energy intraday

Energy: Global oil productions falls
12 June 2008 11:04:42
Crude oil raised more than $5 a barrel after a U.S. government report yesterday showed that inventories declined more than expected, increasing concern stockpiles may be strained during the summer driving season.

Prices also climbed because China's crude-oil imports jumped 25 percent last month from a year earlier as refiners boosted fuel production to meet higher demand in southwestern regions rattled by an earthquake. Imports rose to 16.2 million metric tons in May, and as tensions rose between Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, and the U.S.

Global oil production fell for the first time in five years in 2007 and reserves also declined as prices rose to records, British Petroleum cop said in its annual Statistical Review of World Energy. Crude oil production dropped 0.2 percent to 81.533 million barrels a day last year, from 81.659 million barrels a day in 2006, the London-based company said today. Proved reserves were 1,237.9 billion barrels at the end of last year, compared with a revised total of 1,239.5 billion barrels for 2006.

The US Energy Department (EIA) says motorists can expect gasoline prices to remain close to $4 a gallon through next year. Oil prices should remain well above $100 a barrel through 2009, and it’s likely to average $126 a barrel next year, $4 higher than this year. Gasoline prices are expected to peak at $4.15 a gallon in August, but won't go down much. The agency projects gasoline averaging $3.92 a gallon through 2009.

A meeting due June 22 in Saudi Arabia for the world's biggest oil producers and consumers to discuss record-high crude prices will be at head-of-state level, OPEC.

The OPEC maintains the oil market is well supplied and that current prices do not reflect market fundamentals of supply and demand. Saudi Arabia, a close Western ally, has come under huge U.S. pressure to boost output to help end volatility in world markets that saw benchmark crude prices in New York jump close to 140 dollars a barrel last Friday.

Natural gas in New York advanced amid speculation supply gains will be below average for the week because a heat wave spurred demand and as crude oil surged. Inventories of gas advanced 90 billion cubic feet in the week ended June 6, 8 billion below the five-year average.

MCX Crude Oil June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 5950 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 6031 and 6178, If market sustains below 5760. Can see a further fall towards 5722 and 5575

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5638 Target 5695 and 5780 Stoploss 5585

MCX Natural gas June - Technical Outlook:

Tech The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Technicals have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 547 if sustain above this level can see a rally towards 553 and 560 If market sustains below 535 can see a further fall towards 530 and 524

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 538 Target 545 and 552 Stop loss at 534


MCXARUN
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zinc intraday

MCX Zinc trades weak following LME movement
12 June 2008 10:51:50

MCX Zinc traded weak following Lme movement, market closed near 81.50 with loss after registering days high near 83.05, market registered days low near 80.60.

LME inventory increased by 1825 MT to 144750MT and supported the bearish move for the day.

MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 80.4 level. If broken can see further fall to 79.3 and 77.9, If market holds above 81.7 further rally can be seen towards 82.8

Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Sell at 84 Target 82 and 80 SL 84.95


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lead intraday

MCX Lead netural to bearish
12 June 2008 10:52:24

MCX Lead June traded weak mostly following LME movement. LEAD June closed at 81.50, days high registered near 84.70 while low registered at 81.15.

LME inventory report supported the bearish move as stock were increased by 2100 MT to 74475 MT.

MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 80.2 level. If broken can see further fall to 78.9 and 76.7, If market holds above 82.5 further rally can be seen towards 83.8 and 86.0

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Sell at 85 Target 83 and 81 SL 85.95


MCXARUN
9994500540

nickel intraday

MCX Nickel trades positive
12 June 2008 10:51:25

MCX Nickel traded positive following international market and strength in Bullion and energy. MCX Nickel June closed at 998 with minor gains after registering days high near 1012.50, intra day low registered near 980 levels.

LME Inventory increased by 78 MT to 47238 MT.

China nickel to make 400,000 tonnes of special steel this year.

Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel Corp., Japan's largest-maker of the alloy, cut prices for nickel-based sheet this month for the first time since February as costs for the key ingredient declined.

MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 1014 level. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 1029 and 1046, If market sustains below 997 can see a further fall towards 981 and 964

Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Buy at 985-983 Target 1014 and 1025 SL 965



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copper intraday

Copper future expected to fell
12 June 2008 10:50:32

MCX Copper June traded in tight range of 333.5 to 338.35 and closed at 337.55 with minor gains, although market is having some bearish sentiments.

Copper futures fell in Asia as the dollar rebounded, curbing demand from investors seeking to buy commodities denominated in the U.S. currency as an alternative asset and hedge against inflation.

The dollar rose against the euro and the yen on speculation a government report today will show U.S. retail sales climbed in May, easing concern the world's largest economy is heading into a recession. Weakness in the dollar has helped copper rally 18 percent this year.

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange, which reached a record $8,880 a ton on April 17, was down 0.4 percent at $7,890 a metric ton.

China's imports of copper and copper products dropped 19 percent last month to the lowest since August as higher overseas prices deterred buyers and increased domestic production boosted supplies.

Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, said a natural-gas plant in northern Chile being built with France's Suez SA will start in the first quarter of 2010. Construction has begun on the $500 million project, jointly owned with Suez, Chilean state-owned Codelco said.

Codelco announced last year it would use tankers to import liquefied natural gas, which would then be turned back into gas at the plant.

Power costs in Chile, which mines 35 percent of the world's copper, may fall to ``normal'' levels in about 2012 from near records currently as the country adds about 20 percent to generating capacity, said Nelson Pizarro, chief executive officer of Minera Lumina Copper Chile SA.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 334.58 levels. If broken can see further fall to 331.62 and 329.73, If market holds above 336.47 further rally can be seen towards 339.43 and 341.32

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 337.50-338 Target 335 and 332 SL 339.80


MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Bullion: Gold market in a rally mode
12 June 2008 11:03:13

Gold rose for the first time this week after the euro rebounded against the dollar, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also gained.

The dollar fell against the euro on speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in the next month, widening the gap in borrowing costs with the U.S. The dollar gained 2 percent against the euro in the previous two sessions. Gold has climbed 34 percent in the past year as the euro rose 16 percent against the dollar

Platinum and palladium rose as crude-oil futures gained. rising oil prices typically fuel inflation concerns. The metals are used to make jewelry as well as emissions- control parts for gasoline and diesel engines. Some investors buy the futures and other commodities priced in dollars to preserve value when the currency declines

Gold will continue to track the value of the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies. Any significant weakening of the greenback would likely find the gold market in a rally mode, while any solid strength in the U.S. currency would find gold prices under more selling pressure.

Also significant and a bearish clue is the fact that gold prices the past few weeks have not closely tracked the crude oil futures market. Crude oil prices last week hit a fresh all-time high as this market has been trending higher since the beginning of the year. As the crude market has trended higher the gold market has trended lower. The divergent price path of these previously close allies is a very worrisome development for the gold market bulls.

Signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement have been selling far less gold than they are allowed to on an average weekly basis if they are to sell their full allotment of gold by September, says the Gartman Letter. "The bulls would argue that this means they've exhausted their gold sales; the bears will argue that that means they've a huge store of gold to sell through the remainder of the summer into the end of September when the Agreement ends," it notes. A maximum of 500 tons can be sold by signatories in any agreement year

U.S.Economy:

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said in a speech last night at an economic conference in Boston that "growth risks remain to the downside," but the Fed "will strongly resist an erosion of longer-term inflation expectations..." The speech was seen as hawkish support for the dollar.

The June 2009 Eurodollars are trading higher ahead of this afternoon's Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve.

Currencies update:

Japan's Cabinet Office said that real GDP was up 1.0% in the first quarter of 2008 and up 1.6% from a year ago. Also, the Bank of Japan said that producer prices were up 4.7% in May from a year ago, the biggest jump in 27 years.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that the unemployment rate for February to April was up .1 from a month ago to 5.3%.

Statistics Canada said that industrial capacity dropped from 81.8% to 79.8% in the first quarter of 2008, the lowest in 15 years.

The Reserve Bank of India increased its interest rate from 7.75% to 8.00% in an effort to restrain inflation.

MCX Gold June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals have turned neutral to sideways and market is expected to remain positive above 12280 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 12355 and 12438 If market sustains below 12145 can see a further fall towards 12065 and 11935

Recommendations–MCX Gold Aug: Sell at 12355 Target 12270 and 12140 Stoploss at 12405

MCX Silver July - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Technicals have turned neutral to sideways and market is expected to remain positive above 24025.00 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 24210 and 24550 If market sustains below 23685 can see a further fall towards 23500 and 23160

Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Sell at 24220 Target 23980 and 23700 stoploss at 24410

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HSBC Global Research

Gold, Silver will be steady: HSBC Global Research
12 June 2008 05:55:24

Following is a report from HSBC Global Research and their team's projections for average gold and silver prices for the short and medium term.

The good news is that all of the projected averages represent an increase above previous forecasts.

However, even with such allowances, the numbers came in as follows:

GOLD - 2008 $915
2009 $850
2010 $725
beyond $600

SILVER- 2008 $17.25
2009 $15.50
2010 $14.00
beyond $12.00


mcxarun
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comex silver outlook

Comex Silver: Short term trend is negative
12 June 2008 05:52:15

The close below the 40-day moving average is an indication the longer-term trend has turned down. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication.

Momentum studies are declining but have fallen to oversold levels.

The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The next downside target is now at 1605.8 The next area of resistance is around 1697.50 and 1741.8 while 1st support hits today at 1629.50 and below there at 1605.8 "

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comex gold outlook

omex Gold: Next resistance around $882.90
12 June 2008 05:51:00

A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Momentum studies are declining but have fallen to oversold levels.

The market's close below the 9-day moving average is an indication the short-term trend remains negative. The gap down on the day session chart is bearish, with more selling pressure possible today. The defensive setup, with the close under the 2nd swing support, could cause some early weakness.

The newt downside objective is $851.80. The next are of resistance is around $882.90 and $898.50, while first support hits today at $859.50 and below there at $851.80.


MCXARUN
9994500540