comex gold outlook

Gold Outlook




Gold prices extended gains to close slightly higher on Friday. Oil’s rally to new highs and weakness in the dollar supported the movement.



International spot gold traded in the range $870.00 - $889.70 and last quoted at $883.90 ($882.30).



Dollar declined against the euro on Friday on renewed credit market concerns after the result of American International Group, the world's biggest insurer, which posted its largest ever quarterly loss. The result dimmed the optimism about the recovery in the economy despite data showing the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in March.



The Euro strengthened against the dollar after the European Central Bank announced the decision to keep its interest rate unchanged in a policy meeting yesterday. The ECB decided against a rate cut giving due consideration to the high inflation, which is currently above the target rate.



But a release from Eurostat last week had shown Euro zone retail sales fell 0.4 percent in March from February, down 1.6 percent year-on-year.



In a slightly positive signal from the Labor sector, the initial jobless claims in US fell by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000 in the week ended May 3, according to the release by US Labor Department.



The Labor Department had reported last week that the productivity of the US non-farm business sector rose at a 2.2% annual rate during the first months of the year.



Unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector also underpin the dollar. According to the data released early last week, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.



But a report from National Association of Realtors showed that pending home sales in the US fell 1.0% in March, an indication of continuing weakness in the housing market.



Oil prices extended the bullish rally and crossed above $126 a barrel on Friday, for the first time ever, on global supply concerns.



But the weekly update from the US Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said crude supplies rose 5.7 million barrels to 325.6 million for the week ended May 2.



Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $126.27 and closed at $125.96 ($123.69).



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $890.70 – $872.00 and closed at $887.50 ($883.80).





DGCX Gold June

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 887; bearish below $ 882

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