U.S. business bankruptcy filings in April increased 49% from a year earlier, the biggest gain so far this year, as the slowing US economy prompted more companies to shut down. Signs of distress, such as bankruptcies and foreclosures, are rising as economic growth has slowed to its weakest pace since the last recession in 2001. Foreclosures and bankruptcies alike are rising as falling home prices make it harder for those in the U.S. to refinance before adjustable-rate mortgages reset. Median prices for existing homes fell in 22 metropolitan areas in February, down 7.70% from a year earlier. Business gloom along with higher commodity prices is eating into real income. As long as this continues gold will maintain its medium term bullish trend. The US dollar will benefit as other countries/economic zones also slowdown due to higher commodity prices and firm interest rates.
There is hardly anything to comment on metals as crude oil prices seem to be dictating everything. The US dollar is off yesterdays lows but still not out of the woods yet. Markets will be looking forward to the European Central bank meeting (ECB) and bank of England meeting for direction. If the ECB explicitly says that they will raise interest rates to ward off inflation then there will be another round of gains for the euro. If the ECB says that higher commodity prices along with a stronger currency is hurting growth then there will be another round of sell off in euro.
SILVER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT $1712
Intra day as long as $1666 holds downside will be limited and silver will target $1728 and $1772. A consolidated fall below $1666 will result in $1636 and $1600.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to new seven month low of 40.98 yesterday on the back of a continued rise in the crude oil price and volatile stock markets. A weaker rupee will only add to inflationary pressure. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) stance on the rupee will be crucial at this juncture as the sole aim of the government in an election year is to control headline inflation. In 2007 a stronger rupee had a role in controlling inflation. Markets will be looking forward to clues on RBI intervention to check rupee weakness through state run banks. In our view RBI should be happy to intervene as intervention takes away excess liquidity from the money markets. Technically 41.18 is the key medium term resistance and only a close over 41.18 for three to four consecutive days will result in another round of weakness else the rupee will have topped out and near 40.25 once again.
HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING
MCXARUN
9994500540
Showing posts with label currency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label currency. Show all posts
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Copper shocked everybody as comex July futures rose to a record high of $427 just after the comex open and then crashed after mine workers at codelco mines agreed to end the 20 day strike. London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed yesterday else copper would have easily crossed the $9000 mark. The US is the hub of global paper trade while London is the hub of physical trade. Prices are never sustainable unless it is backed by adequate physical demand. We have seen this with gold, silver and some other base metals. Crude oil prices are firm despite greater investment demand as it is also backed by physical demand. Copper will find buyers on dips as long as LME (3 months) holds $8000.
Momentum traders were caught in the whirl pool of copper’s rise. One of my clients was short in comex copper around $396, the sudden rise scared the wits of him and he reversed his trade at $421 only to exit at $408. This person made a double loss while trading. Whenever prices reach a new historical level one needs to check the sustainability of the rise. One should wait and if prices stabilize then go long else go short. Stop losses are useless. One needs to keep in mind the stop loss prices before the trade is done but exit at market prices. Stop losses are bound to get triggered if one put it on the trading screen.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Yesterday's rise to $427 was fake. For the day as long as copper holds $382 and $369 downside will be limited and copper can target $404 and $412.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
A break of $120.60 will result in $121.60 and $125.20. On the lower side only a consolidated fall below $116.20 will result in $113.20.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee has been consolidating in 40.44-40.77 wider range and should break out from this range soon. In the short run unless the rupee breaks 40.88-41.00 zone, the rupee will continue to find sellers on the rise. I have been asked whether the rupee has bottomed out at 39.25. The Rupee has room for more gains in the medium term, but the pace of gains will be slower than 2007. Crude oil prices and the performance of global equities will be the key for the rupee in the medium term. If crude oil continues to rise and global stock markets shag in the medium term, the rupee may reverse the direction from bullish to bearish. Average volatility will be around twenty paise in the next few weeks. Key intra day supports are 40.28 and 40.42 while resistance is at 40.73 and 40.88.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Momentum traders were caught in the whirl pool of copper’s rise. One of my clients was short in comex copper around $396, the sudden rise scared the wits of him and he reversed his trade at $421 only to exit at $408. This person made a double loss while trading. Whenever prices reach a new historical level one needs to check the sustainability of the rise. One should wait and if prices stabilize then go long else go short. Stop losses are useless. One needs to keep in mind the stop loss prices before the trade is done but exit at market prices. Stop losses are bound to get triggered if one put it on the trading screen.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Yesterday's rise to $427 was fake. For the day as long as copper holds $382 and $369 downside will be limited and copper can target $404 and $412.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
A break of $120.60 will result in $121.60 and $125.20. On the lower side only a consolidated fall below $116.20 will result in $113.20.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee has been consolidating in 40.44-40.77 wider range and should break out from this range soon. In the short run unless the rupee breaks 40.88-41.00 zone, the rupee will continue to find sellers on the rise. I have been asked whether the rupee has bottomed out at 39.25. The Rupee has room for more gains in the medium term, but the pace of gains will be slower than 2007. Crude oil prices and the performance of global equities will be the key for the rupee in the medium term. If crude oil continues to rise and global stock markets shag in the medium term, the rupee may reverse the direction from bullish to bearish. Average volatility will be around twenty paise in the next few weeks. Key intra day supports are 40.28 and 40.42 while resistance is at 40.73 and 40.88.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold will be caught between long term investors who continue to invest in dips with a price target of $1100 to $1300 over the next two to three years and short term bears who are trying to ensure that gold tests $800 and then rises. The downside risk for gold is limited to ten percent to twenty percent from the current prices in the next three to six months. Physical demand for gold will continue to rise unless gold has a sustained fall below $800.
