GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

The continued rise in food prices is resulting is resulting in workers demanding higher salaries. More than 4,000 workers walked off the job at a privately owned shoe factory in Ho Chi Minh City, demanding higher pay to keep pace with rising inflation, a company official said Wednesday. Workers first stopped working last week at the factory in Vietnam's largest city to ask for an increase in their average monthly salary of $53. If food prices continue to rise at the current pace the food/essentials will become the next gold. Higher food prices should reduce the global savings rate and also reduce demand for consumer electronics and other capital goods which we use in our daily lives. For example, an average middle class salary earning person who buys a home appliance throws the same away when it does not work (instead of repairing the same) and buys a new upgraded version of the same. If food costs rise, then the person will go and repair the home appliance instead of buying the same so that he continues to maintain his normal savings rate. There will be a multiplier effect in the long run if food prices continue to rise.

Over the past few years state run investment to ensure higher crop yields has been minimal. Investors were just focused on sources for alternate fuels such as bio diesel, ethanol and the rest. Food and water are something which humans need to survive. If the masses do not get the same, democratic governments will collapse and there will be political hue and cry. Governments are helpless as the current rise in food prices is due to supply constraints. Paper assets may rise but in the long run gold and only gold will replace the paper assets. The long term collapse of paper assets has just begun. Food prices will only rise due to global warming and move towards desertification of key crop growing areas.

GOLD -- JUNE FUTURE

Failure of gold to close over $931 (on daily basis) by next week will result in fall to $878.20 and $846.80 in May.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE

$115.90 is the trigger point for a sell off. Crude oil has to fall below $115.90 for a sell off else dips will be used as an opportunity to go long.

MCXARUN
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