Energy intraday

· Crude oil rose inNew York on speculation global demand will continue to grow after prices reached a record.

· Global oil demand will rise 1.7 million barrels a day to 87.6 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Feb. 13. The U.S. Energy Department and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries also expect daily consumption to rise by more than 1 million barrels this year.

· The IEA, the adviser to 27 oil-consuming nations, predicted Nov. 7 that Chinese and Indian oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply crunch as soon as 2015.

· Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 12, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released Feb. 15.

· Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 39,922 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions rose by 12,474 contracts, or 45 percent, from a week earlier.

· Reports of explosion at Alon USA Energy Inc.'s Big Spring refinery in Texas on Monday sent crude futures higher. As per Dow Jones newswires report, a person familiar with the plant said Tuesday that full restart of the 70000 bpd refinery could take over six months.

· Despite calls to raise output, some Opec members have indicated that the oil cartel may consider cutting output at its March 5 meet taking into consideration weakening economy and demand prospects and rising inventories. Iran this week said that a cut in output cannot be ruled out.

· After U.S. President and International Energy Agency, the head of the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday reiterated calls for Opec to increase crude production to boost the world's small capacity cushion, as reported by Dow Jones newswires.

· Concerns about supply from Nigeria rose after Nigeria's Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, promised renewed attacks on oil facilities if the country's government did not explain whether Henry Okah, the group's supposed leader, had been killed in a military hospital as reported by Dow Jones newswires.

Weekly Inventory Update:



· US crude inventories rose by far more than expected in the week to Feb 15, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks rose by 4.2 mln barrels, against analysts' predictions for a 2.6 mln barrel rise.

· Meanwhile distillate stocks, which include heating oil, fell 4.5 mln barrels against expectations for a fall of 950,000 barrels. Heating oil remains in focus coming into the end of the peak winter demand period.

· Gasoline stocks rose above analysts' expectations, rising by 1.1 mln barrels against projections for a gain of just 450,000 barrels.

· Refineries meanwhile operated at 83.5 pct of their capacity, the EIA said lower than 85.1 pct in the previous week. Analysts had expected a drop of 0.2 percentage points.

MCX Crude Oil March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil March: Buy at 3900 for the target of 3980 and 4020 with stop loss at 3876

MCX Natural gas March (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations:

Natural gas March: Buy at 354 for the target of 365 and 372 with stop loss at 351

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