Gold is caught between crude oil and the US dollar. Unless the US dollar has sustained gains and the US economy shows stability, gains in the dollar could well be short lived. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains and gold has more room to fall. Ever since the US sub prime crisis began in August 2007, gold has benefited as an alternate investment (apart from being an inflation hedge). If global equities continues to rise some of the investment which moved away from equities into gold will move back into equities. Further soft commodities and energies have given greater returns than gold. These commodities will give competition to gold in search for alternate investments.
If the US economy recovers then crude oil will rise and test $125 in the short term. Asian demand will remain high. Global central banks have been adding liquidity to the money markets; if every thing was okay then they would not add liquidity. Some under reporting is there. Base metals will be volatile as higher copper prices have forced buyers to reduce inventories. Fundamentally zinc has room for more losses but technically at lower prices the risk to return ratio switches in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper has to close below $369 for three to four consecutive days to be in a short term bear phase. LME copper (3 months) has to fall below $7950-$8000 to be in short term bear phase. My contrarian view on copper is that if copper fails to break $410 in May, it will fall to $346 and maybe even $326.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.
Crude oil has to break $120.60 this week else it will fall back to $113.80 and $109.20. A break of $120.60 will result in $125.10.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
Arbitrage in the non deliverable forward (NDF) market has resulted in a weaker rupee. Traders are buying cash selling forward as a hedge. Further there is a greater cash demand for the US dollar due to summer holiday travel. This has resulted in importers covering their short term payables on dips. The current weakness in the rupee will be short lived, once the arbitrage demand is over, the rupee will once again gain to 40.25. Intra day 40.88 is the key resistance support while 40.48 is the key support.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold is caught between crude oil and the US dollar. Unless the US dollar has sustained gains and the US economy shows stability, gains in the dollar could well be short lived. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains and gold has more room to fall. Ever since the US sub prime crisis began in August 2007, gold has benefited as an alternate investment (apart from being an inflation hedge). If global equities continues to rise some of the investment which moved away from equities into gold will move back into equities. Further soft commodities and energies have given greater returns than gold. These commodities will give competition to gold in search for alternate investments.
If the US economy recovers then crude oil will rise and test $125 in the short term. Asian demand will remain high. Global central banks have been adding liquidity to the money markets; if every thing was okay then they would not add liquidity. Some under reporting is there. Base metals will be volatile as higher copper prices have forced buyers to reduce inventories. Fundamentally zinc has room for more losses but technically at lower prices the risk to return ratio switches in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper has to close below $369 for three to four consecutive days to be in a short term bear phase. LME copper (3 months) has to fall below $7950-$8000 to be in short term bear phase. My contrarian view on copper is that if copper fails to break $410 in May, it will fall to $346 and maybe even $326.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.
Crude oil has to break $120.60 this week else it will fall back to $113.80 and $109.20. A break of $120.60 will result in $125.10.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
Arbitrage in the non deliverable forward (NDF) market has resulted in a weaker rupee. Traders are buying cash selling forward as a hedge. Further there is a greater cash demand for the US dollar due to summer holiday travel. This has resulted in importers covering their short term payables on dips. The current weakness in the rupee will be short lived, once the arbitrage demand is over, the rupee will once again gain to 40.25. Intra day 40.88 is the key resistance support while 40.48 is the key support.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s all on the Fed meeting for precious metals and energies. Interest rate expectation has been factored in by the markets. If the Fed wants a stronger US dollar they will signal an interest rate pause. If they want a weaker US dollar they will be hawkish or may not signal an end to the interest rate cuts. A weaker US dollar has boosted the US manufacturing sector in 2008. Job losses in the US are mainly in the financial services sector while the manufacturing sector adds to jobs.
