GOLD
book profit on buy abv 12810-15/835/ 875, fresh buy abv 12960 S/L 12940 and T/p 13000 atleast upto 13050 OR buy ard 12730-40 S/L 12725 and T/p 12780-800/840, only sustain fall below 12515 & 12375 bearish rally (any time close above 12960 bullish while close below 12515/12375/12150/11875/11575 -475/ 11300/10950-900/10500/10050/9850/ 9575 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 26050, for the day buy abv 26700 S/L 26600 and T/p 26800-850/27000/27150/new uprally OR buy ard 25730-750 S/L 25700 and T/p 25900-26050 upto 26200 (any time close below 25150-24850/23090/21990/ 21250/20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 26850/ 27150 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 4340/4360, for the day buy only abv 4410 S/L 4395 and T/p 4430-60 upto 4495 OR sell below 4300 S/L 4320 and T/p 4280-50/4210/ 4180/60 (our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/ 4310/4360 in Mar contract) (now crude need to close above 4460 for bullish rally while close below 4150/4070/ 3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
we book profit on buy last, for the day buy only abv 343.5 S/L 341.5 and T/p 344.5/347-48/351/354/sustain abv uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days OR sell only below 334.5 S/L 336 and T/p 333.5-332/327 atleast upto 324.5/322.5/down rally (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/281/ 267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
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Friday, March 14, 2008
Bullion intraday
Major Headline:
· Gold futures hit $1,000 an ounce for the first time Thursday, pushed past the benchmark by the sinking dollar and record crude oil prices.
· The dollar fell below 100 yen during Asian trading Thursday, its weakest level against the Japanese currency in 12 years. The dollar also dropped to all-time lows against the euro.
· Disappointing U.S. retail sales data and more bad news from the financial sector pushed the greenback to new lows against several major currencies, dropping below 100 yen for the first time since 1995. The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against six of the world's major currencies, fell 0.8% to 71.85, and hit an all-time low of 71.795 in intraday trading.
· Gold also drew support from the recent spike in oil prices, which stoked inflation fears and prompted investors to buy the precious metal to hedge against inflation.
· The price still doesn't match the all-time high of $850 in 1980, if that price is adjusted for inflation. An $850 ounce of gold then would be worth $2,177 in today's dollars. The $1,000 an ounce price, though, is still a milestone and a telling sign that investors are continuing to abandon the dollar. Gold has been pushing up against the $1,000 an ounce mark for weeks, mainly because of the weaker dollar. Interest rate cuts - and the prospect of more on the way - have weakened the currency so much that foreign investors can buy dollar-based commodities like gold and oil more cheaply.
· The dollar's decline and the boost in the price of oil price merely added the extra push.
· The Federal Reserve's meeting next week could provide more encouragement for gold prices since the Fed is widely believed to be considering cutting interest rates again. Another rate cut could reduce the dollar's value further, making gold an even better investment.
· India spot gold hits fresh record highs, breaches 13,000-rupee mark, neither jewelers nor consumers are comfortable buying the yellow metal at such elevated prices levels, There was buying seen when gold corrected to 960 usd levels but demand has dived again
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12830 Target 12945 and 13050 Stop loss at 12795
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy at 26100 Target 26650 and 26790 Stop loss 25980
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· Gold futures hit $1,000 an ounce for the first time Thursday, pushed past the benchmark by the sinking dollar and record crude oil prices.
· The dollar fell below 100 yen during Asian trading Thursday, its weakest level against the Japanese currency in 12 years. The dollar also dropped to all-time lows against the euro.
· Disappointing U.S. retail sales data and more bad news from the financial sector pushed the greenback to new lows against several major currencies, dropping below 100 yen for the first time since 1995. The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against six of the world's major currencies, fell 0.8% to 71.85, and hit an all-time low of 71.795 in intraday trading.
· Gold also drew support from the recent spike in oil prices, which stoked inflation fears and prompted investors to buy the precious metal to hedge against inflation.
· The price still doesn't match the all-time high of $850 in 1980, if that price is adjusted for inflation. An $850 ounce of gold then would be worth $2,177 in today's dollars. The $1,000 an ounce price, though, is still a milestone and a telling sign that investors are continuing to abandon the dollar. Gold has been pushing up against the $1,000 an ounce mark for weeks, mainly because of the weaker dollar. Interest rate cuts - and the prospect of more on the way - have weakened the currency so much that foreign investors can buy dollar-based commodities like gold and oil more cheaply.
· The dollar's decline and the boost in the price of oil price merely added the extra push.
