Energy Apr 30, 2008
Expected Weekly EIA Inventory:
Event Survey
Prior-2421K
expect -950K
Major Headlines:
A stronger dollar gave investors another reason to sell crude Tuesday, Commodities such as oil are less effective hedges against inflation when the dollar is gaining ground, and a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive to investors overseas. Analysts believe oil's run from $65 a year ago to a record near $120 Monday has been fuelled in large part by the dollar's protracted decline.
Oil prices plunged as workers at Scotland's biggest refinery returned to work on Tuesday after a recent strike, while expectations for the dollar to strengthen dampened sentiment for commodities across the board.
Crude oil futures fell over $2 a barrel on Tuesday as fears over U.K. supply eased and the dollar strengthened. Workers at Ineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland ended two-day strike, signaling the eventual restart of the 700,000 barrel-a-day North Sea Forties Pipeline System, or FPS.
The Grangemouth strike has come to an end and some people have seen this as a bearish sign, putting the market under pressure, But the fact that it may take a week or more for the oil flow to reach full capacity (has) kept any correction underpinned
The market will also be keeping a close eye on Nigeria, a major supplier of oil to the U.S., where a work slowdown and militant attacks have cut production.
Nigeria is clearly the key problem facing the energy markets right now, and has the potential to reignite the price advance if supply glitches drag on for much longer, or more ominously, if the majors decide to walk away from the country altogether, something they have done on prior occasions
Energy prices fell sharply Tuesday as the market-absorbed data showing demand is falling even as supplies are rising. Gas prices inched higher at the pump, continuing their record-breaking press toward $4 a gallon
Natural gas futures fell Tuesday as private forecasters called for mild, normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast from May through August, indicating gas demand might be flat or lower compared to recent years.
Earthsat and other private forecasters are predicting normal temperatures in the large gas consuming areas of the Midwest and East, based on data over the last 30 years. If anything, this summer is expected to be cooler than the last three in Chicago, New York, Boston and other areas east of the Mississippi, Setree said. Temperatures in the desert Southwest and parts of Texas could rise above normal this summer, according to Earthsat.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4739 levels. If market breaches 4739 may see prices to take further upside towards 4802and 4851 however if it holds back below 4627 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4578 and 4515
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Sell at 4730 Target 4645 and 4600 Stop loss 4780
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.30 levels. If market breaches 442.30, may see prices to take further upside towards 448.70 and 454.270 However if it holds back below 430.40 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 424.90 and 418.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Sell at 447 Target 440 and 435 Stop loss at 452
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
basemetals intraday
Base Metals April 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.
The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.
Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.
Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349
Nickel
MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182
Zinc
MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT
Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.
Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15
Lead
MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.
South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Economic Data:
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.
The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.
Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.
Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349
Nickel
MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182
Zinc
MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT
Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.
Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15
Lead
MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.
South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion Apr 30, 2008
Major Headlines:
Indian spot gold closed marginally lower led by overseas cues, and market participants said they expect Gold imports are expected to improve this month and may be at around 40-50 Tones as prices declined to the lows and also as physical buyers who were on the sidelines bought the yellow metal to stock it up before the wedding and festival season
Gold fell to a four-week low as the dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals and commodities as alternative investments. Silver also declined.
ECB Says One Member Bank Sold Gold Worth Eu18 Mln In last Week and Before yesterday, gold and commodities gained more than 30 percent in the past 12 months, while the dollar slumped 13 percent against the euro
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal today that it's close to pausing interest-rate cuts. Gold has gained 6.4 percent this year, while the euro has advanced 6.7 percent against the dollar
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of the metal, today said first-quarter output fell 24 percent to 428,600 ounces after power cuts affected South African mines. The precious metal, used to make jewelry and devices that cut exhaust emissions from cars, has climbed 28 percent this year.
Gold fell for the first time in three days in London as the dollar strengthened against the Euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against further drops in the U.S. currency. Silver and platinum also declined.
Platinum and palladium fell in New York, following gold, after the dollar rose, reducing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge.
The dollar strengthened to a three-week high against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in interest-rate cuts today after making six reductions since September. Platinum, mostly traded in dollars, rose 33 percent last year as the dollar fell 9.5 percent against the euro
Interest in gold as an alternative asset waned as the dollar rebounded in the past week from its record low against the euro, and oil's climb to as high as $119.93 a barrel yesterday failed to trigger interest in bullion as a hedge against inflation
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow and is expected to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percent tomorrow. The June U.S. dollar is trading higher as many are wondering if the seven-month campaign of interest rate cuts is about over.
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices were down 12.7% in February from a year ago. Three of the twenty cities surveyed did not show a decline
Currency Update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
The U.S. currency headed for its first monthly advance versus the yen and euro since December as traders increased bets the Fed will stop lowering borrowing costs after a quarter-percentage point reduction today.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11426 If market breaches below 11426 may see prices to take further correction towards 11372 and11279 however if it holds back above 11573 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11666 and 11720
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11540 Target11430 and 11360 Stoploss at11590
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21979 If market breaches below 21979 may see prices to take further correction towards 21809 and 21566 however if it holds back above 22392 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22635 and 22805
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22250 Target 22050 and 21860 Stop loss at 22420
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
Indian spot gold closed marginally lower led by overseas cues, and market participants said they expect Gold imports are expected to improve this month and may be at around 40-50 Tones as prices declined to the lows and also as physical buyers who were on the sidelines bought the yellow metal to stock it up before the wedding and festival season
Gold fell to a four-week low as the dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals and commodities as alternative investments. Silver also declined.
ECB Says One Member Bank Sold Gold Worth Eu18 Mln In last Week and Before yesterday, gold and commodities gained more than 30 percent in the past 12 months, while the dollar slumped 13 percent against the euro
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal today that it's close to pausing interest-rate cuts. Gold has gained 6.4 percent this year, while the euro has advanced 6.7 percent against the dollar
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of the metal, today said first-quarter output fell 24 percent to 428,600 ounces after power cuts affected South African mines. The precious metal, used to make jewelry and devices that cut exhaust emissions from cars, has climbed 28 percent this year.
Gold fell for the first time in three days in London as the dollar strengthened against the Euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against further drops in the U.S. currency. Silver and platinum also declined.
Platinum and palladium fell in New York, following gold, after the dollar rose, reducing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge.
The dollar strengthened to a three-week high against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in interest-rate cuts today after making six reductions since September. Platinum, mostly traded in dollars, rose 33 percent last year as the dollar fell 9.5 percent against the euro
Interest in gold as an alternative asset waned as the dollar rebounded in the past week from its record low against the euro, and oil's climb to as high as $119.93 a barrel yesterday failed to trigger interest in bullion as a hedge against inflation
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow and is expected to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percent tomorrow. The June U.S. dollar is trading higher as many are wondering if the seven-month campaign of interest rate cuts is about over.
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices were down 12.7% in February from a year ago. Three of the twenty cities surveyed did not show a decline
Currency Update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
The U.S. currency headed for its first monthly advance versus the yen and euro since December as traders increased bets the Fed will stop lowering borrowing costs after a quarter-percentage point reduction today.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11426 If market breaches below 11426 may see prices to take further correction towards 11372 and11279 however if it holds back above 11573 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11666 and 11720
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11540 Target11430 and 11360 Stoploss at11590
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21979 If market breaches below 21979 may see prices to take further correction towards 21809 and 21566 however if it holds back above 22392 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22635 and 22805
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22250 Target 22050 and 21860 Stop loss at 22420
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s all on the Fed meeting for precious metals and energies. Interest rate expectation has been factored in by the markets. If the Fed wants a stronger US dollar they will signal an interest rate pause. If they want a weaker US dollar they will be hawkish or may not signal an end to the interest rate cuts. A weaker US dollar has boosted the US manufacturing sector in 2008. Job losses in the US are mainly in the financial services sector while the manufacturing sector adds to jobs.
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
book profit on sell below 11775-750/ 11700/11525, for the day sell only below 11550-525 S/L 11570 and T/p 11500-450/11400-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 22400 S/L 22470 and T/p 22300-250/150/22075/down rally OR sell ard 22975-23000 S/L 23025 and T/p 22875-800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22080/21600-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23600/24500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4790 S/L 4775 and T/p 4820-30/4850 OR sell only below 4690 S/L 4710 and T/p 4655-65/ 35 upto 4600, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4790 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 349 S/L 347.75 and T/p 350.5-351/353.5/353.5/355/ close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 338.5-339 S/L 338 and T/p 340.5-342/ 344 (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/ 327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on sell below 11775-750/ 11700/11525, for the day sell only below 11550-525 S/L 11570 and T/p 11500-450/11400-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 22400 S/L 22470 and T/p 22300-250/150/22075/down rally OR sell ard 22975-23000 S/L 23025 and T/p 22875-800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22080/21600-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23600/24500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4790 S/L 4775 and T/p 4820-30/4850 OR sell only below 4690 S/L 4710 and T/p 4655-65/ 35 upto 4600, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4790 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 349 S/L 347.75 and T/p 350.5-351/353.5/353.5/355/ close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 338.5-339 S/L 338 and T/p 340.5-342/ 344 (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/ 327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view safe trade
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 877.5-873 TEST 865-50 UPTO 840 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 16 / $ 15.70 UPTO $ 15.40 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 16.30 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 108.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPRALLY TEST 126-128 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 877.5-873 TEST 865-50 UPTO 840 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 16 / $ 15.70 UPTO $ 15.40 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 16.30 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 108.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPRALLY TEST 126-128 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook
29 April 2008 10:22:52
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, as rise in oil price to new record high near $120 levels stirred up inflation concerns. Easing of the dollar against the euro also supported the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $885.75 - $895.50 and last quoted at $892.50 ($885.15)
Dollar traded range-bound, with markets awaiting the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The greenback had recovered moderately from the record low levels against the Euro earlier this week, but remained vulnerable due to persisting worries about the US economy.