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, April 17, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s all about the US dollar in metals and energies. Metals and energies are being dictated by the movement in the US dollar and not by fundamentals. As long as the US dollar continues to fall metals and energies will trade with a firm bias. Crude oil prices are at $115.0 and could be headed for $125 if it is supported by a weaker US dollar. Year-on Year returns in crude oil is at 86.99% while gold, silver and natural gas have given over thirty percent returns. It’s natural for investors to invest more in these commodities without looking at the fundamental value. In the short term these committees will rise and give good returns in investors.
In 2009, I do not expect such higher returns in commodities to investors. Crude oil is at $115, will crude oil rise to $207 (80% of $115) by April 2009. I do not think so. If crude oil were to rise to $207 by April 2009, we could be nearing a global recession and not just a US lead recession. Central banks will run out of options to control inflation as interest rate cuts will not work. The rise in crude oil and the fall in the US dollar is temporary which can last another six to seven months (under the best case scenario). Day traders and jobbers can trade in either way. Long term investors need to be careful and should buy far dated put options as an hedge against a fall.
Base metals are being supported by falling LME inventories. If food prices continue to rise, the global savings rate will fall, and there will be less retail consumption. Less retail consumption will not be evident now but over the coming years. If a rise in prices of essentials outpace salary hikes, the axe will fall on non essential consumption and lower demand for base metals.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Back to square one. Copper has to break $404-$406 zone for $421 and failure to do the same will result in $382 once again.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $112.20
Intra day as long as $112.50-$112.80 holds crude oil will target $117.10 and $119.60. Remain on the sidelines.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
Falling US dollar and higher global stock markets will result in sellers at higher prices for the Indian rupee. Tomorrow banks are closed due to “Mahavir Jayanti” which could result in position squaring and rebuilding ahead of the long weekend. All eyes will be on the weekly inflation numbers. If inflation rises further, there will be pressure on the rupee to appreciate. Unless the rupee closes over 40.08, it will appreciate to 39.80 and 39.60 in short term.
MCXARUN
9994500540
In 2009, I do not expect such higher returns in commodities to investors. Crude oil is at $115, will crude oil rise to $207 (80% of $115) by April 2009. I do not think so. If crude oil were to rise to $207 by April 2009, we could be nearing a global recession and not just a US lead recession. Central banks will run out of options to control inflation as interest rate cuts will not work. The rise in crude oil and the fall in the US dollar is temporary which can last another six to seven months (under the best case scenario). Day traders and jobbers can trade in either way. Long term investors need to be careful and should buy far dated put options as an hedge against a fall.
Base metals are being supported by falling LME inventories. If food prices continue to rise, the global savings rate will fall, and there will be less retail consumption. Less retail consumption will not be evident now but over the coming years. If a rise in prices of essentials outpace salary hikes, the axe will fall on non essential consumption and lower demand for base metals.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Back to square one. Copper has to break $404-$406 zone for $421 and failure to do the same will result in $382 once again.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $112.20
Intra day as long as $112.50-$112.80 holds crude oil will target $117.10 and $119.60. Remain on the sidelines.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
Falling US dollar and higher global stock markets will result in sellers at higher prices for the Indian rupee. Tomorrow banks are closed due to “Mahavir Jayanti” which could result in position squaring and rebuilding ahead of the long weekend. All eyes will be on the weekly inflation numbers. If inflation rises further, there will be pressure on the rupee to appreciate. Unless the rupee closes over 40.08, it will appreciate to 39.80 and 39.60 in short term.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The G7 meeting has failed to stop the US dollar’s slide despite concerns over the same. Traders are looking at the growth differential between US and other countries before investing. Unless this differential reduces or chances that this differential will reduce in the future the US dollar will continue to find sellers at higher levels. However in the second quarter the pace of the US dollar’s decline will be slower than the first quarter. The same will be with precious metals.
