MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
energy intraday
Crude oil prices crept higher Monday following a weekend attack on a Nigerian oil installation, but the strengthening U.S. dollar limited the market's gains. Four months after first hitting triple digits, the price of oil breached $120 a barrel Monday for the first time in a rally of unexpected intensity.
Supply issues in Nigeria and tensions between Iran and the West are at play here, Royal Dutch Shell was forced to shut more of its production in Nigeria after a militant attack on Saturday on a flow station in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.
A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment, a Shell spokesman said. Recent violence has already cut 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Shell production in Nigeria
In the Middle East, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday it would not consider any incentives offered by world powers that violated Tehran nuclear rights, ruling out a key demand that it halt uranium enrichment program.
The comments come just three days after major powers said they would make a new offer to convince the Islamic Republic to halt its nuclear plans, a process which the West believes Tehran wants to master so that it can build nuclear weapons.
Renewed clashes between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq also lent support to oil prices. The Turkish army said on Saturday that it killed more than 150 Kurdish PKK fighters in air strikes in northern Iraq last week, but the rebel group denied this and security forces in the region also expressed scepticism
The dollar eased marginally on Monday, but held on to most of last week's gains, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again to cushion the economy from the credit crisis.
Natural gas futures continued to rise Monday, climbing with higher crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and Midwest over the next two weeks.
The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across the entire upper half of the continental U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, from May 10 to May 14. Colder-than-normal temperatures were also expected in the northern half of the U.S. from May 12 to May 18.
MCX Crude Oil May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4917 levels. If market breaches 4917 may see prices to take further upside towards 4979 and 5087 however if it holds back below 4747 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4639 and 4577
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4820 Target 4895 and 4965 Stop loss 4775
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 457.90 levels. If market breaches 457.90 may see prices to take further upside towards 462.90 and 472.60 however if it holds back below 443.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 433.50 and 428.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 449 Target 457 and 463 Stop loss at 443
MCXARUN
9994500540
Supply issues in Nigeria and tensions between Iran and the West are at play here, Royal Dutch Shell was forced to shut more of its production in Nigeria after a militant attack on Saturday on a flow station in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where local militants have stepped up a campaign of violence.
A few oil delivery lines are affected and some oil has spilled into the environment, a Shell spokesman said. Recent violence has already cut 164,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Shell production in Nigeria
In the Middle East, Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday it would not consider any incentives offered by world powers that violated Tehran nuclear rights, ruling out a key demand that it halt uranium enrichment program.
The comments come just three days after major powers said they would make a new offer to convince the Islamic Republic to halt its nuclear plans, a process which the West believes Tehran wants to master so that it can build nuclear weapons.
Renewed clashes between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq also lent support to oil prices. The Turkish army said on Saturday that it killed more than 150 Kurdish PKK fighters in air strikes in northern Iraq last week, but the rebel group denied this and security forces in the region also expressed scepticism
The dollar eased marginally on Monday, but held on to most of last week's gains, supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again to cushion the economy from the credit crisis.
Natural gas futures continued to rise Monday, climbing with higher crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and Midwest over the next two weeks.
The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across the entire upper half of the continental U.S., particularly in the Great Lakes region, from May 10 to May 14. Colder-than-normal temperatures were also expected in the northern half of the U.S. from May 12 to May 18.
MCX Crude Oil May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4917 levels. If market breaches 4917 may see prices to take further upside towards 4979 and 5087 however if it holds back below 4747 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4639 and 4577
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4820 Target 4895 and 4965 Stop loss 4775
MCX Natural gas May (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 457.90 levels. If market breaches 457.90 may see prices to take further upside towards 462.90 and 472.60 however if it holds back below 443.20 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 433.50 and 428.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 449 Target 457 and 463 Stop loss at 443
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intreaday
Copper
Copper soared to a record inNew York, topping $4.26 a pound, as contract workers inChile, the world's largest producer of the metal, extended a strike, disrupting supplies. MCX Copper May traded as high as 361.20 (+6%) on Strike News despite the fact that LME remain closed for the day.