The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
But according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply by 33,000 to 342,000 for the week ended April 19, against the expectations for a modest rise. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 7,250 to stand at 369,500.
Also, continuing claims fell 65,000 to 2.93 million for the week ended April 12. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million to the highest level since May 2004.
However, weakness in the housing market continued, as sales of new homes fell 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 in March as per the report by US Commerce Department.
The National Association of Realtors had reported a 2 % drop in sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in March, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million.
Also, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 2.4 % for the 12 months ending in February.
Earlier, the unexpectedly weak result from the Bank of America had dampened the investors in the banking sector and also added to concerns about the US economy. Bank of America, the second largest bank in US reported a fall in first-quarter profit due to write-downs and rising credit losses.
US consumer confidence had sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank had left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in their respective latest meetings.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March had given a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Oil prices soared to a new high near $120 a barrel on reported supply disruptions due to strike in a UK refinery, unrest in Nigeria and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $119.93 and settled at $118.83 ($118.52).
The US Energy Department had reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels in the week ending April 18.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $889.40 – $898.00 and closed at $894.10 ($888.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 890
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 April 2008 10:22:52
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, as rise in oil price to new record high near $120 levels stirred up inflation concerns. Easing of the dollar against the euro also supported the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $885.75 - $895.50 and last quoted at $892.50 ($885.15)
Dollar traded range-bound, with markets awaiting the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The greenback had recovered moderately from the record low levels against the Euro earlier this week, but remained vulnerable due to persisting worries about the US economy.
The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
But according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply by 33,000 to 342,000 for the week ended April 19, against the expectations for a modest rise. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 7,250 to stand at 369,500.
Also, continuing claims fell 65,000 to 2.93 million for the week ended April 12. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million to the highest level since May 2004.
However, weakness in the housing market continued, as sales of new homes fell 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 in March as per the report by US Commerce Department.
The National Association of Realtors had reported a 2 % drop in sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in March, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million.
Also, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 2.4 % for the 12 months ending in February.
Earlier, the unexpectedly weak result from the Bank of America had dampened the investors in the banking sector and also added to concerns about the US economy. Bank of America, the second largest bank in US reported a fall in first-quarter profit due to write-downs and rising credit losses.
US consumer confidence had sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank had left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in their respective latest meetings.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March had given a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Oil prices soared to a new high near $120 a barrel on reported supply disruptions due to strike in a UK refinery, unrest in Nigeria and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $119.93 and settled at $118.83 ($118.52).
The US Energy Department had reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels in the week ending April 18.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $889.40 – $898.00 and closed at $894.10 ($888.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 890
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4722BEARISH BELOW 4700
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11627 BEARISH BELOW 11588
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22488 BEARISH BELOW 22400
COPPER (JUNE) BULLISH ABOVE 346.40BEARISH BELOW 345.20
LEAD (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 111.50 BEARISH BELOW 110.80
NICKEL (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 1182 BEARISH BELOW 1175
ZINC (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11627 BEARISH BELOW 11588
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22488 BEARISH BELOW 22400
COPPER (JUNE) BULLISH ABOVE 346.40BEARISH BELOW 345.20
LEAD (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 111.50 BEARISH BELOW 110.80
NICKEL (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 1182 BEARISH BELOW 1175
ZINC (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
ENERGY INTRADAY
Energy Apr 29, 2008
Major Headlines:
* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.
* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.
* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.
* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro
* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs
* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week
* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across
Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.
* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.
* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.
* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro
* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs
* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week
* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across
Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442
MCXARUN
9994500540
BASEMETALS INTRADAY
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 347.9 levels. If market breaches 347.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.3 and 351.6, however if it holds back below 344.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 341.9 and 340.5
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344.50-344 Target 349 and 354 Stop loss at 341.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel remains mixed, as initially market shown some gains but settled near previous closing, movement was silent as no much movement is seen at LME.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –168 MT to 51774 MT
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, OAO Metalloinvest, and Russian Technologies Corp. have agreed in principle to bid for Udokan, Russia's largest untapped copper field, Kommersant reported.
The group wants to develop the deposit on equal terms, the Moscow-based newspaper reported, citing a letter to President Vladimir Putin from Sergei Chemezov, chief executive officer of state-owned Russian Technologies.
The Philippines shipped 72 percent less nickel ore to China in March than a year earlier as prices of refined nickel dropped, reducing the appeal of the cheaper alternative raw material for making stainless steel.
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1185.7 levels. If market breaches 1185.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 1192.8 and 1198.7, however if it holds back below 1172.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1166.8 and 1159.7
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1174-1172 Target 1185 and 1196 Stop loss at 1167
Zinc
MCX Zinc May traded mixed in tight range of 91.80–93.35 although market remain slightly negative at LME.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –225 MT to 128550 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 93.2 levels. If market breaches 93.2 may see prices to take further upside towards 94.1 and 94.8, however if it holds back below 91.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 91.0 and 90.1
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Buy at 92 Target 93 and 94 Stop loss at 91.00
Lead
MCX Lead traded slightly up following major changes at LME.
Lme lead inventory rises 1.8% to highest since October 2006; Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1000 MT to 55850 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 112.2 levels. If market breaches 110.1 may see prices to take further upside towards 113.0 and 114.0, however if it holds back below 110.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 109.3 and 108.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Buy at 110.80-110.60 Target 112.20 and 113.60 Stop loss at 110.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May treaded mixed and in tight range of 119 – 120, following movement at LME.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –950 MT to 1042825 MT
Japan's aluminium product shipments dropped 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the seventh straight month of decline, the Japan Aluminium Association said.
Shipments fell to 193,573 metric tons, led by a decrease in demand from builders and beverage can makers, the association said in a statement today.
World aluminium inventory expanded to 2.85 million metric tons in March from the preceding month, according to the International Aluminium Institute.
Stockpiles of the metal, including unprocessed scrap and mill products, totalled 2.83 million tons in February, the London-based IAI said on its Web site today. The IAI is funded by aluminium producers and represents 70 percent of global output.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 119.9 levels. If market breaches 119.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 120.4 and 120.9, however if it holds back below 118.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 118.4 and 117.9
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 119 Target 120 and 121 Stoploss 118.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 347.9 levels. If market breaches 347.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.3 and 351.6, however if it holds back below 344.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 341.9 and 340.5
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 344.50-344 Target 349 and 354 Stop loss at 341.50
Nickel
MCX Nickel remains mixed, as initially market shown some gains but settled near previous closing, movement was silent as no much movement is seen at LME.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –168 MT to 51774 MT
OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, OAO Metalloinvest, and Russian Technologies Corp. have agreed in principle to bid for Udokan, Russia's largest untapped copper field, Kommersant reported.
The group wants to develop the deposit on equal terms, the Moscow-based newspaper reported, citing a letter to President Vladimir Putin from Sergei Chemezov, chief executive officer of state-owned Russian Technologies.
The Philippines shipped 72 percent less nickel ore to China in March than a year earlier as prices of refined nickel dropped, reducing the appeal of the cheaper alternative raw material for making stainless steel.
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1185.7 levels. If market breaches 1185.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 1192.8 and 1198.7, however if it holds back below 1172.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1166.8 and 1159.7
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1174-1172 Target 1185 and 1196 Stop loss at 1167
Zinc
MCX Zinc May traded mixed in tight range of 91.80–93.35 although market remain slightly negative at LME.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –225 MT to 128550 MT
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 93.2 levels. If market breaches 93.2 may see prices to take further upside towards 94.1 and 94.8, however if it holds back below 91.7 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 91.0 and 90.1
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Buy at 92 Target 93 and 94 Stop loss at 91.00
Lead
MCX Lead traded slightly up following major changes at LME.
Lme lead inventory rises 1.8% to highest since October 2006; Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1000 MT to 55850 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 112.2 levels. If market breaches 110.1 may see prices to take further upside towards 113.0 and 114.0, however if it holds back below 110.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 109.3 and 108.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Buy at 110.80-110.60 Target 112.20 and 113.60 Stop loss at 110.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May treaded mixed and in tight range of 119 – 120, following movement at LME.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –950 MT to 1042825 MT
Japan's aluminium product shipments dropped 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the seventh straight month of decline, the Japan Aluminium Association said.
Shipments fell to 193,573 metric tons, led by a decrease in demand from builders and beverage can makers, the association said in a statement today.
World aluminium inventory expanded to 2.85 million metric tons in March from the preceding month, according to the International Aluminium Institute.
Stockpiles of the metal, including unprocessed scrap and mill products, totalled 2.83 million tons in February, the London-based IAI said on its Web site today. The IAI is funded by aluminium producers and represents 70 percent of global output.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 119.9 levels. If market breaches 119.9 may see prices to take further upside towards 120.4 and 120.9, however if it holds back below 118.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 118.4 and 117.9
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 119 Target 120 and 121 Stoploss 118.30
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion Apr 29, 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Fed will slow the pace of U.S. interest-rate cuts, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. Gold's next move depends on this week's Federal Reserve meeting today and tomorrow, if they signal any pause in the U.S.interest rate cutting cycle that would put pressure on commodities as the dollar might strengthen
Gold climbed the most in eight days in London as crude oil rose to a record, boosting demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation n
The Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet on April 29-30 to discuss the economy and interest rates. Gold has gained 7.3 percent so far this year as central bankers have cut the overnight lending rate between banks by 2 percentage points to 2.25 percent.
India spot gold edged higher at close Monday on overseas leads amid moderate demand witnessed in the domestic market, trade participants said. In London, gold edged up on heightened inflation fears created by surging oil prices, but gains were capped by a recovery in the U.S. dollar, as investors await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting
Gold advanced in New York as oil rose to a record, strengthening the appeal of the precious metal as hedge against inflation
Still, gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of U.S.interest-rate cuts, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative to the dollar
Investment in the Street racks Gold Trust dropped to 591.19 metric tons on April 24, marking the first time the fund has fallen below 600 tons since November. The trust reached a record 663.8 tons on March 17
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and may reduce the federal funds rate once again.
