energy intraday

Energy
22 May 2008 10:33:35

Major Headlines:

Oil hit a record above $132 as U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell ahead of the peak demand-driving season, which officially kicks off next week. In a weekly report issued by the Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks plunged 5.4 million barrels last week against market calls for a modest rise. Gasoline stocks also fell sharply, by 800,000 barrels against predictions for a 200,000-barrel decline, ahead of the driving season.

The U.S. consumes roughly 20.5 mln barrels per day, this means that if recent price increases are sustained, the cost of energy to U.S. consumers will increase by about $300 billion over the next twelve months.

Expected strong diesel demand from China after the Asian nation suffered a devastating earthquake last week and higher gasoline purchases from the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer, ahead of the driving season also lifted crude's value.

Meanwhile, on the supply side, Opec ministers have said again that an output Increase is unlikely; that the cartel is not responsible for higher prices and that it will not meet before September

OPEC's secretary-general said that the world oil market is well supplied, even as the price for a barrel of oil soared above $131 for the first time. OPEC chief Abdullah Salem el-Badri met Tuesday in Caracas with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Venezuela's state-run news agency quotes El-Badri as saying "there's no scarcity of oil in the market" because international oil supplies are very high

The euro surged on Wednesday to its highest in nearly a month against the dollar after a key German survey of confidence showed a surprise improvement. Such dollar weakness is also boosting crude oil

Natural gas in New York advanced as crude oil surged to a record and Stockpiles of natural gas rose 86 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 16, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The average change for the same week of the year over the past five is an increase of 91 billion cubic feet, according to U.S. Energy Department data

MCX Crude Oil June (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 5735 levels. If market breaches 5735 may see prices to take further upside towards 5811 and 5946 however if it holds back below 5524 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 5389 and 5313

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil June: Buy at 5610 Target 5680 and 5760 Stop loss 5475

MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 510.60 levels. If market breaches 510.60 may see prices to take further upside towards 516.30 and 526.60 however if it holds back below 494.60 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 484.30 and 478.60

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas June: Buy at 501 Target 504 and 510 Stop loss at 497


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