safe trade calls

GOLD


for the day buy only abv 12440-50 S/L 12415 and T/p 12500-550/towards 12600, close abv 12630 seen new rally OR sell only below 12270-250 S/L 12290 and T/p 12200-150/12050/close below test 12850-900 atleast/ towards 12700 in coming days (any time close above 12440/12630/12875/13050/ 13330/13510 bullish while close below 11920/11775/11375/11200 bearish for medium term)


SILVER

for the day buy only abv 24600-630 S/L 24510 and T/p 24775-800/sustain abv 24800 seen new rally OR sell below 24150 S/L 24210 and T/p 24025/23940/ 23870/23775/down rally(any time close below 23275/23000-22875/22300/21575 -500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 24800/25500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)


CRUDE


continue to view, as long resistance of 5925 & 6000 down rally expected. for the day sell ard 5915-20 S/L 5925 and T/p 5875-50/5810 OR sell below 5775 S/L 5800 and T/p 5740-5700/5665/5630-40/close below test 5490-5500 atleast and towards 5450 in coming days, (anytime close abv 6000 test 6125 atleast/upto 6200) (now crude need to close above 6000 for bullish rally while close below 5635/5440/5215/5100/ 4415/3890 bearish for medium term)


COPPER


we book profit on buy abv 338.5/342/ 348.5-349.5, for the day buy only abv 355 S/L 353.5 and T/p 357-357.5/ towards 361/close abv 361.5 test 370 atleast/towards 375 in coming days OR buy ard 347-347.2 S/L 346.5 and T/p 349-350/352 (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 339/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)


MCXARUN
9994500540

MCX Lead bounces from recent lows

19 June 2008 09:50:32

MCX Lead trades higher and volatile following LME, closed near 80.60 after registering days high near 83.45, market was supportive due to heavy short covering in international markets. Intra day low registered at 80.05

There's only limited scope for a further downward correction in LME lead, the expected market surplus for '08 has already been adequately priced-in, which means the market can shrug off stock rises.

LME stocks are at their highest level since August '06. LME lead trades at $1,940 a metric ton, +8% from Tuesday's low.

Lead inventories at LME, increased by 1900 MT to 96775 MT.


MCX Lead June -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 82.7 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 84.8 and 86.1, If market sustains below 81.4 can see a further fall towards 79.3 and 78.0

Recommendations –MCX Lead June: Buy at 80.00 Target 81.50 and 82.30 SL 79.20

MCXARUN
9994500540

MCX Zinc trades positive

19 June 2008 09:49:18



MCX Zinc trade positive following Southern copper crop news, registered days high of 84.35 and closed at 84.10 with net gain of 5.06% from previous closing.

Intra day low registered near 80.10

Zinc reacted to the upside on news that Southern Copper Corp. may be forced to temporarily close operations at its Ilo smelter and refinery and at its two copper mines in Peru because of protests that have cut supplies. Company officials have estimated that Southern Copper's operations in Peru will produce 330,000 tons of copper this year.

Zinc inventories at LME, decreased by -25 MT to 143825 MT.

MCX Zinc June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 85.6 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 87.1 and 89.9, If market sustains below 82.9 can see a further fall towards 81.4 and 78.6

Recommendations- MCX Zinc June: Buy at 83.80-83.50 Target 85 and 86.20 SL 82.50

MCXARUN
9994500540

Crude Oil : Bounces back on US supply data

19 June 2008 11:14:27



Oil prices recovered yesterday, after the release of US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report which showed the fifth consecutive weekly decline in the nation’s crude inventories.



Crude oil July in NYMEX settled at $136.25 yesterday, after trading in the range $131.82 - $136.88.



Crude supplies dropped by 1.2 million barrels to 301.0 million for the week ended June 13, which makes the total fall in the past five weeks to 24.8 million barrels.



But expectations that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is considering increasing its output next month have slightly eased the concerns regarding supply of oil.



Oil prices had touched a new all-time high near $140 a barrel on Monday, on reports that a fire forced Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro to halt oil production at a North Sea platform.



The oil cartel OPEC in its latest monthly oil market report released on Friday cut its estimate for 2008 global oil demand to an increase of 1.1 million barrels a day, from an increase of 1.17 million barrels projected earlier. The total global oil consumption was revised to 86.88 million barrels a day from the previous estimate of 86.95 million barrels a day.



Earlier, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for average global oil product demand in 2008 to 86.8 million barrels a day, down 80,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.



According to the latest energy-outlook report from the US Energy Information Administration, global oil consumption was up a lower than expected 630,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2008 compared with year-ago levels, against the expected growth by 1 million barrels a day.



But the US Energy Department’s weekly inventory report last week had revealed that the nation's crude supplies dropped 4.6 million barrels to 302.2 million barrels for the week ended June 6, taking the total fall in crude inventories to 23.6 million in four weeks.