A union atChile's state-owned Codelco said the company's second-largest mine remains closed today. The strike that began on April 16 has disrupted output at three mines.
Before today, copper had jumped 26 percent this year as a slumping dollar boosted demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. Falling copper inventories and labor unrest also spurred concerns that supplies will trail demand.
London Metal Exchange, the world's largest market for industrial metals, was closed today for a public holiday
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 360.8 levels. If market breaches 360.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 371.0 and 380.8, however if it holds back below 340.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 331.1 and 320.9
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346-347 Target 355 and 360 SL 342
Nickel
MCX Nickel traded volatile following movement in Copper, market traded as high as 1180, while LME remain closed for public holiday.
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1180.5 levels. If market breaches 1180.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 1196.5 and 1213.0, however if it holds back below 1148.0 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1131.5 and 1115.5
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1155 Target 1168 and 1182 SL 1139
Zinc
MCX Zinc May traded volatile in tight range of 89.50-92, while Lme remained closed for the day. Market mostly followed Copper, Crude Oil and Gold.
Refined zinc prices may climb by more than 50 percent in the next five years as growth in mine supply slows and leads to a global shortage of the metal used to galvanize steel.
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 91.8 levels. If market breaches 91.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 93.2 and 94.3 however if it holds back below 89.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 88.2 and 86.8
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30 Target 89.60 and 88 Stop loss at 92.40
Lead
Mcx Lead mostly traded up following other base metals, market-traded volatile in range of 103.75 –107 closed with minor gains.
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 103.7 If market breaches below 103.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 102.1 and 100.5, However if it holds back above 107.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 108.6 and 110.2
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 105.20 Target 103 and 102 SL 106.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May traded positive following gains in Copper and Nickel, while LME remained closed for the day on public holiday.
MCX Aluminium May traded in range of 117 – 118.65, closed with minor gains.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 118.8 levels. If market breaches 118.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 119.6 and 120.5, however if it holds back below 117.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 116.3 and 115.5
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 117.80-118 Target 119.50 and 121 SL 117.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper soared to a record inNew York, topping $4.26 a pound, as contract workers inChile, the world's largest producer of the metal, extended a strike, disrupting supplies. MCX Copper May traded as high as 361.20 (+6%) on Strike News despite the fact that LME remain closed for the day.
A union atChile's state-owned Codelco said the company's second-largest mine remains closed today. The strike that began on April 16 has disrupted output at three mines.
Before today, copper had jumped 26 percent this year as a slumping dollar boosted demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. Falling copper inventories and labor unrest also spurred concerns that supplies will trail demand.
London Metal Exchange, the world's largest market for industrial metals, was closed today for a public holiday
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 360.8 levels. If market breaches 360.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 371.0 and 380.8, however if it holds back below 340.9 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 331.1 and 320.9
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Buy at 346-347 Target 355 and 360 SL 342
Nickel
MCX Nickel traded volatile following movement in Copper, market traded as high as 1180, while LME remain closed for public holiday.
MCX Nickel May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 1180.5 levels. If market breaches 1180.5 may see prices to take further upside towards 1196.5 and 1213.0, however if it holds back below 1148.0 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 1131.5 and 1115.5
Recommendations:MCX Nickel May: Buy at 1155 Target 1168 and 1182 SL 1139
Zinc
MCX Zinc May traded volatile in tight range of 89.50-92, while Lme remained closed for the day. Market mostly followed Copper, Crude Oil and Gold.
Refined zinc prices may climb by more than 50 percent in the next five years as growth in mine supply slows and leads to a global shortage of the metal used to galvanize steel.
MCX Zinc May -Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 91.8 levels. If market breaches 91.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 93.2 and 94.3 however if it holds back below 89.3 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 88.2 and 86.8
Recommendations-MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.30 Target 89.60 and 88 Stop loss at 92.40
Lead
Mcx Lead mostly traded up following other base metals, market-traded volatile in range of 103.75 –107 closed with minor gains.
