Bullion intraday

· Gold gained in MCX/COMEX reversing an earlier decline, after the dollar fell against the euro on concern the Federal Reserve's plan to provide funds to banks won't be enough to revive lending among banks.

· The Fed said yesterday it will make as much as $200 billion available to revive lending among banks. The plan drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its biggest gain in more than five years. Asian stocks rallied yesterday.

· The Federal Reserve has sold outright of 15 bln usd in Treasury bills maturing in May and June. The so-called coupon pass sold 3 bln usd each of T-bills maturing on May 8, 15, 22 and 29 and on June 5. Bids for the 15 bln usd in T-bills totaled 57 bln usd. The sale permanently changes the size of the Fed's System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio, transferring cash from the financial markets to the Fed's account.

· The euro continued to trade close to record highs against the dollar after euro zone industrial production data came in well above forecasts, suggesting that the European Central Bank will not be cutting interest rates any time soon.

· Data show industrial output for the region rose by 0.9 pct from December for a very strong 3.8 pct annual gain, far above the forecasts for much more moderate increases of 0.3 pct and 2.5 pct, respectively.


MCX Gold Apr

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold April: Buy at 12650 Target 12715 and 12760 Stop loss at 12615

MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver May: Buy at 25550 Target 26000 and 26220 Stop loss 25315


MCXARUN
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Safe trade

GOLD

for the day buy only abv 12810-15/835 & more abv 12875 S/L 12780 and T/p 13000 atleast in days to come upto 13075 OR sell below 12580 S/L 12605 and T/p 12550/510/470/400 where might find support again, only sustain fall below 12380 bearish sharp (any time close above 12875 bullish while close below 12500/12375/12150/11875/11575 -475/11300/10950-900/10500/10050/ 9850/9575 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day buy abv 26050 S/L 25975 and T/p 26150-200/300-400/26550/ 26675/26800/uprally, sustain abv 27150 seen new rally OR sell below 25500 S/L 25610 and T/p 25375/250/175/25050/ 24900/anytime sustain below 24850 test 24000-200 atleast in days to come (any time close below 24850/23090/ 21990/21250/20150/19390/18600-250/ 17850 bearish rally while close above 26300/27150 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day buy only abv 4340 & more abv 4360 S/L 4320 and T/p 4390-4400/ 4430 OR sell only below 4250 S/L 4270 and T/p 4210/4180/55/4130 (our T/p exact achieved (4430) book profit on buy abv 4200/4240-50/4310/4360) (now crude need to close above 4460 for bullish rally while close below 4150/ 4070/3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

for the day buy only abv 341 S/L 339.75 and T/p 342.5-344.5/347-48/351/354/ sustain abv uprally test 360 atleast upto 365 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 332/321/311-303/281/267.5/ 254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (March) BULLISH ABOVE 4391BEARISH BELOW 4372

GOLD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 12705 BEARISH BELOW 12663

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 25750 BEARISH BELOW 25655

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 338.10 BEARISH BELOW 337

LEAD (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 125.15BEARISH BELOW 124.60

NICKEL (MARCH) BULLISH ABOVE 1278 BEARISH BELOW 1270

ZINC (MARH) BULLISH ABOVE 105.40 BEARISH BELOW 104.90

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Another comment this time from US president Bush that the US dollars’ decline was not ``good tidings'' for proponents of a strong dollar. If these comments continue, the US dollar’s fall and crude oil’s rise will not stop unless there is coordinated central bank intervention. Traders and investors will use a rise as an exit opportunity in equities and invest the same else where or sit on cash. Metals and energies will be volatile. The federal reserve has been trying to use a series of measures to bring the house in order but markets have ignored such calls.

China's retail sales climbed 20.20%, the fastest pace in at least nine years, a sign that consumer spending may sustain the world's fastest- growing major economy as export demand weakens. China will slowly move away to a domestic demand growth against an export led growth and will be less dependent on US exports over the coming years. If Chinese domestic demand remains firm base metals’ long term bullish trend will be there but volatility will remain high. Steel, we are very bullish and will prefer to invest in steel stocks and steel futures for long term on any five to ten percent dip. Copper, Nickel and other base metals will be volatile.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $372.

Copper has managed to hold $372 and will target $392 and $402 once again.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $106.0

It remains to be seen whether $112 is broken or not. Support at $106.

MCXARUN
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