SAFETRADE CALLS

GOLD

for the day sell only below 11890 S/L 11920 and T/p 11850-55/810 upto 11760 OR buy abv 12025 S/L 12000 and T/p 12060-12100/12140-175 upto 12300 in coming days (any time close above 12175/12400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11690/11375/11000 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

for the day buy only abv 23650 S/L 23550 and T/p 23750-850/24000/sustain abv uprally sharp test 24300 atleast OR buy ard 22770-80 S/L 22750 and T/p 23000-100, as long support of 22750 & 22550 uprally likely to continue (any time close below 22550/22050/21325-250/20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23900-24000/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

for the day sell only below 4340-30 S/L 4360 and T/p 4310-4295/4265/4235 OR buy abv 4440-45 S/L 4425 and T/p 4470 -90/4520-40/close abv 4490 test 4600-4650 atleast in coming days (now crude need to close above 4490 for bullish rally while close below 4310/4225/ 4115/3985-3960/3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER

price turn exact from our resist, book profit on buy abv 345/352, for the day buy only abv 350 S/L 348 and T/p 352.5 -354/close abv 354 test 365-368 atleast in coming days OR sell only below 338.5 S/L 340 and T/p 337/332 atleast and fall below 327 down rally(upside strong rally only on close above 354 while close below 338.5/327/310.5-303/ 281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

long view

SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 950-52/60 UPTO $ 970 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 940


SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 18.80/19.30 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.41

MCXARUN
9994500540

energy intraday

Major Headline:

· Crude oil and gasoline fell from records on signs that high prices and a slowing economy will curb U.S. fuel consumption. The International Monetary Fund said this week there's a 25 percent chance of a world recession. Gasoline use may drop this summer, the EIA said April 7. In New York Crude oil rose to a record $112.21 a barrel on April 9 after the U.S. reported an unexpected decline in inventories.

· Commodity prices are going the wrong way, said Simon Johnson, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, in an interview on Bloomberg yesterday. Whenever global growth slows down, you'd expect commodity prices to fall. If it's a substantial global slowdown, commodity prices would fall somewhere in the order of 30 percent.

· Current oil supply is sufficient to meet the needs of the global market, while crude inventories are rebuilding, and there are not enough buyers of oil to justify an increase in oil production, despite prices remaining near record levels on both sides of the Atlantic. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters at an international oil conference yesterday

· Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised the lower end of its crude price forecast for this spring to $98.80 a barrel from $90 barrel, the bank also raised the upper limit for its price expectations in the second half of the year, estimating that oil may climb as high as $115 a barrel on the WTI crude oil instead of $105

· The weak dollar and demand from speculators are keeping the price high; fundamentally, it isn't justified. Stockpiles are above the five-year-average in almost all product categories. We are expecting the price to stay at $90 to $110 in the short term and demand from China and India will remain strong

· OPEC's daily shipments of crude will increase 0.7 percent in this month and forthcoming April 20-22 International Energy Forum in Rome will be an occasion for members to discuss the oil market situation directly with consuming nations



· OPEC shouldn't produce more oil because the market is already well supplied, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. The minister, representing the world's biggest oil exporter and the most influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, blamed record crude prices above $100 a barrel on the falling value of the U.S. dollar.

· Natural gas rose to the highest in NY more than two years after a government report showed U.S.inventories declined to the lowest since 2005. Supplies last week fell to 1.234 trillion cubic feet, 1.8percent below the five-year average of 1.257 trillion, the Energy Department said yesterday. Stockpiles usually rise in April as heating demand wanes and before use picks up from utilities supplying power for air conditioners

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a Bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, the market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4450 Target 4390 and 4330 Stop loss 4490

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a Bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Sell at 407 Target 403 and 399 Stop loss at 412

MCXARUN
9994500540

basemetals intraday

Copper

- Copper fell as increased stockpiles in warehouses monitored by commodity exchanges in London while weak ness in and Bullion and Energy supported the movement. Copper mostly fell because of expected slow down in US Economy and decreasing demand from china and other countries.

- Inventory at LME increased by 525 MT to 116100MT, which pressured metal down initially

- Copper's six-year advance will continue as prices double on the construction of power plants, railroads and other infrastructure in developing nations, U.S. Global Investors Inc

- Vedanta Resources Plc, India's largest copper producer, said output of the metal fell 1.6 percent to 124,000 tons in the three months ended March 31 after a power-grid failure in Zambia. Chile, the world's largest copper-producing nation, also faced a power-supply problem.

- Copper producers speaking at the CESCO copper conference in Santiago are suggesting mine output may be unable to keep up with demand this year, further pressuring already depleted stockpiles, analysts said.

- Meanwhile fears are growing that supply could be disrupted in South America after Peru's biggest federation of mine working unions called for a nationwide strike on May 12. Peru is the world's second largest producer of copper.

- A one-day strike at Codelco's Norte smelter in Chile was resolved yesterday without production being affected, according to reports.