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 103.7 If market breaches below 103.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 102.1 and 100.5, However if it holds back above 107.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 108.6 and 110.2
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 105.20 Target 103 and 102 SL 106.10
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium May traded positive following gains in Copper and Nickel, while LME remained closed for the day on public holiday.
MCX Aluminium May traded in range of 117 – 118.65, closed with minor gains.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 118.8 levels. If market breaches 118.8 may see prices to take further upside towards 119.6 and 120.5, however if it holds back below 117.2 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 116.3 and 115.5
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Buy at 117.80-118 Target 119.50 and 121 SL 117.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
bullion intrday
Gold rose, rebounding from a third straight weekly loss, as the dollar weakened against the euro. And the record oil prices supporting the the bullion prices, the euro rose as much as 0.5 percent after sliding 1.3 percent against the U.S. currency last week
Gold Field's South Deep mine remains closed after nine people died there in an accident on Thursday. Safety inspectors are expected to announce today whether the mine is safe enough to continue operations
Goldcorp Inc., the world's second- largest gold producer by market value, said first-quarter net income raised to $229.5 million, or 32 cents a share.
India's gold imports in April almost halved from a year ago, the seventh month of decline, as high prices curbed demand from jewelers and retail investors in the world's biggest consumer of the precious metal. Purchases totaled 32 metric tons, compared with 62 tons a year ago, according to provisional data compiled by the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd.,
Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest oil producer, increased foreign-currency Reserves rose by $1.46 billion to $20.7 billion last month and the value of gold held by the bank fell by $150.5 million to $1.88 billion in April from a month before, as the metal's price dropped 7.4 percent on international markets
China has 15,000 to 20,000 metric tons of proven underground gold deposits, the world's seventh-biggest, Easily mined deposits total 4,634 tons the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing Hou Huimin, vice chairman of the China Gold Association.
According to reports, China has made breakthrough in mining technology for low-grade ore. At present, China has a complete gold industry chain ranging from exploration, extraction, processing to smelter. Some of the technologies have reached the international advanced level. Over the past 30 years, China has built more than 330 gold mines, mining, with daily ore election reaching 110,000 tons
U.S. Economy:
The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 49.6 to 52.0 in April, stronger than expected
The Federal Reserve announced that it was acting in coordination with the ECB to expand credit and will increase the emergency reserves it offer to banks to $150 billion in May.
Currencies update:
The Canadian dollar rose from a three- week low as the country's commodity exports gained, boosting the currency's appeal.Canada’s dollar strengthened against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies amid gold and crude oil price increases. Commodities account for about half ofCanada's exports.
The Australian andNew Zealand dollars rose as speculation theU.S. economy will avoid a recession bolstered prices for commodities that are key to the nations' export earnings.
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 11520 levels. If market breaches 11520 may see prices to take further upside towards 11585 and 11660 however if it holds back below 11361 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11271 and 11223
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy a t11420 Target11490 and 11560 Stoploss at11370
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 22583 levels. If market breaches 22583 may see prices to take further upside towards 22727 and 22928 however if it holds back below 22238 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22037 and 21893
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22360 Target 22510 and 22650 Stop loss at 22210
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold Field's South Deep mine remains closed after nine people died there in an accident on Thursday. Safety inspectors are expected to announce today whether the mine is safe enough to continue operations
Goldcorp Inc., the world's second- largest gold producer by market value, said first-quarter net income raised to $229.5 million, or 32 cents a share.