Non-farm payrolls, due from the Labor Department on May 2,fell by 78,000 in April and the jobless rate rose to 5.2 percent this month, according to separate Bloomberg surveys.
Currency Update:
The yen fell against the euro, Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone as rising commodity prices spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
Bank of America recommended investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days. The second-largest U.S. bank has pushed back its forecast for the timing of an ECB interest-rate cut from September to October. The ECB's benchmark rate is 4 percent
The euro was supported after an industry report showed German consumer confidence unexpectedly increased to a seven-month high for May as rising incomes encouraged spending. ECB policy makers also suggested interest rates need to stay high to fight inflation.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11561 If market breaches below 11561 may see prices to take further correction towards 11506 and 11462 However if it holds back above 11660 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11704 and 11759
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11680 Target11610 and 11560 Stoploss at11730
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22249 If market breaches below 22249 may see prices to take further correction towards 22033 and 21846 However if it holds back above 22652 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22839 and 23055
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22690 Target 22350 and 22150 Stop loss at 22860
MCXARUN
999450540
Major Headlines:
Gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Fed will slow the pace of U.S. interest-rate cuts, according to a survey by Bloomberg News. Gold's next move depends on this week's Federal Reserve meeting today and tomorrow, if they signal any pause in the U.S.interest rate cutting cycle that would put pressure on commodities as the dollar might strengthen
Gold climbed the most in eight days in London as crude oil rose to a record, boosting demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation n
The Fed policy makers are scheduled to meet on April 29-30 to discuss the economy and interest rates. Gold has gained 7.3 percent so far this year as central bankers have cut the overnight lending rate between banks by 2 percentage points to 2.25 percent.
India spot gold edged higher at close Monday on overseas leads amid moderate demand witnessed in the domestic market, trade participants said. In London, gold edged up on heightened inflation fears created by surging oil prices, but gains were capped by a recovery in the U.S. dollar, as investors await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting
Gold advanced in New York as oil rose to a record, strengthening the appeal of the precious metal as hedge against inflation
Still, gold may fall for a third straight week on speculation the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of U.S.interest-rate cuts, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative to the dollar
Investment in the Street racks Gold Trust dropped to 591.19 metric tons on April 24, marking the first time the fund has fallen below 600 tons since November. The trust reached a record 663.8 tons on March 17
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and Wednesday and may reduce the federal funds rate once again.
Non-farm payrolls, due from the Labor Department on May 2,fell by 78,000 in April and the jobless rate rose to 5.2 percent this month, according to separate Bloomberg surveys.
Currency Update:
The yen fell against the euro, Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone as rising commodity prices spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
Bank of America recommended investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days. The second-largest U.S. bank has pushed back its forecast for the timing of an ECB interest-rate cut from September to October. The ECB's benchmark rate is 4 percent
The euro was supported after an industry report showed German consumer confidence unexpectedly increased to a seven-month high for May as rising incomes encouraged spending. ECB policy makers also suggested interest rates need to stay high to fight inflation.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11561 If market breaches below 11561 may see prices to take further correction towards 11506 and 11462 However if it holds back above 11660 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11704 and 11759
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11680 Target11610 and 11560 Stoploss at11730
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22249 If market breaches below 22249 may see prices to take further correction towards 22033 and 21846 However if it holds back above 22652 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22839 and 23055
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22690 Target 22350 and 22150 Stop loss at 22860
MCXARUN
999450540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is in the “final stages” of launching the kingdom’s first sovereign wealth fund (SWF). The SWF would be set up with initial capital of SR20bn ($5.3bn). The amount of investment by Gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries will only rise and is an indirect way of moving away from the US dollar based investments. How much of the money in SWFs will move into gold remains to be seen. GCC counties official foreign exchange reserves will continue to swell as long term bullishness for crude oil prices is on the rise. The size of the GCC SWF will only rise over the coming years and will help to sustain the long term US dollar weakness story.
There is speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates this time and then shift the focus to inflation from growth. The net addition to US non farm payrolls is still negative and may remain in the negative territory for some time. The Fed may pause in June and then cut interest rates from September. Technically the US dollar has formed a short term bottom against the major currencies and should rise. The Fed meeting will be the key, till then day traders and jobbers will prefer to sit on the fence.
It will be a volatile day for gold, silver and copper. If they fail to rise then there will be sellers and key medium term technical support may be broken. On the other hand if they hold the last week low, then they may have bottomed out for the rest of the week.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Failure of gold to break and close over $931 on Friday will result in fall to $871 and $848.60 in May.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
Failure of crude oil to break $121.60 this week will result in a fall to $116.20 and $113.80 this week.
MCXARUN
9994500540
There is speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates this time and then shift the focus to inflation from growth. The net addition to US non farm payrolls is still negative and may remain in the negative territory for some time. The Fed may pause in June and then cut interest rates from September. Technically the US dollar has formed a short term bottom against the major currencies and should rise. The Fed meeting will be the key, till then day traders and jobbers will prefer to sit on the fence.
It will be a volatile day for gold, silver and copper. If they fail to rise then there will be sellers and key medium term technical support may be broken. On the other hand if they hold the last week low, then they may have bottomed out for the rest of the week.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Failure of gold to break and close over $931 on Friday will result in fall to $871 and $848.60 in May.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
Failure of crude oil to break $121.60 this week will result in a fall to $116.20 and $113.80 this week.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Friday, April 25, 2008
safe trade
GOLD
Turn Exact from our Support level. book profit on sell below 11775-750/11700, fresh sell below 11525 S/L 11550 and T/p 11450-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 22800/22500-400, for the day sell below 22100-22050 S/L 22180 and T/p 22000/900/800 upto 22750 OR sell ard 22560-75 S/L 22600 and T/p 22425/22275 (any time close below 22050/21325-250/ 20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23400/24275/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Turn exact from our given support level. for the day sell only below 4575 S/L 4600 and T/p 4550-20 OR sell ard 4700-10 S/L 4715 and T/p 4665-4640, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4740 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/ 4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 341.5 S/L 343 and T/p 339-338/335.5/close below test 328-30 atleast OR buy abv 348 S/L 346.5 and T/p 350-51/353.5/355/close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/327/310.5-303/281/267.5/ 254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
Turn Exact from our Support level. book profit on sell below 11775-750/11700, fresh sell below 11525 S/L 11550 and T/p 11450-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 22800/22500-400, for the day sell below 22100-22050 S/L 22180 and T/p 22000/900/800 upto 22750 OR sell ard 22560-75 S/L 22600 and T/p 22425/22275 (any time close below 22050/21325-250/ 20150/19390/ 18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23400/24275/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
Turn exact from our given support level. for the day sell only below 4575 S/L 4600 and T/p 4550-20 OR sell ard 4700-10 S/L 4715 and T/p 4665-4640, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4740 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/ 4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day sell only below 341.5 S/L 343 and T/p 339-338/335.5/close below test 328-30 atleast OR buy abv 348 S/L 346.5 and T/p 350-51/353.5/355/close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/327/310.5-303/281/267.5/ 254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Base Metals April 25, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that job claims were down 33,000 last week to 342,000, less than expected and the lowest in tow months.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .3% in March, the third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5% on the month, stronger than expected.
The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 526,000 in March, down 8.5% from February's pace and down 36.6% from a year ago. New homes for sale represent an 11-month supply.
Copper
MCX Copper April traded in tight range of 341 –348 following overseas market, as marketis over all mixed despite the bearish news of China demand and bullish news of mine strike.
Codelco news still in focus, reopening of El Teniente doesn't mean complete solution to contract workers' strike, Andina, El Salvador divisions still closed.
Copper prices balanced between supportive influence of output losses in Chile, potentially bearish influence of weaker Chinese demand.
Problems playing out against backdrop of general intensification of supply issues in mining, latest evidence from BHP Billiton production report, showing 8% Q1 drop in copper output mostly because of lower grades, recoveries at Escondida in Chile.
LME copper bouncing on either side of $8,500/ton on strike, currency factors. Prices needs to close above $8,800 or below $8,200 to confirm fresh direction. MCX Copper June range is 354 to 329 Current Market Price : 344.30
Data released by the General Administration of Customs this week show that China's imports of refined copper in March fell 38% on the year to 126,421 metric tons. Total imports in the first quarter fell 19% on the year to 390,735 tons.
China's declining imports of copper indicate that the voracious appetite of the world's largest consumer may be waning as London Metal Exchange prices hold at near-record highs.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was –275 MT to 112200 MT
China copper market is seen softening short term due to an inventories build in 1Q as LME/Shanghai arbitrage favours imports, Sees consumption growth slowing to 12% from 18%, around 535,000 tons.
MCX Copper April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 347.3 levels. If market breaches 347.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 350.7 and 353.4, however if it holds back below 341.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.5 and 335.1
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Sell at 345-346 Target 341 and 339 Stop loss 348.50
Nickel
Nickel traded positive for the day following bullish news from International Nickel Study Groups. INSG says that World primary nickel consumption is estimated to grow by 13% in 2008 to reach 1.47 million tons, up from 1.33 million tons in 2007. MCX Nickel April traded above 1150 was up almost by 1% despite other base metals remains negative.
World primary nickel consumption is expected to reach a record high in 2008 due to a recovery in nickel-containing stainless steel production around the world, particularly in China, the International Nickel Study Group said Thursday.
However, at the same time production is forecast to grow outstripping demand by 70,000 metric tons, according to data from the INSG.
World primary nickel consumption is estimated to grow by 13% in 2008 to reach 1.47 million tons, up from 1.33 million tons in 2007. Primary nickel consumption declined in 2007 on the year from 1.4 million tons in 2006, INSG said.
