Bullion Apr 30, 2008
Major Headlines:
Indian spot gold closed marginally lower led by overseas cues, and market participants said they expect Gold imports are expected to improve this month and may be at around 40-50 Tones as prices declined to the lows and also as physical buyers who were on the sidelines bought the yellow metal to stock it up before the wedding and festival season
Gold fell to a four-week low as the dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of precious metals and commodities as alternative investments. Silver also declined.
ECB Says One Member Bank Sold Gold Worth Eu18 Mln In last Week and Before yesterday, gold and commodities gained more than 30 percent in the past 12 months, while the dollar slumped 13 percent against the euro
The dollar rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will signal today that it's close to pausing interest-rate cuts. Gold has gained 6.4 percent this year, while the euro has advanced 6.7 percent against the dollar
Anglo Platinum Ltd., the world's biggest producer of the metal, today said first-quarter output fell 24 percent to 428,600 ounces after power cuts affected South African mines. The precious metal, used to make jewelry and devices that cut exhaust emissions from cars, has climbed 28 percent this year.
Gold fell for the first time in three days in London as the dollar strengthened against the Euro, diminishing the metal's appeal as a hedge against further drops in the U.S. currency. Silver and platinum also declined.
Platinum and palladium fell in New York, following gold, after the dollar rose, reducing the appeal of precious metals as an inflation hedge.
The dollar strengthened to a three-week high against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve may signal a pause in interest-rate cuts today after making six reductions since September. Platinum, mostly traded in dollars, rose 33 percent last year as the dollar fell 9.5 percent against the euro
Interest in gold as an alternative asset waned as the dollar rebounded in the past week from its record low against the euro, and oil's climb to as high as $119.93 a barrel yesterday failed to trigger interest in bullion as a hedge against inflation
U.S. Economy:
The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow and is expected to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percent tomorrow. The June U.S. dollar is trading higher as many are wondering if the seven-month campaign of interest rate cuts is about over.
The Conference Board said that its index of consumer confidence fell from 65.9 to 62.3 in April, better than expected, but also the lowest in five years. The March Eurodollars are steady to higher.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index showed that U.S. home prices were down 12.7% in February from a year ago. Three of the twenty cities surveyed did not show a decline
Currency Update:
The Conference Board said that its index of leading indicators for Australia was down .2% in February, to 184.8. Three of the seven indicators showed positive gains. The June Australian dollar is trading lower
The U.S. currency headed for its first monthly advance versus the yen and euro since December as traders increased bets the Fed will stop lowering borrowing costs after a quarter-percentage point reduction today.
MCX Gold June
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at11426 If market breaches below 11426 may see prices to take further correction towards 11372 and11279 however if it holds back above 11573 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 11666 and 11720
Recommendations–MCX Gold June: Sell at11540 Target11430 and 11360 Stoploss at11590
MCX Silver May
Technical Outlook: The daily stochastic have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastic indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.
Market is expected to remain negative and the support is seen at 21979 If market breaches below 21979 may see prices to take further correction towards 21809 and 21566 however if it holds back above 22392 may see prices to rise further on today. Major resistance is seen at 22635 and 22805
Recommendations-MCX Silver May: Sell at 22250 Target 22050 and 21860 Stop loss at 22420
MCXARUN
9994500540
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS
It’s all on the Fed meeting for precious metals and energies. Interest rate expectation has been factored in by the markets. If the Fed wants a stronger US dollar they will signal an interest rate pause. If they want a weaker US dollar they will be hawkish or may not signal an end to the interest rate cuts. A weaker US dollar has boosted the US manufacturing sector in 2008. Job losses in the US are mainly in the financial services sector while the manufacturing sector adds to jobs.
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Copper is expected to remain firm as output from Mexico’s Cananea copper plant has been delayed indefinitely. Strikes in Chile are already continuing. Copper is expected to remain firm and maybe even test new highs. The only negative factor for copper will be liquidation of long positions by fund managers or a technical breakdown. Zinc and Lead have been trading with a softer bias. Zinc and lead should break out from the current trading range sooner. LME zinc (3 month) has to break $2411 till then it will find sellers at higher prices. LME Lead (3 months) has to break $2833 to attract short term investors. Retail investors are long in base metals (in our view). At lower prices in zinc and lead the risk to return ratio moves in favor of the buyer.