· The Federal Reserve's meeting next week could provide more encouragement for gold prices since the Fed is widely believed to be considering cutting interest rates again. Another rate cut could reduce the dollar's value further, making gold an even better investment.
· India spot gold hits fresh record highs, breaches 13,000-rupee mark, neither jewelers nor consumers are comfortable buying the yellow metal at such elevated prices levels, There was buying seen when gold corrected to 960 usd levels but demand has dived again
MCX Gold Apr
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Gold April: Buy at 12830 Target 12945 and 13050 Stop loss at 12795
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Silver May: Buy at 26100 Target 26650 and 26790 Stop loss 25980
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Energy intraday
Weekly Inventory Data:
· The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 86 billion cubic feet last week to 1.398 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 10% from a year ago.
Major Headline:
· Oil prices on Thursday hit a record high above $110 a barrel as investors fled the tumbling dollar that fell to new lows against the euro and a 12-year low versus the yen.
· The greenback's decline has played a role in a surge in crude futures, which have hit record territory in 11 of the past 12 sessions, despite the fact that crude supplies have risen 10.2 percent since early January.
· The euro rose as high as $1.5625 before falling back to $1.5592. InAsia, the dollar briefly slumped to 99.75 yen before creeping back up to 100.27 yen.
· Oil prices initially fell Wednesday inNew York trading after the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said crude supplies rose 6.2 million barrels last week, more than three times the 1.6 million barrels forecast by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But buyers quickly returned to the market.
· The EIA also reported that gasoline supplies rose 1.7 million barrels last week, well above the expected 300,000 barrel increase, and distillate supplies dropped 1.2 million barrels, less than the expected 2 million barrel decline.
· It was the eighth increase in crude supplies in nine weeks, putting oil inventories back on a growth track after a one-week decline. Meanwhile, forecasters including the Energy Department, the International Energy Agency and OPEC have consistently reduced their demand growth predictions for this year.
· Wednesday's EIA report offered more evidence demand is falling: Gasoline consumption fell 0.7 percent last week compared to the same week last year.
· Normally, gasoline consumption grows about 1.5 percent year-over-year, just to keep pace with population growth.
· Many analysts argue that current oil prices can't be justified by the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals. Yet evidence of weak demand amid growing supplies has not stopped oil prices from rising in the past, particularly when the dollar is falling.
MCX Crude Oil April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4350 Target 4420 and 4445 Stop loss 4315
MCX Natural gas April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 408 Target 416 and 419 Stop loss 404.20
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· The U.S. Department of Energy said that underground supplies of natural gas were down 86 billion cubic feet last week to 1.398 trillion cubic feet. Supplies are now down 10% from a year ago.
Major Headline:
· Oil prices on Thursday hit a record high above $110 a barrel as investors fled the tumbling dollar that fell to new lows against the euro and a 12-year low versus the yen.
· The greenback's decline has played a role in a surge in crude futures, which have hit record territory in 11 of the past 12 sessions, despite the fact that crude supplies have risen 10.2 percent since early January.
· The euro rose as high as $1.5625 before falling back to $1.5592. InAsia, the dollar briefly slumped to 99.75 yen before creeping back up to 100.27 yen.
· Oil prices initially fell Wednesday inNew York trading after the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said crude supplies rose 6.2 million barrels last week, more than three times the 1.6 million barrels forecast by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. But buyers quickly returned to the market.
· The EIA also reported that gasoline supplies rose 1.7 million barrels last week, well above the expected 300,000 barrel increase, and distillate supplies dropped 1.2 million barrels, less than the expected 2 million barrel decline.
· It was the eighth increase in crude supplies in nine weeks, putting oil inventories back on a growth track after a one-week decline. Meanwhile, forecasters including the Energy Department, the International Energy Agency and OPEC have consistently reduced their demand growth predictions for this year.
· Wednesday's EIA report offered more evidence demand is falling: Gasoline consumption fell 0.7 percent last week compared to the same week last year.
· Normally, gasoline consumption grows about 1.5 percent year-over-year, just to keep pace with population growth.
· Many analysts argue that current oil prices can't be justified by the market's underlying supply and demand fundamentals. Yet evidence of weak demand amid growing supplies has not stopped oil prices from rising in the past, particularly when the dollar is falling.
MCX Crude Oil April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4350 Target 4420 and 4445 Stop loss 4315
MCX Natural gas April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Recommendations:
MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 408 Target 416 and 419 Stop loss 404.20
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Basemetals intraday
MajorUS Data:
· The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .6% in February, weaker than expected. Excluding autos, sales were down .2%.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were unchanged last week at 353,000.
