comex gold intraday

Weak demand forecasts affect Oil prices
11 June 2008 11:51:36



Oil prices continued the recoil from record high levels reached last week. Forecasts for lower global oil consumption amid the skyrocketing prices also affected the movement.



The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.



According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $131.70 ($134.35), after trading in the range $137.98 - $130.80.



The price of benchmark contract of crude oil in the New York Mercantile Exchange had soared over $10 to a new all-time high of $139.12 a barrel on Friday, recording the biggest one-day gain in dollar terms, as geo-political tensions were ignited by Israel’s threats to strike on Iran over its nuclear programme.



Israel's Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz on Friday commented that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites could not be ruled out if Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons.



Another drop in inventories also fuelled the rally. US Crude supplies had dropped by 4.8 million barrels to 306.8 million for the week ended May 30, according to the latest update by US Energy Department, taking the total fall in supplies in three weeks to around 19 million barrels.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.



The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.



Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.



Meanwhile, Iran has cut its crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels a day since February 20 due to a seasonal fall in demand for crude oil during the refinery maintenance period. Iran is the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, currently producing around 4 million barrels a day, of which roughly 2.5 million barrels a day is exported.



On the supply side, ministers from the OPEC have indicated any output increase from the cartel remains unlikely, as it continues to blame record prices on speculation, geopolitical factors and the dollar's decline, rather than a lack of crude in the market.



DWTI (July) traded in the range $138.00 - $131.31 and closed at $131.86 ($134.75).

Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)

Expected to get supports at $133, $128 and $121.40; resistances are $137.65, $142.40 and $149.70.



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)


DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 133.55; bearish below 133.00


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comex gold intraday

Selling pressure in DGCX Gold
11 June 2008 11:49:23



A sharp recovery in the dollar and continuation of profit booking in oil increased the selling pressure in gold yesterday.



International spot gold traded as low as $864.15 from the intra-day high of $894.65 and last quoted at $866.35 ($891.90).



Dollar extended gains against the major currencies, buoyed by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding growing inflation fears, which hinted at a possible rate hike later this year.



A rise in pending home sales also helped the dollar to bounce back. The National Association of Realtors’ April pending home sales index, which is considered as a leading indicator of existing home sales, rose 6.3% in April.



But according to the report by US Commerce Department on Tuesday, the US trade deficit widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.



Dollar had fallen sharply towards the end of last week, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Labor Department reported a more-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in May to 5.5%, against the expected 5.1%. The total number of unemployed persons increased by 861,000 to 8.5 million in May, after seasonal adjustment, as per the government's Household Survey Data. However, the non-farm payrolls fell by 49,000.



Also according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 18,000 to 357,000 in the week ended May 31. The four-week average of initial claims also dropped, falling by 2,750 to 368,500. Continuing claims fell by 16,000 in the week ended May 24, dropping to 3.09 million. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 3.08 million, up 15,250.



The euro had strengthened after the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet hinted at a possible future interest-rate hike, amid surging inflation pressures in the euro-zone. According to a preliminary estimate by the statistical agency Eurostat, the consumer inflation hit an annualized pace of 3.6% in May, well above the ECB's target of just below 2%.



Eurostat data early last week had shown a slight upward revision of the first-quarter euro-zone gross domestic product, according to which the economy grew by 0.8% against the previous estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth was unrevised at 2.2%.



The ECB on May 5th chose to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 4 %.



According to the data released by Commerce Department, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.



The recent data from various sectors in the US have given mixed hints regarding the economy.



Oil prices continued the recoil from record high levels reached last week. Forecasts for lower global oil consumption amid the skyrocketing prices also affected the movement.



The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.



According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $131.70 ($134.35), after trading in the range $137.98 - $130.80.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output underpin oil prices.



Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $894.30 – $867.00 and closed at $869.40 ($895.50).



Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)



More correction expected below $887. Supports are $881, $875, $864; resistances $900, $908, $917.



DGCX Gold August



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 877.00; bearish below $ 872.50

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safe trade calls

GOLD

for the day sell below 12050 & more below 12000 S/L 12090 and T/p 11925/ 11850/close below 12000 test 11800-700 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 12385-95 S/L 12400 and T/p 12320-275 (any time close above 12400/12630/ 12875/13050/13330/13510 bullish while close below 12000/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER


for the day sell only below 23300 S/L 23400 and T/p 23200-125/23000/ 22875/ close below 22875 test 22300-22000 in coming days OR sell ard 23860-70 S/L 23900 and T/p 23750-675/23550 (any time close below 23100-22875/22300/ 21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24750/25500/ 26300/27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

EIA Crude oil inventory data schedule to release today. for the day sell below 5625 S/L 5655 and T/p 5575-5525/5475 where good support seen OR sell ard 5800-5 S/L 5815 and T/p 5760-5700 (now crude need to close above 5960 for bullish rally while close below 5400/ 5210/ 5120/5050/4740/4450 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


for the day sell only below 336 S/L 337.5 and T/p 334-332/330.5/below down rally OR buy abv 341.5 - 342.25 S/L 340 and T/p 344-346.25/347.5/ 350.5/352.5/abv uprally (upside strong rally only on close above 352.5/361.5 while close below 330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
9994500540

long view calls

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 859 & 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 909 & 936 TOWARDS 950-55 AND CLOSE ABOVE 955 RALLY TOWARDS TEST $ 980 - $ 1000 ATLEAST IN COMING DAYS

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 15.50-15.40/15.15 UPTO $ 14.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 16.40 & 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 17.70 / 18.30 & 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS


MCXARUN
9994500540

lead intraday

MCX Lead trades weak
11 June 2008 10:28:07

MCX Lead traded mostly weak for the day following Lme and other metals. Market close near 84.10 levels after registering a low of 82.75 with minor losses.

