energy trend indicater

A storm bringing frigid temperatures to the U.S. Northeast pushed up prices in the energy complex. Also affecting sentiment were militant attacks in OPEC country Nigeria, where Shell declared force majeure on exports of Forcados crude after a pipeline attack last week.

WTI Crude (CLG8) trading in a tight range going into the US Weekly Inventories tomorrow, caught between the 21 d.m.a @ 93.13 and the 50 d.m.a @ 94.56.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
CRUDE
LCOG8
Resist.
96.44
94.4
93.71
92.86
91.67
90.32
88.28
Support
50dMA
92.28
10dMA
94.39

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Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver could be for a bit of metal fatigue short term after printing new highs yesterday on USD weakness. We believe Gold and Silver prices are rich compare to the USD which is comparatively at the same level as November last year. The odds for a correction are increasing and we are looking for a retracement towards 897 for Gold February (gcg8/zig8) and 16.00 and 15.50 for Silver March(zih8/sih8).

A five-month strike at Grupo Mexico’s Cananea copper mine ended on 11 January after a Mexicanfederal labour court ruled the action was illegal because strikers did not follow proper process in initiating the walk-out. The company has since reported that most employees had turned up forweekend shifts as normal, but warned normal production levels at the pit will not be reached for aroundthree months. It is estimated the strike has lost the company about 80Kt of copper output.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
GOLD SILVER
ZGG8 ZIG8
Resist. Resist.
921.3 16.471
915.2 16.471
912.6 16.471
906.1 16.471
906.5 16.471
903 16.471
896.9 16.471
Support Support
47dMA 31dMA
826.6 14.777
9dMA 9dMA
881.4 15.641

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energy

Nymex crude oil lost almost 2.69% on Tuesday following selling in Bullion and Base metals with weak economic data and Crude oil inventory expectation. Mcx Crude oil was trading below Rs. 3600 per barrel and closed with heavy loss of more then 2%. While MCX Natural gas followed the crude oil movement and was trading in the range of 319-329

· The U.S. Energy Department's weekly report tomorrow will probably say stockpiles of crude oil and distillate fuel, a category including heating oil and diesel, increased last week.Saudi Arabia, the biggest crude exporter, said it has spare capacity equivalent to 2 million barrels of oil a day.

· U.S. President George W. Bush, on his first visit toSaudi Arabia, urged the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more oil in an effort to lower near-record crude prices. The group is scheduled to meet on Feb. 1.

· OPEC will consider stockpiles in consuming countries and ``raise production when the market justifies it,'' Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters inRiyadh today.

· Iran is Opec's second largest producer and is conflict with theU.S. over a variety of reasons including its stand on continuing with its nuclear research.

· As per Dow Jones newswires report, Israeli Prime Minister told Monday that Israel rejects no options to block Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. This comes after U.S. President on Sunday said thatIran is threatening the security of the world, and that theU.S. and Arab allies must join together to confront the danger before it's too late.

· Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Sunday thatIran has agreed to clear up remaining questions on its nuclear program in four weeks, as reported by Dow Jones newswires. AlsoIran said it recognizes only IAEA as an official negotiator over its nuclear issue.

MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The 9-day

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3635-40 for target of 3580 and 3535 with stop loss below 3685

MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Buy at 317-320 for the target of 329 and 336 with stop loss at 313

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Bullion

Gold futures in MCX and Comex pared initial gains as traders locked in profits at higher levels. Weakness in crude oil prices and risk averse selling due to weak global equity markets saw bullion drifting in the red zone. MCX Gold Feb registered a high of Rs. 11533 per10 gram, similarly MCX Silver march registered a high of Rs. 21294 per kg for the day. Market closed in positive territory.

· International spot gold touched an intra-day high of $913.580 and Silver $16.51 per Toz, both were trading in positive territory.

· The dollar fell close to a record against the euro yesterday as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates to avoid a recession. Gold has gained 8.9 percent this year, while the dollar has fallen more than 1.9 percent.

· Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the world's biggest exchange-traded fund, or ETF, backed by gold, increased 10.75 metric tons yesterday to a record 652.56 tons, according to the World Gold Council. Gold has climbed 8.5 percent this year as the dollar dropped 1.9 percent against the euro.

· Sales of gold scrap in India, the world's biggest buyer of the precious metal, have increased as record prices prompt housewives and other consumers to recycle more old jewelry, curbing demand for new supplies of bullion.

· Purchases by India in the three months ended December, the traditional peak consumption season, slumped 77 percent from a year earlier to 40 tons, the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd. said last week. Increased sale of scrap may further dampen demand from the South Asian nation, helping cool a record-breaking rally.

