SAFETRADE CALLS

GOLD

now as long support of 11850 & 11690, most likely to test 12300 in coming days. for the day buy only abv 11120 S/L 12100 and T/p 12160-175 OR sell below 11940 S/L 11960 and T/p 11900-11860 (any time close above 12175/ 12400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11690/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)

SILVER


our T/p = 23850 exact achieved on buy abv 23425 and we book profit on sell below 23000-22950/22750, for the day buy only abv 23800-850 S/L 23725 and T/p 23950-24000/sustain abv uprally sharp test 24300 atleast OR sell below 23500 S/L 23580 and T/p 23400-350/ 250 (any time close below 22550/ 22050/21325-250/ 20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23850-24000/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on buy abv 4380, for the day buy only abv 4490 S/L 4470 and T/p 4520-40/close abv 4490 test 4600-4650 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 4370-72 S/L 4360 and T/p 4400-4420(now crude need to close above 4490 for bullish rally while close below 4310/ 4225/4115/3985-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

book profit on buy abv 345, for the day buy only abv 352 S/L 350.5 and T/p 353.5-354/close abv 354 test 365-368 atleast in coming days OR buy ard 344.5-345 S/L 344 and T/p 347-348.5(upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 338.5/327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

MCXARUN
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longview

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL

LIKELY TO TEST $ 945 - 952 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 938

SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 18.50/18.80 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.25

CRUDE OIL
LIKELY TO TEST 4480-4500 UPTO 4600 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 4430, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 4260 DOWN TREND AGAIN(MAY)

COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60/365 UPTO 368-70 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE
# ABOVE 354, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 338/327/310 BEARISH RALLY AGAIN(APRIL)

SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 24500-600 UPTO 25000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 23850-24000, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 22550 DOWN RALLY AGAIN(MAY)

ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 125-26/128-29 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 122.5, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 116.5 DOWN TREND AGAIN(APRIL)

LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 123-126 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 120.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 114/109.5/107.5 DOWN RALLY SHARP(APRIL)

MCXARUN
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comex gold intraday

Gold bounced back yesterday, along with oil prices that rose to new record high, while the dollar weakened against the major currencies.



Crude oil prices were lifted higher by the weekly inventory update from US Energy Department released yesterday, which showed a surprise rise in the nation’s crude inventories. As per the report, US crude inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended April 4. The broad expectation had been an increase in the stockpiles.



However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposal to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold from its reserves, which is currently valued at more than $13 billion, weighs on the traders’ sentiments in the bullion.



International spot gold traded in the range $902.80 - $934.70 and last quoted at $933.80 ($915.00).



The Dollar remained vulnerable against major currencies. The pressure on the greenback persisted after the release of latest Housing and Employment data from the US.



The market is awaiting interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both due on Thursday. While the ECB is widely expected to again leave its key interest rate on hold at 4%, the BoE is likely to lower its benchmark rate by another quarter of a percent from 5.25 percent.



Also, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March gave a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.



The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) pending home sales index for February fell 1.9 percent to 84.6 from 86.2 in the previous month.



According to the release from US Labor Department on Friday, non-farm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March.



Also, the unemployment rate in the US rose to 5.1% in March, the highest since September 2005.

Crude oil May in NYMEX traded as high as $112.21, a fresh all-time high, and settled at $110.82 ($108.50).

OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri on Sunday had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.

Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $906.70 – $939.50 and closed at $937.30 ($918.70).


DGCX Gold June

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 933; bearish below $ 928


MCXARUN
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4439 BEARISH BELOW 4420

GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 12017 BEARISH BELOW 11980

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 23462 BEARISH BELOW 23370

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 348.60 BEARISH BELOW 347.50

LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 117.70 BEARISH BELOW 117

NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1173 BEARISH BELOW 1167

ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 94.30 BEARISH BELOW 93.70

MCXARUN
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Basemetals intraday

Major Economic Data:

- Wholesale sales in February surprised economists by falling the largest amount since January 2007, while inventories piled up, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in yet another weak report for the US economy. Sales dropped 0.8 percent, the largest decrease since January 2007 while inventories increased 1.1 percent in the month.

- The Commerce Department also downwardly revised January sales to a 2.3 percent increase and upwardly revised inventories to a 1.3 percent increase. February’s drop in sales was led by automobile and electrical sales, which fell 1.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. Furniture sales fell by 4.6 percent, the largest fall since December 2002. Hardware sales also fell significantly, by 3.9 percent, the largest drop since June 2001.

Impact:Data is slightly negative for US Economy and US dollar, which have a negative impact on base metal prices.

Copper

- Copper advanced in London to within less than 1 percent of a record as the weakening dollar boosted demand for commodities as a hedge against further declines in the currency. MCX Copper April also traded bullish following bullion and energy and positive trading at LME/COMEX



China

- This year's 27 percent gain may slow imports into China, the world's largest user of the metal. Imports of refined copper into the country fell 5.8 percent in the first two months from a year earlier, according to the latest customs report. LME-monitored copper stockpiles in South Korea, the nearest exchange warehouse to China, climbed 7 percent this month to 53,750 metric tons, the highest since Feb. 5.