COPPER -- JULY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $404.0
Copper will break the $380-$404 wider trading range soon. Inability to edge higher will result in profit taking to $365 and below. LME copper (3 months) has to break $8700-8900 zone else fall to $8058.
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
$116.20 price target achieved. A close below $116.20 on Friday will result in $109.60 next week. Key resistance $121.40.
INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR)
The Rupee weakened to 40.49 against the US dollar yesterday. US dollar demand from state run banks (possibly due to defense related payment) and also demand from a large private sector bank. This demand is not yet over which can result in the rupee opening higher around 40.65. As and when this demand gets over the rupee will once again get stronger. Technically the rupee has to break the 40.82-40.88 zone till then it will find sellers at higher levels. Failure of the rupee to break 40.88 by next week will result in a fall back to 39.90. RBI left interest rate unchanged and instead increased the cash reserve ratio (CRR) in its annual policy meeting. This is just an inflation controlling move and nothing else.
MCXARUN
9994500540
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
SAFE TRADE CALLS
GOLD
book profit on sell below 11775-750/ 11700/11525, for the day sell only below 11550-525 S/L 11570 and T/p 11500-450/11400-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 22400 S/L 22470 and T/p 22300-250/150/22075/down rally OR sell ard 22975-23000 S/L 23025 and T/p 22875-800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22080/21600-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23600/24500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4790 S/L 4775 and T/p 4820-30/4850 OR sell only below 4690 S/L 4710 and T/p 4655-65/ 35 upto 4600, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4790 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 349 S/L 347.75 and T/p 350.5-351/353.5/353.5/355/ close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 338.5-339 S/L 338 and T/p 340.5-342/ 344 (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/ 327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
book profit on sell below 11775-750/ 11700/11525, for the day sell only below 11550-525 S/L 11570 and T/p 11500-450/11400-390/close below test 11000-50 atleast in coming days OR sell ard 11760-70 S/L 11775 and T/p 11700-675/ upto 11600 (any time close above 12000/12300-400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11390/11000 bearish for medium term)
SILVER
for the day sell below 22400 S/L 22470 and T/p 22300-250/150/22075/down rally OR sell ard 22975-23000 S/L 23025 and T/p 22875-800 upto 22700 (any time close below 22080/21600-500/20400/19250/18775 bearish rally while close above 23600/24500/26300/ 27700 bullish for medium term)
CRUDE
for the day buy only abv 4790 S/L 4775 and T/p 4820-30/4850 OR sell only below 4690 S/L 4710 and T/p 4655-65/ 35 upto 4600, anytime close below 4575 most chances to test support levels of 4450-4400 in coming days (now crude need to close above 4790 for bullish rally while close below 4575/ 4470/4365/4260/4080/3960-3905 bearish for medium term)
COPPER
for the day buy only abv 349 S/L 347.75 and T/p 350.5-351/353.5/353.5/355/ close abv 355.5 uprally test 365 atleast upto 370 in coming days OR buy ard 338.5-339 S/L 338 and T/p 340.5-342/ 344 (upside strong rally only on close above 355.5 while close below 335.5/ 327/310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)
MCXARUN
9994500540
long view safe trade
SPOT GOLD INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 877.5-873 TEST 865-50 UPTO 840 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 16 / $ 15.70 UPTO $ 15.40 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 16.30 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 108.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPRALLY TEST 126-128 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
LIKELY TO TEST $ 970-75 UPTO $ 990 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE ABOVE $ 953-55, WHILE CLOSE BELOW 877.5-873 TEST 865-50 UPTO 840 IN COMING DAYS
SPOT SILVER INTERNATIONAL
LIKELY TO $ 16 / $ 15.70 UPTO $ 15.40 WITH ANY BREAK & SUSTAIN CLOSE BELOW $ 16.30 WHILE CLOSE ABOVE $ 18.75 UPRALLY TEST $ 19.25-30 UPTO $ 19.90 IN COMING DAYS
LEAD
LIKELY TO TEST 102-103 UPTO 100 WITH ANY BREAK & CLOSE BELOW 108.5, WHILE CLOSE ABOVE 121 UPRALLY TEST 126-128 ATLEAST
MCXARUN
9994500540
comex gold intraday
Gold Outlook
29 April 2008 10:22:52
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, as rise in oil price to new record high near $120 levels stirred up inflation concerns. Easing of the dollar against the euro also supported the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $885.75 - $895.50 and last quoted at $892.50 ($885.15)
Dollar traded range-bound, with markets awaiting the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The greenback had recovered moderately from the record low levels against the Euro earlier this week, but remained vulnerable due to persisting worries about the US economy.