Major Headline:
· Copper, little changed in New York, may gain for the second straight day as a slumping dollar boosts the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.
· The dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time since 1995 and dropped to a record against the euro today. Copper, traded in dollars, surged 26 percent this year before today, partly on
demand for metals as a store of value.
· The prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs may continue to weaken the currency, Zeman of LaSalle said. Trading in interest- rate futures shows a 98 percent chance the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate to 2.25 percent in its next policy announcement on March 18.
· Copper pared earlier gains after a report showed U.S. retail sales fell in February, signaling the economic slump is worsening. The U.S. is the second-biggest copper user after China.
· BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia halted all deliveries after a 22-day
strike depleted stockpiles, a union official said.
· Union officials met with Social Protection Minister Diego Palacio after the company refused to hold talks, union President Roger Herrera said today in a phone interview from the mine in the northern province of Cordoba. The miners began striking Feb. 27 to demand increased hiring to replace employees who have left.
· Aluminum declined in London as stockpiles advanced to almost a four-year high, indicating weak demand in the U.S., the world's second-largest consumer and producer of the metal. Copper also fell. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose 23,775 tons, or 2.5 percent, to 987,325 tons, the exchange said in a daily report, the highest since June 17, 2004.
· Tin climbed to a record for a third day in London, leading gains in all metals, after China, the
world's largest producer of the metal, reported a drop in output.
· Tin production fell 16 percent in the first two months from a year ago, China's National Bureau of Statistics said today in a statement. The metal has advanced 21 percent this year as China and Indonesia restricted exports.
LME Inventory update (13 March, 2008)
alumi +23775
coppe -1025
nickel -54
lead -25
zinc -200
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 337 Target 343 and 349 Stop loss 334.50
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 105 Target 108 and 110 Stop loss 103.10
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1280 Target 1310 and 1330 Stop loss 1265
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 124 Target 128 and 130 Stop loss 122.50
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· The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales were down .6% in February, weaker than expected. Excluding autos, sales were down .2%.
· The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were unchanged last week at 353,000.
Major Headline:
· Copper, little changed in New York, may gain for the second straight day as a slumping dollar boosts the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.
· The dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time since 1995 and dropped to a record against the euro today. Copper, traded in dollars, surged 26 percent this year before today, partly on
demand for metals as a store of value.
· The prospect of lower U.S. borrowing costs may continue to weaken the currency, Zeman of LaSalle said. Trading in interest- rate futures shows a 98 percent chance the Federal Reserve will reduce its benchmark interest rate to 2.25 percent in its next policy announcement on March 18.
· Copper pared earlier gains after a report showed U.S. retail sales fell in February, signaling the economic slump is worsening. The U.S. is the second-biggest copper user after China.
· BHP Billiton Ltd.'s Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia halted all deliveries after a 22-day
strike depleted stockpiles, a union official said.
· Union officials met with Social Protection Minister Diego Palacio after the company refused to hold talks, union President Roger Herrera said today in a phone interview from the mine in the northern province of Cordoba. The miners began striking Feb. 27 to demand increased hiring to replace employees who have left.
· Aluminum declined in London as stockpiles advanced to almost a four-year high, indicating weak demand in the U.S., the world's second-largest consumer and producer of the metal. Copper also fell. Inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose 23,775 tons, or 2.5 percent, to 987,325 tons, the exchange said in a daily report, the highest since June 17, 2004.
· Tin climbed to a record for a third day in London, leading gains in all metals, after China, the
world's largest producer of the metal, reported a drop in output.
· Tin production fell 16 percent in the first two months from a year ago, China's National Bureau of Statistics said today in a statement. The metal has advanced 21 percent this year as China and Indonesia restricted exports.
LME Inventory update (13 March, 2008)
alumi +23775
coppe -1025
nickel -54
lead -25
zinc -200
MCX Copper April
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Copper April: Buy at 337 Target 343 and 349 Stop loss 334.50
MCX Zinc March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Zinc March: Buy at 105 Target 108 and 110 Stop loss 103.10
MCX Nickel March
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Nickel March: Buy at 1280 Target 1310 and 1330 Stop loss 1265
MCX Lead Feb
Technical Outlook:
Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Recommendations:
MCX Lead March: Buy at 124 Target 128 and 130 Stop loss 122.50
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outlook
April gold was higher overnight as it rebounds off support marked by the 10-day moving average
crossing at 978.40. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter's rally, psychological resistance crossing
at 1000.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high
crossing at 995.20 then, psychological resistance crossing at 1000.00. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 961.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10.