World primary refined nickel production is forecast to increase by 6.9% in 2008 to 1.54 million tons. INSG said primary refined nickel production was 1.44 million tons in 2007, which was up from 1.35 million tons in 2006. The 2008 figure does not include any adjustment factor for possible production disruptions, INSG said.
Prices of nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange have fallen as much as 52% since the record high of $51,800 a ton in May 2007 due partly to a slowdown in stainless steel consumption and the development of a substitute called nickel pig iron in China. Stainless steel is the biggest consumer market for nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –288 MT to 51978 MT
MCX Nickel April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1163.0 levels. If market breaches 1163.0 may see prices to take further upside towards 1170.0 and 1180.0, however if it holds back below 1146.0 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1136.0 and 1129.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1160-1157 Target 1138 and 1130 Stop loss 1171
Zinc
MCX Zinc April traded mixed on Thursday, market maintained a tight range of 89.95 to 88.35.
The global zinc market is seen in 215,000 metric ton surplus in 2008, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said Thursday.
Global zinc demand is seen rising to 11.85 million tons in 2008, mainly due to growth in Asia, while world output of refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 6.4% to 12.06 million tons, the ILZSG said.
Chinese demand is forecast to rise by 10.4% primarily as a consequence of further investment in domestic infrastructure. Demand is also expected to increase in India, Japan, South Korea and Thailand, according to the ILZSG.
Refined production in India will get a boost from Hindustan Zinc's second 170,000-ton-a-year refinery that was commissioned in December 2007. Production increases are forecast in a number of other countries including Canada, Iran, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Peru and the U.S., ILZSG said. World output of refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 6.4% to 12.06 million tons, with further significant increases expected in China and India.
Meanwhile global zinc mine production is expected to increase by 10.4% to 12.08 million tons according to the ILZSG, driven by Bolivian output after last year's opening of Apex Silver's San Cristobal mine.
Chinese net exports of refined zinc metal this year are expected to be significantly lower than in 2007 mainly as a result of rising domestic demand.However, net imports of zinc contained in zinc concentrates in 2008 are forecast to remain close to the record levels achieved in 2007, the ILZSG said.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –650 MT to 128975 MT
MCX Zinc April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.3 If market breaches below 88.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 87.5 and 86.7, However if it holds back above 89.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 90.7 and 91.5
Recommendations-MCX Zinc April: Sell at 89.00–89.50 Target 87.50 and 86.70 Stop loss 89.95
Lead
MCX Lead traded weak following other metals as ILZSG said that Global lead mine production is forecast to increase by 8.4% to 3.91 million tons in 2008. Heave stock in at LME warehouse also supported the movement.
The world market for refined lead is expected to be in a surplus of 26,000 metric tons during 2008 with both global demand for and production of refined lead forecast to increase, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said Thursday.
Global lead mine production is forecast to increase by 8.4% to 3.91 million tons in 2008. Global refined lead production is predicted to increase by 4.3% to 8.6 million tons in 2008. And global lead demand is forecast to rise by 3.9% to 8.57 million tons, the ILZSG said.
Demand in Europe for refined lead metal will decline by 2% in 2008 and remain roughly unchanged on the year in the U.S., the ILZSG said.
However, demand growth of 12.7% is forecast in China, and this, combined with expected increases in demand in India, Japan and South Korea, will drive an overall global increase in demand, it said.
European mine output should rise following the recent reopening of mines in Macedonia and Portugal. Output increases are also forecast in Australia, Bolivia, Canada, China, Iran, Mexico, Peru and the U.S.
Global refined lead production is predicted to increase in 2008 driven primarily by further increases in China.
Less favorable tax incentives combined with higher domestic demand are expected to continue to restrict the quantity of refined lead shipped out of China and it is anticipated that the volume of net exports will be 11% lower than in 2007.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1100 MT to 54750 MT
MCX Lead April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 109.7 If market breaches below 109.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 108.7 and 107.3, However if it holds back above 112.2 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 113.6 and 114.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead April: Sell at 111- 110.80 Target 109 and 107.50 Stop loss 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium April traded weak following other metals counter, a strong dollar and weak metals prices supported the movement, while heavy inventory in at LME dropped metal heavily.
Dollar remains generally firm in early US session despite mixed data. On the positive side, jobless claims unexpected fell to a two month low of 342k. Even though headline durable goods orders dropped for the third consecutive by -0.3% in March, the details were indeed solid.
Ex-transport orders rose strongly by 1.5% while ex-defence orders also climbed 0.3%. However, deterioration in the housing market is still clearly seen in another month of disappointing new home sales which dropped sharply by -8.5% to 526k annualised rate in March.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 11900 MT to 1038850 MT
MCX Aluminium April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 121.4 levels. If market breaches 121.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 123.4 and 124.3, however if it holds back below 118.5 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 117.6 and 115.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 118.50 Target 120 and 122 Stop loss at 117.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Economic Data:
The U.S. Labor Department said that job claims were down 33,000 last week to 342,000, less than expected and the lowest in tow months.
The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .3% in March, the third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5% on the month, stronger than expected.
The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 526,000 in March, down 8.5% from February's pace and down 36.6% from a year ago. New homes for sale represent an 11-month supply.
Copper
MCX Copper April traded in tight range of 341 –348 following overseas market, as marketis over all mixed despite the bearish news of China demand and bullish news of mine strike.
Codelco news still in focus, reopening of El Teniente doesn't mean complete solution to contract workers' strike, Andina, El Salvador divisions still closed.
Copper prices balanced between supportive influence of output losses in Chile, potentially bearish influence of weaker Chinese demand.
Problems playing out against backdrop of general intensification of supply issues in mining, latest evidence from BHP Billiton production report, showing 8% Q1 drop in copper output mostly because of lower grades, recoveries at Escondida in Chile.
LME copper bouncing on either side of $8,500/ton on strike, currency factors. Prices needs to close above $8,800 or below $8,200 to confirm fresh direction. MCX Copper June range is 354 to 329 Current Market Price : 344.30
Data released by the General Administration of Customs this week show that China's imports of refined copper in March fell 38% on the year to 126,421 metric tons. Total imports in the first quarter fell 19% on the year to 390,735 tons.
China's declining imports of copper indicate that the voracious appetite of the world's largest consumer may be waning as London Metal Exchange prices hold at near-record highs.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was –275 MT to 112200 MT
China copper market is seen softening short term due to an inventories build in 1Q as LME/Shanghai arbitrage favours imports, Sees consumption growth slowing to 12% from 18%, around 535,000 tons.
MCX Copper April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 347.3 levels. If market breaches 347.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 350.7 and 353.4, however if it holds back below 341.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 338.5 and 335.1
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Sell at 345-346 Target 341 and 339 Stop loss 348.50
Nickel
Nickel traded positive for the day following bullish news from International Nickel Study Groups. INSG says that World primary nickel consumption is estimated to grow by 13% in 2008 to reach 1.47 million tons, up from 1.33 million tons in 2007. MCX Nickel April traded above 1150 was up almost by 1% despite other base metals remains negative.
World primary nickel consumption is expected to reach a record high in 2008 due to a recovery in nickel-containing stainless steel production around the world, particularly in China, the International Nickel Study Group said Thursday.
However, at the same time production is forecast to grow outstripping demand by 70,000 metric tons, according to data from the INSG.
World primary nickel consumption is estimated to grow by 13% in 2008 to reach 1.47 million tons, up from 1.33 million tons in 2007. Primary nickel consumption declined in 2007 on the year from 1.4 million tons in 2006, INSG said.
World primary refined nickel production is forecast to increase by 6.9% in 2008 to 1.54 million tons. INSG said primary refined nickel production was 1.44 million tons in 2007, which was up from 1.35 million tons in 2006. The 2008 figure does not include any adjustment factor for possible production disruptions, INSG said.
Prices of nickel traded on the London Metal Exchange have fallen as much as 52% since the record high of $51,800 a ton in May 2007 due partly to a slowdown in stainless steel consumption and the development of a substitute called nickel pig iron in China. Stainless steel is the biggest consumer market for nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –288 MT to 51978 MT
MCX Nickel April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1163.0 levels. If market breaches 1163.0 may see prices to take further upside towards 1170.0 and 1180.0, however if it holds back below 1146.0 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1136.0 and 1129.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1160-1157 Target 1138 and 1130 Stop loss 1171
Zinc
MCX Zinc April traded mixed on Thursday, market maintained a tight range of 89.95 to 88.35.
The global zinc market is seen in 215,000 metric ton surplus in 2008, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said Thursday.
Global zinc demand is seen rising to 11.85 million tons in 2008, mainly due to growth in Asia, while world output of refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 6.4% to 12.06 million tons, the ILZSG said.
Chinese demand is forecast to rise by 10.4% primarily as a consequence of further investment in domestic infrastructure. Demand is also expected to increase in India, Japan, South Korea and Thailand, according to the ILZSG.
Refined production in India will get a boost from Hindustan Zinc's second 170,000-ton-a-year refinery that was commissioned in December 2007. Production increases are forecast in a number of other countries including Canada, Iran, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Peru and the U.S., ILZSG said. World output of refined zinc metal is forecast to rise by 6.4% to 12.06 million tons, with further significant increases expected in China and India.
Meanwhile global zinc mine production is expected to increase by 10.4% to 12.08 million tons according to the ILZSG, driven by Bolivian output after last year's opening of Apex Silver's San Cristobal mine.
Chinese net exports of refined zinc metal this year are expected to be significantly lower than in 2007 mainly as a result of rising domestic demand.However, net imports of zinc contained in zinc concentrates in 2008 are forecast to remain close to the record levels achieved in 2007, the ILZSG said.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –650 MT to 128975 MT
MCX Zinc April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 88.3 If market breaches below 88.3 may see prices to take further correction towards 87.5 and 86.7, However if it holds back above 89.9 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 90.7 and 91.5
Recommendations-MCX Zinc April: Sell at 89.00–89.50 Target 87.50 and 86.70 Stop loss 89.95
Lead
MCX Lead traded weak following other metals as ILZSG said that Global lead mine production is forecast to increase by 8.4% to 3.91 million tons in 2008. Heave stock in at LME warehouse also supported the movement.
