comex crude outlook

Crude oil futures rose yesterday and touched 102.24 a barrel and closed up as on growing U.S. and Nigerian supply concerns even as the dollar jumped on an emerging U.S. government plan for a comprehensive solution to the financial crisis.

According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, it would expand its reciprocal currency agreements to $180 billion, boosting its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank and setting up new currency swap arrangements with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.

In a surprise move on last Wednesday, OPEC agreed to revise its complex output targets and cut supplies by half a million barrels per day.

The economy in the United States and Europe is turning bad and people realize that the growth in the economies of China, India and Brazil will not be enough to offset what looks like a world economic contraction also added pressure in oil prices.

Light, sweet crude oil for October delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $102.24 - $95.73, before settling at $98.02a barrel yesterday.

Crude has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as growing global economic problems and high fuel prices have cut demand in top consumer the United States as well as Europe.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

Crude Oil (DWTI oct.)

Crude oil price remains weak below $105. Supports are $98.50, $87 Resistances are $110.40, $115.60 and $122. If trade and sustain above 105.50, expecting more uptrend

DWTI (oct) traded in the range $101.80 - $95.80 and closed at $97.54.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $98.50; bearish below $97.80


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comex gold outlook

After a fierce rally on Wednesday, Gold ended lower yesterday as the profit booking and a broad surge with stocks on news Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is talking about a Resolution Trust Corp-type solution to the current financial crisis.

According to the U.S. Federal Reserve, it would expand its reciprocal currency agreements to $180 billion, boosting its existing swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank and setting up new currency swap arrangements with the Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.

At the same time the U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were up 10,000 last week to 455,000, more than expected and influenced by Hurricane Gustav.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 455,000 during the week ended Sept. 13 from 445,000 the prior week. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims to drop to 440,000 last week.

Meanwhile, the number of continued claims unexpectedly fell by 55,000 to 3.48 million in the week ended Sept. 6, the most recent week for which that data is available, after an increase of 129,000 the prior week.

But analysts had expected continued claims to be almost unchanged from 3.53 million in the week ended Aug. 30, which was the highest reading since October 2003.

At the same time according to the U.S. Labor Department, the consumer price index was down .1% in August and up 5.4% from a year ago, as expected. Excluding food and energy, prices were up .2% in August and up 2.5% from a year ago.

In a report, the U.S. trade deficit swelled to $62.2 billion, the largest since March 2007, from an upwardly revised estimate of $58.84 billion in June. Wall Street analysts had forecast the deficit to expand to $58.0 billion from the original June tally of $56.8 billion.

International spot gold traded in the range $902.60 - $841.7005a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $847.25.

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

More selling pressure expecting below $789.30 .Resistances are $798, $811, $820. Supports are $779, $772.20, and $745.if sustain above $820, expecting more uptrend

Last day DGCX Gold Dec. traded in the range $920.40– $857and closed at $868.20

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Dec) - Bullish above $880 bearish below $ 875.60


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safe trade calls

GOLD

for the day sell only below 13000 S/L 13035 and T/p 12940/12850/anytime sustain close below 12800 test 12450 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 13550 S/L 13500 and T/p 13600/ towards 13700 (any time close above 13550/13850 bullish while close below 12750/12300/11675/11125 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

As long support of 18900-950, upside seen continue. for the day buy only abv 20550 S/L 20450 and T/p 20650-750-850/sustain above 20850 seen new uprally OR buy ard 19000-10 S/L 18950 and T/p 19100-200 upto 19300, only below 18900 trigger sell call again (any time close below 18950/18350/17800-650 bearish rally while close above 20850/22150/25250/26350/27475/ 28000 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain abv towards 4700 in coming days" ACHIEVED AS DAYS HIGH WAS 4714. we book profit on buy abv 4520, fresh buy only abv 4660 S/L 4630 and T/p 4700-4715/sustain abv test 4825 atleast OR sell below 4470 S/L 4500 and T/p 4440/4400-4390 where support seen again (now crude need to close above 4715/4920/5305/5460 for bullish rally while close below 4440/ 4250/3960 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

Continue to view as long Resistance of 323.5 & 326 down trend continue. sell only below 310 S/L 311.5 and T/p 308/ 306/303.5/below down rally OR sell ard 322.8-323 S/L 323.5 and T/p 321/318.5 (upside strong rally only on close above 327/339/351.25/360.5/387/398 while close below 303..5/289/265/251.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540