India's gold imports in April almost halved from a year ago, the seventh month of decline, as high prices curbed demand from jewelers and retail investors in the world's biggest consumer of the precious metal. Purchases totaled 32 metric tons, compared with 62 tons a year ago, according to provisional data compiled by the Bombay Bullion Association Ltd.,
Kazakhstan, Central Asia's largest oil producer, increased foreign-currency Reserves rose by $1.46 billion to $20.7 billion last month and the value of gold held by the bank fell by $150.5 million to $1.88 billion in April from a month before, as the metal's price dropped 7.4 percent on international markets
China has 15,000 to 20,000 metric tons of proven underground gold deposits, the world's seventh-biggest, Easily mined deposits total 4,634 tons the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing Hou Huimin, vice chairman of the China Gold Association.
According to reports, China has made breakthrough in mining technology for low-grade ore. At present, China has a complete gold industry chain ranging from exploration, extraction, processing to smelter. Some of the technologies have reached the international advanced level. Over the past 30 years, China has built more than 330 gold mines, mining, with daily ore election reaching 110,000 tons
U.S. Economy:
The Institute of Supply Management's U.S. index of services increased from 49.6 to 52.0 in April, stronger than expected
The Federal Reserve announced that it was acting in coordination with the ECB to expand credit and will increase the emergency reserves it offer to banks to $150 billion in May.
Currencies update:
The Canadian dollar rose from a three- week low as the country's commodity exports gained, boosting the currency's appeal.Canada’s dollar strengthened against 10 of the 16 most actively traded currencies amid gold and crude oil price increases. Commodities account for about half ofCanada's exports.
The Australian andNew Zealand dollars rose as speculation theU.S. economy will avoid a recession bolstered prices for commodities that are key to the nations' export earnings.
MCX Gold June (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 11520 levels. If market breaches 11520 may see prices to take further upside towards 11585 and 11660 however if it holds back below 11361 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 11271 and 11223
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Buy a t11420 Target11490 and 11560 Stoploss at11370
MCX Silver July (Daily Chart)
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 22583 levels. If market breaches 22583 may see prices to take further upside towards 22727 and 22928 however if it holds back below 22238 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 22037 and 21893
Recommendations-MCX Silver July: Buy at 22360 Target 22510 and 22650 Stop loss at 22210
MCXARUN
9994500540
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
Gold will be caught between long term investors who continue to invest in dips with a price target of $1100 to $1300 over the next two to three years and short term bears who are trying to ensure that gold tests $800 and then rises. The downside risk for gold is limited to ten percent to twenty percent from the current prices in the next three to six months. Physical demand for gold will continue to rise unless gold has a sustained fall below $800.
Gold is caught between crude oil and the US dollar. Unless the US dollar has sustained gains and the US economy shows stability, gains in the dollar could well be short lived. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains and gold has more room to fall. Ever since the US sub prime crisis began in August 2007, gold has benefited as an alternate investment (apart from being an inflation hedge). If global equities continues to rise some of the investment which moved away from equities into gold will move back into equities. Further soft commodities and energies have given greater returns than gold. These commodities will give competition to gold in search for alternate investments.
If the US economy recovers then crude oil will rise and test $125 in the short term. Asian demand will remain high. Global central banks have been adding liquidity to the money markets; if every thing was okay then they would not add liquidity. Some under reporting is there. Base metals will be volatile as higher copper prices have forced buyers to reduce inventories. Fundamentally zinc has room for more losses but technically at lower prices the risk to return ratio switches in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper has to close below $369 for three to four consecutive days to be in a short term bear phase. LME copper (3 months) has to fall below $7950-$8000 to be in short term bear phase. My contrarian view on copper is that if copper fails to break $410 in May, it will fall to $346 and maybe even $326.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.