· The biggest annual gain in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar in more than three decades meant that domestic gold prices lagged behind global rates last year.

Indian Bullion Spot Market

· Mumbai gold of 0.995-purity closed 50 rupees lower at 11,525 rupees per 10 grams, while gold of 0.999-purity closed 50 rupees lower at 11,575 rupees per 10 grams. Silver of 0.999-purity closed 130 rupees lower at 20,720 per kg.

· Jaipur and Ahmedabad markets were closed on the occasion of Makar Sankranti.

· Chennai gold (995) finished steady at Rs 11,390/10gm and gold (999) at Rs 11,440/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,100/kg.

· In Delhi bullion markets, gold (995) closed at Rs 11,700/10gm and gold (999) at Rs 11,640/10gm respectively whereas Silver (.999) closed at Rs 20,620/kg.

MCX Gold Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Gold Feb: Sell at 11300-320 for the target of 11250 and 11200 with stop loss at 11345

MCX Silver Mar (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are still bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Silver March: Sell at 20750-20800 for the target of 20600 and 20450 with stop loss at 20915

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (February) BULLISH ABOVE 3621BEARISH BELOW 3607



GOLD (February) BULLISH ABOVE 11410 BEARISH BELOW 11373



SILVER (March) BULLISH ABOVE 20978 BEARISH BELOW 20890



COPPER (February) BULLISH ABOVE 284.80 BEARISH BELOW 284



LEAD (January) BULLISH ABOVE 104.90 BEARISH BELOW 104.80



NICKEL (January) BULLISH ABOVE 1126 BEARISH BELOW 1120



ZINC (January) BULLISH ABOVE 92.30 BEARISH BELOW 91.90

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outlook

February gold closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this winter's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a
steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to
higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this winter's rally, Monthly resistance crossing at 930.00 is the next
upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 881.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 916.10 then monthly resistance crossing at 930.00. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 881.00 then November's high crossing at 855.00.

March silver closed lower on Tuesday and as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the
stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, weekly
resistance crossing at 17.000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.846 would
confirm that a double top with November's high has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 16.715 then
weekly resistance crossing at 17.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.846 then the 20-day moving
average crossing at 15.190.

March copper closed lower on Tuesday and below the 50% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at
330.22 as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on
Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are
possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline
crossing at 340.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 313.32 would confirm that a
short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 337.85 then the 62% retracement level
crossing at 340.79. First support is today's low crossing at 322.00. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 321.50.

February crude oil closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline below the 20-day moving average crossing at
94.58. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 89.15
is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.62 would temper the near-term bearish
outlook in the market. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.58. Second resistance is the 10-day moving
average crossing at 95.62. First support is today's low crossing at 90.98. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.15.

February Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 62% retracement level of the November-December decline
crossing at 8.260 as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to
lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top
might be in or is near. If February extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the November-December decline
crossing at 8.540 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.227 then the 75% retracement level
crossing at 8.540. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.032. Second support is the 50% retracement level
crossing at 8.010.

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The fall in gold and silver is just profit taking and nothing else. Liquidity factors due to the continuous fall in stock markets and prices of base metals and energies also contributed to the fall. Gold created the new high just before the London pm fixing which suggests that punters were trying to ensure that prices rise whenever there is demand. Traders and investors are on edge over current prices. Momentum is bullish while technically overbought; this has created nervousness in the mindset of day traders and jobbers which will add to the volatility.

This is not a market to put stop loss as stop losses are bound to be hit. Yesterday one of our clients sold Comex gold February around $913 and put a stop loss of $915 which was hit. This is market when stop losses and limit orders are useless for the day trader. Please buy market and exit on market prices. Monday US markets are closed due to Martin Luther King holiday. Traders will use sharp dips before Monday to go long.

GOLD -- FEBRURAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT:$888.0

Failure of gold to break $918-$923 zone by Monday will result in $888 and $860 once again. Initial resistance at $907.0

COPPER -- MARCH FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $338.70

Triple top formation around $339 will result in a fall to $316 and $303.



HAPPY PROFITABLE TRADING

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இனிய பொங்கல் நல்வாழ்த்துக்கள்

இன்று தமிழ் நாட்டில் உழவர்கள் இயற்கைக்கு நன்றி செலுத்தும் விதமாக பொங்கலிட்டு அதை இயற்கைக்கு படித்து கொண்டாடினர், சமய சார்பில்லாத இந்த தமிழர் திரு நாளை அனைவரும் கொண்டாடவேண்டும் என்பதே என் ஆசை,

today in tamilnadu, farmers celebrate the thanks giving to nature as pongal , i wish u all for celebrate this pongal without religion

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