in euro/usd will be a selling opportunity and vice – versa.

When I chat/speak to my friends and relatives in the US, I get a very bleak picture of the US economy. The headline employment numbers seem to be fudged. There is a more of a dark side to the US economy which I do not know sitting in India. The prime reason is higher prices of food and essentials. Higher prices of essentials have eaten away the rise in salaries for the average worker in the US. Global leaders would like to see a stronger US dollar and bullish equity markets to prevent a collapse of the global financial system. All these measures are bullish for gold in the long term. In the short term there will be wild swings. If the gold investor does not increase his risk appetite then he better invest in treasuries.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $378.

Copper needs to close over $379 today to be in the bullish zone else a fall to $369 and $354 next week. Resistance at $397.10 and $406.40.

MCXARUN
9994500540