Potential supply threats due to geo-political tensions and the Atlantic hurricane season and OPEC’s unwillingness to increase output despite high prices continue to underpin oil prices.



The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st. Arthur, the first Atlantic storm of the season, made landfall on Sunday near Mexico forcing the closure of two export terminals, but afterwards weakened to a tropical depression creating heavy rains in the Gulf of Mexico.



Repeated attacks on Nigerian oil facilities sustain concerns on supply from the oil–rich Niger Delta.



DWTI (July) traded in the range $132.47 - $137.25 and closed at $137.17 ($134.53).



Weekly Outlook (NYMEX Crude oil July)

Resistances are $137, $138.14 and $139.14; supports $134, $132.35, $131.30. Expecting more weakness below $132.35.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

DGCXCrude (July) - Bullish above 136.25; bearish below 135.76


MCXARUN
9994500540

Gold : Ends higher on weak Dollar, recovery in Oil

19 June 2008 11:11:53



Gold pared ended higher yesterday, as the dollar drifted lower and oil prices surged above $136 a barrel.



International spot gold traded in the range $880.45 - $894.10 and last quoted at $893.15 ($881.90).



In the absence of fresh major economic data the dollar continued to cut down the previous week gains, influenced by downbeat Housing sector and industrial production data released early this week.



According to the release by US Commerce Department on Tuesday, Housing starts fell a more-than-expected 3.3% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 975,000, the lowest level since March 1991.



In another unsupportive data for the dollar, the Federal Reserve reported a 0.2 % decrease in US industrial production in May.



Dollar had eased on Monday due to profit booking, after a meeting of the Group of Eight finance ministers in Japan steered clear of the greenback's recent exchange-rate weakness issue and focused on the rise in commodity prices and the related economic risks.



The greenback had gained sharply last week supported by expectations of an interest rate hike amid rising inflation, and strong retail sales data from the US.



The two-day meeting of Federal Open Market Committee to decide whether to adjust its benchmark interest rate from 2% is scheduled to start on June 24.



Data from the Labor Department showed a rise in US consumer prices at the fastest pace in six months, strengthening the growing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. As per the data, US consumer price index climbed 0.6% in May.



Last week, the US Commerce Department reported a 1 % rise in May retail sales, the biggest increase recorded since November, letting the US currency to add to this week’s sharp gains.



The recent data from various sectors in the US have given rather mixed hints regarding the economy.



The US trade deficit had widened 7.8% in April to a seasonally adjusted $60.9 billion from $56.5 billion in March, according to the report by US Commerce Department on Tuesday. The growing deficit was driven by a surge in crude oil imports, which eclipsed a significant gain in the nation’s exports.



The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Labor Department reported a more-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in May to 5.5%, against the expected 5.1%. The total number of unemployed persons increased by 861,000 to 8.5 million in May, after seasonal adjustment, as per the government's Household Survey Data.



According to the data released by Commerce Department, real gross domestic product of the US increased at a 0.9% annual rate in the first three months of the year, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 0.6%.



Oil prices recovered as US crude oil inventories recorded the fifth consecutive weekly decline, as reported by the US Energy Department.



Last day DGCX Gold Aug traded in the range $883.80 – $897.70 and closed at $895.80 ($886.70).



Weekly Outlook (Spot Gold)



Resistances are $874, $884, $890, $899; supports $856, $845. Some recovery is expected above $884.60. If trades below $858, spot gold may move towards $845.



DGCX Gold August



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (Aug) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 891

MCXARUN
9994500540

MCX Nickel registers weekly low following LME

19 June 2008 09:47:48

MCX Nickel dropped to a weekly low of 988 following LME movement and profit booking, Nickel closed near 1004 with net loss of 3.09% from previous closing. Intra day high registered near 1044.50

LME nickel comes under pressure due to a poor fundamental outlook and technical weakness, rising stocks amid declining demand from the stainless steel sector, along wtih "significant" resistance at the thirty-day moving average, now around $24,363/metric ton.

Nickel inventories at LME, increased by -180 MT to 46818 MT.

MCX Nickel June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The prices closed below short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading downwards in positive region, showing decrease in bullish momentum.

Technical are neutral to bearish signalling sideways to lower prices in the near term. Initial support for the market is around 980 levels. If broken can see further fall to 956 and 923, If market holds above 1012 further rally can be seen towards 1036 and 1069

Recommendations: MCX Nickel June: Sell at 1010 Target 995 and 985 SL 1022

MCXARUN
9994500540

MCX to launch futures trading in Platinum

MUMBAI: Do you want to trade in platinum futures in India? Yes, it is possible from today onwards. Multi Commodity Exchange, India's largest commodity bourse, is launching platinum futures on Thursday.

MCX, the leader in futures trading in gold, silver and crude oil, is adding another precious commodity by facilitating trading in platinum from today.