- Purchases of so-called concentrate, or processed ore containing copper, may rise to 5.4 million metric tons from 4.5 million tons in 2007 as China expands in smelting, said Simon Collins, director of Trafigura Trading Shanghai Co., a unit of Trafigura. China would become the world's top buyer, surpassing Japan which bought 5.05 million tons last year.

- China's 11.4 percent economic growth in 2007, the fastest in 13 years, fueled demand for copper and pushed prices to a record $8,820 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on March 6. Investment in cities and highways has spread to the center and west of the world's most populous country, increasing consumption of metals for power, homes, factories and cars.



Mining

- The Mineworkers Union of Zambia and the National Union of Allied Workers have warned the dispute may lead to a strike, the Lusaka-based newspaper said. It didn't say what the unions' demands are.

- Power cuts or blackouts in Chile, the world's largest producing nation of the metal, may push copper above its record, said Allan Trench, head of copper research at consulting company CRU in London. If Chinese demand keeps rising and supplies are disrupted, copper may jump to $10,000 a ton, he said.

- Kansanshi Copper Mine Plc declared a dispute with workers after labor-unions rejected the company's offer to increase wages by 15 percent, The Post reported, citing Len Heyneke, a company official.



Demand

- Rio Tinto Group, the world's third- largest mining company, said global demand for copper will grow 4 percent a year for a decade or more led by sales to China.

- China, the world's biggest copper consumer, may increase imports of ore used to make the metal by 20 percent to a record this year, said Trafigura Beheer BV, the country's top supplier.

- China's expanding economy boosted consumption of metals as the world's most populous nation built more roads, power grids and port facilities. Inadequate mine supplies at home may encourage China to raise ore imports by 20 percent this year, said Trafigura Beheer BV, the country's top supplier.



Supply

- Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, may increase output by 29 percent in three years, Chile's mining minister said. Codelco may boost production to 2.2 million metric tons by 2011 from about 1.7 million tons this year, Mining Minister Santiago Gonzalez, who is also the chairman of the state-run copper producer, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview in Santiago.

MCX Copper (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 354.67 levels. If market breaches 354.67 may see prices to take further upside towards 360.33/368.67 levels. However if it holds back below 346.33 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.67, 332.33 and 326.67

Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 347 Target 354, 358 and 365 Stop loss 340.60



Nickel



- MCX Nickel April prices gained following other base metals, bullion and energy. Market was up by almost 2% following LME movement. Crude oil and Gold rose by 2% on weak dollar.

- Merrill Lynch & Co. revised down its nickel forecast by 3.8 percent to $32,466 a ton, and zinc by 7.7 percent to $2,606 a ton, citing rising stockpiles of the metals in London Metals Exchange- registered warehouses during the first quarter. Demand for both metals will improve this year, Merrill said.

- LME Inventory was reduced by 6MT to 52068MT, was not having much impact on Nickel prices.



MCX Nickel (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1218 levels. If market breaches 1218 may see prices to take further upside towards 1247 levels. However if it holds back below 1168 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1147 and 1120



Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Buy at 1170 Target 1205 and 1218 Stop loss at 1162



Zinc

- MCX Zinc April traded positive following other base metals, Bullion and energy prices.

- Zinc stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to the highest in 17 months. Zinc inventory jumped 1,825 metric tons, or 1.5 percent, to 127,250 tons, the LME said today in a daily report, the highest since Oct. 17, 2006.

- Aluminium, copper and gold price forecasts for this year were raised by Merrill Lynch & Co. because of a weakening dollar and supply constraints. The bank revised down its Zinc forecast by 7.7 percent to $2,606 a ton, citing rising stockpiles of the metals in London Metals Exchange- registered warehouses during the first quarter. Demand for both metals will improve this year, Merrill said.



MCX Zinc (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 95.03 levels. If market breaches 95.03 may see prices to take further upside towards 96.07/97.33 levels. However if it holds back below 93.77 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 92.73, 91.47 and 90.43

Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Buy at 94 Target 96 and 98 Stop loss at 93.77



Aluminium

- MCX Aluminium April remains slightly high following other base metals, bullion and energy prices gained by 4% following LME prices. .

- Aluminium, copper and gold price forecasts for this year were raised by Merrill Lynch & Co. because of a weakening dollar and supply constraints. Aluminium will average $2,757 a metric ton in 2008, 6.6 percent higher than the bank's previous estimate, Merrill analysts including Daniel Hynes in London wrote in a report published yesterday. Merrill raised its gold forecast to $987 an ounce, a 12 percent increase.

- Dubai Aluminium Co., a United Arab Emirates aluminium producer that's building the world's largest smelter in Abu Dhabi, said 2007 profit rose 35 percent after it raised production capacity.Profit for the year rose to 1.9 billion dirhams ($520 million) from 1.4 billion dirhams in 2006, the company said in an e-mailed statement today. The government-owned company said it raised production almost 13 percent in 2007 to 890,000 tons.

- China's state-owned aluminum giant Chinalco said Wednesday it is looking to buy more mining assets, especially copper, at a time when prices for the red metal are high and demand is surging.



MCX Aluminium (April) Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123 levels. If market breaches 123, it may see prices to take further upside towards 125/128 levels. However if it holds back below 118 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 115 and 113

Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123, 125 and 128 Stop loss at 115

MCXARUN
9994500540