energy intraday

MCX Crude oil followed yesterday's trend and moved further down on Thursday. MCX Crude Oil Feb was trading below Rs. 3550 per barrel and registered a low of Rs. 3500 per barrel. Natural Gas also followed the trend.

· Similarly Nymex crude oil lost 2.13% in yesterdays trade and registered a low of $ 89.26 and closed below the mark of $90 per barrel.

· The IEA said in its monthly report that global demand will total 88.2 million barrels in the first quarter of this year, 100,000 barrels a day less than forecast last month, because of milder U.S. weather. Oil fell more than $2 yesterday after an unexpected drop in U.S. retail sales heightened growth concerns.

· The IEA reduced its 2008 forecast for oil demand growth in China, the fastest-growing consumer, by 100,000 barrels a day to 7.9 million barrels a day because of weaker fuel oil consumption.

· A U.S. Energy Department report due later today will probably show that crude-oil inventories rose 1.25 million barrels last week, from 282.8 million barrels, as refineries took delivery of imports that were delayed to trim tax bills, a Bloomberg News survey indicated.

· Discussions between President Bush and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in Riyadh have created ``hope that OPEC would authorize an increase in production,'' White House spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets Feb. 1.

· Purchases at gasoline service stations in the U.S. dropped 1.7 percent in December, contributing to the 0.4 percent decline for all retailers, Commerce Department data showed yesterday.

Weekly Inventory Data:

· The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said that crude oil supplies were up 4.3 million barrels last week to 287.1 million barrels, helped by increased imports. Supplies of gasoline were up 2.2 million barrels while heating oil supplies were up 200,000 barrels. Also, 1.6 million barrels of crude oil were added to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. March crude oil is trading lower.

· The DOE also said that refinery use dropped from 91.3% to 87.1% last week. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 1.2% from a year ago while distillate demand was up 2.1% from a year ago.


MCX Crude Oil Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive. The 9-day

Recommendations:

MCX Crude Oil Feb: Sell at 3555-3560 for target of 3505 and 3480 with stop loss below 3690

MCX Natural gas Feb (Daily Chart)



Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies have turned bullish; will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are increasing from over sold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 18-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations:

MCX Natural Gas Feb: Buy at 315-313 for the target of 321 and 329 with stop loss at 309

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