May silver was higher overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at
20.116 as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 19.169 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
May renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 21.340 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 20.570. Second resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 21.325. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.280 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 19.169.
May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 380.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 416.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.44. Second resistance
is last Thursday's high crossing at 402.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 375.00
then the reaction low crossing at 368.50.
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low into uncharted
territory, upside targets will hard to project. Although, this winter's trading range projects a
possible rally to the 113.20 area before a correction is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.20. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.24.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 10.185 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
9.392 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's
high crossing at 10.139. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 10.185. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.738. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.392.
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crossing at 978.40. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher
prices are possible near-term. If April extends this winter's rally, psychological resistance crossing
at 1000.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10
would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high
crossing at 995.20 then, psychological resistance crossing at 1000.00. First support is Monday's
low crossing at 961.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 959.10.
May silver was higher overnight and is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at
20.116 as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to
bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day
moving average crossing at 19.169 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If
May renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 21.340 is the next upside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 20.570. Second resistance is last Thursday's high
crossing at 21.325. First support is Monday's low crossing at 19.280 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 19.169.
May copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the
RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 380.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 416.00 is the next
upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 386.44. Second resistance
is last Thursday's high crossing at 402.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 375.00
then the reaction low crossing at 368.50.
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low into uncharted
territory, upside targets will hard to project. Although, this winter's trading range projects a
possible rally to the 113.20 area before a correction is possible. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First
resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 110.20. First support is the 10-day moving average
crossing at 105.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.24.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's rally.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's rally, monthly resistance
crossing at 10.185 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at
9.392 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's
high crossing at 10.139. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 10.185. First support
is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.738. Second support is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 9.392.
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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4432BEARISH BELOW 4412
GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12865 BEARISH BELOW 12822
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 26345 BEARISH BELOW 26240
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.60 BEARISH BELOW 338.60
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.60BEARISH BELOW 125.00
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1303 BEARISH BELOW 1295
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.95 BEARISH BELOW 104.40
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GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12865 BEARISH BELOW 12822
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 26345 BEARISH BELOW 26240
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.60 BEARISH BELOW 338.60
LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.60BEARISH BELOW 125.00
NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1303 BEARISH BELOW 1295
ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 104.95 BEARISH BELOW 104.40
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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Next week we have Easter Vacation and the Fed meeting. The Fed will not disappoint the markets and may cut interest rates by 0.75%. Trading volumes will fall next week. However the current market situation will prevent fund managers to be lazy as the market circumstances are changing every day. Some of the investment instruments have either hit historical highs or historical lows and investors asking themselves whether to exit the highs or invest in lows. For the rest of the March the US dollar and movement of US equity markets will be the key for almost all investments.
Some of the central bankers are continuously speaking on the higher volatility and dollar depreciation but do nothing. Markets have learned to live with the comments from various central banks over the pace of the US dollars depreciation and they will not get unnerved by the same as they know that central bankers will do not anything. For the central bankers “words speak louder than actions”. It remains to be seen as what will be the tolerable level of euro and yen against the US dollar by the ECB and bank of Japan.
Gold futures finally tested $1000. $1000 is nothing but psychological. One should expect greater volatility in gold next week on position squaring and rebuilding. Base metals will be volatile as they are long term bullish and short term bearish as per the technical charts.
NICKEL – LME 3 MONTH
It is bullish over $30214 and as long as nickel holds $30214 it will target $34000 and $37000 in short term.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0
Crude oil fails to break $112-$114 zone by next week then it will fall back to $106 and $100.0
MCXARUN
9994500540
Some of the central bankers are continuously speaking on the higher volatility and dollar depreciation but do nothing. Markets have learned to live with the comments from various central banks over the pace of the US dollars depreciation and they will not get unnerved by the same as they know that central bankers will do not anything. For the central bankers “words speak louder than actions”. It remains to be seen as what will be the tolerable level of euro and yen against the US dollar by the ECB and bank of Japan.
Gold futures finally tested $1000. $1000 is nothing but psychological. One should expect greater volatility in gold next week on position squaring and rebuilding. Base metals will be volatile as they are long term bullish and short term bearish as per the technical charts.
NICKEL – LME 3 MONTH
It is bullish over $30214 and as long as nickel holds $30214 it will target $34000 and $37000 in short term.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0
Crude oil fails to break $112-$114 zone by next week then it will fall back to $106 and $100.0
MCXARUN
9994500540
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