The world market for refined lead is expected to be in a surplus of 26,000 metric tons during 2008 with both global demand for and production of refined lead forecast to increase, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group said Thursday.
Global lead mine production is forecast to increase by 8.4% to 3.91 million tons in 2008. Global refined lead production is predicted to increase by 4.3% to 8.6 million tons in 2008. And global lead demand is forecast to rise by 3.9% to 8.57 million tons, the ILZSG said.
Demand in Europe for refined lead metal will decline by 2% in 2008 and remain roughly unchanged on the year in the U.S., the ILZSG said.
However, demand growth of 12.7% is forecast in China, and this, combined with expected increases in demand in India, Japan and South Korea, will drive an overall global increase in demand, it said.
European mine output should rise following the recent reopening of mines in Macedonia and Portugal. Output increases are also forecast in Australia, Bolivia, Canada, China, Iran, Mexico, Peru and the U.S.
Global refined lead production is predicted to increase in 2008 driven primarily by further increases in China.
Less favorable tax incentives combined with higher domestic demand are expected to continue to restrict the quantity of refined lead shipped out of China and it is anticipated that the volume of net exports will be 11% lower than in 2007.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 1100 MT to 54750 MT
MCX Lead April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 109.7 If market breaches below 109.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 108.7 and 107.3, However if it holds back above 112.2 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 113.6 and 114.6
Recommendations –MCX Lead April: Sell at 111- 110.80 Target 109 and 107.50 Stop loss 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium April traded weak following other metals counter, a strong dollar and weak metals prices supported the movement, while heavy inventory in at LME dropped metal heavily.
Dollar remains generally firm in early US session despite mixed data. On the positive side, jobless claims unexpected fell to a two month low of 342k. Even though headline durable goods orders dropped for the third consecutive by -0.3% in March, the details were indeed solid.
Ex-transport orders rose strongly by 1.5% while ex-defence orders also climbed 0.3%. However, deterioration in the housing market is still clearly seen in another month of disappointing new home sales which dropped sharply by -8.5% to 526k annualised rate in March.
Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was 11900 MT to 1038850 MT
MCX Aluminium April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 121.4 levels. If market breaches 121.4 may see prices to take further upside towards 123.4 and 124.3, however if it holds back below 118.5 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 117.6 and 115.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 118.50 Target 120 and 122 Stop loss at 117.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intraday
Bullion Apr 25, 2008
Major Headlines:
* Gold futures reacted sharply, with the June contract dropping $20.30 to $888.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling as low as $884.50, its lowest level since Jan. 10. Gold has fallen 8 percent since March and is nearly $150 off its all-time high of $1,038.60
* Gold broke through the $900 level for the second time this month as participants continued to be frustrated by the metal's recent lack of response to outside drivers and by investor apathy and dollar strengthened, oil declined and the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund saw a marked drop in holdings.
· Gold fell for the second straight day in New York as the dollar extended gains from the lowest ever against the euro. Silver also declined. The euro has dropped as much as 2.1 percent from the record $1.6019 on April 22 amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest-rate cuts.
· The 15-nation currency's decline versus the dollar was the biggest in more than a week as orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment rose more than forecast last month. Returns from investing in commodities have surged this year, with natural gas topping all others, including oil, gold, and silver
Assets in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, fell for a second consecutive day. Gold held by the company declined by about 11.7 metric tons, or1.9 percent, to 611.8 tons, according to figures on the StreetTracks
· Aquarius Platinum Ltd. Said fiscal third-quarter production fell to its lowest since the end of 2005 after a walkout by workers and power cuts in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Production of platinum-group metals in the quarter ended in March fell to 111,524 ounces, from 137,456 ounces in the previous quarter. Full-year output should be 520,000 to 530,000 ounces, compared with 530,276 ounces last year, Aquarius said. Platinum and palladium are used in jewellery and auto catalysts to reduce vehicle pollution
U.S. Economy:
· The U.S. Labor Department said that job claims were down 33,000 last week to 342,000, less than expected and the lowest in tow months.
· The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .3% in March, the third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5% on the month, stronger than expected.
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 526,000 in March, down 8.5% from February's pace and down 36.6% from a year ago. New homes for sale represent an 11-month supply.
Currency Update:
· The IFO Institute's index of German business sentiment fell from 104.8 to 102.4 in April, weaker than expected. The June euro is trading lower.
· The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were down .4% in March, weaker than expected.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11470 If market breaches below 11470, may see prices to take further correction towards 11375 and 11225 However if it holds back above 11711, may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11861 and 11954
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11630 Target11530 and 11470 Stoploss at11680
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21950 If market breaches below 21970 may see prices to take further correction towards 21740 and 21355 However if it holds back above 22585 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22970 and 23200
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22270 Target 22100 and 21950 Stop loss at 22430
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
* Gold futures reacted sharply, with the June contract dropping $20.30 to $888.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier falling as low as $884.50, its lowest level since Jan. 10. Gold has fallen 8 percent since March and is nearly $150 off its all-time high of $1,038.60
* Gold broke through the $900 level for the second time this month as participants continued to be frustrated by the metal's recent lack of response to outside drivers and by investor apathy and dollar strengthened, oil declined and the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund saw a marked drop in holdings.
· Gold fell for the second straight day in New York as the dollar extended gains from the lowest ever against the euro. Silver also declined. The euro has dropped as much as 2.1 percent from the record $1.6019 on April 22 amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may slow the pace of interest-rate cuts.
· The 15-nation currency's decline versus the dollar was the biggest in more than a week as orders for U.S. durable goods excluding transportation equipment rose more than forecast last month. Returns from investing in commodities have surged this year, with natural gas topping all others, including oil, gold, and silver
Assets in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, fell for a second consecutive day. Gold held by the company declined by about 11.7 metric tons, or1.9 percent, to 611.8 tons, according to figures on the StreetTracks
· Aquarius Platinum Ltd. Said fiscal third-quarter production fell to its lowest since the end of 2005 after a walkout by workers and power cuts in South Africa and Zimbabwe. Production of platinum-group metals in the quarter ended in March fell to 111,524 ounces, from 137,456 ounces in the previous quarter. Full-year output should be 520,000 to 530,000 ounces, compared with 530,276 ounces last year, Aquarius said. Platinum and palladium are used in jewellery and auto catalysts to reduce vehicle pollution
U.S. Economy:
· The U.S. Labor Department said that job claims were down 33,000 last week to 342,000, less than expected and the lowest in tow months.
· The U.S. Commerce Department said that durable goods orders were down .3% in March, the third consecutive monthly decline. Excluding transportation, orders were up 1.5% on the month, stronger than expected.
· The U.S. Census Bureau said that new home sales were at an annual rate of 526,000 in March, down 8.5% from February's pace and down 36.6% from a year ago. New homes for sale represent an 11-month supply.
Currency Update:
· The IFO Institute's index of German business sentiment fell from 104.8 to 102.4 in April, weaker than expected. The June euro is trading lower.
· The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics said that retail sales were down .4% in March, weaker than expected.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11470 If market breaches below 11470, may see prices to take further correction towards 11375 and 11225 However if it holds back above 11711, may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11861 and 11954
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11630 Target11530 and 11470 Stoploss at11680
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21950 If market breaches below 21970 may see prices to take further correction towards 21740 and 21355 However if it holds back above 22585 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22970 and 23200
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22270 Target 22100 and 21950 Stop loss at 22430
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s the US dollar story for precious metals, base metals and energies. US dollar gains, the invincible crude oil also falls. The big question is whether the US dollar has bottomed out against the major’s. In my view, we need to wait and watch for the Fed meeting and the April payrolls next week. If and only if both of them confirm that the US economy will recover, albeit at a snails pace over the coming months that the US will continue to gain else gains on the greenback will be used as an opportunity to go short. Growth differentials between US and other nations will play a key role for the US dollar over the next few months. The lagging effects of higher food and energy prices will be felt globally over the next few months which will set the tone for the US dollar against emerging market currencies.
Commodity markets are very volatile. If one trades against the trend, all his stop losses get triggered. However the volatility has followed the medium term technical charts. Sometimes short term technical charts give reverse trading signals. As and when short covering comes, commodities will gain. The short term technical picture is still negative.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
If copper fails to break $404 next week then a fall to $378 and $354 is in the cards. Copper is unfazed by Chile mine worker strike news.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.
A close below $116.20 will result in $114.10 and $111.80. Resistance at $118.40 and $120.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Commodity markets are very volatile. If one trades against the trend, all his stop losses get triggered. However the volatility has followed the medium term technical charts. Sometimes short term technical charts give reverse trading signals. As and when short covering comes, commodities will gain. The short term technical picture is still negative.
COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
If copper fails to break $404 next week then a fall to $378 and $354 is in the cards. Copper is unfazed by Chile mine worker strike news.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.
