nymex crude intraday

Oil prices continued its weakness yesterday as Tropical Storm Fay headed toward Florida's west coast and was expected to miss key operations in the Gulf of Mexico oil. But on last Friday oil fell below $112 a barrel as OPEC trimmed its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2008 for a fifth month and said production was more than adequate, paving the way for a build in inventories. Growing concerns about demand in industrial nations and the stronger dollar is also adversely affected the oil movements. Oil touched the fifteen week low of $111.70 in the last week.

Crude has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on July 11 as growing global economic problems and high fuel prices have cut demand in top consumer the United States as well as Europe. The President of OPEC Chakib Khelil called oil prices abnormal and said they could pull back to $80 a barrel over the long term if the dollar were to continue to recover and global political worries eased is also adversely affected the oil movements .

According to the International Energy Agency, the Output by the producer group rose 145,000 barrels per day in July to 32.8 million barrel per day(bpd) . And also predicted oil demand would rise by 1.0 million barrels per day this year, 30,000 bpd less than the previous forecast.

At the same time in last week, According to the report from EIA, gasoline stocks fell 6.4 million barrels, more than a forecast decline of 2.1 million barrels and U.S. crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels last week, double the forecast decline. Distillate stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.7 million barrels.

Light, sweet crude oil for September delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange traded in the range $115.35 - $112, before settling at $113.14 a barrel.

Oil price had touched an all-time high of $147.27 a barrel on 11th July but has corrected from there in the succeeding weeks.

Crude Oil (DWTI Aug.)

Crude oil price remain weak below $117.50 a barrel .But expecting a recovery above $117.50 , if sustain above that levels ,can expect more uptrend .Next levels are $120.40,$123.50 and $129. Supports are $112.50, $110.00, $105.00, and $ 99.30.

DWTI (Aug) traded in the range $115.20 - $112.10 and closed at $112.89.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCX Crude (Aug) - Bullish above $113.65; bearish below $113.00

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comex gold outlook

Gold price recovered yesterday amid weak dollar and short covering from the recent lower levels. Gold price touched a nine months low of $773.90 on last Friday and settled at $ 785.5 due to the strong dollar and fall in crude price. Dollar continued its recovery against the major currencies and recorded a six months high against the Euro on Friday.
At the same time report from World Gold Council, Global demand for gold dropped 19 percent year-on-year to 735.6 tonnes in the second quarter of 2008 as sharply higher prices and increased volatility weakened jewelry buying.

In US, Initial jobless claims for the week ending 9 August decreased by 10k to 450k, well above market expectations for a decrease to 435k vs. the revised 460k in the prior week. The 4-week average is reported at 440.5k (the highest since April 20 2002 week at 445,500) vs. the revised 421.0k (prev. 419.5k). Continuing claims for week ending 2 Aug surged higher to 3.417mn vs. the 3.303mn in previous week (prev. 3.311mn), the highest since Nov. 8 2003 week.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production was up 0.2% in July, better than expected, after a 0 .4% gain in June.

According to the report from EIA, gasoline stocks fell 6.4 million barrels, more than a forecast decline of 2.1 million barrels and U.S. crude inventories fell by 400,000 barrels last week, double the forecast decline. Distillate stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.7 million barrels.

At the same time, at the beginning of the month Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates steady at 2 percent, expressing concerns about both economic growth and inflation and indicating it is in no rush to push borrowing costs higher.

International spot gold traded in the range $803.65- $789.25 a Troy Ounce and last quoted at $798.35($785.5).

Weekly Outlook (DG. OCT.)

Gold price remain weak below $816.80. But expecting some recovery from lower levels .Resistances are $791, $802, $816.80 and $829.60. Supports are $779, $772, $764, $753 and 743

Last day DGCX Gold Oct traded in the range $806– $792and closed at $802.80

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Oct) - Bullish above $ 803.60; bearish below $ 798.40


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imp charts & outlook

click the pics to see large vie

safe trade calls

GOLD

continue to view, as long Resistance of 11550 & 11750, down rally likely to continue. for the day sell below 11325 & 11300 S/L 11350 and T/p 11240-250/ 11190-125/close below 11125 test 10950 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 11550 S/L 11520 and T/p 11610/11670 (any time close above 11750-11950/12680/12950/13550/ 13850 bullish while close below 11125 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

continue to view as long Resistance of 20500 & 21725, down rally likely to continue. for the day sell only below 11500-475 S/L 11575 and T/p 11400/ 300/200/125/towards 18900 OR buy only abv 20000 S/L 19910 and T/p 20100/200 towards 20400. anytime close below 18900 test 18450-500 atleast in coming days (any time close below 18900 bearish rally while close above 21900/22850/25000/26100/27250/ 28000 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE

PRICE TURN EXACT FROM OUR LEVEL ON BOTH SIDE. for the day sell only below 4865 S/L 4890 and T/p 4845/ 20/4780-60/close below 4760 test 4630-50 atleast in coming days OR buy only abv 5035 S/L 5010 and T/p 5070/5120 (now crude need to close above 5130/ 5475/5710/6375 for bullish rally while close below 4760 bearish for medium term)


COPPER

continue to view, as long Resistance of 325.5, down rally likely to continue. for the day sell below 315 S/L 316.5 and T/p 313.9/312/sustain below towards 308-305 OR sell ard 324.5-325 S/L 325.5 and T/p 323/ 320.75/318.75 (upside strong rally only on close above 325.5/336.5/351/360..5/371/387.5/398 while close below 302/289/265/251.5/ 235 bearish for medium term)

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