February gold closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving
average crossing at 806.70. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with November's low appears to be forming. Monday's close above the
reaction high crossing at 813.00 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the
reaction high crossing at 844.20 later this month. Closes below November's low crossing at 780.40 would renew the decline off
last month's high while opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of the year. First resistance is today's high
crossing at 819.30 then the reaction high crossing at 844.20. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 790.90 then last
Monday's low crossing at 783.00.
March silver closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 14.633. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI
remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction
high crossing at 15.220 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 14.975 then the reaction high
crossing at 15.220. First support is Monday's low crossing at 14.500 then last Thursday's low crossing at 14.125.
January crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends last week's trading range but closed above the 10-day moving average
crossing at 89.22. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are
turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.39
are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50%
retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at .8374 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 90.73. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 91.51. First support is the 38% retracement level
crossing at 87.41 then last Thursday's low crossing at .85.82.
anuary Henry natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid-range close sets the
stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that
sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at
6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.628 would confirm that a short-term
low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.239 then the 20-day moving average crossing
at 7.628. First support is Monday's low crossing at 6.950 then weekly support crossing at 6.801.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The Fed surprised the markets by not surprising it as some traders positioned themselves for a surprise fifty basis point cut which did not happen and the sell off in equities and commodities. It’s back to square one for now and traders will be once again shredding every piece of US economic data and position themselves for the next interest rate meeting. We expect the Fed to continue with the quarter point easing till March 2008 and may be even till June and stop thereafter. In the first quarter of 2008 most of the central banks will have to make a choice between growth and inflation as crude oil prices were hovering around $60 a barrel in the first quarter of 2007 and lower base effect will result in higher headline inflation globally.
Base metals will be more volatile than precious metals and energies for the last three weeks of the year. In the first quarter of 2008, metals, commodities and emerging market stocks may get preference over equities, bonds and currency trading. The volatility, which we have seen in the first week of December in precious metals is just a trailer of the things to come in 2008. Silver has disappointed so far in 2007 and hopefully should be able to generate more investor interest in 2008. Globally physical silver stocks should decline.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE
Copper has to break $307.60 for $317.10 and $322.60. On the lower side, key short-term support at 293.30.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
Crude oil has to hold $86.32 to prevent a fall to $82. On the higher side only a break $92 will result in further gains.
Base metals will be more volatile than precious metals and energies for the last three weeks of the year. In the first quarter of 2008, metals, commodities and emerging market stocks may get preference over equities, bonds and currency trading. The volatility, which we have seen in the first week of December in precious metals is just a trailer of the things to come in 2008. Silver has disappointed so far in 2007 and hopefully should be able to generate more investor interest in 2008. Globally physical silver stocks should decline.
COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE
Copper has to break $307.60 for $317.10 and $322.60. On the lower side, key short-term support at 293.30.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
Crude oil has to hold $86.32 to prevent a fall to $82. On the higher side only a break $92 will result in further gains.
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