Bullion
07 May 2008 10:07:06
Gold rose for a third consecutive trading session as crude oil gained, spurring investors to buy the metal as a hedge against inflation. Platinum and silver also advanced.
Dollar weakness has encouraged some investors to buy into hard commodities of late, in a bid to hedge against weakness in the U.S. currency and rising inflation
ECB Says Gold And Gold Receivables Remained Unchanged In Week
The bargain hunters among precious metals traders surely came out of the woodwork yesterday, a welcome sign after the beatings absorbed last week. And all last month, for that matter, as gold fell by 6.1% in April, the biggest monthly drop in four years.
It was also a very supportive week on the part of the usual suspects, surging energy prices and a dollar that has begun collapsing again after its strength in the wake of the latest round of interest rate cuts
Crude oil traded at a record $122 a barrel in New York today and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the fuel might reach $150 to $200 within two years. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet yesterday said he saw significant global inflation risks because of higher commodity prices
These are rich times for many gold miners. Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold producer, said that it earned $514 million in the first quarter, up from a $159 million loss a year ago. They also said that they expect to produce around 7.8 million ounces this year at a cash cost of roughly $400 per ounce.
On the other hand, the world's third largest gold producer, AngloGold Ashanti, posted a loss in the first quarter because much of its gold sales were hedged at a lower price
The downward pressure on new gold supply is still there. People aren't producing the gold that you would expect at these gold prices. Fundamentally, there's good support for the gold price.’ On gold averaging $900 an ounce this year, said Mark Bristow, chief executive officer of Randgold Resources Ltd.,
Investment in the StreetTracks Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, has dropped 13 percent to 580.4 metric tons from a record 663.8 tons on March 17
U.S. Economy:
More than half of the banks surveyed by the Fed said they had tightened commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, residential mortgages, and home-equity lines of credit. Almost no banks eased credit terms for any type of loan, the Fed said in its quarterly senior loan officer survey
Currencies update:
An index of services in the U.K. fell from 52.1 to 50.4 in April, weaker than expected.
The Reserve Bank of Australia met and kept its interest rate unchanged at 7.25%, saying that there is evidence that domestic demand is slowing.
Canada issued C$5.6 billion of building permits in March, down 4.5% on the month
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 11672 levels. If market breaches 11672 may see prices to take further upside towards 11754 and 11859 however if it holds back below11485 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11380 and 11298
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy at 11540 Target11690 and 11760 Stoploss at11490
MCX Silver July
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 22835 levels. If market breaches 22835 may see prices to take further upside towards 23019 and 23247 however if it holds back below 22423 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22195 and 22011
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22520 Target 22710 and 22850 Stop loss at 22370
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Copper shocked everybody as comex July futures rose to a record high of $427 just after the comex open and then crashed after mine workers at codelco mines agreed to end the 20 day strike. London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed yesterday else copper would have easily crossed the $9000 mark. The US is the hub of global paper trade while London is the hub of physical trade. Prices are never sustainable unless it is backed by adequate physical demand. We have seen this with gold, silver and some other base metals. Crude oil prices are firm despite greater investment demand as it is also backed by physical demand. Copper will find buyers on dips as long as LME (3 months) holds $8000.
