energy intrday

Energy

Major Headlines:

Heating oil futures rose to a record inNew York after a report showed declining world inventories, Gasoline futures also advanced to an all-time high, following gains in other energy markets. Supplies of middle distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, dropped 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency,

Crude prices continue its slide as investors started realizing that prices have climbed too fast and the market is overbought. In addition to investors fleeing the market as they figured prices would start dipping was that inventories in the US were predicted to have increased.

Oil prices were also moving in line with changes in the U.S. dollar, but that connection has weakened in recent days. The dollar fell to a record low against the euro in April but has regained ground since then, a weaker greenback makes dollar-priced crude more affordable for holders of stronger currencies.

The IEA, an energy adviser to 27 nations, said global oil supply averaged 86.8 million barrels a day in April, down 400,000 barrels from March. The IEA cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand by about 390,000 barrels a day to 86.84 million barrels. It was the fourth-straight monthly decline.

Demand in bothChina and theMiddle East will rise 4.9 percent, more than making up for a drop in consumption fromNorth America andEurope, the agency said.

OPEC doesn't need to meet before September because crude oil prices are ``fair'',Iran's Oil Ministry news agency said yesterday, citing the country's oil minister. Oil prices may reach $200 a barrel if existing conditions in the market continued,Iran is producing 4.17 million barrels of oil a day and exports 2.5 million barrels daily,

Natural gas inNew York advanced as heating oil and crude surged to records. Global supplies of middle distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, probably dropped 6.7 percent to 477.6 million barrels in March from a year earlier, according to the IEA report.

Utilities and large industrial consumers build gas stockpiles during the summer to meet their needs during winter when demand outstrips production. Hot weather can limit injections by spurring electricity demand from gas-fired power plants to run air conditioners, prompting prices to rise on competition for supplies

TheAtlantic Ocean hurricane season starts June 1. Storms that cut through theGulf of Mexico can disrupt gas production from the region.

MCX Crude Oil May

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5366 levels. If market breaches 5366 may see prices to take further upside towards5432 and 5525 however if it holds back below 5207 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at5114 and 5048

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 5245 Target 5310 and 5375 Stop loss 5195



MCX Natural gas May

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 491.00 levels. If market breaches 491.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 498.00 and 507.50 however if it holds back below 474.50 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 465.00 and 458.00

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 479 Target 486 and 491 Stop loss at 475


MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion




Gold futures are coming off sharply as the dollar rises in reaction to retail sales figures that, while off overall, showed demand climbed in many sectors, Profit taking is also weakening the metal in an atmosphere already dampened by sluggish jewelry and Indian demand reflective of recently higher prices, and the recent stabilization in the equities markets has taken some of the oomph out of the yellow metal.



The Euro system's reserves of gold and gold receivables fell EUR15 million to EUR209.628 billion in the week ended May 9, the European Central Bank said Tuesday.

Gold dropped the most in two weeks as the dollar rebounded against the euro, curbing demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also fell. The dollar gained as much as 0.8 percent on signals theU.S. economy is weathering the housing slump

Interest-rate futures indicate a 94 percent chance the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at its next policy meeting on June 25. That compares with a 10 percent chance a month ago. The Fed cut borrowing costs by 3 percentage points to 2.25 percent from Sept. 18 to March 18. Gold jumped 39 percent in that period, while the euro climbed 12 percent.

Jewellery exports fromIndia, the world's largest producer, rose 31 percent in last month because of an increase in sales of diamonds. Overseas sales rose to $1.74 billion from $1.33 billion a year earlier, Sales of cut and polished diamonds jumped 42.5 percent to $1.24 billion, the council said. Gold jewellery sales fell 6.5 percent to $360 million, while shipments of colored gemstones rose 4 percent to $16.14 million, according to the council.
Gold jewellery sales fell 6.5 percent to $360 million, while shipments of colored gemstones rose 4 percent to $16.14 million, according to the council.India exported gems and jewellery worth $ 20.9 billion in the year ended March 31. Imports of rough diamonds rose 23 percent to $993.5 million last month, according to the data.

Gold prices will trade in a range between $840/oz and $920/oz over the next month tracking movements in the euro against the U.S. dollar, However, the gold should hold above $840/oz but prices will not gain until late in the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter

The fundamental outlook for silver remains weak, particularly given the expectations for strong mine supply growth this year, Coeur D'Alene Mines (CDE) reiterated its silver production target of 16M ounces (up 39% on-year), the company confirmed its San Bartolome mine in Bolivia is in the final stages of start-up and is expected to deliver an impressive 6M ounces during the remainder of this year, and 9M ounces in 2009

StatisticsSouth Africa said that gold production was down 10.1% in the first quarter of 2008 from a year ago.

U.S.Economy:

The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .2% in April, but up 2.0% from a year ago. Excluding autos, sales were up .5%, stronger than expected. The March Eurodollars are trading lower.

Turmoil in financial markets has eased somewhat, but the situation is still "far from normal," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. The central bank has taken a number of unconventional steps – especially since March, when the credit crisis intensified -- to help squeezed banks and Big investment firms overcome problems and try to get credit flowing more freely again.

Currencies update:

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that consumer prices were up 3.0% in April from a year ago, up from a 2.5% gain in March and the most in six years. The June British pound is trading lower.

China's Statistics Bureau said that retail sales were up 22% in April from a year ago, a little more than expected.

MCX Gold June

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11724 if market breaches below11724 may see prices to take further correction towards11617and 11504 however if it holds back above11944 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12057and12164

Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at 11900 Target 11810 and 11720 Stoploss at11945



MCX Silver July

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22695 If market breaches below 22695 may see prices to take further correction towards 22290 and 21830 However if it holds back above23560 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 24020 and 24425

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 23280 Target 23100 and 22850 Stop loss at 23440

MCXARUN
9994500540