comex gold intraday

Gold prices recovered moderately yesterday following Tuesday’s sharp fall, as the dollar fell against major currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the US economy might contract in the first half of the year. Crude oil futures regaining the bullish momentum also aided the bullion prices.



International spot gold finished $20.4 higher at $903.5 a troy ounce after tossing in the range $905.3 - $881.60.



Gold for June delivery gained $12.40, or 1.4%, to finish at $900.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.



In testimony to Congress, Bernanke said that the outlook for U.S. economic growth has worsened since January and that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out.

Among the economic data released yesterday, the US Commerce Department report showed orders for US-made factory goods for the month of February fell by 1.3%, while shipments dropped 2.1.

The ADP employment report showed that private sector jobs rose by 8,000 in March.

Oil prices in the international markets bounced back after the US energy department said that gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected. However, US crude inventories rose by 7.4 million barrels to 319.2 million barrels in the week ended March 28.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchanger settled at $104.83 a barrel, up $3.85, or 3.8%.

The Dollar had risen sharply in the previous day, supported by Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index that recorded an unexpected rise, to 48.6% in March from 48.3% in February.



The weakness in Euro following an unexpected slump in German retail sales and announcement of write-downs by two of Europe's largest banks also encouraged the sentiments in the greenback.



Swiss banking giant UBS and the Deutsche Bank disclosed a combined $23 billion of write-downs for the first quarter, ahead of their scheduled first-quarter earnings announcements. The move raised concerns about European exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.



According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistics Office, retail sales slid by 1.6 percent in February compared with January, the largest drop in nine months, and by 0.3 percent on an annual basis.



As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.



The report from US Labor Department released on Thursday revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.



Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.



The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $885.70 – $907.20 and closed at $906.60 ($885.70).



DGCX Gold June



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 904; bearish below $ 898

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Technicals – MCX (Intra day calls)

CRUDE OIL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 4097 BEARISH BELOW 4080



GOLD (June) BULLISH ABOVE 11623 BEARISH BELOW 11583



SILVER (May) BULLISH ABOVE 22245 BEARISH BELOW 22155

COPPER (APRIL) BULLISH ABOVE 339.70 BEARISH BELOW 338.60



LEAD (April) BULLISH ABOVE 113.30 BEARISH BELOW 112.70



NICKEL (April) BULLISH ABOVE 1159 BEARISH BELOW 1150



ZINC (April) BULLISH ABOVE 94 BEARISH BELOW 93.40

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GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Bernanke does it again for commodities after he said that the U.S. economy may slip into recession, but said growth should pick up later this year as the impact of interest rate cuts and other emergency steps take root. Nothing special over these comments and that the rise in precious metals and base metals was due to short covering and fresh position building before the March payrolls. Crude oil prices rose sharply after the US inventory numbers. Markets are just searching for an excuse to go long in crude oil and energy prices. It will be volatile trade for the rest of the week in all metals and energies.

March payrolls are expected to be negative 50,000 and if the number comes in lower than expected, chances of a half a percentage interest rate cut will rise and the euro/usd will test 1.60. Precious metals will also rise. The Indian rupee has been volatile against the US dollar following the equity markets. Unless the rupee breaks 40.25 against the US dollar in the short term, the rupee will gain to 39.80 and 39.50. Fridays close will set the direction for the rest of April in all metals and energies.

COPPER -- MAY FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $392.0

Copper has to break $394-$397 for $402 and $409. If copper fails to break $397 then a fall to $379 and $369 is on the cards.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL -- FUTURE -- INTRA DAY PIVOT: $97.60

Crude oil is bullish over $102.60. Still a sell on rise strategy till $110 is not broken.

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outlook

June gold closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to a rising U.S. Dollar and the fading impacts of the sub prime credit crisis. Today's decline led to a close below the 38% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 897.80. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level crossing at 854.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 963.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 897.80. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 939.70. First support is today's low crossing at 876.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 854.30.
May silver closed lower on Tuesday and spiked below the 50% retracement level of the August-March rally crossing at 16.585. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.060 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 17.731 then the 10-day moving average crossing at 17.918. First support is today's low crossing at 16.300 then the 62% retracement level crossing at 15.438.

May copper closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of last week's rally but remains above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 378.50. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends last week's rally, March's high crossing at 402.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 373.17 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 392.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 402.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 378.50. Second support is today's low crossing at 370.90.

