GOLD
for the day buy only abv 11935 S/L 11915 and T/p 11965-12000/upto 12100 OR sell below 11850 S/L 11875 and T/p 11800/11760-730 (any time close above 11930-12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11525/11150/ 11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 22775-825/ 23000, for the day buy abv 23050 S/L 22990 and T/p 23125-200/23350-475 OR sell below 22800 S/L 22880 and T/p 11725-640/22550 (any time close below 22300/21575-500/20400/ 19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23200/ 23750/24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 4875/5000/5110/ 5160-180, for the day buy only abv 5250 S/L 5232 and T/p 5275-5300 where seen good resist OR sell below 5160 S/L 5180 and T/p 5125/5085-70/down rally 4875 atleast upto 4800-4775 where strong support seen again (now crude need to close above 5250 for bullish rally while close below 5070/4850/4695/ 4475/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on sell below 343.5-342.5, for the day sell only below 336 S/L 337.5 and T/p 334/32/330/down rally sharp OR buy abv 344 S/L 343 S/L 346-349/350.5/uprally towards 353.5/356-358.5/361.5/bullish (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 336/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Monday, May 12, 2008
comex gold outlook
Gold Outlook
Gold prices extended gains to close slightly higher on Friday. Oil’s rally to new highs and weakness in the dollar supported the movement.
International spot gold traded in the range $870.00 - $889.70 and last quoted at $883.90 ($882.30).
Dollar declined against the euro on Friday on renewed credit market concerns after the result of American International Group, the world's biggest insurer, which posted its largest ever quarterly loss. The result dimmed the optimism about the recovery in the economy despite data showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in March.
The Euro strengthened against the dollar after the European Central Bank announced the decision to keep its interest rate unchanged in a policy meeting yesterday. The ECB decided against a rate cut giving due consideration to the high inflation, which is currently above the target rate.
But a release from Eurostat last week had shown Euro zone retail sales fell 0.4 percent in March from February, down 1.6 percent year-on-year.
In a slightly positive signal from the Labor sector, the initial jobless claims in US fell by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 3, according to the release by US Labor Department.
The Labor Department had reported last week that the productivity of the US non-farm business sector rose at a 2.2% annual rate during the first months of the year.
Unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector also underpin the dollar. According to the data released early last week, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.
But a report from National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales in the US fell 1.0% in March, an indication of continuing weakness in the housing market.
Oil prices extended the bullish rally and crossed above $126 a barrel on Friday, for the first time ever, on global supply concerns.
But the weekly update from the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies rose 5.7 million barrels to 325.6 million for the week ended May 2.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $126.27 and closed at $125.96 ($123.69).
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $890.70 – $872.00 and closed at $887.50 ($883.80).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 887; bearish below $ 882
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold prices extended gains to close slightly higher on Friday. Oil’s rally to new highs and weakness in the dollar supported the movement.
International spot gold traded in the range $870.00 - $889.70 and last quoted at $883.90 ($882.30).
Dollar declined against the euro on Friday on renewed credit market concerns after the result of American International Group, the world's biggest insurer, which posted its largest ever quarterly loss. The result dimmed the optimism about the recovery in the economy despite data showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in March.
The Euro strengthened against the dollar after the European Central Bank announced the decision to keep its interest rate unchanged in a policy meeting yesterday. The ECB decided against a rate cut giving due consideration to the high inflation, which is currently above the target rate.
But a release from Eurostat last week had shown Euro zone retail sales fell 0.4 percent in March from February, down 1.6 percent year-on-year.
In a slightly positive signal from the Labor sector, the initial jobless claims in US fell by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 3, according to the release by US Labor Department.
The Labor Department had reported last week that the productivity of the US non-farm business sector rose at a 2.2% annual rate during the first months of the year.
Unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector also underpin the dollar. According to the data released early last week, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.
But a report from National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales in the US fell 1.0% in March, an indication of continuing weakness in the housing market.