OPEC has quietly begun to reduce its oil production despite calls from the US and Europe for the group to pump more so that prices fall. Output from the core countries of the 13-member cartel last month fell to 27.3m barrels a day, down from the 27.6m b/d they produced in February and 27.8m b/d in January. The International Energy Agency, the western countries’ watchdog, said on Friday in its monthly report. The cuts come despite assurances from Opec ministers that they were keeping their output steady. There are two aspects to crude oil prices: (A) The rise in crude oil prices is more due to investment interest instead of demand and supply factors (B) Opec does not want crude oil prices to fall and it’s base price is getting higher. It is supplying the market with some form of bullish news which is preventing investors from going short or exiting their longs. Another point which I have observed over the past one year is that cyclical demand factors in Asia is the key mover of crude oil prices instead US demand. Crude oil prices can rise to $125 and still fall back to $85 and below.
It will be a technical trade today in all metals and energies. We prefer a buy on dips strategy as long as key technical supports are holding. Selling is preferable only when metals are unable to break medium term technical resistances
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE.
Gold is trading in a wider $912-$950 range. A breakout from this range is in the offing soon.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
2007-2008 direct tax collections are expected to rise to Rs.3, 10,000 crore. The government had revised the direct tax collections target from Rs.267, 490 crore to Rs. 305,000 crore. Customs mop up is all set to exceed the higher revised estimate of Rs.100, 766 crore. Service tax collections to hit revised target of Rs.50,603 crore. Higher tax collections will help the government to meet the sops given to farmers ahead of the general elections before May, 2009 without affecting the fiscal deficit. 2007-2008 was an exceptional year for the Indian economy as the stocks markets were at a higher peak. In 2008-2009 Indian stock markets will not rise much as the previous year. Higher food and energy prices along with lower returns from stock markets should result in lower tax collections. The Rupee will be volatile in the coming weeks. The government will like the rupee to appreciate against the US dollar to control inflation. It is considering stopping even basmati rice exports despite the fact that a negligible portion of the Indian population has basmati rice. Intra day rupee should trade in 39.80-40.08 wider range.
MCXARUN
9994500540
OPEC has quietly begun to reduce its oil production despite calls from the US and Europe for the group to pump more so that prices fall. Output from the core countries of the 13-member cartel last month fell to 27.3m barrels a day, down from the 27.6m b/d they produced in February and 27.8m b/d in January. The International Energy Agency, the western countries’ watchdog, said on Friday in its monthly report. The cuts come despite assurances from Opec ministers that they were keeping their output steady. There are two aspects to crude oil prices: (A) The rise in crude oil prices is more due to investment interest instead of demand and supply factors (B) Opec does not want crude oil prices to fall and it’s base price is getting higher. It is supplying the market with some form of bullish news which is preventing investors from going short or exiting their longs. Another point which I have observed over the past one year is that cyclical demand factors in Asia is the key mover of crude oil prices instead US demand. Crude oil prices can rise to $125 and still fall back to $85 and below.
It will be a technical trade today in all metals and energies. We prefer a buy on dips strategy as long as key technical supports are holding. Selling is preferable only when metals are unable to break medium term technical resistances
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE.
Gold is trading in a wider $912-$950 range. A breakout from this range is in the offing soon.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
2007-2008 direct tax collections are expected to rise to Rs.3, 10,000 crore. The government had revised the direct tax collections target from Rs.267, 490 crore to Rs. 305,000 crore. Customs mop up is all set to exceed the higher revised estimate of Rs.100, 766 crore. Service tax collections to hit revised target of Rs.50,603 crore. Higher tax collections will help the government to meet the sops given to farmers ahead of the general elections before May, 2009 without affecting the fiscal deficit. 2007-2008 was an exceptional year for the Indian economy as the stocks markets were at a higher peak. In 2008-2009 Indian stock markets will not rise much as the previous year. Higher food and energy prices along with lower returns from stock markets should result in lower tax collections. The Rupee will be volatile in the coming weeks. The government will like the rupee to appreciate against the US dollar to control inflation. It is considering stopping even basmati rice exports despite the fact that a negligible portion of the Indian population has basmati rice. Intra day rupee should trade in 39.80-40.08 wider range.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Dubai Multi Commodities Centre plans to start a venture with the World Gold Council to trade the first Islamic securities backed by gold bullion. Through a joint venture called Dubai Gold Investments, the partners plan to create Dubai Gold Shares and list them on the Dubai International Financial Exchange Ltd. Dubai Gold Shares will comply with Islamic Shariah law. The shares will allow holders to gain from advances in the price of gold without having to insure, store and move the metal. Each Dubai Gold Share will represent 0.1 ounce of gold held in custody by the center and HSBC Holdings Plc. This will ensure the securities comply with Islamic principles. After gold related investment instrument similar to exchange traded funds. Very positive news for gold. This could lead to scarcity of gold in the markets. Investment in this instrument will near the total investment in exchange traded funds. Followers of Islam in India would love to have a similar gold investment instrument in India.