- Russia will auction the Udokan copper deposit, the country's biggest untapped resource of the metal, on July 17, Interfax said, citing Natural Resources Ministry reports.


MCX Copper April Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain weak and the support is seen at 341.20 levels. If market breaches 341.20 may see prices to take further correction towards 337.30/331.10 levels. However if it holds above 347.50 may see prices to cover further on today. Major resistance is seen at 351.32, 357.70 and 361.50


Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Sell at 347-346 Target 342 and 338 Stop loss 351.40





Nickel

- MCX Nickel April prices fell following other base metals, bullion and energy. Market was down by almost 2% following LME movement. Crude oil and Gold traded lower almost by by 1.5% on strong dollar and weaker euro.

- Inventory at LME decreased by 186 MT to 51882MT, which pressured metal up initially

- Nippon Steel & Sumikin Stainless Steel Corp., Japan's biggest maker of the alloy, agreed to pay Xstrata Plc and Samancor Chrome Ltd. a record high $2 a pound for ferrochrome in the three months ending June 30.

- Demand for iron ore in China, the world's largest user of the commodity used to make steel, will likely increase 8 percent to 10 percent this year and in 2009, according to the China Metallurgical Mining Enterprise Association.

- China may slow the growth of imports this year because of record prices and as the government reins in lending and real estate expansion, Zou had said April 2. Imports of the commodity may rise 14 percent to 435 million metric tons this year, he said then. That's slower than the 17 percent gain last year.

- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, and bid target Rio Tinto Group remain in negotiations with Asian steelmakers to set contract prices for iron ore for the year from the start of this month. Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce has already settled for an increase of as much as 71 percent.

- Rio Tinto wants to win a bigger price increase from Asian steelmakers than Vale to reflect the cheaper cost of supplying ore from Australia than South America, potentially breaking with the tradition of a single global benchmark.




MCX Nickel April Technical Outlook:



The daily stochastic have crossed down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below above the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain weak and the support is seen at 1135 levels. If market breaches 1135 may see prices to take further correction towards 1119/1089 levels. However if it holds above 1166 may see prices to cover further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1182, 1213 and 1229

Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1165 -60 Target 1130 and 1120 Stop loss at 1183







Zinc

- MCX Zinc April traded negative following other base metals, Bullion and energy prices. Lead closed with 2.80 % loss while Copper, Aluminium and Nickel were down almost by 1.5% following LME and comex prices.

- Inventory at LME increased by 1300 MT to 128550, which pressured metal down initially

- Padaeng Industry Pcl, Bangkok-based a zinc-producer, will increase zinc production by 10 percent this year, the Bangkok Post reported. Production from mines in Thailand, Laos, Burma and Vietnam will be increased to full capacity of 110,000 tonnes.






MCX Zinc April Technical Outlook:



The daily stochastic have crossed down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below above the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain weak and the support is seen at 91.5 levels. If market breaches 91.85 may see prices to take further correction towards 90.70/89 levels. However if it holds above 93.55 may see prices to cover further on today. Major resistance is seen at 94.70, 96.40 and 97.55



Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Sell at 93.50 – 93.00 Target 91.80, 90 and 89 Stop loss at 94.70



Aluminium

- MCX Aluminium April remains slightly low following other base metals, bullion and energy prices decreased by 1% following LME prices.

- Aluminum Corp. of China said the Asian nation's consumption of copper has a lot of ``room to grow.''

- China's per-capita use of the metal is 2.8 kilograms (6.2 pounds), compared with at least 10 kilograms for developed countries, Chinalco Senior Business Manager Deng Gang said today at a copper conference in Santiago.

- China won't see a ``big jump'' in smelting capacity next year because supplies of copper concentrate are ``still tight,''he said.

- Rio Tinto-RTP: Down on Lower Expected 2008 Copper Output The shares are taking a hit this morning after the company announced that copper output would be "down a bit" from 2007 according to Reuters, but will recover in 2009. The stock had been in a very bullish configuration up to this news.





MCX Aluminium April Technical Outlook:



The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 122.83 levels. If market breaches 122.83 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.40/125.40 levels. However if it holds back below 120.30 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 119.30 and 117.80


Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123, 125 and 128 Stop loss at 115


MCXARUN
9994500540

bullion intraday

Gold and silver fell by yesterday as the euro pared gains that sent the currency to the highest ever against the dollar. The euro was little changed after climbing to a record $1.5913. The ECB kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 % yesterday and signaled growth is slowing in the 15 nations that share the currency

· South Africa, the world's second biggest precious metals producer, said mining output fell after a national power shortage triggered a slump in gold production by 7.3 percent in February, led by a decline in gold production. Gold output plunged 28.2 percent from a year earlier and non-gold output fell 3.2 percent

* Russia's foreign currency and gold reserves rose to a record $508 billion last week, and China has the world's biggest currency reserves, totaling $1.5 trillion at the end of last year, Japan has the second largest at $979 billion as of Feb. 29 according to Bloomberg data

· Demand for gold jewelry, the biggest use for the metal, has slumped by 25 percent since 2000 as prices more than doubled, according to GFMS. Jewelers have responded by using cheaper metals such as silver or more stones,



· In India, the largest gold jewelry market, designs typically contain 22 carats, In China, which overtook the U.S. as the second-biggest market for gold jewelry last year, most designs are 24 carats, Gold is so expensive that jewelers in Japan are offering designs with 5 carats of metal for the first time; the average content of the precious metal in jewelry is 18 carats with 24 carats being pure gold

US Economy

· The U.S. Census Bureau said that exports increased $3.0 billion to $151.4 billion in February while imports increased $6.4 billion to $213.7 billion. The result was $62.3 billion of net imports, more than expected.