Momentum traders were caught in the whirl pool of copper’s rise. One of my clients was short in comex copper around $396, the sudden rise scared the wits of him and he reversed his trade at $421 only to exit at $408. This person made a double loss while trading. Whenever prices reach a new historical level one needs to check the sustainability of the rise. One should wait and if prices stabilize then go long else go short. Stop losses are useless. One needs to keep in mind the stop loss prices before the trade is done but exit at market prices. Stop losses are bound to get triggered if one put it on the trading screen.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Yesterday's rise to $427 was fake. For the day as long as copper holds $382 and $369 downside will be limited and copper can target $404 and $412.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
A break of $120.60 will result in $121.60 and $125.20. On the lower side only a consolidated fall below $116.20 will result in $113.20.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee has been consolidating in 40.44-40.77 wider range and should break out from this range soon. In the short run unless the rupee breaks 40.88-41.00 zone, the rupee will continue to find sellers on the rise. I have been asked whether the rupee has bottomed out at 39.25. The Rupee has room for more gains in the medium term, but the pace of gains will be slower than 2007. Crude oil prices and the performance of global equities will be the key for the rupee in the medium term. If crude oil continues to rise and global stock markets shag in the medium term, the rupee may reverse the direction from bullish to bearish. Average volatility will be around twenty paise in the next few weeks. Key intra day supports are 40.28 and 40.42 while resistance is at 40.73 and 40.88.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Momentum traders were caught in the whirl pool of copper’s rise. One of my clients was short in comex copper around $396, the sudden rise scared the wits of him and he reversed his trade at $421 only to exit at $408. This person made a double loss while trading. Whenever prices reach a new historical level one needs to check the sustainability of the rise. One should wait and if prices stabilize then go long else go short. Stop losses are useless. One needs to keep in mind the stop loss prices before the trade is done but exit at market prices. Stop losses are bound to get triggered if one put it on the trading screen.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE
Yesterday's rise to $427 was fake. For the day as long as copper holds $382 and $369 downside will be limited and copper can target $404 and $412.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE
A break of $120.60 will result in $121.60 and $125.20. On the lower side only a consolidated fall below $116.20 will result in $113.20.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee has been consolidating in 40.44-40.77 wider range and should break out from this range soon. In the short run unless the rupee breaks 40.88-41.00 zone, the rupee will continue to find sellers on the rise. I have been asked whether the rupee has bottomed out at 39.25. The Rupee has room for more gains in the medium term, but the pace of gains will be slower than 2007. Crude oil prices and the performance of global equities will be the key for the rupee in the medium term. If crude oil continues to rise and global stock markets shag in the medium term, the rupee may reverse the direction from bullish to bearish. Average volatility will be around twenty paise in the next few weeks. Key intra day supports are 40.28 and 40.42 while resistance is at 40.73 and 40.88.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
long view calls
GOLD
LIKELY TO TEST 11000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11150, WHILE CLOSE ABV 12300-12400 UPRALLY AGAIN TEST 12700-800 ATLEAST(JUNE)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 320 UPTO 314 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 330-326.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 361.25 UPRALLY TEST 370-375 ATLEAST(JUNE)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 475-480 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 460, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 426.5-423 DOWN RALLY AGAIN TEST 415-10 ATLEAST(MAY)
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-955 TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990-1000 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 15.70/15.40 UPTO $ 15.25 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1100-1085 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1120, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 1190-1215 UPRALLY AGAIN(MAY)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 21000 UPTO 20800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1575-500, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 22825 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(JULY)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 110-108 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 113, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 124 LIKELY TO TEST 128-130 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST 11000 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 11150, WHILE CLOSE ABV 12300-12400 UPRALLY AGAIN TEST 12700-800 ATLEAST(JUNE)
COPPER
LIKELY TO TEST 320 UPTO 314 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 330-326.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 361.25 UPRALLY TEST 370-375 ATLEAST(JUNE)
NAT GAS
LIKELY TO TEST 475-480 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE 460, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 426.5-423 DOWN RALLY AGAIN TEST 415-10 ATLEAST(MAY)
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 830 - 815 UPTO $ 800 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 845, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-955 TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990-1000 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 15.70/15.40 UPTO $ 15.25 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW $ 15.95, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
NICKEL