A close below $116.20 will result in $114.10 and $111.80. Resistance at $118.40 and $120.20
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, April 24, 2008
SAFE TRADE
GOLD
book profit on sell below 11775-750, fresh sell below 11700 S/L 11720 and T/p 11650-60/close below test 11450 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11915-20 S/L 11930 and T/p 11875-825 upto 11775 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11715-690/11375/ 11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 22800, for the day sell only below 22500 S/L 22590 and T/p 22400/close below test 22000/ 21700-800 atleast in days to come OR sell ard 23040-50 S/L 23075 and T/p 22950/22800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22400/22050/21325-250/ 20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23400/24275/ 26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 4435/4515/4660, for the day buy only abv 4730-40 S/L 4715 and T/p 4760-90 atleast upto 4820 OR sell only below 4640 S/L 4665 and T/p 4610/4585-75/down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 4740 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 351 S/L 349.5 and T/p 353.5/355/close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 339.4-339.8 S/L 339 and T/p 342-45/347, close below 338 & 335.5 down trend again (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/327/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on sell below 11775-750, fresh sell below 11700 S/L 11720 and T/p 11650-60/close below test 11450 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11915-20 S/L 11930 and T/p 11875-825 upto 11775 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11715-690/11375/ 11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on sell below 22800, for the day sell only below 22500 S/L 22590 and T/p 22400/close below test 22000/ 21700-800 atleast in days to come OR sell ard 23040-50 S/L 23075 and T/p 22950/22800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22400/22050/21325-250/ 20150/ 19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23400/24275/ 26100/27500 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
book profit on buy abv 4435/4515/4660, for the day buy only abv 4730-40 S/L 4715 and T/p 4760-90 atleast upto 4820 OR sell only below 4640 S/L 4665 and T/p 4610/4585-75/down rally sharp (now crude need to close above 4740 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 351 S/L 349.5 and T/p 353.5/355/close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 339.4-339.8 S/L 339 and T/p 342-45/347, close below 338 & 335.5 down trend again (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/327/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 897 TEST 885-878 AGAIN
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 123-126 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 120.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 109/107.5 DOWN RALLY TEST 100-102 ATLEAST
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 85 UPTO 82 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 87..5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 96.5-98 TEST 102-103 UPTO 107 ATLEAST(APRIL)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 126/128-29 UPTO 131 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 123.5, AND CLOSE ABOVE 132 SEEN NEW UPRALLY. ONLY CLOSE BELOW 117.5/116.5/114 & 113
# DOWN TREND AGAIN(APRIL)
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11500-400 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11690, AND CLOSE BELOW 11400 ONE MORE DOWN RALLY TEST 11100-11000 ATLEAST... WHILE CLOSE ABV 12300-12400 UPRALLY AGAIN TEST 12700-800 ATLEAST(JUNE)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 24600 UPTO 25000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 24275, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 22700-550 DOWN RALLY AGAIN(MAY)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60/365 UPTO 370 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 355.5, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 335.5/327/310 BEARISH RALLY AGAIN(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 897 TEST 885-878 AGAIN
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 123-126 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 120.5, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 109/107.5 DOWN RALLY TEST 100-102 ATLEAST
ZINC
LIKELY TO TEST 85 UPTO 82 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 87..5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 96.5-98 TEST 102-103 UPTO 107 ATLEAST(APRIL)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 126/128-29 UPTO 131 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 123.5, AND CLOSE ABOVE 132 SEEN NEW UPRALLY. ONLY CLOSE BELOW 117.5/116.5/114 & 113
# DOWN TREND AGAIN(APRIL)
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11500-400 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11690, AND CLOSE BELOW 11400 ONE MORE DOWN RALLY TEST 11100-11000 ATLEAST... WHILE CLOSE ABV 12300-12400 UPRALLY AGAIN TEST 12700-800 ATLEAST(JUNE)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 24600 UPTO 25000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 24275, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 22700-550 DOWN RALLY AGAIN(MAY)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 359-60/365 UPTO 370 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 355.5, ONLY CLOSE BELOW 335.5/327/310 BEARISH RALLY AGAIN(APRIL)
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Major Headlines:
· The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were down 3.2 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 700,000 barrels.
· The DOE also said that refinery use jumped up from 81.4% to 85.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .9% from a year ago while distillate demand was up .5% from a year ago.
* Crude oil was little changed after a government report showed that U.S. oil stockpiles increased and fuel inventories dropped.
* Crude oil declined for the first time in four days on speculation Tuesday 's record near $120 a barrel wasn't justified. Oil reached $119.90 a barrel Tuesday when the U.S. dollar touched an all-time low of $1.6018 to the euro. Unions planning to strike at a 200,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Scotland next week are holding talks with the plant's owners Ineos Group Holdings Plc today after failing to reach agreement yesterday
* Workers are planning to strike from April 27 to 28 at Ineos' Scottish plant, which takes crude from BP Plc's Forties Pipeline System that transfers oil from more than 50 North Sea fields. Oil has also gained because of a supply disruption in Nigeria. Royal Dutch Shell Plc closed 169,000 barrels a day of supply after attacks on a pipeline last week
* Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, would support a lower oil price and doesn't believe the record prices are caused by supply problems, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Energy Liv Monica Stubholt said
* Natural gas in New York advanced amid increased demand as distributors secure supplies to put into storage in competition with industrial users. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York. Gas supplies were depleted to their lowest in almost four years by an extended winter.
* Supplies for the week ended April 11 were 1.261 trillion cubic feet, putting `working gas within the five-year historical'' range for this time of year, the department said in an April 17 report. Inventory fell to 1.234 trillion cubic feet on April 4, the lowest since May 2004, after rising to a record 3.545 trillion in November.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4736 levels. If market breaches 4736, may see prices to take further upside towards 4765 and 4813, However if it holds back below 4659 and may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4611 and 4580
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4610 Target 4675 and 4730 Stop loss 4570
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.3 levels. If market breaches 442.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 447.7 and 457.3 however if it holds back below 427.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 417.7 and 412.3
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 432 Target 439and 442 Stop loss at 427
MCXARUN
9994500540
· The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels. Supplies of gasoline were down 3.2 million barrels and heating oil supplies were up 700,000 barrels.
· The DOE also said that refinery use jumped up from 81.4% to 85.6% of capacity last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up .9% from a year ago while distillate demand was up .5% from a year ago.
* Crude oil was little changed after a government report showed that U.S. oil stockpiles increased and fuel inventories dropped.
* Crude oil declined for the first time in four days on speculation Tuesday 's record near $120 a barrel wasn't justified. Oil reached $119.90 a barrel Tuesday when the U.S. dollar touched an all-time low of $1.6018 to the euro. Unions planning to strike at a 200,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Scotland next week are holding talks with the plant's owners Ineos Group Holdings Plc today after failing to reach agreement yesterday
* Workers are planning to strike from April 27 to 28 at Ineos' Scottish plant, which takes crude from BP Plc's Forties Pipeline System that transfers oil from more than 50 North Sea fields. Oil has also gained because of a supply disruption in Nigeria. Royal Dutch Shell Plc closed 169,000 barrels a day of supply after attacks on a pipeline last week
* Norway, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, would support a lower oil price and doesn't believe the record prices are caused by supply problems, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Energy Liv Monica Stubholt said
* Natural gas in New York advanced amid increased demand as distributors secure supplies to put into storage in competition with industrial users. On an energy equivalency basis, oil used to heat buildings and run power plants traded at a premium to gas in New York. Gas supplies were depleted to their lowest in almost four years by an extended winter.
* Supplies for the week ended April 11 were 1.261 trillion cubic feet, putting `working gas within the five-year historical'' range for this time of year, the department said in an April 17 report. Inventory fell to 1.234 trillion cubic feet on April 4, the lowest since May 2004, after rising to a record 3.545 trillion in November.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4736 levels. If market breaches 4736, may see prices to take further upside towards 4765 and 4813, However if it holds back below 4659 and may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4611 and 4580
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4610 Target 4675 and 4730 Stop loss 4570
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.3 levels. If market breaches 442.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 447.7 and 457.3 however if it holds back below 427.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 417.7 and 412.3
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 432 Target 439and 442 Stop loss at 427
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Major Economic Data:
- Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.
- An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is steady to lower.
- Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.
Copper
- Comex/Lme copper is on the defensive amid apparent fund profit taking, Funds have shown an inclination to book profits in copper. MCX Copper dropped towards the low of 342.10 following movement at LME.
- Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1250 MT to 112475 MT
- The metal also fell after a leader of striking workers at Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said government-mediated meetings with the state-owned company may resume today.
- The walkout has disrupted output at three mines. Codelco resumed operations at its second largest mine, El Teniente, late yesterday, and said today that it remains open.
- Demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation declined today as the dollar rebounded from a record low against the euro.
- Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, rose to the highest in three months in Hong Kong trading after it posted a higher profit and copper traded near a record.
- China's copper imports may drop further this month after declining 19 percent in the first quarter, a Bloomberg survey shows. The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, has more than tripled in the past four years as China used the metal to
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.
- China imported 390,735 metric tons of refined copper in the first quarter, 19 percent less than a year earlier, the Asian nation's customs office said yesterday. China took delivery of 126,421 tons last month, down 7.2 percent from February.
- Imports may drop between 10,000 and 25,000 tons this month from March, according to 15 traders and analysts in China surveyed by Bloomberg News. China accounted for about 24 percent of global demand last year, according to Citigroup Inc.
- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects to produce 4.2 billion pounds of the metal this year, less than the 4.3 billion the company forecast in January. Phoenix-based Freeport, in its earnings statement today, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.
- Tin rose to a record for a third straight day in London as stockpiles fell to a 2 1/2-year low on greater demand from China, the world's largest user and producer.
MCX Copper April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 348.5 levels. If market breaches 348.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 353.6 and 356.8, however if it holds back below 340.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 337.1 and 332.0
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 346-345 Target 351 and 354 Stop loss at 342.50
Nickel
- MCX Nickel traded lower towards 1136 following other base metals at LME. All base metals traded weak and dipped almost by 2%.
- Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –360 MT to 115640 MT
- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said third-quarter iron ore output rose 22 percent to a record, bolstering its hostile $170 billion bid for Rio Tinto Group.
- Production of the steelmaking raw material rose to 28 million metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 23 million tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said today in a statement. London-based Rio last week reported a 16 percent gain.
MCX Nickel April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1135.0 if market breaches below 1135.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1123 and 1110. However if it holds back above 1160 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1173 and 1185
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1155 Target 1135 and 1120 Stop loss at 1167
Zinc
- MCX Zinc traded lower following other metals, market was down by almost 1.5%.
