Crude Outlook 6th Jan,

U.S. crude oil futures settled at the highest level in a month yesterday as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Oil rose 5 percent as Israel deepened its thrust into Gaza on the 10th day of violence. OPEC's Jan. 1 cut also helped to lift oil prices.

Russia's dispute with Ukraine over natural gas prices increased the worry about the price and supply of the gas and influenced the oil.

Fog-related shipping delays on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a U.S. Department of Energy announcement about buying crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum reserve also helped oil prices.

On weekly basis U.S. crude oil futures recovered after a two week of falling and settled up at $46.34 per bl as Short-covering prompted by a failed cease-fire effort in the Middle East, growing tension between Russia and Ukraine over energy. Fog-related shipping delays on the U.S. Gulf Coast and a U.S. Department of Energy announcement about buying crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum reserve also helped oil prices.

Light, sweet crude oil for December delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $49.28- $45.56, and settled at $46.34a barrel yesterday.

Weekly Crude Oil (DWTI January.)

Expecting uptrend above $42.80.Resistances are $46.60 $49.80, and $55.00, Supports seen at $39.00, $36.80 and $35.30.


DWTI (JAN) traded in the range $49 - $45.65 and closed at $48.81

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (January) - Bullish above $49bearish below $48.40


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Gold Outlook 6th Jan

U.S. gold slipped 2 percent on Monday as Strong dollar and by a planned U.S. stimulus plan despite oil rose 5 percent as Israel deepened its thrust into Gaza on the 10th day of violence.

Investors welcomed news that U.S. President-elect Barack Obama is seeking as much as $310 billion in tax cuts as part of a proposed stimulus package that could be worth up to $775 billion and supported the dollars movements.

U.S. Dollar rose against the euro yesterday supported by a planned U.S. stimulus package and increased expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks other than the Federal Reserve.

At the same time the U.S. Census Bureau said that construction spending was at an annual rate of $1.0784 trillion in November, down .6% from October's pace and down 3.3% from a year ago.

International spot gold traded in the range $ 883.55- $ 843.50 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $858

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

Expected trading range is $892- 854, breaking of either side will make the direction. Resistances are $906, $917, $935. Supports are at $844, $831, $820

Last day DGCX Gold FEB. Traded in the range $874.60-$844.80and closed at $ 859.50

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (FEB) - Bullish above $ 862 bearish below $ 856


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safe trade calls

GOLD

THIS WAS OUR VIEW "below 13350 test 13150-13050 Range" AND SEE PRICE MAKE LOW=13185 WITHIN HRS AFTER BREAK 13350. we book profit on sell below 13575/13440, for the day sell only below 13200-175 S/L 13235 and T/p 13100/13025 OR sell ard 13535-540 S/L 13550 and T/p 13500-460 (any time close above 13800/14400 bullish while close below 13175/12650-600/12330/11950/11525-420 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

Now as long Resistance of 18700 down trend seen continue. for the day sell only below 18100 S/L 18200 and T/p 18000-17950/sustain below towards 17750 OR sell ard 18670-680 S/L 18700 and T/p 18600-500, only close above 18750 uprally again to test 193250-350 Range atleast in coming days (any time close below 17625-525/16925/16100/ 15775 bearish rally while close above 18750/19475/20975/21725 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

THIS WAS OUR WORDS "sustain close above 2125 towards 2275-2300 atleast" & SEE HIGH MADE 2339 ACHIEVED. Continue to view as long support of 2225 more upside expected. book profit on buy abv 2125/2260, for the day buy only abv 2340 S/L 2325 and T/p 2370-2400/sustain above towards 2500-2520 in coming days OR sell below 2275 S/L 2295 and T/p 2255-25/ 2200/below down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 2340/2560/2860 for bullish rally while close below 2225/ 2020-1990/1790-1750 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

Continue to view as long support of 153.5/151.5 upside seen continue. we book profit on buy abv 158, for the day buy only abv 161.25 S/L 160 and T/p 162.25/sustain abv test 165-166 in coming days OR sell only below 158.5 S/L 159.5 and T/p 157.5/155.5/154 (upside strong rally only on close above 162.5/171.5/183.5/191.5/197.5/204.5/ 219/238/271 while close below 151.5/ 144/138.5 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
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Global Recap – 5th Jan, 09

Crude oil prices fluctuated around $47 a barrel as Israel's deepening incursion into Gaza and the Russian gas dispute heightened geopolitical supply fears. However, prices swung in and out of positive territory as a rally in the U.S. dollar encouraged profit-taking by investors, with oil prices up by more than 30% since the end of December. Oil prices have risen sharply from around $35 a barrel since Israel launched its Gaza offensive on Dec. 27, heightening fears for crude supplies from the Middle East. An Iranian military commander called for Islamic producers to cut supplies to Israel's supporters in Europe and the United States. OPEC's most influential member Saudi Arabia and neighbours Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are regional allies of the United States. However Gaza violence does not directly threaten any oil production, but there was underlying concern it could affect other countries in the Middle East, with little sign of the violence abating.

Gold dropped below $845 an ounce on the back of a dollar rally and signs of slowing physical demand. Gold weighed down heavily by a sharply higher dollar based on expectations of interest rate cuts by major central banks and news of a planned U.S. stimulus package. Reports of tumbling physical gold imports by top consumer India confirmed concerns of slowing bullion demand in emerging economies. Meanwhile gold imports by India plunged by 81% in December and down 47% in 2008, as high prices and a slowing economy dented demand.

Copper edged higher recouping earlier losses and extending a New Year's rally that saw prices climb nearly 11% in two days. Copper up in modest short-covering rebound after prices fail to break down below $1.40. Copper's morning gains buck stronger tone in the dollar, which hit a three-week high against the Euro amid expectations of interest rates cuts by major central banks and news of a planned U.S. stimulus package. Copper supported by economic data showing a less than expected decline in U.S. construction spending. China will allow tax-free imports of copper, nickel and cobalt concentrate from Feb. 1, as long as the finished products are re-exported, according to a statement on the Ministry of Commerce's website (www.mofcom.gov.cn).

U.S. construction spending tumbled by 0.6% for the month of November, according to the Commerce Department report, showing that building at the end of 2008 was stronger than Wall Street had expected. However analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated the drop to be a much steeper 1.3%. October's change was also revised to down 0.4% from the originally reported drop of 1.2%. Moreover public spending, on the other hand, increased 1.4%.


MCXARUN
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