LIKELY TO TEST 1100-1085 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1120, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 1190-1215 UPRALLY AGAIN(MAY)
SILVER
LIKELY TO TEST 21000 UPTO 20800 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 1575-500, ONLY CLOSE ABOVE 22825 SOME UPSIDE AGAIN(JULY)
ALUMINUM
LIKELY TO TEST 110-108 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 113, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 124 LIKELY TO TEST 128-130 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
safe trade calls
GOLD
book profit on buy abv 11375, for the day buy only abv 11525 S/L 11510 and T/p 11550/600/11650 where good resist seen again OR sell below 11360-330 S/L 11380 and T/p 11300-250/11200-11150/100 upto 11025 (any time close above 11650/12000/12300-400/13100/ 13425 bullish while close below 11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 22200, for the day buy only abv 22550 S/L 22475 and T/p 22600-650/750-800 where good resist seen again OR sell below 22250-240 S/L 22310 and T/p 22150/22050/ sustain below test 21950/21800/21725-650/21575/down rally (any time close below 21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 22825/ 23600/24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4875 S/L 4855 and T/p 4900-4930 atleast upto 4970 OR buy ard 4755-62 S/L 4750 and T/p 4790-4825, only sustain below 4740-4700 down rally again (now crude need to close above 4875 for bullish rally while close below 4695/4475/4365/ 4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 343.5-344, for the day sell only below 342.5 S/L 344 and T/p 341-40/sustain below test 335-332 atleast OR buy only abv 353.5 S/L 351.75 and T/p 356-358.5 where resist seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on buy abv 11375, for the day buy only abv 11525 S/L 11510 and T/p 11550/600/11650 where good resist seen again OR sell below 11360-330 S/L 11380 and T/p 11300-250/11200-11150/100 upto 11025 (any time close above 11650/12000/12300-400/13100/ 13425 bullish while close below 11000-10925 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
book profit on buy abv 22200, for the day buy only abv 22550 S/L 22475 and T/p 22600-650/750-800 where good resist seen again OR sell below 22250-240 S/L 22310 and T/p 22150/22050/ sustain below test 21950/21800/21725-650/21575/down rally (any time close below 21575-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 22825/ 23600/24500/26300/27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4875 S/L 4855 and T/p 4900-4930 atleast upto 4970 OR buy ard 4755-62 S/L 4750 and T/p 4790-4825, only sustain below 4740-4700 down rally again (now crude need to close above 4875 for bullish rally while close below 4695/4475/4365/ 4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
book profit on buy abv 343.5-344, for the day sell only below 342.5 S/L 344 and T/p 341-40/sustain below test 335-332 atleast OR buy only abv 353.5 S/L 351.75 and T/p 356-358.5 where resist seen again (upside strong rally only on close above 361.5 while close below 340/330-326.5/310 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold outlook
Gold prices continued recovery following last week’s sharp losses, supported by a rally in oil prices to a fresh high above $120 a barrel and weakness in the dollar.
International spot gold traded in the range $857.55 - $874.05 and last quoted at $873.05 ($855.45).
Dollar continued to ease despite an unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector. According to data released yesterday, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.
The greenback was affected by the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officer survey, which found Consumers and businesses found it harder to borrow money over the past three months, which indicates that the credit crunch might be still worsening despite the Fed’s grave efforts.
The Fed on Wednesday cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent and signaled that its next move would depend on developments in financial markets and the economy. The Feds signal boosted the optimism of the traders in the currency market. Since mid-September, the US central bank has slashed the fed funds rate target by 3.25 percentage points to shore up an economy.
The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index had descended to 62.3 from an upwardly revised reading of 65.9 in March.
Also the University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
The US Commerce Department had revealed that the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
Oil prices crossed above $120 a barrel yesterday, for the first time ever, as geo-political tensions especially in Nigeria, where a militant attack disrupted oil production in facilities belonging to Anglo-Dutch oil group Royal Dutch Shell, added to supply jitters.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $120.23 and closed at $120.20 ($116.32).
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $864.00 – $875.50 and closed at $875.10 ($858.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 874.80; bearish below $ 870.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
International spot gold traded in the range $857.55 - $874.05 and last quoted at $873.05 ($855.45).
Dollar continued to ease despite an unexpectedly strong data from the US Service sector. According to data released yesterday, the ISM's non-manufacturing index rose to 52.0% in April from 49.6% in March.
The greenback was affected by the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officer survey, which found Consumers and businesses found it harder to borrow money over the past three months, which indicates that the credit crunch might be still worsening despite the Fed’s grave efforts.
The Fed on Wednesday cut its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent and signaled that its next move would depend on developments in financial markets and the economy. The Feds signal boosted the optimism of the traders in the currency market. Since mid-September, the US central bank has slashed the fed funds rate target by 3.25 percentage points to shore up an economy.
The Conference Board’s April consumer confidence index had descended to 62.3 from an upwardly revised reading of 65.9 in March.