Platinum is a heavy, malleable, precious, gray-white transition metal. It is resistant to corrosion and occurs in some nickel and copper ores along with some native deposits. Platinum is used in jewelry, laboratory equipment, electrical contacts, dentistry, and automobile emissions control devices.

Platinum is actively traded abroad at Tokyo Commodity Exchange in Japan and New York Commodity Exchange (NYMAX).

According to MCX Managing Director Joseph Massey, futures trading in platinum is an important step for the exchange. "We are currently the leader in future trading in gold and silver. We are adding platinum to these precious metals group," he said.

He said with presence of a precious metal like platinum, investors will now have more opportunities for investment and the industry can hedge their requirements.

Compared to 2006-07, when 9 tonnes of metal was consumed, the fiscal 2007-08 witnessed utilisation of 10 tonnes of metal. India imports 2 tonnes of metal every year.

MCX said four contracts, each in January, April, July and October will be on offer and the trading lot will be 500 gm. The maximum order size would be 5 kg and the price quote will be ex-Mumbai. The delivery will be made only through designated warehouses from Mumbai.

The price rise witnessed in platinum since 5 years was five times. In 2003, the rates were hovering around $600. The metal at Tokyo Commodity Exchange touched its highest peak of $2,299 per ounce on April 3.

MCXARUN
9994500540

MCX Copper posted solid gains

MCX Copper closed at 354.30 with gain of 2.86% after registering days high near 354.70. Intra day low registered near 343.75

Copper futures posted solid gains as participants bought back previously sold positions on bullish trading-chart indicators, and supply news from Peru supported the metal.

Copper reacted to the upside on news that Southern Copper Corp. may be forced to temporarily close operations at its Ilo smelter and refinery and at its two copper mines in Peru because of protests that have cut supplies. Company officials have estimated that Southern Copper's operations in Peru will produce 330,000 tons of copper this year.

In addition to the Southern Copper news, Sterling Smith, vice president with FuturesOne, said participants began buying back already sold positions or short covering as they considered certain price-chart movements Wednesday as bullish.

WBMS Report;
The world copper market was in a deficit of 42,000 metric tons during the first four months of 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

This compares with a deficit of 135,800 tons for the same period of 2007. Reported stocks decreased by 95,000 tons between the beginning of January and the end of April 2008, WBMS added. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

Copper mine production for the first four months of the year was 4.93 million tons, 3.6% lower than in January to April 2007. Refined production rose 1.7% to 5.996 million tons.

Chinese copper output rose by 193,000 tons, while Indian and Zambian production was slightly higher than the previous year, but output in Chile fell by 42,000 tons.

Consumption in January to April was 6.04 million tons, virtually unchanged from the same period of the previous year. Chinese consumption increased to 1.705 million tons from 1.627 million tons in the first four months of the previous year.

In April, refined copper production was 1.518 million tons and consumption was 1.548 million tons, WBMS said.

Copper inventories at LME, increased by 350 MT to 123900 MT.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The prices closed above short term and medium term EMA, which supports bears. MACD is heading upwards in positive region, showing increase in bullish momentum.

Technical have turned neutral to bullish and market is expected to remain positive above 358.1 levels. If sustain above this level can see a rally towards 361.9 and 369.0 , If market sustains below 350.9 can see a further fall towards 347.1 and 340.0


Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 351.50-352 Targets 356 and 358 SL 349.20


MCXARUN
9994500540

GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Base metals made quite a reversal as they edged higher. A labour strike at one of Peru’s copper mines along with a technical break out resulted in gains for copper. Copper has been the key driver for base metals and looks set for more gains. Nickel has disappointed and it seems traders are exiting nickel and buying other base metals. LME Nickel (3 months) has to float over $25000 for a week to attract short term investors.

The US dollar is starting to pare its last week’s gains as more and more investors remain convinced that the Fed may cut interest rates once a year. For me in the short term to medium term the US dollar will be more influenced by the performance of eurozone and UK economies. Eurozone’s inflation, current account deficit of member countries along with growth will be the key factors for the direction of the Euro in the medium term. In our view in the short term the euro may gain but we are bearish on euro-US dollar from November 2008 and into 2009. Buying far dated euro-US dollar put options should be an excellent investment opportunity.

The rest of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 should be a topsy- turvy time for the currency markets. Unless the interest rate factor stabilises the high degree of volatility will continue. Crosses like euro/yen and euro/gbp will have a greater say than direct US dollar prices. Volatility in currency markets will benefit precious metals and commodities.

For the man on the street its only investment which is driving prices of food. Nature is driving food prices more than investment demand. Floods in south China, Australia wheat drought, floods in US Midwest and Iowa have all destroyed standing crops. These will reduce global output while demand keeps on rising.

COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $363.0

$371 price target achieved. As long as copper holds $369 it will target $386 and $394.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $131.60

As long as $130.65 holds crude oil will target $140.40 and $145.20

MCXARUN
9994500540