safe trade calls

GOLD

book profit on sell below 13475, for the day sell only below 13325 S/L 13350 and T/p 13250 where good support seen/sustain below towards 13050 in coming days OR buy only abv 13585 S/L 13560 and T/p 13640-660/towards 13740. only close above 13765 seen new rally towards 14200-300 in coming days (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13240/12750/ 12150/11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

for the day sell only below 26100 S/L 26200 and T/p 26000/25900/sustain below towards 25700-600 in coming days OR buy only abv 26700 S/L 26620 and T/p 26760-830/26920/towards 27125 where good resistance seen again (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

for the day sell below 5750 & 5725 S/L 5780 and T/p 5680-50/close below seen new down rally OR sell ard 5960-70 S/L 5975 and T/p 5925-5890 upto 5850 (now crude need to close above 6360 for bullish rally while close below 5640/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

we book profit on sell below 352/350, for the day sell below 345 S/L 346.5 and T/p 341-40 OR sell ard 353-353.5 S/L 354 and T/p 351.5 upto 348 (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/ 371/387.5/398 while close below 345.5/ 331.5-330.5/ 326/311 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

ZINC LIKELY TO TEST 72 - 69 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 76, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 91 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)

NICKEL LIKELY TO TEST 860-50 UPTO 825 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 883, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 965-975 UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)


NYMEX CRUDE OIL LIKELY TO TEST $ 129 TOWARDS $ 123 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 135 & $ 131, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE $ 147.5 UPTREND AGAIN(AUG)

LEAD LIKELY TO TEST 62 - 60 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 66.5, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 90 SOME UPTREND AGAIN(JULY)

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 856 & 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 909 & 936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.15 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.20 & 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.70 / 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS


MCXARUN
9994500540

zinc intraday

Zinc support at 79.40
17 July 2008 11:40:05

Zinc yesterday we have seen that market has moved -3.11%. Market has opened at 80.55 & made a low of 76.6 versus the day high of 81.35. The total volume for the day was at 13962 lots and the open interest was at 6683.Now support for the zinc is seen at 75.90 and below could see a test of 73.85. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 80.65, a move above could see prices testing 83.35.

Trading Idea

TRADING RANGE IS 73.50-84.00.
BUY ZINC ABV 79.50 SL 78.80 TGT 80.60-81.40-83.20. MCX
IMP SUPPORT IS 79.40 LEVEL

MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Nickel sell at 895-900
17 July 2008 11:41:00

Yesterday the LME nickel stock was -258 against the previous of -198 Nickel has touched a low of Rs 883 a kg after opening at Rs .902, and last traded at Rs 889.For today market is looking for the support at 879, a break below could see a test of 869 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 903, a move above could see prices testing 916.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 869.00-916.00.
SELL NICKEL @ 895-900 SL 906.50 TGT 888-882-876-860. MCX
ONLY ABV 912 LEVEL LOOK TO HAVE POSITIVE TREND ELSE WEAK
ONLY BELOW 920 LEVEL LOOK WEAK

MCXARUN
9994500540

crude intraday

Crude bearish below 132
17 July 2008 11:38:25

Crude oil traded little changed near $135 a barrel in New York after falling almost 3 percent yesterday as U.S. inventories increased unexpectedly. Support for the crude at 5677 and below could see a test of 5543. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 5993, a move above could see prices testing 6175.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 5543-6175.
SELL CRUDE @ 5800-5820 SL 5852 TGT 5762-5734-5690. MCX
CRUDE BELOW 132$ LOOK BEARISH ELSE 138-140 WILL BE THE RANGE

MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Copper support at 344.10
17 July 2008 11:39:11

The union leadership at the Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru has called off strike action threatened for today to allow for further talks with management on their grievances, mostly related to working conditions. Also Copper stock was 650mt against the previous of 325mt. Copper has touched a low of Rs 345.6 a kg after opening at Rs 352.95, and last traded at Rs347.45.For today market is looking for the support at 344.10, a break below could see a test of 340.80 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 352.30, a move above could see prices testing 357.10.

Trading Ideas

TRADING RANGE IS 340.80-357.10
SELL COPPER @ 348-349 SL 352.20 TGT 346.80-345.60-344.20. MCX
AS STRIKE IS CALLED OFF COPPER CAN TAKE SUPPORT TILL SUPPORT TILL 337-338 LEVEL. MCX
STILL MARKET IS RANGING 350-360 LVL

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex crude intraday

Crude Outlook July 17, 2008
17 July 2008 12:38:18

Oil extended Tuesday’s sharp fall, making a combined loss of over $10 on closing basis in two days, the biggest two-day drop in more than 17 years. A surprise rise in US crude inventories, concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand and OPEC’s downward revision of world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009 affected oil.

Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $139.30 - $132.00, before settling at $135.10 a barrel.

US crude inventories rose 3 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels in the week ended July 11, according to the weekly inventory report by US Energy Information Administration released on Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee said Tuesday that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. According to a report to Congress submitted along with Bernanke's testimony, the Fed said that FOMC members were more uncomfortable about the inflation outlook at their June meeting than they had been at any point this year.