The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
But according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply by 33,000 to 342,000 for the week ended April 19, against the expectations for a modest rise. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 7,250 to stand at 369,500.
Also, continuing claims fell 65,000 to 2.93 million for the week ended April 12. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million to the highest level since May 2004.
However, weakness in the housing market continued, as sales of new homes fell 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 in March as per the report by US Commerce Department.
The National Association of Realtors had reported a 2 % drop in sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in March, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million.
Also, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 2.4 % for the 12 months ending in February.
Earlier, the unexpectedly weak result from the Bank of America had dampened the investors in the banking sector and also added to concerns about the US economy. Bank of America, the second largest bank in US reported a fall in first-quarter profit due to write-downs and rising credit losses.
US consumer confidence had sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank had left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in their respective latest meetings.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March had given a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Oil prices soared to a new high near $120 a barrel on reported supply disruptions due to strike in a UK refinery, unrest in Nigeria and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $119.93 and settled at $118.83 ($118.52).
The US Energy Department had reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels in the week ending April 18.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $889.40 – $898.00 and closed at $894.10 ($888.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 890
MCXARUN
9994500540
29 April 2008 10:22:52
Gold prices edged higher yesterday, as rise in oil price to new record high near $120 levels stirred up inflation concerns. Easing of the dollar against the euro also supported the bullion.
International spot gold traded in the range $885.75 - $895.50 and last quoted at $892.50 ($885.15)
Dollar traded range-bound, with markets awaiting the interest rate decision from Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
The greenback had recovered moderately from the record low levels against the Euro earlier this week, but remained vulnerable due to persisting worries about the US economy.
The University of Michigan/Reuters' consumer sentiment index declined to 62.6 in April from 69.5 in March.
But according to the release by US Labor Department last week, initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply by 33,000 to 342,000 for the week ended April 19, against the expectations for a modest rise. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 7,250 to stand at 369,500.
Also, continuing claims fell 65,000 to 2.93 million for the week ended April 12. But the four-week average of continuing claims rose 20,500 to 2.96 million to the highest level since May 2004.
However, weakness in the housing market continued, as sales of new homes fell 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 in March as per the report by US Commerce Department.
The National Association of Realtors had reported a 2 % drop in sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums in March, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.93 million.
Also, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, US home prices fell 2.4 % for the 12 months ending in February.
Earlier, the unexpectedly weak result from the Bank of America had dampened the investors in the banking sector and also added to concerns about the US economy. Bank of America, the second largest bank in US reported a fall in first-quarter profit due to write-downs and rising credit losses.
US consumer confidence had sunk to its lowest level in 26 years in early April, according to a report from University of Michigan/Reuters. The US consumer sentiment index fell to 63.2 in early April from 69.5 in March.
In a separate release, the US Commerce Department revealed the nation's trade deficit expanded unexpectedly by 5.7% to $62.3 billion in February.
As expected, the European Central Bank had left the interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in their respective latest meetings.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March had given a downbeat assessment of the US economy, leaving the possibility of further cuts in US interest rates intact. The minutes also showed that many board members believed a recession in the first half of 2008 was likely amid declining economic growth and financial market stress.
Oil prices soared to a new high near $120 a barrel on reported supply disruptions due to strike in a UK refinery, unrest in Nigeria and fresh tensions between the United States and Iran.
Crude oil June in NYMEX traded as high as $119.93 and settled at $118.83 ($118.52).