IMF gold sales once again are in the headlines. The IMF plan to cut 380 jobs and sell 403.3 tonnes of gold, about an eighth of its reserves, still has to be approved by other authorities. The reforms have the support of the US Treasury, but the gold sales must be approved by Congress, which is unlikely to happen until after the presidential elections this year. IMF gold sales will not have any impact on gold prices as demand is huge to absorb sales.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0
Copper targets $403.80 and $416.90 as long as $388 holds. Copper has to fall below $388 for $372.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $110.70
Crude oil targets $112.10 and $119.80 on a break of $110.60. Falls below $105.90 then $100.0. One needs to be cautious going long at higher prices.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Indian rupee has been trading in 39.80-40.05 against the US dollar over the past few days. The government will allow the rupee to appreciate to control inflation. However the pace of appreciation will not be the same as 2007. A rising rupee has already closed some of the labour intensive units in handicrafts, garments and other sectors. If the rupee appreciates in the big way in 2008, there will be more job losses in the Indian export sector. For the day the rupee will trade in a 39.85-40.08 range.
MCXARUN
9994500540
IMF gold sales once again are in the headlines. The IMF plan to cut 380 jobs and sell 403.3 tonnes of gold, about an eighth of its reserves, still has to be approved by other authorities. The reforms have the support of the US Treasury, but the gold sales must be approved by Congress, which is unlikely to happen until after the presidential elections this year. IMF gold sales will not have any impact on gold prices as demand is huge to absorb sales.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0
Copper targets $403.80 and $416.90 as long as $388 holds. Copper has to fall below $388 for $372.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $110.70
Crude oil targets $112.10 and $119.80 on a break of $110.60. Falls below $105.90 then $100.0. One needs to be cautious going long at higher prices.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Indian rupee has been trading in 39.80-40.05 against the US dollar over the past few days. The government will allow the rupee to appreciate to control inflation. However the pace of appreciation will not be the same as 2007. A rising rupee has already closed some of the labour intensive units in handicrafts, garments and other sectors. If the rupee appreciates in the big way in 2008, there will be more job losses in the Indian export sector. For the day the rupee will trade in a 39.85-40.08 range.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Thursday, February 7, 2008
outlook
April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 906.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 25%
retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 873.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 916.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at
912.00 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 888.40 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 873.90.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.401 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.500 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 17.345 then month resistance crossing at 17.500. First support is today's low crossing at 16.230
then the 25% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 15.895.
March copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.35. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 337.85 is the next upside target. If March renews
Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 311.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at
337.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 337.85. First support is today's low crossing at 317.10. Second support
is last Monday's low crossing at 311.65.
March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's breakout below the 10-day moving average crossing at
90.10. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at
85.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 92.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 90.66. First support is today's low crossing at 86.66. Second support is January's low crossing at 85.42.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above last week's high crossing at 8.123 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March extends the decline off
January's high, January's low crossing at 7.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.080
then last week's high crossing at 8.123. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.580. Second support is January's low
crossing at 7.534.
MCXARUN
9994500540
average crossing at 906.00. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 25%
retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 873.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving
average crossing at 916.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is today's high crossing at
912.00 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 916.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 888.40 then the 25%
retracement level crossing at 873.90.
March silver closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is
near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.401 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
If March renews the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 17.500 is the next upside target. First resistance is
last Friday's high crossing at 17.345 then month resistance crossing at 17.500. First support is today's low crossing at 16.230
then the 25% retracement level of the August-February rally crossing at 15.895.
March copper closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at 324.35. The mid-range close sets
the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in
or is near. If March extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 337.85 is the next upside target. If March renews
Tuesday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 311.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at
337.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 337.85. First support is today's low crossing at 317.10. Second support
is last Monday's low crossing at 311.65.
