energy intraday

Crude oil prices crept higher Monday following a weekend attack on a Nigerian oil installation, but the strengthening U.S. dollar limited the market's gains. Four months after first hitting triple digits, the price of oil breached $120 a barrel Monday for the first time in a rally of unexpected intensity.

Supply issues in Nigeria and tensions between Iran and the West are at play here, Royal Dutch Shell was forced to shut more of its production in Nigeria after a militant attack on Saturday on a flow station in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.

A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment, a Shell spokesman said. Recent violence has already cut 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Shell production in Nigeria

In the Middle East, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday it would not consider any incentives offered by world powers that violated Tehran nuclear rights, ruling out a key demand that it halt uranium enrichment program.

The comments come just three days after major powers said they would make a new offer to convince the Islamic Republic to halt its nuclear plans, a process which the West believes Tehran wants to master so that it can build nuclear weapons.

Renewed clashes between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq also lent support to oil prices. The Turkish army said on Saturday that it killed more than 150 Kurdish PKK fighters in air strikes in northern Iraq last week, but the rebel group denied this and security forces in the region also expressed scepticism

The dollar eased marginally on Monday, but held on to most of last week's gains, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again to cushion the economy from the credit crisis.

Natural gas futures continued to rise Monday, climbing with higher crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and Midwest over the next two weeks.



The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across the entire upper half of the continental U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, from May 10 to May 14. Colder-than-normal temperatures were also expected in the northern half of the U.S. from May 12 to May 18.



MCX Crude Oil May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4917 levels. If market breaches 4917 may see prices to take further upside towards 4979 and 5087 however if it holds back below 4747 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4639 and 4577

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4820 Target 4895 and 4965 Stop loss 4775



MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)

Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 457.90 levels. If market breaches 457.90 may see prices to take further upside towards 462.90 and 472.60 however if it holds back below 443.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 433.50 and 428.50

Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 449 Target 457 and 463 Stop loss at 443

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