OPEC in its latest monthly report lowered its forecast for world oil-demand growth for 2008 to 1.03 million barrels a day, which represents a decline of 70,000 barrels from its previous estimate. Global oil demand this year is expected to average 86.81 million barrels a day.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July, and had been hovering near the level supported by geopolitical tensions in oil-rich countries such as Nigeria and Iran. A five-day strike started on Monday by workers of Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras, which is expected to halt oil production of about 400,000 barrels a day, also supported oil price.

Iran reportedly test fired a number of missiles last week, including a long-range missile capable of striking Israel, sending a defiant message to the West and strengthening the view that Iran has no intentions of halting its uranium enrichment programme.

The Group of Eight leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States had warned that soaring oil and food prices pose a serious challenge to stable worldwide economic growth. They also called for diversifying sources of energy and further efforts to improve energy efficiency.

Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season also continue to underpin oil prices.

Weekly Outlook (Crude oil NYMEX)

Continuation of uptrend expected above $147.50. Resistances $149.70, $154.80, $160.00; supports $142.60, $139.80, $132.00.

DWTI (July) traded in the range $139.10 - $132.16 and closed at $134.60 ($138.74).

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (July) - Bullish above 134.58; bearish below 133.95

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold intraday

Gold Outlook July 17, 2008
17 July 2008 12:40:23



A better-than-expected industrial output data from the US and an unexpectedly large increase in US inflation helped the greenback to recover moderately.

According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.

The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell below its previous record low of 18 in June to a new record low of 16 in July, indicating a fall in builder confidence in the US market for newly built single-family homes, for the third consecutive month.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said Tuesday that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.

The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).

Oil price continued the previous day’s sharp fall, making a combined loss of over $10 on closing basis in two days, the biggest two-day drop in more than 17 years. A surprise rise in US crude inventories, concerns that slowing economic growth might dampen oil demand and OPEC’s downward revision of world oil-demand growth for 2008 and 2009 affected oil.

Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.

In economic data released last week, the US Labor Department said initial jobless claims in US fell by 58,000, the largest one-week decline in more than two years, to 346,000 for the week ended July 5. The four-week average of initial claims recorded a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week to 379,250. However, continuing claims rose by 91,000 to reach 3.2 million for the week ended June 28. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose, up 16,500 to 3.13 million, the highest since 2004.

The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.

Meanwhile, the US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.

The US Consumer Confidence fell in June to a 16-year low. According to Conference Board, June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a reading of 58.1 in May.

The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

Continuation of uptrend expected above $969.30. Resistances are $978, $988, $1002; Supports $955, $947, $940.

Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $982.30 – $958.90 and closed at $961.10 ($974.30).

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 958.70; bearish below $ 953.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

silver intraday

Silver trading range 25704-27016
17 July 2008 11:37:45

Silver has weakened back to the 18.78 area after it failed move above $19.00. The market will look to buy on dips towards 18.46 and likely liquidate only on a move below the May top of 18.34. The gold/silver ratio tried the 52.00 area before falling back to 51.25. Now support for the silver is seen at 25961 and below could see a test of 25704. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 26617, a move above could see prices testing 27016.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 25704-27016.
BUY SILVER @ 26100-180 SL 25980 TGT 26350-26435-26570-26865. MCX
A BREAK OF 25840 WILL TAKE SUPPORT TILL 25200 LVL
ELSE MKT IS BULLISH TILL THE SAME HIGH.

MCXARUN
9994500540

gold intraday

Gold pulled back today for the first time in 5 days. We are still holding above the minor 955 and major 946 support points, and accordingly our bias remains bullish. The topside resistance is seen to be at 988 with the major target still holding at 1032. Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 13250 and below could see a test of 13135. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13560, a move above could see prices testing 13755.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 13135-13755.
SELL GOLD BELOW 13160 SL 13235 TGT 13100-13080-13000. MCX
OR SELL ABOVE 13450 SL 13475 TGT 13400-13360-13280. MCX
IN SPOT 948-950 IS THE GOOD LEVEL FOR BUYING.

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The US dollar – crude oil - gold relationship is dictating the metals markets. Base metals fell as Chinese demand remains low before the Olympics. Unless physical demand for gold, silver or any other metal rises along with the rise in prices, there will always be fear of a correction or a slide from the highs. Investment demand can change overnight also. Gold, physical demand is virtually zero. Platinum has also fallen on lack of demand. The lagging effects of higher crude oil prices have now started showing their colours.

Some of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are seeking to scale back their exposure to the US dollar in a sign of global concern about the currency. One big sovereign fund in the Gulf has cut its dollar-denominated holdings from more than 80 per cent a year ago to less than 60 per cent, while China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has been looking to strike deals with private equity firms in Europe as a part of a strategy to reduce its dollar holdings. Sovereign wealth funds have played a leading role in helping to recapitalise faltering US banks, but have lost money so far on such investments. Continuing market turbulence has further shaken their faith in US policy and policymakers. The current decline of the US dollar will have long term effects by way of declining share of the US dollar in global trade and financial services.

COPPER -- SEPTEMBER FUTURE

$354 is the key support. Resistance $378. A fall below $354 will result in $347 and $339.

MCXARUN
9994500540