March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's breakout below the 10-day moving average crossing at
90.10. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at
85.42 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 92.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term low
has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving
average crossing at 90.66. First support is today's low crossing at 86.66. Second support is January's low crossing at 85.42.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes
above last week's high crossing at 8.123 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March extends the decline off
January's high, January's low crossing at 7.534 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 8.080
then last week's high crossing at 8.123. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.580. Second support is January's low
crossing at 7.534.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, January 11, 2008
currency
Money supply has increased by:
a. 42% in Russia
b. 21% in India
c. 18% in China
d. 12% in UK
e. 8% in Canada
a. 42% in Russia
b. 21% in India
c. 18% in China
d. 12% in UK
e. 8% in Canada
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
currency
Euro-FX:
The euro is trading higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 39.32). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 39.32 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support near recent lows. Look for a potential bottom in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
1.4978 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
1.4977 - Highest High in last 50-Days
1.4837 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
1.4774 - Highest High in last 10-Days
1.4686 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4594 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4554 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
1.4530 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4432 - High
1.4427 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4427 - Last Price
1.4413 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
1.4379 - Low
1.4342 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
1.4176 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4033 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
1.3850 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Japanese Yen:
Japanese Yen futures at the CME are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 44.86). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 44.86 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
0.9350 - Highest High in last 50-Days
0.9298 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
0.9186 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
0.9150 - Highest High in last 10-Days
0.9072 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8995 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8963 - High
0.8962 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
0.8927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8920 - Last Price
0.8917 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8900 - Low
0.8895 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
0.8850 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
0.8791 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8580 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8529 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
TradeSignals 2007.
The euro is trading higher this morning reversing the weaker tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. However, despite prices trading below the moving average line, the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session. If prices trade above the moving average then the trend will be clearly established as up. However, this weakness in the price will need to be watched. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a weak bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 39.32). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 39.32 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. The market is oversold and appears to be finding some support near recent lows. Look for a potential bottom in this area.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
1.4978 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
1.4977 - Highest High in last 50-Days
1.4837 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
1.4774 - Highest High in last 10-Days
1.4686 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4594 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4554 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
1.4530 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4432 - High
1.4427 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4427 - Last Price
1.4413 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
1.4379 - Low
1.4342 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
1.4176 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
1.4033 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
1.3850 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
Japanese Yen:
Japanese Yen futures at the CME are weaker this morning reversing the firmer tone seen during the prior session. Trend indicators are indicating a bearish market. However the overall strength of the trend, as indicated by the ADX, is weak and should be watched as a result. Momentum readings are also in bearish territory.
TREND INDICATORS:
Simple Moving Average (10-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 10-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (25-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade below this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in a downward slope from the previous session indicating further weakness. As a result the 25-Day simple moving average has a strong bearish bias.
Simple Moving Average (50-Day): Recent activity this morning has seen prices trade above this moving average. Also, the slope of the moving average is in an upward slope from the previous session indicating further strength. As a result the 50-Day simple moving average has a strong bullish bias.
ADX: The Average Directional Change (ADX) indicates the strength of a markets underlying trend. A rising ADX is interpreted as building trend strength, while a falling ADX indicates weakness in the underlying trend and the potential of a market reversal. On this market, the 14-Day ADX is falling, while the long term trend, based on a 50-Day moving average, is up. However, the weak ADX indicates that the current trend is deteriorating and may possibly reverse. Look for choppiness ahead.
MOMENTUM INDICATORS:
MACD: The MACD is in bearish territory.
RSI: The 14-Day RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 44.86). This indicator issues bullish signals when the RSI line dips below the oversold zone (currently set at 20.00); a bearish signal is generated when the RSI rises into the overbought zone (currently set at 80.00). Nevertheless with the RSI at 44.86 the market is somewhat oversold. However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence of strength from this indicator before getting too bullish here.
VOLATILITY INDICATORS:
Bollinger Bands (20-Day Average +/-1 Standard Deviation): As prices are closer to the bottom band than the top band, the Bollinger Bands are indicating oversold prices. Volatility also appears to be increasing, as evidenced by a larger distance between the upper and lower bands over the past few sessions. Despite this oversold condition the market may become more oversold before turning higher. As a result, the market will look for additional strength in prices before turning bullish on this indicator.
RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS:
0.9350 - Highest High in last 50-Days
0.9298 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 2 Standard Deviations
0.9186 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Plus 1 Standard Deviation
0.9150 - Highest High in last 10-Days
0.9072 - 25-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8995 - 10-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8963 - High
0.8962 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 1 Standard Deviation
0.8927 - 3-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8920 - Last Price
0.8917 - 50-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8900 - Low
0.8895 - Lowest Low in last 10-Days
0.8850 - 20-Day Simple Moving Average Minus 2 Standard Deviations
0.8791 - 100-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8580 - 200-Day Simple Moving Average
0.8529 - Lowest Low in last 50-Days
TradeSignals 2007.
Friday, December 7, 2007
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