Oil prices extended the bullish rally and crossed above $126 a barrel on Friday, for the first time ever, on global supply concerns.
But the weekly update from the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies rose 5.7 million barrels to 325.6 million for the week ended May 2.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $126.27 and closed at $125.96 ($123.69).
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $890.70 – $872.00 and closed at $887.50 ($883.80).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 887; bearish below $ 882
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Energy
Oil made a record high at $126.27 head of the weekend with no-one willing to sell into a rally that has little sign of easing as the market heads into the U.S. driving season in late May.
Prices have rallied for over a week to a series of record highs, the latest spike due to Goldman Sachs analysts this week, who predicted prices will rise as high as $150 to $200 a barrel within two years. That forecast has driven much of oil's gains in recent days, as well as a tight supply outlook and some rising demand.
The dollar, meanwhile, fell against the euro Friday, attracting investors who view commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper to investors overseas
Oil vaulted above the psychological 100-dollar mark last January and has since jumped above 110 and 120 dollars, as the market was also energised by the weak dollar and solid demand from Asian powerhouse economies China and India.
Prices continued to bolt higher on Friday after the OPEC cartel insisted the market was well supplied and driven by speculators.
The 13-member OPEC produces about 40 percent of the world's oil, with current output at about 32 million barrels per day. El-Badri also maintained OPEC's stance that oil-market volatility has been driven by financial market developments and the increased flow of speculative funds into oil futures.
The turmoil in some global equity markets and the considerable depreciation in the U.S. dollar have encouraged investors to seek better returns in commodities, particularly in the crude oil futures market, This has driven prices higher
Natural gas advanced as crude oil surged to a record and the euro climbed against the U.S. dollar. Oil touched $126.27 a barrel, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. The 15-nation currency versus the dollar today extended its gain from an eight-week low. Returns from investing in commodities have surged this year, led by natural gas, as investors sought alternatives to stocks.
Norway, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, said crude production in April fell from a month earlier. Output dropped to an average 2.097 million barrels a day from a revised 2.140 million in March
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5259 levels If market breaches 5259 may see prices to take further upside towards 5306 and 5378However if it holds back below 5140 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at5068 and 5021
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 5195 Target 5280 and 5325 Stop loss 5135
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 484.00 levels. If market breaches 484.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 490.00 and 499.00 however if it holds back below 469.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 460.00 and 454.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 479 Target 486 and 490 Stop loss at 473
MCXARUN
9994500540
Oil made a record high at $126.27 head of the weekend with no-one willing to sell into a rally that has little sign of easing as the market heads into the U.S. driving season in late May.
Prices have rallied for over a week to a series of record highs, the latest spike due to Goldman Sachs analysts this week, who predicted prices will rise as high as $150 to $200 a barrel within two years. That forecast has driven much of oil's gains in recent days, as well as a tight supply outlook and some rising demand.
The dollar, meanwhile, fell against the euro Friday, attracting investors who view commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper to investors overseas
Oil vaulted above the psychological 100-dollar mark last January and has since jumped above 110 and 120 dollars, as the market was also energised by the weak dollar and solid demand from Asian powerhouse economies China and India.
Prices continued to bolt higher on Friday after the OPEC cartel insisted the market was well supplied and driven by speculators.
The 13-member OPEC produces about 40 percent of the world's oil, with current output at about 32 million barrels per day. El-Badri also maintained OPEC's stance that oil-market volatility has been driven by financial market developments and the increased flow of speculative funds into oil futures.
The turmoil in some global equity markets and the considerable depreciation in the U.S. dollar have encouraged investors to seek better returns in commodities, particularly in the crude oil futures market, This has driven prices higher
Natural gas advanced as crude oil surged to a record and the euro climbed against the U.S. dollar. Oil touched $126.27 a barrel, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. The 15-nation currency versus the dollar today extended its gain from an eight-week low. Returns from investing in commodities have surged this year, led by natural gas, as investors sought alternatives to stocks.