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safe trade calls

GOLD

book profit on sell below 12210/11950 in April and sell below 11875-825 in june, for the day sell only below 11450 & more below 11400 S/L 11475 and T/p 11350-325/upto 11250 OR sell ard 11715-25 S/L 11730 and T/p 11675-11620 (any time close above 12175/ 12400/13100/13425 bullish while close below 11375/11000 bearish for medium term)

SILVER

price turn exact from our level 23415, book profit on sell below 22075, for the day sell below 21900 S/L 21990 and T/p 21800-700/upto 21575-550 where good support again OR sell ard 22360-375 S/L 22400 and T/p 22250/150 upto 21950 (any time close below 21325-250/20150/19390/18600-250/17850 bearish rally while close above 23425/ 24000/26100/27500 bullish for medium term)

CRUDE

book profit on sell below 4150/4010, for the day sell below 4000 S/L 4020 and T/p 3985-3960/3935/3910, sustain close below 3960 test 3925-3875 upto 3800 in coming days OR sell ard 4118-20 S/L 4125 and T/p 4100-4060 (now crude need to close above 4260-4315/4460-85 for bullish rally while close below 3960/ 3830/3585/3415-3390 bearish for medium term)

COPPER


book profit on sell below 333-332.5, for the day sell below 333 S/L 334 and T/p 331.75/330.5/328.5/327/sustain below test 324-23 atleast OR buy only abv 339 -340 S/L 338 and T/p 342-343.5/upto 347, sustain close abv 343.5 test 350-351 atleast & close abv 354 seen new rally (upside strong rally only on close above 343.5/354 while close below 327/ 310.5-303/281/267.5/254.5/235 bearish for medium term)

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comex gold intraday

Gold prices plummeted yesterday on selling pressure as the dollar gained strength against the major currencies.



International spot gold traded as low as $872.90 and last quoted at $883.10.



The Dollar’s advance was supported by Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index that recorded an unexpected rise, to 48.6% in March from 48.3% in February.



The weakness in Euro following an unexpected slump in German retail sales and announcement of write-downs by two of Europe's largest banks also encouraged the sentiments in the greenback.



Swiss banking giant UBS and the Deutsche Bank disclosed a combined $23 billion of write-downs for the first quarter, ahead of their scheduled first-quarter earnings announcements. The move raised concerns about European exposure to the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.



According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistics Office, retail sales slid by 1.6 percent in February compared with January, the largest drop in nine months, and by 0.3 percent on an annual basis.



As per the US Commerce Department release on Friday, inflation moderated in February, with consumer prices rising just 0.1% for the month.



The report from US Labor Department released on Thursday revealed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 366,000 in the week ended March 22. However the four-week average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 358,000.



Also continuing claims for benefits fell 5,000, to 2.85 million for the week ended March 15. The four-week average of continuing claims rose 25,250 to 2.82 million.



The US economy grew at 0.6 % annual rate in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department estimate made public on Thursday. This was as per expectations and consistent with the two previous estimates, but the slowest pace since 2002.



Medium term outlook (Spot Gold)

Bullish above $916; Resistances are $926, $932, $947, $954, $973, $984, $995, $1002, $1022, $1035, $1052; supports $896, $883. Further up-trend is expected above $954.60.



Last day DGCX Gold June traded in the range $922.50– $878.00 and closed at $885.70.





DGCX Gold June

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Intra-day)

GOLD (June) - Bullish above $ 886; bearish below $ 880

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energy intraday

Major Headline:

- Oil initially plunged below $100 on a firmer dollar, as investors sold commodities across the board on persistent fears U.S. demand will slow and as worries over Iraqi supply eased. But market bounced back above $101 on small short covering.

- The euro continued to slip against the dollar after figures earlier showed a slump in German retail sales, while market players awaited the release of the latest U.S. ISM manufacturing index this afternoon. A stronger dollar limited the appeal of dollar-priced commodities. Gold and base metals were also down.

- Meanwhile, a weekly U.S. report due tomorrow is expected to show gasoline demand fell and crude stocks rose.

- Iraq's southern oilfields will return to normal production volumes today after losing 150,000 barrels a day over the last three days because of power outages caused by clashes between the army and Shiite militants.

- Exports from the offshore Basra loading terminal in the Persian Gulf were unaffected by the output decline, an oil ministry official said today in a telephone interview from Baghdad. He declined to be identified for security reasons. Crude used for the 150,000 barrel-a-day Basra refinery, which was offline because of the power shortages caused by the fighting, was redirected for exports at the terminal, the official said.

- Fighting erupted in Basra last week between Iraqi forces and militants loyal to Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Oil flows through a 100,000 barrel-a-day pipeline were disrupted on March 27 because of a damage caused by an explosive device. This pipeline will be repaired today, the official said, helping boost output.

- The two main pipelines in the network were unaffected by the explosion and fire. The system typically carries about 1.5 million barrels a day of Iraqi crude to the shipping terminal on the Persian Gulf.

- Iraq exported 80 percent of its oil to international markets from its southern Basra terminal in February, according to data from the Iraqi Oil Ministry's Web site. Basra oil exports averaged 1.54 million barrels a day last month, compared with 1.56 million barrels a day in January.

MCX Crude Oil April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. The stochastics indicators are decreasing from overbought level, which is bearish and should support lower prices. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day EMA. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat positive.

Recommendations-MCX Crude Oil April: Sell at 4065 Target 3980 and 3920 Stop loss 4092

MCX Natural gas April

Technical Outlook:

Momentum studies are bullish but are now at overbought levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. The stochastics indicators are rising from oversold level, which is bullish and should support higher prices. The market's short-term trend is positive as the close remains above the 21-day EMA. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative.

Recommendations- MCX Natural Gas April: Buy at 394 Target 410 and 413 Stop loss 390

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