The US Energy Department had reported Wednesday that US crude inventories rose by a more-than-expected 2.4 million barrels to 316.1 million barrels in the week ending April 18.
OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri had over-ruled an immediate hike in the OPEC oil output. He also played down the chances that OPEC would hold an extraordinary meeting before its next scheduled gathering in September.
Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)
Weak below $952; supports are $928, $908, $888; resistances $969, $990.
Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $889.40 – $898.00 and closed at $894.10 ($888.90).
DGCX Gold June
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)
GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 896; bearish below $ 890
MCXARUN
9994500540
Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)
CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4722BEARISH BELOW 4700
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11627 BEARISH BELOW 11588
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22488 BEARISH BELOW 22400
COPPER (JUNE) BULLISH ABOVE 346.40BEARISH BELOW 345.20
LEAD (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 111.50 BEARISH BELOW 110.80
NICKEL (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 1182 BEARISH BELOW 1175
ZINC (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11627 BEARISH BELOW 11588
SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22488 BEARISH BELOW 22400
COPPER (JUNE) BULLISH ABOVE 346.40BEARISH BELOW 345.20
LEAD (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 111.50 BEARISH BELOW 110.80
NICKEL (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 1182 BEARISH BELOW 1175
ZINC (MAY) BULLISH ABOVE 92.70BEARISH BELOW 92.10
MCXARUN
9994500540
ENERGY INTRADAY
Energy Apr 29, 2008
Major Headlines:
* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.
* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.
* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.
* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro
* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs
* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week
* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across
Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442
MCXARUN
9994500540
Major Headlines:
* Crude approached $120 a barrel after BP Plc shut a North Sea pipeline and as oil workers' strike and rebel attacks cut output from Nigeria. Gold surged 31 percent last year as oil soared 57 percent, spurring the biggest gain in the U.S.inflation rate since 1990.
* Nigeria's main militant group Monday said an attack it made on a Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) oil facility last Thursday knocked out 350,000 barrels a day of production. The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, said in a statement to the media that Nigerian Shell sources had informed it that the Nigerian government didn't want the big production loss figure disclosed.
* Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, already has around 800,000 barrels a day closed because of an oil workers' strike that started Friday and attacks on oil infrastructure over the past two years, most by MEND, have left another roughly 540,000 barrels shuttered.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraints.
* Oil markets are having a major effect on currency markets because of inflation concerns globally. Notable for the dollar, are expectations in Europe. "ECB will view ongoing appreciation in oil as inflationary," That will keep the ECB hawkish and the dollar weaker versus the euro
* Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said Monday he discussed with his Norwegian counterpart cooperation between their two oil-exporting countries to stabilize oil markets as prices hit new highs
* Natural gas futures rose Monday ahead of the May contract expiration, climbing in response to soaring crude oil prices and forecasts of below-normal temperatures in the U.S. Midwest over the next week
* The National Weather Service was predicting below-normal temperatures across
Much of the Midwest from May 3 to May 7 and May 5 to May 11 and an ongoing production shut-in at the Independence Hub, a major U.S. deepwater Gulf of Mexico natural gas platform, were also placing upward pressure on natural gas prices Monday.
* Forecasts of colder-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the next week were also supporting natural gas prices Monday. Sizable withdrawals of gas from storage over the winter have left U.S. natural gas inventories below the five-year average, sparking concerns about possible supply constraint
MCX Crude Oil May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 4787 levels. If market breaches 4787 may see prices to take further upside towards 4815 and 4846 however if it holds back below 4728 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 4697 and 4669
Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil May: Buy at 4690 Target 4765 and 4840 Stop loss 4640
MCX Natural gas May
Technical Outlook:The daily stochastic have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastic indicator is rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 9-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.
Market is expected to remain positive and the resistance is seen at 461.60levels. If market breaches 461.60may see prices to take further upside towards 466.10nd 474.40, however if it holds back below 448.80 may see prices to fall further on today. Major support is seen at 440.50 and 436
Recommendations-MCX Natural Gas May: Buy at 448 Target 456and 460 Stop loss at 442
MCXARUN
9994500540
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