Gold prices ended slightly lower after volatile trade yesterday.
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day DGCX Gold April traded in the range $914.00 - $900.00 and last quoted at $910.50 ($911.30).
DGCX Gold April
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (Apr) - Bullish above $ 911.00; bearish below $ 907.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 3693 BEARISH BELOW 3677
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11587 BEARISH BELOW 11549
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22060 BEARISH BELOW 21968
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 307.40 BEARISH BELOW 306.60
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 119.80 BEARISH BELOW 119.40
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1103 BEARISH BELOW 1097
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 95.60 BEARISH BELOW 95.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 11587 BEARISH BELOW 11549
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 22060 BEARISH BELOW 21968
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 307.40 BEARISH BELOW 306.60
LEAD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 119.80 BEARISH BELOW 119.40
NICKEL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 1103 BEARISH BELOW 1097
ZINC (February) BULLISH ABOVE 95.60 BEARISH BELOW 95.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Outlook : Bullion, Base Metals & Energy
Gold prices ended slightly lower after volatile trade yesterday.
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day, MCX gold April opened at 11562, traded in the range of 11624 – 11475 and closed at 11585.
Copper February in MCX opened at 308.50, traded in the range 309.70 – 303.00 and closed at 307.65.
MCXARUN
9994500540
The dollar edged higher supported by better-than-expected Retail Sales data from the US. According to the release by US Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3 % in January.
Reported decline in gold imports from India, the top consuming country influenced the price movement in bullion.
According to India's Bombay Bullion Association gold imports in January slumped to five tons from 62 tons a year earlier, as record high prices affected the demand for the yellow metal.
The Group of Seven industrial nations had approved on Saturday the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund from April. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold reserves, after the Federal Reserve and Germany's Bundesbank.
International spot gold traded in the range $910.00 - $896.10 and last quoted at $ 904.70 ($905.70).
Oil prices settled above $93 a barrel as traders weighed the threat by Venezuela to halt oil supply to the US and a less-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, against the EIA’s downward revision of world oil demand estimate.
Venezuela's state oil company announced on Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. and suspended commercial relations with the US-based oil giant. The President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez had recently threatened to entirely cut supply to the United States.
The weekly inventory report by US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration showed Crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb 8. However, an increase of about 2.5 million barrels had been widely expected.
In a monthly report released on Tuesday, the EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.
Also the EIA put forward a downward revision of the oil demand estimate, citing increased risks of a global economic slowdown in 2008. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2008, about 200,000 barrels lower than last month's estimate.
Crude oil March in NYMEX traded in the range $91.90 - $93.89 and closed at $93.34 ($92.78).
Medium-term Outlook (Spot Gold)
Gold prices are expected to trade within the range $837 - $770. Breaking of either level may decide the direction. $801 may act as the major resistance followed by $824, $836, $850, $863, 872, $887, $900, $912, $915.40, $926. Supports are $754 and $744.
Last day, MCX gold April opened at 11562, traded in the range of 11624 – 11475 and closed at 11585.
Copper February in MCX opened at 308.50, traded in the range 309.70 – 303.00 and closed at 307.65.
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Better than expected US January retail sales is positive news for base metals bulls. If the US is able to fend off a recession (which has already been discounted in current base metals prices), all the base metals will out perform precious metals. Crude oil will remain firm if the US avoids recession. However it will not be one way traffic in base metals as investors have memories of last year’s fall. China will remain the key factor for base metals. Once all the snow gets melted and Chinese factories resume normal operations base metals will form a direction as by that time one will be able to estimate the incremental base metals demand caused by heavy snowfall. Chinese factories will also be preparing for the Olympics games in August.
Crude oil prices are floating over $85 a barrel so far in 2008, that too on the time when there is no peak summer demand and there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. IEA has reduced its 2008 crude oil global demand forecast to 1.67 million barrels a day. Crude oil demand from countries like India and other nations will continue to rise as prices are subsidized below $70 a barrel. If crude oil prices are able to hold $85 till April, it can rise to $117 and more in the summer. However I’m not a crude oil bull and still expect crude oil to fall to $78 this summer when there is more evidence of reduced global demand.
Gold and silver will be volatile. Silver will continue to outperform gold. There is mild physical demand at lower levels. Spot silver has to break $18.00 by next week for gains. Technically gold is in neutral zone.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$920.30
Gold has to hold $896.80 to prevent a fall to $888 and $878.60. On the higher side a break of $916.10 will result in $924 and $932.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.20
Crude oil has to hold $89.56 to be in bullish zone or break $95 for direction.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Crude oil prices are floating over $85 a barrel so far in 2008, that too on the time when there is no peak summer demand and there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. IEA has reduced its 2008 crude oil global demand forecast to 1.67 million barrels a day. Crude oil demand from countries like India and other nations will continue to rise as prices are subsidized below $70 a barrel. If crude oil prices are able to hold $85 till April, it can rise to $117 and more in the summer. However I’m not a crude oil bull and still expect crude oil to fall to $78 this summer when there is more evidence of reduced global demand.
Gold and silver will be volatile. Silver will continue to outperform gold. There is mild physical demand at lower levels. Spot silver has to break $18.00 by next week for gains. Technically gold is in neutral zone.
GOLD -- APRIL FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$920.30
Gold has to hold $896.80 to prevent a fall to $888 and $878.60. On the higher side a break of $916.10 will result in $924 and $932.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $90.20
Crude oil has to hold $89.56 to be in bullish zone or break $95 for direction.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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