- Zinc production from its Rosebery and Century mines rose to 146,278 metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 142,525 tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based Zinifex said today in a statement. Lead output fell 14 percent to 12,974 tons, it said.
- Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –800 MT to 129625 MT
- The zinc market may be in surplus ``for the next few years with supplies from mines estimated to gain 7.5 percent a year for the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said in an April 7 report.
MCX Zinc April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.4 If market breaches below 87.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.0 and 84.4, However if it holds back above 90.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 91.9 and 93.3
Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Sell at 90.20-90.80 Target 86 and 84.80 Stop loss at 91.90
Aluminium
- Aluminium remains strong despite other metals dropped. MCX Aluminium traded towards the high of 123.20
- Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country's largest producer of the metal, said its first-quarter sales price for the metal fell 6.5 percent from a year earlier.
- Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –25 MT to 1026950 MT
MCX Aluminium April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123.3 levels. If market breaches 123.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.6 and 126.0, however if it holds back below 120.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 119.2 and 117.9
Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115
Lead
- MCX Lead April dipped towards the low of 110.30 following other metals and energy at LME and Comex. While Lme inventory data helped the bearish movement.
- Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 725 MT to 53650 MT
MCX Lead April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.2 If market breaches below 110.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 108.9 and 107.5, However if it holds back above 113.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 114.4 and 115.7
Recommendations -MCX Lead April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115
MCXARUN
9994500540
- Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.
- An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is steady to lower.
- Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.
Copper
- Comex/Lme copper is on the defensive amid apparent fund profit taking, Funds have shown an inclination to book profits in copper. MCX Copper dropped towards the low of 342.10 following movement at LME.
- Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1250 MT to 112475 MT
- The metal also fell after a leader of striking workers at Chile's Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, said government-mediated meetings with the state-owned company may resume today.
- The walkout has disrupted output at three mines. Codelco resumed operations at its second largest mine, El Teniente, late yesterday, and said today that it remains open.
- Demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation declined today as the dollar rebounded from a record low against the euro.
- Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second- biggest smelter of the metal, rose to the highest in three months in Hong Kong trading after it posted a higher profit and copper traded near a record.
- China's copper imports may drop further this month after declining 19 percent in the first quarter, a Bloomberg survey shows. The price of copper, used in pipes and wires, has more than tripled in the past four years as China used the metal to
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.
build homes, cars, power grids and other infrastructure.
- China imported 390,735 metric tons of refined copper in the first quarter, 19 percent less than a year earlier, the Asian nation's customs office said yesterday. China took delivery of 126,421 tons last month, down 7.2 percent from February.
- Imports may drop between 10,000 and 25,000 tons this month from March, according to 15 traders and analysts in China surveyed by Bloomberg News. China accounted for about 24 percent of global demand last year, according to Citigroup Inc.
- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects to produce 4.2 billion pounds of the metal this year, less than the 4.3 billion the company forecast in January. Phoenix-based Freeport, in its earnings statement today, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.
- Tin rose to a record for a third straight day in London as stockpiles fell to a 2 1/2-year low on greater demand from China, the world's largest user and producer.
MCX Copper April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 348.5 levels. If market breaches 348.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 353.6 and 356.8, however if it holds back below 340.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 337.1 and 332.0
Recommendations -MCX Copper April: Buy at 346-345 Target 351 and 354 Stop loss at 342.50
Nickel
- MCX Nickel traded lower towards 1136 following other base metals at LME. All base metals traded weak and dipped almost by 2%.
- Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –360 MT to 115640 MT
- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said third-quarter iron ore output rose 22 percent to a record, bolstering its hostile $170 billion bid for Rio Tinto Group.
- Production of the steelmaking raw material rose to 28 million metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 23 million tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based BHP said today in a statement. London-based Rio last week reported a 16 percent gain.
MCX Nickel April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1135.0 if market breaches below 1135.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1123 and 1110. However if it holds back above 1160 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1173 and 1185
Recommendations: MCX Nickel April: Sell at 1155 Target 1135 and 1120 Stop loss at 1167
Zinc
- MCX Zinc traded lower following other metals, market was down by almost 1.5%.
- Zinc production from its Rosebery and Century mines rose to 146,278 metric tons in the three months ended March 31, from 142,525 tons a year earlier, Melbourne-based Zinifex said today in a statement. Lead output fell 14 percent to 12,974 tons, it said.
- Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –800 MT to 129625 MT
- The zinc market may be in surplus ``for the next few years with supplies from mines estimated to gain 7.5 percent a year for the next two years, Citigroup Inc. said in an April 7 report.
MCX Zinc April - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 87.4 If market breaches below 87.4 may see prices to take further correction towards 86.0 and 84.4, However if it holds back above 90.3 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 91.9 and 93.3
Recommendations -MCX Zinc April: Sell at 90.20-90.80 Target 86 and 84.80 Stop loss at 91.90
Aluminium
- Aluminium remains strong despite other metals dropped. MCX Aluminium traded towards the high of 123.20
- Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd., the country's largest producer of the metal, said its first-quarter sales price for the metal fell 6.5 percent from a year earlier.
- Alum warehouse stock at LME, net change was –25 MT to 1026950 MT
MCX Aluminium April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 123.3 levels. If market breaches 123.3 may see prices to take further upside towards 124.6 and 126.0, however if it holds back below 120.6 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 119.2 and 117.9
Recommendations -MCX Aluminium April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115
Lead
- MCX Lead April dipped towards the low of 110.30 following other metals and energy at LME and Comex. While Lme inventory data helped the bearish movement.
- Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 725 MT to 53650 MT
MCX Lead April -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.2 If market breaches below 110.2 may see prices to take further correction towards 108.9 and 107.5, However if it holds back above 113.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 114.4 and 115.7
Recommendations -MCX Lead April: Buy at 119-118 Target 123 and 125 Stop loss at 115
MCXARUN
9994500540
Bullion intraday
Bullion Apr 24, 2008
Major Headlines:
Gold fell after energy costs declined and the euro eased from a record against the dollar, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also dropped.
* Platinum group metals have sold off along with gold as oil and the euro have declined, and Participants liquidated positions in "dollar-rebound-driven" profit taking that may have also had to do with April coming to an end. "May be some month-end book-squaring going on," the floor trader says in Comex division.
* UBS AG said gold would trade at $850 an ounce in three months, down from a forecast of $1,000. Gold hit a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when the euro and crude set previous records
* Gold's price declines may be related to the metal's underperformance compared with record highs in the euro and oil set Tuesday, and Gold investors have also been disappointed by a large physical off take out of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund
* Assets in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, declined to their lowest in a month. Gold held by the company fell 18.7 metric tons to 623.41 tons, the first change since April 9, according to figures on the StreetTracks Web site.
* Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.
* Silver futures for May delivery dropped 52.4 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $17.10 an ounce. Before yesterday, the metal climbed 19 percent this year. Silver, which has wider industrial applications than gold, has tumbled 5.2 percent in the past five sessions. The price may drop to $15.50 over the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, said in a report on April 17.
Currency Update:
· Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.
· An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is lower.
· Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11615. If market breaches below 11615, may see prices to take further correction towards 11496 and 11340.However if it holds back above 11890, May see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12046 and 12165
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11800 Target11710 and 11620 Stoploss at11870
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22146 If market breaches below 22146 may see prices to take further correction towards 21673 and 21106,However if it holds back above 23186 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at
23753 and 24226
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22790 Target 22600 and 22410 Stop loss at22970
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
Gold fell after energy costs declined and the euro eased from a record against the dollar, eroding the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. Silver also dropped.
* Platinum group metals have sold off along with gold as oil and the euro have declined, and Participants liquidated positions in "dollar-rebound-driven" profit taking that may have also had to do with April coming to an end. "May be some month-end book-squaring going on," the floor trader says in Comex division.
* UBS AG said gold would trade at $850 an ounce in three months, down from a forecast of $1,000. Gold hit a record $1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, when the euro and crude set previous records
* Gold's price declines may be related to the metal's underperformance compared with record highs in the euro and oil set Tuesday, and Gold investors have also been disappointed by a large physical off take out of the world's largest gold exchange-traded fund
* Assets in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, declined to their lowest in a month. Gold held by the company fell 18.7 metric tons to 623.41 tons, the first change since April 9, according to figures on the StreetTracks Web site.
* Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., the world's second-largest copper producer, said it expects a gold output of 1.4 million ounces, up from a forecast of 1.3 million ounces on Jan. 23.
* Silver futures for May delivery dropped 52.4 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $17.10 an ounce. Before yesterday, the metal climbed 19 percent this year. Silver, which has wider industrial applications than gold, has tumbled 5.2 percent in the past five sessions. The price may drop to $15.50 over the next 12 months, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, said in a report on April 17.
Currency Update:
· Statistics Canada reported that retail sales totaled C$35.5 billion in February, down .7% on the month and weaker than expected. The June Canadian dollar is lower after the Bank of Canada reduced the interest rate yesterday from 3.50% to 3.00%.
· An index of industrial new orders for the Euro area 15 was up .6% in February. Also, an index of services increased from 51.6 to 51.8 in March, better than expected. The June euro is lower.