Norway, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, said crude production in April fell from a month earlier. Output dropped to an average 2.097 million barrels a day from a revised 2.140 million in March
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5259 levels If market breaches 5259 may see prices to take further upside towards 5306 and 5378However if it holds back below 5140 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at5068 and 5021
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 5195 Target 5280 and 5325 Stop loss 5135
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 484.00 levels. If market breaches 484.00 may see prices to take further upside towards 490.00 and 499.00 however if it holds back below 469.00 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 460.00 and 454.00
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 479 Target 486 and 490 Stop loss at 473
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Base Metals
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports were down $2.6 billion in March, to $148.5 billion while imports were down $6.1 billion to $206.7 billion. The result was $58.2 billion of net imports, less than expected. The June U.S. dollar index closed down .44 at 73.22.
Key Economic Data Expected:
No major US Data expected today.
Copper
Copper headed for a second weekly drop inLondon as rising stockpiles indicatedChina, the world's largest user, slowed purchases because of near-record prices. Tin rose to an all-time high and lead fell to almost a one-year low.
Shanghai copper stockpiles rose for the first week in four, increasing 10 percent, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in a report today on its Web site. Inventories, based on a survey of five warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, climbed by 4,646 metric tons to 51,119 tons this week, the exchange said.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 11150 MT to 121275 MT
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position inNew York copper futures in the week ended May 6, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 7,194 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 630 contracts, or 10 percent,from a week earlier.
Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, resumed full production at its Andina mine in central Chile for the first time since a strike shut it on April 16.Codelco's El Salvador mine, one of three affected by the walkout and related protests, still is operating at reduced capacity. El Teniente, the third affected mine, is running at full output, a company official said in a telephone interview inSantiago today.
Peru's miners suspended a national strike planned for May 12 to give Congress time to pass legislation on a greater share of profits, higher pensions and rights for subcontracted workers, a union spokesman said today.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 335.6 If market breaches below 335.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 331.2 and 326.1,However if it holds back above 345.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 350.2 and 354.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 341-340 Target 336 and 332 SL 345.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel May feel towards the low of 1101 on Friday and closed at 1115 following a fall in Lead and Copper prices.
Jinchuan Group Co.,Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered the price of the refined metal because of slowing demand for use in stainless steel. The price was cut by 7,000 yuan, or 3 percent, to 228,000 yuan ($32,560) a metric ton effective today, according to a statement on the Web site of theGansu, western China-based company.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –132 MT to 50898 MT
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1095.3 If market breaches below 1095.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 1075.7 and 1050.3,However if it holds back above 1140.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1165.7 and 1185.3
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1120-23 Target 1095 and 1080 SL 1138
Zinc
MCX Zinc may drop towards the low of 89.15 following bearish sentiment in at LME and increased warehouse stock at LME and SHFE. Market pushed towards more down due to heavy fall in Lead prices.
Zinc stockpiles added 70 tons to 70,384 tons, based on a survey of seven warehouses inShanghai.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was 25 MT to 125750 MT
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 87.2 and 85.2,However if it holds back above 91.7 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.7 and 94.9
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91-90.50 Target 88.50 and 87 SL 91.80
Lead
MCX Lead dropped towards the low of 91.85 following bearish sentiment at LME and other metals. LME inventory also supported the move.
Lead fell to the lowest in almost one year on the London Metal Exchange. The contract for delivery in three months declined as much as $115, or 5 percent, to $2,205 a metric ton, the lowest intra day price sinceMay 29, 2007. It traded at $2,225 a ton
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 175 MT to 58600 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 89.6 If market breaches below 89.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 87.4 and 83.1,However if it holds back above 96.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 100.4 and 102.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 93-93.50 Target 89 and 88 SL 94.80
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium remained negative following bearish movement at LME and other metals. Market treaded towards the low of 116.90 at stockpile at SHFE increased heavily last week.