Crude oil has to break $120.60 this week else it will fall back to $113.80 and $109.20. A break of $120.60 will result in $125.10.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
Arbitrage in the non deliverable forward (NDF) market has resulted in a weaker rupee. Traders are buying cash selling forward as a hedge. Further there is a greater cash demand for the US dollar due to summer holiday travel. This has resulted in importers covering their short term payables on dips. The current weakness in the rupee will be short lived, once the arbitrage demand is over, the rupee will once again gain to 40.25. Intra day 40.88 is the key resistance support while 40.48 is the key support.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Gold is caught between crude oil and the US dollar. Unless the US dollar has sustained gains and the US economy shows stability, gains in the dollar could well be short lived. Technically the US dollar has room for more gains and gold has more room to fall. Ever since the US sub prime crisis began in August 2007, gold has benefited as an alternate investment (apart from being an inflation hedge). If global equities continues to rise some of the investment which moved away from equities into gold will move back into equities. Further soft commodities and energies have given greater returns than gold. These commodities will give competition to gold in search for alternate investments.
If the US economy recovers then crude oil will rise and test $125 in the short term. Asian demand will remain high. Global central banks have been adding liquidity to the money markets; if every thing was okay then they would not add liquidity. Some under reporting is there. Base metals will be volatile as higher copper prices have forced buyers to reduce inventories. Fundamentally zinc has room for more losses but technically at lower prices the risk to return ratio switches in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper has to close below $369 for three to four consecutive days to be in a short term bear phase. LME copper (3 months) has to fall below $7950-$8000 to be in short term bear phase. My contrarian view on copper is that if copper fails to break $410 in May, it will fall to $346 and maybe even $326.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $115.90.
Crude oil has to break $120.60 this week else it will fall back to $113.80 and $109.20. A break of $120.60 will result in $125.10.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
Arbitrage in the non deliverable forward (NDF) market has resulted in a weaker rupee. Traders are buying cash selling forward as a hedge. Further there is a greater cash demand for the US dollar due to summer holiday travel. This has resulted in importers covering their short term payables on dips. The current weakness in the rupee will be short lived, once the arbitrage demand is over, the rupee will once again gain to 40.25. Intra day 40.88 is the key resistance support while 40.48 is the key support.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
energy intraday
Energy Apr 30, 2008
Expected Weekly EIA Inventory:
Event Survey
Prior-2421K
expect -950K
Major Headlines:
A stronger dollar gave investors another reason to sell crude Tuesday, Commodities such as oil are less effective hedges against inflation when the dollar is gaining ground, and a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive to investors overseas. Analysts believe oil's run from $65 a year ago to a record near $120 Monday has been fuelled in large part by the dollar's protracted decline.
Oil prices plunged as workers at Scotland's biggest refinery returned to work on Tuesday after a recent strike, while expectations for the dollar to strengthen dampened sentiment for commodities across the board.
Crude oil futures fell over $2 a barrel on Tuesday as fears over U.K. supply eased and the dollar strengthened. Workers at Ineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland ended two-day strike, signaling the eventual restart of the 700,000 barrel-a-day North Sea Forties Pipeline System, or FPS.
The Grangemouth strike has come to an end and some people have seen this as a bearish sign, putting the market under pressure, But the fact that it may take a week or more for the oil flow to reach full capacity (has) kept any correction underpinned
The market will also be keeping a close eye on Nigeria, a major supplier of oil to the U.S., where a work slowdown and militant attacks have cut production.
Nigeria is clearly the key problem facing the energy markets right now, and has the potential to reignite the price advance if supply glitches drag on for much longer, or more ominously, if the majors decide to walk away from the country altogether, something they have done on prior occasions
Energy prices fell sharply Tuesday as the market-absorbed data showing demand is falling even as supplies are rising. Gas prices inched higher at the pump, continuing their record-breaking press toward $4 a gallon
Natural gas futures fell Tuesday as private forecasters called for mild, normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast from May through August, indicating gas demand might be flat or lower compared to recent years.
