mcx gold

Gold -The unit sold off aggressively from the 976 high, taking out channel support at 954 as well as last week’s low near 951. Gold has since touched the June high support of 946. The break and close below the channel support turns our view neutral. The risks have turned toward further losses in the days ahead, with next support seen at 942. Stale longs may look to exit now, close to 955.Now support for the gold MCX is seen at 12911 and below could see a test of 12748. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 13351, a move above could see prices testing 13628.

Trading Ideas:

TRADING RANGE IS 12748-13628.
SELL GOLD @ 13156-180 SL 13260 TGT 13000-12940-12845-12680. MCX
A BREAK OF 12960 ADD SHORT FOR TGT 12860-12845-12680. MCX
REMEMBER EVE WEAK SAME AS YESTERDAY

MCXARUN
9994500540

comex gold outlook

Gold reversed gains yesterday and closed $20 lower as the dollar bounced back and oil price fell.

International spot gold traded in the range $975.95 - $942.80 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $945.00 ($965.30).

Dollar recovered on supportive comments from top officials - Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson.

But according to the release by Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 0.3 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April to May. For the 12 months ending in May, the prices fell 4.8 percent.

US Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, a forecast of future economic activity, showed a decline of 0.1% in June. The result for May, which had been estimated to have risen 0.1%, was revised to a decline of 0.2%. The index has slipped 0.9 percent for the six months ending in June.

Oil price fell after worries that storms may disrupt oil supplies in the Gulf of Mexico eased. According to latest reports, Tropical Storm Dolly is not expected to have a major impact on oil and natural gas operations in the Gulf.

A smaller-than-expected quarterly loss from Citigroup Inc, the largest bank in US, last week had slightly eased worries about the US financial sector.

Weekly data from the US Labor Department showed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose 18,000 to 366,000 in the week ended July 12, but the four-week average of initial claims fell 4,500 to 376,500. Continuing claims fell to 3.12 million for the week ended July 5, down 81,000. The four-week average of continuing jobless claims increased by 16,500 to 3.14 million, the highest level since February 2004.

According to the data released by the Federal Reserve on last Wednesday, output of US factories, mines and utilities increased 0.5% in June, following a 0.7% drop in April and a 0.2% decline in May. But for the quarter as a whole, industrial production was down at a 3.1% annual rate.

The US Labor Department reported that the nation’s Consumer Price Index rose 1.1 % in June to an annual pace of 5.0%, underscoring the Fed concerns about rising inflation and sluggish growth.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said last week that the US economy is facing significant risks to growth. He also urged that Fed must remain particularly alert to any sign that inflation is getting out of control.

The US government's rescue plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac heightened fears about the financial market. On July 13, the government had announced bailout for the two GSE’s (Govt. Sponsored Enterprises).

Meanwhile, the US trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in May. The US Commerce Department reported a 1.2 % decrease in trade deficit in May to $59.8 billion deficit from the revised $60.5 billion in April.

The unemployment rate in US remained at a four-year high of 5.5% in June, according to the release by the Labor Department.

The US Commerce Department in its final revision to GDP estimates said that the economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than originally reported. Real GDP was revised to a 1.0% annual rate in the first three months of the year, up from an originally reported reading of 0.9%.

The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.

Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)

More correction expected below $948. Resistances are $959.10, $966.40, $972.00; Supports $936, $925, $912.

Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $976.30 – $944.30 and closed at $945.80 ($964.80).

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 955.50; bearish below $ 950.00

MCXARUN
9994500540

safe trade calls

GOLD


for the day sell only below 13025 S/L 13045 and T/p 12950-900/towards 12775 in coming days OR sell ard 13285-295 S/L 13300 and T/p 13245-210 upto 13160 (any time close above 13670 bullish while close below 13025/ 12750/12150/11920/11775/11375/ 11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER


THIS WAS OUR WORDS YESTERDAY "sustain below 25325 towards 25000" ACHIEVED EXACTLY AS DAYS LOW=25000 book profit on sell ard 25820-830/25500, for the day sell below 24950 S/L 25010 and T/p 24850/24725/ sustain close below towards 24300 & 23700 in coming days OR sell ard 25610-25 S/L 25650 and T/p 25500-425/ 25375 (any time close below 24725/ 23525/23075/21825 bearish rally while close above 26100/27250/28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


CRUDE OIL INVENTORY SCHEDULE TO RELEASE TODAY PRICE TURN ALMOST FROM OUR GIVEN RESISTANCE LEVEL book profit on sell ard 5650-55/5530-10, for the day sell only below 5375 S/L 5405 and T/p 5340-5300/towards 5200-5150 in coming days OR sell ard 5588-92 S/L 5600 and T/p 5560-5500 THIS WAS OUR WORDS ON 17-7 "close below seen new down rally" (now crude need to close above 5680/6040/6360 for bullish rally while close below 5375/ 5155-5060 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


for the day sell only below 344 S/L 345.5 and T/p 341-40/upto 338.5 OR sell ard 352.4-352.6 S/L 353 and T/p 350.5/349, only sustain abv 353 trigger buy now (upside strong rally only on close above 360.5/371/387.5/398 while close below 344/331.5-330.5/326/ 311 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540