Stockpiles of aluminium rose 0.8 percent, or 1,378 tons, to 182,196 tons, based on a survey of 11 warehouses inShanghai.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1250 MT to 1037100 MT
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 117.1 If market breaches below 117.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 115.9 and 114.8,However if it holds back above 119.4 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.5 and 121.7
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 115 SL 120.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports were down $2.6 billion in March, to $148.5 billion while imports were down $6.1 billion to $206.7 billion. The result was $58.2 billion of net imports, less than expected. The June U.S. dollar index closed down .44 at 73.22.
Key Economic Data Expected:
No major US Data expected today.
Copper
Copper headed for a second weekly drop inLondon as rising stockpiles indicatedChina, the world's largest user, slowed purchases because of near-record prices. Tin rose to an all-time high and lead fell to almost a one-year low.
Shanghai copper stockpiles rose for the first week in four, increasing 10 percent, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said in a report today on its Web site. Inventories, based on a survey of five warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, climbed by 4,646 metric tons to 51,119 tons this week, the exchange said.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 11150 MT to 121275 MT
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position inNew York copper futures in the week ended May 6, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 7,194 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 630 contracts, or 10 percent,from a week earlier.
Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, resumed full production at its Andina mine in central Chile for the first time since a strike shut it on April 16.Codelco's El Salvador mine, one of three affected by the walkout and related protests, still is operating at reduced capacity. El Teniente, the third affected mine, is running at full output, a company official said in a telephone interview inSantiago today.
Peru's miners suspended a national strike planned for May 12 to give Congress time to pass legislation on a greater share of profits, higher pensions and rights for subcontracted workers, a union spokesman said today.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 335.6 If market breaches below 335.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 331.2 and 326.1,However if it holds back above 345.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 350.2 and 354.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 341-340 Target 336 and 332 SL 345.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel May feel towards the low of 1101 on Friday and closed at 1115 following a fall in Lead and Copper prices.
Jinchuan Group Co.,Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered the price of the refined metal because of slowing demand for use in stainless steel. The price was cut by 7,000 yuan, or 3 percent, to 228,000 yuan ($32,560) a metric ton effective today, according to a statement on the Web site of theGansu, western China-based company.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –132 MT to 50898 MT
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1095.3 If market breaches below 1095.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 1075.7 and 1050.3,However if it holds back above 1140.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1165.7 and 1185.3
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1120-23 Target 1095 and 1080 SL 1138
Zinc
MCX Zinc may drop towards the low of 89.15 following bearish sentiment in at LME and increased warehouse stock at LME and SHFE. Market pushed towards more down due to heavy fall in Lead prices.
Zinc stockpiles added 70 tons to 70,384 tons, based on a survey of seven warehouses inShanghai.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was 25 MT to 125750 MT
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.4 If market breaches below 88.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 87.2 and 85.2,However if it holds back above 91.7 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.7 and 94.9
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91-90.50 Target 88.50 and 87 SL 91.80
Lead
MCX Lead dropped towards the low of 91.85 following bearish sentiment at LME and other metals. LME inventory also supported the move.
Lead fell to the lowest in almost one year on the London Metal Exchange. The contract for delivery in three months declined as much as $115, or 5 percent, to $2,205 a metric ton, the lowest intra day price sinceMay 29, 2007. It traded at $2,225 a ton
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 175 MT to 58600 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 89.6 If market breaches below 89.6 may see prices to take further correction towards 87.4 and 83.1,However if it holds back above 96.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 100.4 and 102.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 93-93.50 Target 89 and 88 SL 94.80
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium remained negative following bearish movement at LME and other metals. Market treaded towards the low of 116.90 at stockpile at SHFE increased heavily last week.
Stockpiles of aluminium rose 0.8 percent, or 1,378 tons, to 182,196 tons, based on a survey of 11 warehouses inShanghai.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1250 MT to 1037100 MT
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 117.1 If market breaches below 117.1 may see prices to take further correction towards 115.9 and 114.8,However if it holds back above 119.4 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.5 and 121.7
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119 Target 116 and 115 SL 120.40
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion
Gold rose on last week and headed for its first weekly advance in a month as record energy costs and a weaker dollar boosted demand for a hedge against inflation. Silver rose for a second day
The euro gained from an eight-week low against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation remains the bank's priority, signaling policy makers won't cut interest rates soon.