Earthsat and other private forecasters are predicting normal temperatures in the large gas consuming areas of the Midwest and East, based on data over the last 30 years. If anything, this summer is expected to be cooler than the last three in Chicago, New York, Boston and other areas east of the Mississippi, Setree said. Temperatures in the desert Southwest and parts of Texas could rise above normal this summer, according to Earthsat.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4739 levels. If market breaches 4739 may see prices to take further upside towards 4802and 4851 however if it holds back below 4627 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4578 and 4515
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Sell at 4730 Target 4645 and 4600 Stop loss 4780
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.30 levels. If market breaches 442.30, may see prices to take further upside towards 448.70 and 454.270 However if it holds back below 430.40 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 424.90 and 418.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Sell at 447 Target 440 and 435 Stop loss at 452
MCXARUN
9994500540
Expected Weekly EIA Inventory:
Event Survey
Prior-2421K
expect -950K
Major Headlines:
A stronger dollar gave investors another reason to sell crude Tuesday, Commodities such as oil are less effective hedges against inflation when the dollar is gaining ground, and a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive to investors overseas. Analysts believe oil's run from $65 a year ago to a record near $120 Monday has been fuelled in large part by the dollar's protracted decline.
Oil prices plunged as workers at Scotland's biggest refinery returned to work on Tuesday after a recent strike, while expectations for the dollar to strengthen dampened sentiment for commodities across the board.
Crude oil futures fell over $2 a barrel on Tuesday as fears over U.K. supply eased and the dollar strengthened. Workers at Ineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland ended two-day strike, signaling the eventual restart of the 700,000 barrel-a-day North Sea Forties Pipeline System, or FPS.
The Grangemouth strike has come to an end and some people have seen this as a bearish sign, putting the market under pressure, But the fact that it may take a week or more for the oil flow to reach full capacity (has) kept any correction underpinned
The market will also be keeping a close eye on Nigeria, a major supplier of oil to the U.S., where a work slowdown and militant attacks have cut production.
Nigeria is clearly the key problem facing the energy markets right now, and has the potential to reignite the price advance if supply glitches drag on for much longer, or more ominously, if the majors decide to walk away from the country altogether, something they have done on prior occasions
Energy prices fell sharply Tuesday as the market-absorbed data showing demand is falling even as supplies are rising. Gas prices inched higher at the pump, continuing their record-breaking press toward $4 a gallon
Natural gas futures fell Tuesday as private forecasters called for mild, normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast from May through August, indicating gas demand might be flat or lower compared to recent years.
Earthsat and other private forecasters are predicting normal temperatures in the large gas consuming areas of the Midwest and East, based on data over the last 30 years. If anything, this summer is expected to be cooler than the last three in Chicago, New York, Boston and other areas east of the Mississippi, Setree said. Temperatures in the desert Southwest and parts of Texas could rise above normal this summer, according to Earthsat.
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4739 levels. If market breaches 4739 may see prices to take further upside towards 4802and 4851 however if it holds back below 4627 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4578 and 4515
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Sell at 4730 Target 4645 and 4600 Stop loss 4780
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 442.30 levels. If market breaches 442.30, may see prices to take further upside towards 448.70 and 454.270 However if it holds back below 430.40 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 424.90 and 418.50
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Sell at 447 Target 440 and 435 Stop loss at 452
MCXARUN
9994500540
basemetals intraday
Base Metals April 30, 2008
Major Economic Data:
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.
The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.
Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.
Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349
Nickel
MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182
Zinc
MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT
Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.
Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15
Lead
MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.
South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Economic Data:
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower.
Copper fell after a strengthening dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. MCX Copper June traded bit low near 342.35 and closed with slight loss following tight movement at LME.
The U.S. currency is headed for the first monthly advance this year against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in rate cuts after six reductions since September. Before today, when it rose as much as 0.7 percent, the dollar fell 6.8 percent against the euro this year, helping to spur a 29 percent gain in copper futures.
Copper warehouse stock at LME, net change was -675 MT to 109650 MT
Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, shut its second-biggest mine because of protests by contract workers, a union leader said. Codelco halted operations after protesters threw stones last night at buses carrying Codelco employees to the El Teniente mine in central Chile, Pablo Reyes, a union leader for Codelco workers, said in a telephone interview. Employees may return to the mine later today, he said.
