CRUDE OIL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 3575 BEARISH BELOW 3560
GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 10175 BEARISH BELOW 10135
SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 18500 BEARISH BELOW 18420
COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 256.30 BEARISH BELOW 255.70
LEAD (December) BULLISH ABOVE 96.80 BEARISH BELOW 96.40
NICKEL (December) BULLISH ABOVE 1024 BEARISH BELOW 1020
ZINC (December) BULLISH ABOVE 91.10 BEARISH BELOW 90.70
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
intraday 18/12/07
- gold
now only fall below 10080/10025 & 9950 bearish rally more. for the day sell below 10110 & 10080 S/L 10135 and T/p 10050-25/9950/bearish rally OR sell ard 10265-70 S/L 10280 and T/p 10220-195/10140 (any time close above 10430/10700-770 bullish while close below 10025/9950/9750/9420/9025 bearish for medium term)
- silver
now as long resist 18675 & 18925 down trend likely to continue. for the day sell only below 18275-250 S/L 18360 and T/p 18175-100/bearish rally OR sell ard 18740-50 S/L 18775 and T/p 18675/600/18525 (any time close below 18100/17750/17050/16450 bearish rally while close above 19550/ 19975/20425/21325/23150 bullish for medium term)
- crude
book profit on sell below 3570, for the day sell below 3535 S/L 3555 and T/p 3500-10/3465/3435/sustain below 3400 bearish rally OR sell ard 3618-25 S/L 3630 and T/p 3600-3570 (now crude need to close above 3715/3870/3915 for bullish while close below 3500/3400/ 3290-60 bearish for medium term)
- copper
continue to view as long resistance 259/ 261.5 down trend continue, book profit on sell below 272/269-68/261/256.5, for the day sell only below 253.5 S/L 255 and T/p 252-50/247 upto 242 days to come OR sell ard 260.5-261 S/L 261.5 and T/p 258.5-256 (upside strong rally only on close above 276/282/293/299/ 314/321.5/327/331.5/348 while close below 250/235 bearish for medium term)
Base Metals
Major Headline:
Aluminum dropped to a two-month low in London on speculation producers will increase output as an economic slowdown stalls demand from home builders. Copper fell to a nine-month low.
Aluminum output will exceed demand through 2008 after a supply deficit of 410,000 metric tons last year, Societe Generale SA said in a Dec. 14 report. The price of the metal used in construction, cars and beverage cans has dropped 14 percent this year and is headed for its first annual decline in five years.
Copper tumbled to a nine-month low on speculation that a slumping U.S. economy will erode demand for the metal used in homes, cars and appliances.
Manufacturing in New York this month expanded at the weakest pace since May, a report showed today. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Dec. 16 that U.S. growth is ``getting close to stall speed.'' Copper dropped 5.4 percent last week on concern consumption will fall in the U.S., the world's second-largest user of the metal.
European stocks fell on concern the combination of faster inflation and losses related to the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgages will sap economic growth.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group dropped as copper tumbled to a nine-month low. UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG led bank shares lower. Assicurazioni Generali SpA paced declines among insurers after UBS downgraded the stock.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.4 percent to 362.02 as of 4:06 p.m. in London. Widening losses tied to the U.S. mortgage market have dragged the measure down 9.6 percent from a 6 1/2-year high reached June 1. All 18-industry groups except food & beverage retreated today.
copper Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Sell at 256-257 for the target of 250.20, 247 and 242 with stop loss at 261.50
zinc Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Dec: Sell at 91.90-92.30 for the target of 90.10 and 89.10 with stop loss at 93.20
nickel Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Dec: Sell at 1025-30 for the target of 1005 and 995 with stop loss at 1039
lead Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are on hold from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Dec: Sell at 96.50-97.00 for the target of 94 and 92 with stop loss at 98.50
MCXARUN
Aluminum dropped to a two-month low in London on speculation producers will increase output as an economic slowdown stalls demand from home builders. Copper fell to a nine-month low.
Aluminum output will exceed demand through 2008 after a supply deficit of 410,000 metric tons last year, Societe Generale SA said in a Dec. 14 report. The price of the metal used in construction, cars and beverage cans has dropped 14 percent this year and is headed for its first annual decline in five years.
Copper tumbled to a nine-month low on speculation that a slumping U.S. economy will erode demand for the metal used in homes, cars and appliances.
Manufacturing in New York this month expanded at the weakest pace since May, a report showed today. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Dec. 16 that U.S. growth is ``getting close to stall speed.'' Copper dropped 5.4 percent last week on concern consumption will fall in the U.S., the world's second-largest user of the metal.
European stocks fell on concern the combination of faster inflation and losses related to the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgages will sap economic growth.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group dropped as copper tumbled to a nine-month low. UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG led bank shares lower. Assicurazioni Generali SpA paced declines among insurers after UBS downgraded the stock.