Record crude oil prices will help keep the precious metal supported as demand for a hedge against inflation may rise
Crude-oil futures reached $126.27 a barrel Friday, setting a record for the fifth straight session, and the dollar headed for a weekly loss against the euro. Gold has under performed oil and the euro since reaching a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17,when investors bought the metal as a haven against turmoil in financial markets
Gold rebounded mainly on the dollar's decline and we can see actual demand now after the precious metal declined more than 14 percent from a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 7,Gold seemed to be undervalued compared with oil and may try to test $930 an ounce in a few days.
The rupee declined 2.3 percent last week to 41.60 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the biggest weekly decline since May 1998,The rupee is the second-worst performer this year among Asia's 11 most-traded currencies as a 31 percent jump in the commodity's price raised concern that import costs will rise and widen the nation's current-account deficit
Indian spot gold rose 1.6 percent and closed above the 12,000-rupee mark on Friday, tracking overseas gains, but a weaker rupee kept domestic demand lacklustre. In London, gold rose as record oil prices stoked inflation jitters and as the dollar weakened against the euro. Gold moves in line with high oil prices as investors hedge against inflation and counter to the dollar as it is seen as an alternative asset.
U.S. Economy:
The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports were down $2.6 billion in March, to $148.5 billion while imports were down $6.1 billion to $206.7 billion. The result was $58.2 billion of net imports, less than expected. The June U.S. dollar index closed down .44 at 73.22.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1% in April with a net gain of 19,000 jobs, more than expected. Over the past year, 348,000 new jobs have been added to the economy. The June Canadian dollar closed up 1.10 cents at 99.32.
Canada's exports increased 1.6% in March, to C$40.1 billion while imports were down .3% to C$34.5 billion. The result was C$5.5 billion of net exports, the most since May of 2007.
The Reserve Bank of Australia said that it expects consumer prices to have an annual increase of 4.5% by the end of 2008, but then lessen to 3.25% sometime in 2009. The June Australian dollar was unchanged at 93.87
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12001 levels. If market breaches 12001may see prices to take further upside towards 12090and 12250 however if it holds back below 11752 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11592 and 11503
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 11835 Target11920 and 11990 Stoploss at11775
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 23274 levels. If market breaches 23274 may see prices to take further upside towards 23576 and 23976 however if it holds back below 22572 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22172 and 21870
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22780 Target 22950 and 23150 Stop loss at 22550
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold rose on last week and headed for its first weekly advance in a month as record energy costs and a weaker dollar boosted demand for a hedge against inflation. Silver rose for a second day
The euro gained from an eight-week low against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation remains the bank's priority, signaling policy makers won't cut interest rates soon.
Record crude oil prices will help keep the precious metal supported as demand for a hedge against inflation may rise
Crude-oil futures reached $126.27 a barrel Friday, setting a record for the fifth straight session, and the dollar headed for a weekly loss against the euro. Gold has under performed oil and the euro since reaching a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17,when investors bought the metal as a haven against turmoil in financial markets
Gold rebounded mainly on the dollar's decline and we can see actual demand now after the precious metal declined more than 14 percent from a record $1,032.70 an ounce on March 7,Gold seemed to be undervalued compared with oil and may try to test $930 an ounce in a few days.
The rupee declined 2.3 percent last week to 41.60 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the biggest weekly decline since May 1998,The rupee is the second-worst performer this year among Asia's 11 most-traded currencies as a 31 percent jump in the commodity's price raised concern that import costs will rise and widen the nation's current-account deficit
Indian spot gold rose 1.6 percent and closed above the 12,000-rupee mark on Friday, tracking overseas gains, but a weaker rupee kept domestic demand lacklustre. In London, gold rose as record oil prices stoked inflation jitters and as the dollar weakened against the euro. Gold moves in line with high oil prices as investors hedge against inflation and counter to the dollar as it is seen as an alternative asset.