Chile's peso dropped to its lowest in more than a week as the price of copper, the country's biggest export, fell amid a strengthening dollar.
Copper production in Zambia, Africa's biggest producer of the metal, fell 8.8 percent in the first quarter due to flooding, the central bank said. Output declined to 128,593 metric tons in the three months through March, from 141,077 tons in the previous quarter, the Bank of Zambia said in a statement on its Web site yesterday. Production rose from 114,913 tons in the same period a year earlier, it said.
MCX Copper June - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 346.7 levels. If market breaches 346.7 may see prices to take further upside towards 349.1 and 351.2, however if it holds back below 342.1 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 340.0 and 337.6
Recommendations-MCX Copper June: Sell at 345.50-346 Target 341 and 338 SL 349
Nickel
MCX Nickel lost almost 1% following movement at LME and weakness in Bullion, Energy and other base metals supported the movement in Nickel.
Nickel warehouse stock at LME, net change was –66 MT to 51708 MT
MCX Nickel May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 1153.0 If market breaches below 1153.0 may see prices to take further correction towards 1139.5 and 1125.0, However if it holds back above 1181.0 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 1195.5 and 1209.0
Recommendations: MCX Nickel May: Sell at 1170-75 Target 1155 and 1130 SL 1182
Zinc
MCX Zinc lost almost 1.5% following bearish sentiment at international exchanges, while weak ness in metals and energy also supported the movement, though LME inventory data was much supportive for the prices.
Zinc warehouse stock at LME, net change was –1700 MT to 126850 MT
Cia. Minera Antamina, the world's largest combined copper and zinc mine, said zinc output increased by 7.5 percent in the first quarter, magazine Semana Economica reported.
Antamina produced 77.6 million pounds (35.2 million kilograms) of zinc on rising ore grades, the Lima-based weekly said in its April 27 edition. First-quarter copper production was little changed at 74.1 million pounds, it said.
MCX Zinc May - Technical Outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 90.5 If market breaches below 90.5 may see prices to take further correction towards 89.9 and 88.9 However if it holds back above 92.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 93.1 and 93.7
Recommendations- MCX Zinc May: Sell at 91.50 Target 89 and 87.50 Stop loss at 92.15
Lead
MCX Lead may remain almost weak for the day, market registered more then 1.5% loss following movement at LME and inventory data pushed market more down.
Lead warehouse stock at LME, net change was 300 MT to 56150 MT
MCX Lead May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices.. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 110.8 If market breaches below 110.8 may see prices to take further correction towards 109.9 and 109.4, However if it holds back above 112.1 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 112.6 and 113.5
Recommendations –MCX Lead May: Sell at 111.40 Target 109.60 and 108.50 SL 112.30
Aluminium
MCX Aluminium traded in tight range of 118.55 –119.50, movement was less then 1 Rs, thin volume and weakness in other base metals pushed metal down but over movement was in a tight range.
Aluminium warehouse stock at LME, net change was –750 MT to 1042075 MT
National Aluminium Co., India's biggest producer of alumina, said fourth-quarter profit fell 31 percent as a stronger rupee cut the value of overseas sales. Net income fell to 4.09 billion rupees ($101 million) in the three months ended March 31, from 5.91 billion rupees a year earlier.
South Korea's Public Procurement Service, a state-run body that manages strategic commodities, bought 6,000 metric tons of aluminium ingots from LG International Corp. at a tender today The procurement agency bought 3,000 tons of Western high-grade primary aluminum for shipment by June 30 at a premium of $83 a ton over London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices, according to a notice posted on its Web site. The premium covers the costs for shipping and insurance.
MCX Aluminium May -Technical outlook:
The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 118.7 If market breaches below 118.7 may see prices to take further correction towards 118.1 and 117.7, However if it holds back above119.6 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 120.0 and 120.6
Recommendations–MCX Aluminium May: Sell at 119.20 Target 118 and 117 SL 120.80
MCXARUN
9994500540
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