· Australia's Bureau of Statistics said that the consumer price index was up 4.2% in the first quarter from a year ago, increasing expectations for another rise in the interest rate. The June Australian dollar is steady to higher.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 11615. If market breaches below 11615, may see prices to take further correction towards 11496 and 11340.However if it holds back above 11890, May see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 12046 and 12165
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11800 Target11710 and 11620 Stoploss at11870
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 22146 If market breaches below 22146 may see prices to take further correction towards 21673 and 21106,However if it holds back above 23186 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at
23753 and 24226
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22790 Target 22600 and 22410 Stop loss at22970
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4703.BEARISH BELOW 4682
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11783 BEARISH BELOW 11743
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22773 BEARISH BELOW 22690
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 345.80BEARISH BELOW 344.60
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 112.10 BEARISH BELOW 111.50
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1150 BEARISH BELOW 1142
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 89 BEARISH BELOW 88.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11783 BEARISH BELOW 11743
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22773 BEARISH BELOW 22690
COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 345.80BEARISH BELOW 344.60
LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 112.10 BEARISH BELOW 111.50
NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1150 BEARISH BELOW 1142
ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 89 BEARISH BELOW 88.50
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
The continued rise in food prices is resulting is resulting in workers demanding higher salaries. More than 4,000 workers walked off the job at a privately owned shoe factory in Ho Chi Minh City, demanding higher pay to keep pace with rising inflation, a company official said Wednesday. Workers first stopped working last week at the factory in Vietnam's largest city to ask for an increase in their average monthly salary of $53. If food prices continue to rise at the current pace the food/essentials will become the next gold. Higher food prices should reduce the global savings rate and also reduce demand for consumer electronics and other capital goods which we use in our daily lives. For example, an average middle class salary earning person who buys a home appliance throws the same away when it does not work (instead of repairing the same) and buys a new upgraded version of the same. If food costs rise, then the person will go and repair the home appliance instead of buying the same so that he continues to maintain his normal savings rate. There will be a multiplier effect in the long run if food prices continue to rise.
Over the past few years state run investment to ensure higher crop yields has been minimal. Investors were just focused on sources for alternate fuels such as bio diesel, ethanol and the rest. Food and water are something which humans need to survive. If the masses do not get the same, democratic governments will collapse and there will be political hue and cry. Governments are helpless as the current rise in food prices is due to supply constraints. Paper assets may rise but in the long run gold and only gold will replace the paper assets. The long term collapse of paper assets has just begun. Food prices will only rise due to global warming and move towards desertification of key crop growing areas.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Failure of gold to close over $931 (on daily basis) by next week will result in fall to $878.20 and $846.80 in May.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
$115.90 is the trigger point for a sell off. Crude oil has to fall below $115.90 for a sell off else dips will be used as an opportunity to go long.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Over the past few years state run investment to ensure higher crop yields has been minimal. Investors were just focused on sources for alternate fuels such as bio diesel, ethanol and the rest. Food and water are something which humans need to survive. If the masses do not get the same, democratic governments will collapse and there will be political hue and cry. Governments are helpless as the current rise in food prices is due to supply constraints. Paper assets may rise but in the long run gold and only gold will replace the paper assets. The long term collapse of paper assets has just begun. Food prices will only rise due to global warming and move towards desertification of key crop growing areas.
GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE
Failure of gold to close over $931 (on daily basis) by next week will result in fall to $878.20 and $846.80 in May.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
$115.90 is the trigger point for a sell off. Crude oil has to fall below $115.90 for a sell off else dips will be used as an opportunity to go long.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Thursday, April 17, 2008
comex gold intraday
Gold prices rose sharply yesterday, along with a rally in oil prices to record high levels, as the dollar plunged against the major currencies and registering a new historic low against the euro.
International spot gold traded as high as $948.90 and last quoted at $944.70 ($928.00).
Data from the US Commerce Department showed that the housing starts dropped 11.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000 in March.
But on Tuesday, the US Labor Department reported that the wholesale prices had risen 1.1% in March, against the expectations for a 0.4 % increase; while the core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.2%. This had temporarily reduced the expectations of a further immediate cut in interest rates by the Fed.
In data from the US housing sector, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for April was unchanged at 20 as expected, but remained near the all-time low level.
Data from the US Commerce Department on Monday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in March, compared with economists' consensus expectation for a 0.1% decline.
Sentiments in the dollar remain dampened on sustained fears regarding the US Economy, after data showed US consumer confidence sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
The initial jobless claims in the US fell 53,000 to 357,000 in the week ended April 5, as reported by the Labor Department last week. But the four-week average of initial claims rose by 2,500 to 378,250.
Also, continuing jobless claims rose 3,000 to 2.94 million, the highest since July 2004, for the week ending March 29. The four-week moving average of continuing jobless claims increased 36,500 to 2.9 million.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposal to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold from its reserves, which is currently valued at more than $13 billion, weighed on the traders’ sentiments in the bullion.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March gave a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Crude oil May in NYMEX recorded a fresh all-time high of $115.14 a barrel and settled at $114.93 ($113.79).
Oil prices were propelled by supply concerns after a reported decline in Russia’s oil output for the first time in the decade. This was in addition to earlier reports of supply disruptions from Mexico, where bad weather forced the closure of four export terminals, and Nigeria.
The weekly inventory update from US Energy Department showed a surprise decline in the nation’s crude inventories. As per the report, US crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels during the week ended April 11.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $928.40 – $952.40 and closed at $947.80 ($931.00).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 946; bearish below $ 942
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded as high as $948.90 and last quoted at $944.70 ($928.00).
Data from the US Commerce Department showed that the housing starts dropped 11.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 947,000 in March.
But on Tuesday, the US Labor Department reported that the wholesale prices had risen 1.1% in March, against the expectations for a 0.4 % increase; while the core producer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.2%. This had temporarily reduced the expectations of a further immediate cut in interest rates by the Fed.
In data from the US housing sector, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for April was unchanged at 20 as expected, but remained near the all-time low level.
Data from the US Commerce Department on Monday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in March, compared with economists' consensus expectation for a 0.1% decline.
Sentiments in the dollar remain dampened on sustained fears regarding the US Economy, after data showed US consumer confidence sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
The initial jobless claims in the US fell 53,000 to 357,000 in the week ended April 5, as reported by the Labor Department last week. But the four-week average of initial claims rose by 2,500 to 378,250.
Also, continuing jobless claims rose 3,000 to 2.94 million, the highest since July 2004, for the week ending March 29. The four-week moving average of continuing jobless claims increased 36,500 to 2.9 million.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposal to sell 403.3 metric tons of gold from its reserves, which is currently valued at more than $13 billion, weighed on the traders’ sentiments in the bullion.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March gave a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Crude oil May in NYMEX recorded a fresh all-time high of $115.14 a barrel and settled at $114.93 ($113.79).
Oil prices were propelled by supply concerns after a reported decline in Russia’s oil output for the first time in the decade. This was in addition to earlier reports of supply disruptions from Mexico, where bad weather forced the closure of four export terminals, and Nigeria.
The weekly inventory update from US Energy Department showed a surprise decline in the nation’s crude inventories. As per the report, US crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels during the week ended April 11.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $928.40 – $952.40 and closed at $947.80 ($931.00).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 946; bearish below $ 942
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Major Headlines:
· Crude oil Prices touched a record $114.95 after the report showed an unexpected decline in nationwide supplies by 2.36 million barrels to 313.7 million. Most of the drop occurred on the West Coast. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, rose 860,000 barrels to 18.4 million
· Gasoline for May delivery rose 3.66 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $2.9176 a gallon in New York. Futures touched $2.933 today, an intraday record for gasoline to be blended with ethanol, known as RBOB, which began trading in October 2005.
· A slow-down in the U.S. economy has done little to temper enthusiasm for higher crude oil prices. Traders have seen numerous agencies lowered their demand forecasts for crude oil for 2008. That has given OPEC justification for stating numerous times that they will not raise production levels despite the historically high prices
· Crude oil and the euro versus the dollar have moved in lockstep in the past year. The correlation coefficient between the two was 0.957. A reading of 1 indicates they always move in the same direction. There has been a clear and positive correlation between oil and the euro against the dollar over the last couple of years.
· North Sea Oseberg crude oil fell to the lowest in almost three weeks relative to Dated Brent after shipping costs rose to a 16-month high, cutting demand.seberg's premium over the Dated Brent benchmark was at $2.65 a barrel today, compared with $2.75 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
· Natural gas in New York gained on speculation a close above $10.30 per million British thermal units will spur further buying by technical traders. Yesterday was the second day in a week that gas rose above $10.30, the highest in more than two years and a level that's considered a buy signal by some traders who use charts and graphs to make their decisions. Prices have been gaining on a weakening dollar and increasing global demand for commodities
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4465 Target 4510 and 4560 Stop loss 4410
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA.The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 414 Target 419 and 425 Stop loss at 408
MCXARUN
9994500540
· Crude oil Prices touched a record $114.95 after the report showed an unexpected decline in nationwide supplies by 2.36 million barrels to 313.7 million. Most of the drop occurred on the West Coast. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, rose 860,000 barrels to 18.4 million
· Gasoline for May delivery rose 3.66 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $2.9176 a gallon in New York. Futures touched $2.933 today, an intraday record for gasoline to be blended with ethanol, known as RBOB, which began trading in October 2005.
· A slow-down in the U.S. economy has done little to temper enthusiasm for higher crude oil prices. Traders have seen numerous agencies lowered their demand forecasts for crude oil for 2008. That has given OPEC justification for stating numerous times that they will not raise production levels despite the historically high prices
· Crude oil and the euro versus the dollar have moved in lockstep in the past year. The correlation coefficient between the two was 0.957. A reading of 1 indicates they always move in the same direction. There has been a clear and positive correlation between oil and the euro against the dollar over the last couple of years.
· North Sea Oseberg crude oil fell to the lowest in almost three weeks relative to Dated Brent after shipping costs rose to a 16-month high, cutting demand.seberg's premium over the Dated Brent benchmark was at $2.65 a barrel today, compared with $2.75 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
· Natural gas in New York gained on speculation a close above $10.30 per million British thermal units will spur further buying by technical traders. Yesterday was the second day in a week that gas rose above $10.30, the highest in more than two years and a level that's considered a buy signal by some traders who use charts and graphs to make their decisions. Prices have been gaining on a weakening dollar and increasing global demand for commodities
MCX Crude Oil April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Buy at 4465 Target 4510 and 4560 Stop loss 4410
MCX Natural gas April (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is Positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA.The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 414 Target 419 and 425 Stop loss at 408
MCXARUN
9994500540
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