U.S. Economy:
The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports were down $2.6 billion in March, to $148.5 billion while imports were down $6.1 billion to $206.7 billion. The result was $58.2 billion of net imports, less than expected. The June U.S. dollar index closed down .44 at 73.22.
Currencies update:
Statistics Canada said that Canada's unemployment rate increased from 6.0% to 6.1% in April with a net gain of 19,000 jobs, more than expected. Over the past year, 348,000 new jobs have been added to the economy. The June Canadian dollar closed up 1.10 cents at 99.32.
Canada's exports increased 1.6% in March, to C$40.1 billion while imports were down .3% to C$34.5 billion. The result was C$5.5 billion of net exports, the most since May of 2007.
The Reserve Bank of Australia said that it expects consumer prices to have an annual increase of 4.5% by the end of 2008, but then lessen to 3.25% sometime in 2009. The June Australian dollar was unchanged at 93.87
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 12001 levels. If market breaches 12001may see prices to take further upside towards 12090and 12250 however if it holds back below 11752 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11592 and 11503
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 11835 Target11920 and 11990 Stoploss at11775
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 23274 levels. If market breaches 23274 may see prices to take further upside towards 23576 and 23976 however if it holds back below 22572 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22172 and 21870
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22780 Target 22950 and 23150 Stop loss at 22550
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The US dollar has weakened against the yen but gained against the sterling last week. The US dollar was mixed against the euro as it gained but later recouped some of the losses. US retail sales and consumer prices index numbers will be the key for the weekly trend of the US dollar. Over the next few weeks the European Central Bank will be caught between the devil and the deep sea. The devil is inflation while the deep sea is growth. Eurozone growth should slowdown (even though marginal) over the coming months and the ECB will be under pressure to cut interest rates from member nations. It’s better to remain on the sidelines on the US dollar this week. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains in the short term.
Among the base metals lead continues to fall showing no signs of revival. Copper has been the driver for all the base metals. If copper follows the fall in zinc, lead and other base metals will fall at double the pace. In my view copper is safest to trade among the base metals while zinc and lead are for the high risk high return investor. Nickel is another great investment after copper among the base metals as it generally moves in one direction. Technically LME lead (3 months) falls below $2280 then $2100 and $1980 are the key supports. Lead is in a highly oversold zone.
Crude oil prices will once again be the key for global economy. It’s just a momentum market backed without any fundamentals. As long as the momentum continues crude oil will rise and will find investors on dips. But some day surely crude oil will go gold’s way. Gold has fallen from $1028 to $845. Gold fell only when retail investors converted their short positions into long positions and incurred a double loss. At the moment in my view retail investors are holding their short positions. Once they exit and convert into longs/start buying on dips, crude oil’s top will be formed sooner than later.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Gold is in a neutral zone and needs to break $906-$914 this week zone else it will fall to $859.10 and $842.80.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Among the base metals lead continues to fall showing no signs of revival. Copper has been the driver for all the base metals. If copper follows the fall in zinc, lead and other base metals will fall at double the pace. In my view copper is safest to trade among the base metals while zinc and lead are for the high risk high return investor. Nickel is another great investment after copper among the base metals as it generally moves in one direction. Technically LME lead (3 months) falls below $2280 then $2100 and $1980 are the key supports. Lead is in a highly oversold zone.
Crude oil prices will once again be the key for global economy. It’s just a momentum market backed without any fundamentals. As long as the momentum continues crude oil will rise and will find investors on dips. But some day surely crude oil will go gold’s way. Gold has fallen from $1028 to $845. Gold fell only when retail investors converted their short positions into long positions and incurred a double loss. At the moment in my view retail investors are holding their short positions. Once they exit and convert into longs/start buying on dips, crude oil’s top will be formed sooner than later.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Gold is in a neutral zone and needs to break $906-$914 this week zone else it will fall to $859.10 and $842.80.
MCXARUN
9994500540
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