MCX Lead June -Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 83.0 level. If broken can see further fall to 81.8 and 80.9, If market holds above 83.9 further rally can be seen towards 85.1 and 86.0

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 85 Target 83 and 81 SL 85.95

MCXARUN
9994500540

Zinc intraday

Zinc remains neutral to bearish
11 June 2008 10:27:11

Zinc fell by the exchange-imposed daily limit in Shanghai, following declines in prices on the London Metal Exchange as the dollar rose, curbing demand for raw materials as an alternative investment.

Zinc futures fell by the exchange- imposed daily limit to a record low in Shanghai, tracking declines on the London Metal Exchange as the dollar rose and high inventories weighed on prices.

Stockpiles of zinc in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose for the first time in five days yesterday to 143,250 metric tons, up 61 percent since the start of the year. Zinc inventories in Shanghai fell 408 tons to 68,250 tons last week, still 25 percent above levels at the start of the year.

The Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen, pound and three other major currencies, rose for a second day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said risks to the U.S. economy have diminished, prompting traders to increase bets on higher interest rates.

MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:

The daily statistics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 82.2 level. If broken can see further fall to 81.2 and 80.0, If market holds above 83.4 further rally can be seen towards 84.4 and 85.6

Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 84 Target 82 and 80 SL 84.95


MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

Volatility hits Nickel futures
11 June 2008 10:25:15

MCX Nickel June traded volatile and closed at 991 with net gain of 44.50, market was supported by LME movements.

OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the world's biggest producer of nickel and palladium, reported an unexpected drop in 2007 profit after slashing almost $2 billion off the value of mining and power companies it bought last year.

Demand and supply will be ``in balance'' in 2009, Deputy Chief Executive Officer Tav Morgan said on the conference call. The board was ``directly responsible'' for the writedowns, United Co. Rusal, the second-largest shareholder in Norilsk.

Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's second-biggest exporter of nickel, will face a new trade barrier in the European Union after some compounds of the metal were considered a health risk, Valor Economico reported.

MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1018 level. if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1046 and 1089 , If market sustains below 975 can see a further fall towards 947 and 904

Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 985-983 Target 1014 and 1025 SL 265

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

It’s more of a US dollar gain story for metals and energies. The US administration has been telling the world that they need a strong US dollar. Yesterday the US president also repeated the same. There seems to be a sense of urgency by US officials in telling the world that a strong US dollar is here to stay. Most of the commodities are priced in US dollars which has contributed to global inflation. If the US dollar continues to weaken, then nations will be forced to ignore the US dollar peg and look at some other options. The US is a super power only due to the acceptance of the US dollar in global trade. If the US dollar losses its acceptance, then the world will get another super power.

Crude oil and the US dollar will dictate gold, silver and metals prices. Technically they are in a neutral zone. It remains to be seen how long the US dollar continues to gain. US weekly crude oil inventories will be the key.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $373.80

Copper has to hold the $347-$350 zone or break $363 and $372 for direction.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60

Crude oil rose to $138 and then fell. Crude oil has a tendency to overshoot and undershoot. Today there is the US weekly crude oil inventory report. If crude oil does not break $145 this week then it will fall to $121.60 and $116.20 once again.

MCXARUN
9994500540

copper intraday

Copper futures trade 4-month low in Shanghai
11 June 2008 10:21:00

Copper futures traded near a four- month low in Shanghai after China's stock market extended losses amid concern a central bank order for lenders to set aside more reserves will hurt corporate earnings and slow economic growth.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's two stock exchanges, dropped below 3,000 points for the first time since April. Copper, used in buildings and power grids, often moves in line with economic growth expectations.

China told lenders to set aside more money for a fifth time this year to cool inflation that is close to an 11-year high in the world's fastest-growing major economy. Banks must put aside a record 17 percent of deposits asb reserves starting June 15, which rises to 17.5 percent from June 25, the People's Bank of China said June 7. The current requirement is 16.5 percent.

Workers from Mexico's largest mining union fought with police and destroyed road barriers in the Mexican capital today to pressure for a solution for strikes at copper producer Grupo Mexico SAB, daily La Jornada reported.

Copper demand growth is slowing as users respond to six straight annual price jumps by substituting with aluminum and plastics when they can, said Luvata, the world's third-largest producer of brass and copper products.

Consumers used cheaper raw materials to replace about 517,000 metric tons of copper consumption last year, Warren Bartel, senior vice president at London-based Luvata, said today at a Metal Bulletin conference in Sofia, Bulgaria. That's equal to about 3 percent of annual refined metal usage.

Copper prices will this year average 15 percent higher than in 2007 on mine disruptions and delays to new projects, according to London-based researcher CRU. The benchmark three-month contract will average $8,200 a metric ton, up from $7,103 a ton last year, analyst Nikhil Shah said today at a Metal Bulletin conference in Sofia, Bulgaria.

The Dollar Index, a weighted measure against the euro, yen, pound and three other major currencies, rose for a second day after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said risks to the U.S. economy have diminished, prompting traders to increase bets on higher interest rates.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 335.98 levels. If broken can see further fall to 333.97 and 331.28, If market holds above 338.67 further rally can be seen towards 340.68 and 343.37.

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 337.50-338 Target 335 and 332 SL 339.80

MCXARUN
9994500540