· The U.S. Labor Department said that jobless claims were down 53,000 last week to 357,000.

Currency Update:

· The Bank of England reduced its interest rate from 5.25% to 5.00%, as expected. It was the second reduction this year. The June British pound is steady to higher.

· The European Central Bank met and kept its interest rate at 4.0%, as expected. President Trichet remains concerned about rising inflation.

· Statistics Canada said that exports were up 3.8% to C$39.3 billion in February while imports were down 2.0% to C$34.4 billion. The result was C$4.9 billion of net exports in February, more than expected



MCX Gold June

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations– MCX Gold June: Sell at 12030 Target 11950 and 11860 Stop loss at 12085



MCX Silver May

Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Negative as the close remains below the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.



Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 23330-60 Target 23160 and 22910 Stop loss at23500


MCXARUN
9994500540

Comex gold intraday

Gold prices closed moderately lower yesterday, as a recovery in the dollar brought about profit booking in the bullion following the previous day’s rally.



Dollar gained on profit booking in the Euro, after the European currency rose to a new record high against the greenback earlier in the day.



Among the economic data released Thursday, initial jobless claims in the US fell 53,000 to 357,000 in the week ended April 5, as reported by the Labor Department. But the four-week average of initial claims rose by 2,500 to 378,250.



Also, continuing jobless claims rose 3,000 to 2.94 million, the highest since July 2004, for the week ending March 29. The four-week moving average of continuing jobless claims increased 36,500 to 2.9 million.



In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.



As expected, the European Central Bank left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent.



The International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposal to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold from its reserves, which is currently valued at more than $13 billion, weighed on the traders’ sentiments in the bullion.



International spot gold traded in the range $939.40 - $922.10 and last quoted at $928.40 ($933.80).



The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March gave a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.



The National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) pending home sales index for February fell 1.9 percent to 84.6 from 86.2 in the previous month.



According to the release from US Labor Department last week, non-farm payrolls fell by an estimated 80,000 in March.



Also, the unemployment rate in the US rose to 5.1% in March, the highest since September 2005.

Crude oil May in NYMEX traded in the range $112.20 – 108.75 and settled at $110.02 ($110.87).

Crude oil prices had risen sharply on Thursday, after the weekly inventory update from US Energy Department showed a surprise rise in the nation’s crude inventories. As per the report, US crude inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels during the week ended April 4. The broad expectation had been an increase in the stockpiles.

OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri on Sunday had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.

Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $943.30 – $925.70 and closed at $931.40 ($937.30).



DGCX Gold June



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 935.00; bearish below $ 930.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4416 BEARISH BELOW 4395

GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 12016 BEARISH BELOW 11975

SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 23435 BEARISH BELOW 23342

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 347.30BEARISH BELOW 346

LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 116.50 BEARISH BELOW 115.90

NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1165 BEARISH BELOW 1157

ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 93.50 BEARISH BELOW 92.90

MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Markets will be looking forward to the G7 meeting this week for surprises (if any) and their comments on global financial markets. Else there is hardly anything to comment on the metals and energy market. The US dollar is the key driving force behind movement in metals and energies as they move in direct correlation. Volatility has been excess this week. At the beginning of the week I had expected this week to be calm one but it has been the reverse. Every day we are hearing comments from one central banker or another. As long as these continue volatility will continue to remain on the higher side.

The movement in crude oil prices seems to be dictated by the options markets. Since last September retail investors were seen buying put options in crude oil on expectations of a fall in crude oil prices after Easter. These became useless. The sellers of options started to cover their positions when it seemed prices will hit the strike price. Even medium term movement in copper and silver is all about the options market. Higher volatility has resulted in low risk traders and retail investing more in options markets due to the limited nature of risk. The fund manager tries his best to ensure that most of the retail investors do get anything in options. In my view its better to trade in spreads than in options. Spreads will give higher returns than options with slightly higher risk. Comex silver and copper May futures are expiring this month. Volatility in copper and silver spreads will rise which will give opportunity for day traders as well. One should look at inter commodity spreads as an investment option also. I prefer inter commodity spreads than single commodity spreads.

SILVER -- MAY FUTURE

Failure of silver to break $1918 in the rest of April will result in a fall to $1630 and $1554.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $112.20

Crude oil reached our target of $112.20 and fell subsequently. Crude oil is bullish over $107.10

MCXARUN
9994500540