Also the University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
The US Commerce Department had revealed that the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
Oil prices crossed above $120 a barrel yesterday, for the first time ever, as geo-political tensions especially in Nigeria, where a militant attack disrupted oil production in facilities belonging to Anglo-Dutch oil group Royal Dutch Shell, added to supply jitters.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $120.23 and closed at $120.20 ($116.32).
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $881; supports are $872, $861, $849, $835, $817, $800; resistances $896, $906, $926.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $864.00 – $875.50 and closed at $875.10 ($858.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 874.80; bearish below $ 870.00
MCXARUN
9994500540
energy intraday
Crude oil prices crept higher Monday following a weekend attack on a Nigerian oil installation, but the strengthening U.S. dollar limited the market's gains. Four months after first hitting triple digits, the price of oil breached $120 a barrel Monday for the first time in a rally of unexpected intensity.
Supply issues in Nigeria and tensions between Iran and the West are at play here, Royal Dutch Shell was forced to shut more of its production in Nigeria after a militant attack on Saturday on a flow station in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.
A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment, a Shell spokesman said. Recent violence has already cut 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Shell production in Nigeria
In the Middle East, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday it would not consider any incentives offered by world powers that violated Tehran nuclear rights, ruling out a key demand that it halt uranium enrichment program.
The comments come just three days after major powers said they would make a new offer to convince the Islamic Republic to halt its nuclear plans, a process which the West believes Tehran wants to master so that it can build nuclear weapons.
Renewed clashes between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq also lent support to oil prices. The Turkish army said on Saturday that it killed more than 150 Kurdish PKK fighters in air strikes in northern Iraq last week, but the rebel group denied this and security forces in the region also expressed scepticism
The dollar eased marginally on Monday, but held on to most of last week's gains, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again to cushion the economy from the credit crisis.
Natural gas futures continued to rise Monday, climbing with higher crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and Midwest over the next two weeks.
The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across the entire upper half of the continental U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, from May 10 to May 14. Colder-than-normal temperatures were also expected in the northern half of the U.S. from May 12 to May 18.
MCX Crude Oil May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4917 levels. If market breaches 4917 may see prices to take further upside towards 4979 and 5087 however if it holds back below 4747 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4639 and 4577
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4820 Target 4895 and 4965 Stop loss 4775
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 457.90 levels. If market breaches 457.90 may see prices to take further upside towards 462.90 and 472.60 however if it holds back below 443.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 433.50 and 428.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 449 Target 457 and 463 Stop loss at 443
MCXARUN
9994500540
Supply issues in Nigeria and tensions between Iran and the West are at play here, Royal Dutch Shell was forced to shut more of its production in Nigeria after a militant attack on Saturday on a flow station in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.
A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment, a Shell spokesman said. Recent violence has already cut 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Shell production in Nigeria
In the Middle East, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday it would not consider any incentives offered by world powers that violated Tehran nuclear rights, ruling out a key demand that it halt uranium enrichment program.
The comments come just three days after major powers said they would make a new offer to convince the Islamic Republic to halt its nuclear plans, a process which the West believes Tehran wants to master so that it can build nuclear weapons.
Renewed clashes between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq also lent support to oil prices. The Turkish army said on Saturday that it killed more than 150 Kurdish PKK fighters in air strikes in northern Iraq last week, but the rebel group denied this and security forces in the region also expressed scepticism
The dollar eased marginally on Monday, but held on to most of last week's gains, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again to cushion the economy from the credit crisis.
Natural gas futures continued to rise Monday, climbing with higher crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and Midwest over the next two weeks.
The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across the entire upper half of the continental U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, from May 10 to May 14. Colder-than-normal temperatures were also expected in the northern half of the U.S. from May 12 to May 18.
MCX Crude Oil May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4917 levels. If market breaches 4917 may see prices to take further upside towards 4979 and 5087 however if it holds back below 4747 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4639 and 4577
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4820 Target 4895 and 4965 Stop loss 4775
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 457.90 levels. If market breaches 457.90 may see prices to take further upside towards 462.90 and 472.60 however if it holds back below 443.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 433.50 and 428.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 449 Target 457 and 463 Stop loss at 443
MCXARUN
9994500540
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