The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index fell 1.4 percent to 362.02 as of 4:06 p.m. in London. Widening losses tied to the U.S. mortgage market have dragged the measure down 9.6 percent from a 6 1/2-year high reached June 1. All 18-industry groups except food & beverage retreated today.
copper Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper Feb: Sell at 256-257 for the target of 250.20, 247 and 242 with stop loss at 261.50
zinc Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc Dec: Sell at 91.90-92.30 for the target of 90.10 and 89.10 with stop loss at 93.20
nickel Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel Dec: Sell at 1025-30 for the target of 1005 and 995 with stop loss at 1039
lead Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are on hold from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead Dec: Sell at 96.50-97.00 for the target of 94 and 92 with stop loss at 98.50
MCXARUN
Bullion
Gold fell for a fourth trading day in MCX/ Comex as the dollar strengthened against the euro, eroding the metal's appeal as a hedge against declines in the U.S. currency. Silver also declined.
Fading chances of further interest rate cut by Fed higher than expected consumer inflation data underpinned dollar on Friday. The dollar index rose 1.1% at 77.445, its highest level since Oct. 25. Higher inflation would deter Fed to make further cut in interest rates. The precious metal market seems focusing on the currency movements at this stage and thus ignored the higher inflation figures. Higher inflation is often seen as supportive for gold as it increases the investment demand for the metal as inflation hedge. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in November.
Investment demand for gold accelerated in the second half of 2007 after some weakness in first half. Gold holdings of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, streetTRACKS have surged from 464.37 tonnes at the end of June to 615.90 tonnes on December 13.
India's gold jewelry exports rose 13% in the first eight months of the financial year that started in April to $3.87 billion according to the Gem and Jewelry Export Promotion Council. In the financial year ended March, India exported around $5 billion worth of gold jewelry, half of which went to the US.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Sell blow 10150-170 for the target of 10080 and 10020 with stop loss at 10222
silver Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Sell at 18450-490 for the target of 18310, 18180 and 18050 with stop loss at 18652
Fading chances of further interest rate cut by Fed higher than expected consumer inflation data underpinned dollar on Friday. The dollar index rose 1.1% at 77.445, its highest level since Oct. 25. Higher inflation would deter Fed to make further cut in interest rates. The precious metal market seems focusing on the currency movements at this stage and thus ignored the higher inflation figures. Higher inflation is often seen as supportive for gold as it increases the investment demand for the metal as inflation hedge. Consumer prices rose 0.8% in November.
Investment demand for gold accelerated in the second half of 2007 after some weakness in first half. Gold holdings of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, streetTRACKS have surged from 464.37 tonnes at the end of June to 615.90 tonnes on December 13.
India's gold jewelry exports rose 13% in the first eight months of the financial year that started in April to $3.87 billion according to the Gem and Jewelry Export Promotion Council. In the financial year ended March, India exported around $5 billion worth of gold jewelry, half of which went to the US.
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold Feb: Sell blow 10150-170 for the target of 10080 and 10020 with stop loss at 10222
silver Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from over bought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 18-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver March: Sell at 18450-490 for the target of 18310, 18180 and 18050 with stop loss at 18652
OUT LOOK
February gold closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline but remains below the 10-day
moving average crossing at 806.80. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline,
November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 would
renew the rally off November's low. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to
confirm a breakout of the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 806.80 then last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is today's low crossing at
789.60 then the reaction low crossing at 783.00.
March silver closed higher on Monday and as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.960 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing
at 13.360 later this winter. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.544 would signal that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.544 then last Tuesday's high crossing at 14.975. First
support is today's low crossing at 13.640 then October's low crossing at 13.360.
January crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook
in the market. If January renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at .9768 is the next upside target. A close below
the reaction low crossing at .8582 would renew the decline off November's high. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 92.10. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 94.85. First support is today's low crossing at 89.49
then the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8741.
January Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below
the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.161. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline
off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.422 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.161 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.422. First support is Today's low crossing at 6.914 then weekly
support crossing at 6.801.
moving average crossing at 806.80. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline,
November's low crossing at 780.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80 would
renew the rally off November's low. From a broad perspective, February gold needs to close above 855.00 or below 780.40 to
confirm a breakout of the late-fall trading range and point the direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the 20-day
moving average crossing at 806.80 then last Wednesday's high crossing at 822.80. First support is today's low crossing at
789.60 then the reaction low crossing at 783.00.
March silver closed higher on Monday and as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.960 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing
at 13.360 later this winter. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.544 would signal that a short-term low has
been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.544 then last Tuesday's high crossing at 14.975. First
support is today's low crossing at 13.640 then October's low crossing at 13.360.
January crude oil closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for
a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 90.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook
in the market. If January renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at .9768 is the next upside target. A close below
the reaction low crossing at .8582 would renew the decline off November's high. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 92.10. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 94.85. First support is today's low crossing at 89.49
then the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at .8741.
January Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below
the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.161. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline
off November's high, weekly support crossing at 6.801 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average
crossing at 7.422 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 7.161 then the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.422. First support is Today's low crossing at 6.914 then weekly
support crossing at 6.801.
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