basemetals intraday

Base Metals
23 May 2008 10:21:47



Base Metals )

Major Economic Data

First-time claims for state unemployment dropped by 9,000 to 365,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending May 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial claims were the lowest since the week ended April 5. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 5,000 to 372,250. In the first quarter U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% -- the largest quarterly price decline on record, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Prices fell 3.1% in the past year. In the prior quarter, prices declined 1.4%. For March, prices fell 0.4%.

Statistics Canada said that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in March, up .1% on the month. They also noted that the operating profits of Canada's corporations totaled C$67.8 billion in the first quarter of 2008, down 1.1% from the previous quarter.

The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volume was down .2% in April.

Eurostat said that its index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was down 1.0% in March and down 2.5% from a year ago.

Copper

MCX Copper June traded lower following movement at LME. US Home price index and a sharp correction in bullion and energy prices supported the move. Copper dripped almost by 4%.

Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was 250 MT to 125200 MT

Chinese imports of refined copper in April rose 1.2 percent to 127,977 tons from March, the Beijing-based customs office said. That has helped drive copper inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange down 37 percent this year, while prices have gained 24 percent.

MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 342.2 If market breaches below 342.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 337.4 and 329.8 However if it holds back above 354.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 362.2 and 367.0

Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 348.50-349 target 345 and 341 SL 351.60

Nickel

Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years in London as a surplus over the past year discouraged buying.

Nickel has been in a surplus for 13 consecutive months through March, according to the International Nickel Study Group.

Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest producer of the metal used in stainless steel, lowered prices today for a second time this week after steel mills reduced usage.Nickel fell to the lowest in almost two years on the London Metal Exchange.

Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was -258 MT to 48870 MT

Jinchuan Group Co., Asia's biggest nickel producer, lowered the price of the refined metal by 4.6 percent today. That's the second price cut within a week.The price was cut by 10,000 yuan to 208,000 yuan ($29,949) a metric ton, according to a statement on the Web site of the Gansu, western China-based company. The last reduction was on May 15.

MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 984.0 If market breaches below 984.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 953.0 and 904.0 However if it holds back above 1064.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1113.0 and 1144.0

Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1020 Target 987 and 965 SL 1032

Zinc

MCX Zinc fell by more then 3.5% following other metals at LME while sharp correction in bullion and energy also supported the move.

Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was 375 MT to 128525 MT

MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.7 If market breaches below 87.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 84.8 and 80.9 However if it holds back above 94.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 98.4 and 101.3

Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30-91.50 Target 89.60 and 88 SL 92.65

Lead

Lead fell to the lowest in one year on the London Metal Exchange.

Hindustan Zinc Lowers Lead Prices by 2%, Keeps Zinc Unchanged

Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 50 MT to 63900 MT

MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 84.2 If market breaches below 84.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 81.6 and 77.0 However if it holds back above 91.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 96.1 and 98.7

Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 87.65 Target 86.60 and 85 SL 89



Aluminium

Aluminium gained for a third consecutive day, shrugging off a 4.5 percent stockpile jump to a four-year high. Options for the contract to expire next month show investors are betting that prices will stay above $3,000 a ton.

Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was 9975 MT to 1075600 MT

MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:

The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 125.3 If market breaches below 125.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 123.7 and 121.2 However if it holds back above 129.5 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 132.0 and 133.6

Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 128 Target 126 and 124.5 SL 129.15


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