ENERGY INTRADAY

Energy Apr 29, 2008



Major Headlines:



* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.



* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.



* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.



* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.



* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro



* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs



* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week



* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across

Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.



* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint







MCX Crude Oil May



Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.



Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669





Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640




MCX Natural gas May



Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.



Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436



Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442

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